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Thread: Ilinykh and Katsalapov: The goal is Sotchi

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lucky Star View Post
    This young team got higher scores at Junior Worlds than Bobrova/Soloviev at Worlds, their scores for the OD were higher than Knokhlova/Novitski's. I think it means a lot. They have all the chances not only make the top 2 at Nationals, but even win, beat B/S and K/A and become #1 Russian team. It will all depend on their consistancy and new programs
    Such comparison of scores is no better than tea leaf reading. It's utterly meaningless.

  2. #17
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    Since you want to set such a difficult goal, please forgive me for being demanding.
    Did they set a goal to win gold in Sochi?

    He is going to be 19 this year and only 1 year younger than Scott Moir when he and his partner, Tessa Virtue won Free Dance at the 2008 Worlds. Watch Scott Moir in this clip:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBVli...ext=1&index=15
    Let's talk about it when I/K at least have any experience in senior competitions.

    As for your assumption that expression and chemistry necessarily improves over time, that's false.
    Not necessarily but for this couple it can easily be true. I see a lot of potential in Nikita on this point.

    Here is a clip from Virtue/Moir when they were 14/16 or about two years younger than I/K : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W02hROo1cXI
    I don't see anything in V/M's skating what would have been obviously better than I/K. But I clearly see in what things I/K are superior.
    Last edited by Fashionista; 05-31-2010 at 02:15 PM.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fashionista View Post
    Did they set a goal to win gold in Sochi?
    Well, some people seem to have set it for them already:

    Quote Originally Posted by Fashionista View Post

    I don't see anything in V/M's skating what would have been obviously better than I/K. But I clearly see in what things I/K are superior.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tinymavy15 View Post
    They are fantastic. They have amazing leg line, speed and connection. It seems like they are right on track for a Gold in Sochi,
    You said you see things that I/K are already superior to V/M, the current World and Olympic Champions even though I/K failed to even win their own Junior Nationals. Care to justify such exuberance? In what ways do you feel that I/K are already superior to V/M? Doesn't that imply and contradict your own question - regardless whether they have publicly stated their goal is Gold in Sochi or not, you have already implied it for them by suggesting they are a comparable / superior to the current World and Olympic Champions in Ice Dance.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fashionista View Post
    Let's talk about it when I/K at least have any experience in senior competitions.
    Excellent suggestion, then I am sure you'd agree it would be wise to cut down on the overly speculative prediction and extrapolation or greatly exaggerated inferences (e.g. superior to the current World and Olympic Champions) based on the results of a single competition for now.
    Last edited by wallylutz; 05-31-2010 at 02:37 PM.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    Of course, I/K didn't win their own Russian Junior Nationals. Hell, you could point out that B/A outpointed D/W in 2009, but the reverse happened in 2010.

    I think what startles me is not so much that people think they have potential,, but the apparent unanimity in that THEY will be the ones to beat in Sochi. Most people recognize that making predictions this early is a mug's game but it seems like so many already believe this narrative to be true based on what happened last time: Two talented junior teams make the leap to seniors, have a meteoric rise and one wins gold at the next Olympics. And that ignores all the things that allowed V/M and D/W to rise as they did beyond the sheer scope of their talents.
    You might be right about predicting too much too soon, but I can say that this couple impressed me more than V/M or D/W (or any junior dance team) had ever done. Technical skills aside, their maturity and expression are completely beyond their years. Their OD is probably my favourite of the season. I find it so good that I actually worry if they will be able to top the dance next season.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by shine View Post
    You might be right about predicting too much too soon, but I can say that this couple impressed me more than V/M or D/W (or any junior dance team) had ever done. Technical skills aside, their maturity and expression are completely beyond their years. Their OD is probably my favourite of the season. I find it so good that I actually worry if they will be able to top the dance next season.
    I guess I can't argue then. But I find their FD to be a gimmicky, excessive piece that completely misses the sorrow of the story.

    But what bugs me is not so much that people think they could win gold in Sochi. Anything is possible. We're dealing with a Russian Federation that wants results after a poor Olympics, a Home Games and an exceptionally high level of talent on the junior stage.

    But lets look on the other hand. D/W and V/M are teams who entered their senior careers with two seasons of experience on COP and only junior (or lesser) experience with 6.0. That gave them an advantage over many of teams competitive at that time (indeed, it's worth mentioning that D/W were the first team to score all level fours for a FD at NHK 2006, and V/M were the only team to score all level fours at Worlds 2007). I/K don't have that advantage as a full COP quad has passed and every successful team has achieved programs with all level fours (almost all, no need for counter examples).

