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Thread: Would Plush have won if the new rules had been applied?

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    Dreaming and dancing Bennett's Avatar
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    Would Plush have won if the new rules had been applied?

    As the men's Oly event was a close competition between Evan and Plush, I wonder if the result would have been different if the new rules had been applied (base value changes, UR rule changes, and GOE factoring changes).

    Here the protocols.

    SP
    http://www.vancouver2010.com/olympic...m010201uH.html

    LP
    http://www.vancouver2010.com/olympic...m010101eh.html

    Even without calculating, I could see that Plush would have earned more points in SP, but LP, not so sure without doing math.
    Last edited by Bennett; 05-13-2010 at 09:06 PM.

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    I saw a number on twitter that said 257 plusheno 255 Lysacek but I don't know how that can be factored because if in the long program the second step sequence is just graded on GOE so I don't know if it will ever be possible to know really. Like when people want to see if Plushenko in 2006 could beat Yagudin in 2002 or if Sarah Hughes would have beaten Kim Yu Na. There is just no way to ever know ever.

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    This is one of those wonderful "what if' thoughts that engage us pleasurably in the off season, but really, no one can tell. Because if Plushenko and Lysacek skated head to head again with new rules, Lysacek would change his program to accommodate those rules. So maybe he would still win...or maybe he would trip, or maybe Plushenko would stumble on his quad. There's no way to know that. Still, it's fun to speculate. Let the games begin!

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    leave no stone unturned seniorita's Avatar
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    Since the new rules, it is on facebook also Plush Evan and Takas new scores, but I hate speculation, I just escaped the asylum of frustration, why to do this to myself again?

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    Banned janetfan's Avatar
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    Plushy would have won if he had executed his jumps better.
    Whether Evan won or a cleaner Plushy would have won - the CoP determined Dai's skating and what he showed on the ice wasn't as good.

    I think the CoP showed that it is not about who shows fans the best and most elegant skating. It is only about who plays the CoP game the best.

    I thouhgt Dai outskated and outperformed Evan and Plushy in Vancouver. It was nice to see him win in Torino.

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    I'm also the one, who wishes a point system, which can give the titel to the best , most attractiv performance.
    In Vancouver it was Daisuke's one. So, all the other speculation is just a part of the History.

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    Dreaming and dancing Bennett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympia View Post
    This is one of those wonderful "what if' thoughts that engage us pleasurably in the off season, but really, no one can tell. Because if Plushenko and Lysacek skated head to head again with new rules, Lysacek would change his program to accommodate those rules. So maybe he would still win...or maybe he would trip, or maybe Plushenko would stumble on his quad. There's no way to know that. Still, it's fun to speculate. Let the games begin!
    Yes, this was what I've meant, the games! I have just begun to learn the whole set of new rules and excited to see so many dramatic changes. I thought it interesting to play them out with the famous performances that led to some controversy about the rules. Sorry if the thread question triggered pains in some fans. It was not meant to be the real, serious "if," but it's just that we can't see the new programs to apply the new rules to until the new season starts in fall.

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    leave no stone unturned seniorita's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bennett View Post
    Yes, this was what I've meant, the games! I have just begun to learn the whole set of new rules and excited to see so many dramatic changes. I thought it interesting to play them out with the famous performances that led to some controversy about the rules. Sorry if the thread question triggered pains in some fans. It was not meant to be the real, serious "if," but it's just that we can't see the new programs to apply the new rules to until the new season starts in fall.
    if it goes for me, I have survived and forgot Vancouver already . To answer your first question the calculations according to cop experts of facebook (new emoticon yey!)

    1. Plushenko - 257.4, 2. Lysacek - 255.9 3. Takahashi - 251.6.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bennett View Post
    As the men's Oly event was a close competition between Evan and Plush, I wonder if the result would have been different if the new rules had been applied (base value changes, UR rule changes, and GOE factoring changes).
    Well, I wonder if Plushenko had gotten even a silver medal, if his PCS in sp & fs would have been judged according to the rules? I also think that his jumps in fs should have had more
    - GOE.

    Unfortunately Takahashi had too many mistakes in fs, but still he would have deserved a silver medal, if Plushenko´s performance had been judged correctly. Takahashi had an excellent CoP-programme, especially compared to Plushenko. A skater who does not understand to have a CoP-programme in a CoP-competition, deserves no mercy, in my opinion.
    Last edited by Jaana; 05-14-2010 at 12:36 PM.

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    Not just Plushenko being judged according to the rules but every top skater. I mean Lysacek got 8's for performance exection! LOL!!

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    Banned janetfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    Not just Plushenko being judged according to the rules but every top skater. I mean Lysacek got 8's for performance exection! LOL!!

    I am sure Plushy will be happy to accept another Gold medal from Facebook.

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    leave no stone unturned seniorita's Avatar
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    I mentioned facebook because this is where it was calculated. If you bother calculate it, I ll mention you next time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jaana View Post
    Well, I wonder if Plushenko had gotten even a silver medal, if his PCS in sp & fs would have been judged according to the rules? I also think that his jumps in fs should have had more
    - GOE.
    "I wonder" if Lysacek should have been first with right pcs and edge call and deduction on 2nd axel. In sp he didn't deserve being so close to either Plush nor Taka and Taka should have been first there. Lysacek should have won just the LP, foolstop. But he was promoted as the 8th wonder of artistic skater with great jumps. You see how easy it is for ALL ubers to wonder? But there is no reason to wonder, it is done now.
    I think it was better when I was quiet.

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    Lest we forget, Dai LP was 8 or 10 points lower than Patrick Chan. Suddenly people with faulty memory thought he was the best in Vancouver? Really?

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    Dreaming and dancing Bennett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seniorita View Post
    if it goes for me, I have survived and forgot Vancouver already . To answer your first question the calculations according to cop experts of facebook (new emoticon yey!)

    1. Plushenko - 257.4, 2. Lysacek - 255.9 3. Takahashi - 251.6.
    Oh, thanks! Anyone knows the breakdowns?

    My intuitive thought was that it's the new GOE factoring, not the quads, that will make the biggest difference between the two (given that both skaters did not have DGed jumps).

    Just looking at the LP protocol, Lysacek's GOEs on 3 jumps except for 3As and on 2A will be reduced from 5.2 to 3.48. Plush's for those elements will be reduced from 3 to 1.9. So the score difference in these elements will be reduced from 2.20 to 1.59. Not as big as I imagined (I could be miscalculating though; it's very late at night here). But their scores were so close in the first place that such small changes may change the overall results.

    Perhaps Oda and Yuna who get the biggest GOEs from triple jumps and 2A may be affected more by the new system (the relative impact of GOEs to the overall scores of these jumps will reduce).
    Last edited by Bennett; 05-15-2010 at 11:40 AM.

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    If the new rules were in place, Ilia Kulik's performance would have scored higher than Peggy Flemming's.

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