    D/W and V/M had the benefit of retirements at the top with Navka and Kostamorov leaving before their first senior season and Denkova/Staviski and Dubreuil/Lauzon leaving a couple seasons later. V/M might retire, D/W probably won't. D/W and V/M had the benefit of the middle field suffering injuries: the two previous world champions had all missed major events (Europeans, Worlds, GP season, etc) and were CLEARLY fighting to get back in form. I/K benefits from a weaker middle field V/M had the benefit of a nation that had finished Torino with it's best results EVER and wanted to beat that with an ambitious funding program. I/K will benefit from a strong push, but the Russian Federation is currently headless (right? Leadership issues).

    And finally, there have been five Russian World Junior Champions (four teams) in ice dance from 2000-2009. Of the four, only one has had an impact on the world stage (Domnina/Shabalin, though Bobrova/Soloviev might). More generally, using the two year leap that V/M did, from 1989-2008, only five of the 60 medaling teams (less repeaters) went on to world senior medals (I'm excluding those that medalled as part of new teams, like Faiella, Peizarat, Anissina, Averbukh etc).

    Now, people know my fantasy for Virtue/Moir (to repeat G/P's achievement) so I'm undeniably rooting for the Canadian team, but I think the prognoses are overly optimistic if not willfully blind.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post

    But what bugs me is not so much that people think they could win gold in Sochi. Anything is possible. We're dealing with a Russian Federation that wants results after a poor Olympics, a Home Games and an exceptionally high level of talent on the junior stage.

    But lets look on the other hand. D/W and V/M are teams who entered their senior careers with two seasons of experience on COP and only junior (or lesser) experience with 6.0. That gave them an advantage over many of teams competitive at that time (indeed, it's worth mentioning that D/W were the first team to score all level fours for a FD at NHK 2006, and V/M were the only team to score all level fours at Worlds 2007). I/K don't have that advantage as a full COP quad has passed and every successful team has achieved programs with all level fours (almost all, no need for counter examples).

    D/W and V/M had the benefit of retirements at the top with Navka and Kostamorov leaving before their first senior season and Denkova/Staviski and Dubreuil/Lauzon leaving a couple seasons later. V/M might retire, D/W probably won't. D/W and V/M had the benefit of the middle field suffering injuries: the two previous world champions had all missed major events (Europeans, Worlds, GP season, etc) and were CLEARLY fighting to get back in form. I/K benefits from a weaker middle field V/M had the benefit of a nation that had finished Torino with it's best results EVER and wanted to beat that with an ambitious funding program. I/K will benefit from a strong push, but the Russian Federation is currently headless (right? Leadership issues).
    There were indeed quite a bit of unique circumstances in the 2006-2010 cycle that made the rise of V/M and D/W possible, which is largely considered out of norm for Ice Dance. Traditionally, when a veteran team won the OGM, a majority of the Top 5 teams in that group usually sticks around for one more cycle trying to inherit the prize next time unless one of them is considered really old already and had already been to 3+ Olympic Games. After Torino 2006, the only two Top 5 team who are around for 2010 is Belbin/Agosto and Delobel/Schonenfelder - a highly unusual situation. Starting from the first World Championship after the 2006 season, there is a new World Champion in Ice Dance in every year. By 2008, the top 2 teams from previous years have both retired, creating a unusual void mid-way between the two Olympic Games, thus allowing the newcomer to steal the thunder. When V/M won the FD at the 2008 Worlds, almost defeating D/S of France for Gold - who was a very old veteran team on the senior scene for over a decade by then already, it was largely considered a huge surprise. They were 18/20 respectively, still young enough to compete at Junior Worlds yet they became the Vice-World Champions and became, I believe the youngest team ever to win the FD at a World Championship in the modern era of Ice Dance.

    Unexpected retirements of top teams from previous Worlds is one thing, the other is that one of these two teams happened to be the National Champions from their country - that is also another important factor because not only the field was unusually open, they also had the additional advantage of changing of guard and inheriting the prestige of being the #1 rank team from their country, which is a major member and powerful federation within the ISU. In comparison, D/W's rise in the last cycle were definitely slowed by the fact that there was no such change of guard in the United States. V/M had the additional advantage and used it to establish themselves one step ahead of their eventual Olympic rivals. You could infer that difference probably made sure they would win the Olympic Gold over D/W due to the first mover advantage.

    Then, there were the bizarre incidents and injuries. At the 2008 Worlds, Belbin/Agosto were the clear favorites to win Gold but had a freak accident in the compulsory dance. They ended up off the podium, a major shock and setback to their psyche. That event shook them to the point that they left Zueva/Shpilband for Linichuck that most people think in hindsight, was a very bad move for them as it allowed the Russian Fed to mail Domnina/Shabalin to the U.S. and train with them and pretty much made sure that D/S of Russia will be favored over B/A. The Russian Fed's logic was sound, medal or not, B/A were the top veteran team left from the previous Olympic cycle if they can be "sealed", Gold in Vancouver was virtually guaranteed for Russia. Surely, they were aware that D/W and V/M were rising and very talented - they weren't blind but seriously, they were way too young. The proof is the 2009 Worlds, pecking order persisted in Ice Dance and the top 2 teams again were the veteran teams. Then, Shabalin crumbled under his chronic injury, Isabelle Delobel had an unexpected pregnancy and Belbin/Agosto were given materials that were destined to be slotted behind Domnina/Shabalin - all these veteran teams were essentially prevented from reaching the top of their potential. If Shabalin's knee weren't as hurt or Isabelle didn't have to give birth, I honestly believe V/M and D/W wouldn't have such an easy time occupying the top two spots in Vancouver. I saw a lot of potential in Delobel/Scheonfelder's OD and FD when I was in Vancouver for the Olympic Games. Unfortunately, they were definitely hurt by the fact it was their first competition of the season. I am convinced that if they had the full season to perfect it in competition, it would have been very competitive against either D/W or V/M. Then, there is B/A. Even though I agree with the results in Vancouver and that D/S should win the Bronze over B/A - I can't help but wonder...because it was plainly obvious to me that B/A has so much potential and so strong technically and so experienced - yet the materials they were given were pretty much destined to fail. I have been very critical of B/A's 2010 OD and FD since the GP Series but seeing it in person finally as opposed on a monitor convinced me their hands were tied by an invisible string. It didn't matter how strong they were technically, they program had no distinct character, nothing to set them apart in a deep field. All it did is showing how strong they are but with almost no emotional impact to speak of. If B/A hadn't been held back by questionable coaching, again, life for D/W and V/M most likely wouldn't been so easy.

    With all these unique circumstances, it's very difficult to reproduce all these factors again for the 2014 cycle. Hence, I don't think any expectation that I/K will likely walk the path of V/M or even D/W is realistic at this point since it would require way too many generous assumptions that are completely out of their control.

  7. #22
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    Well, some people seem to have set it for them already:
    It's not I/K's problem and not their fault. So I would have given you advice to relax a little bit and take it easy.

    You said you see things that I/K are already superior to V/M, the current World and Olympic Champions even though I/K failed to even win their own Junior Nationals. Care to justify such exuberance? In what ways do you feel that I/K are already superior to V/M? Doesn't that imply and contradict your own question - regardless whether they have publicly stated their goal is Gold in Sochi or not, you have already implied it for them by suggesting they are a comparable / superior to the current World and Olympic Champions in Ice Dance.
    OMG, are you kidding? Did you read the quote I answered stating this? It was about V/M's video of 2003, what about now days V/M??
    Once again, please relax and try to read carefully what others post.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    (indeed, it's worth mentioning that D/W were the first team to score all level fours for a FD at NHK 2006, and V/M were the only team to score all level fours at Worlds 2007).
    Well, I/K were the first team to score all level fours in both OD and FD at one competition during their first international competitive season. It's already an amazing achievement and they have all potential to go on.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fashionista View Post
    It's not I/K's problem and not their fault. So I would have given you advice to relax a little bit and take it easy.
    Since I/K is not a party to the discussion here as I do not believe they post in the GS forum, I think you should listen to your own advice and calm down instead of jumping immediately to their defense. Given the repeated inferences by you and others, as you continued to make here, suggesting they are Gold medal contenders for Sochi (e.g. scoring all Level 4 in OD and FD, given such unique accomplishment), please understand that such simplistic logistic is expected to be challenged and questioned. It's one of the reasons why we are here - to challenge each other's thinking respectfully.


    OMG, are you kidding? Did you read the quote I answered stating this? It was about V/M's video of 2003, what about now days V/M??
    Once again, please relax and try to read carefully what others post.
    I read your posts very carefully. In English, when you used present tense as you did, there is not another way to interpret what you said. Perhaps you should take this as a lesson and think about writing more clearly in the future so that there is no mis-communication. See, I am not asking you to write perfectly since I can't but what you wrote was unclear to the readers due to grammar error on your part. Keep in mind, most of us are not mind readers so it would seem the wise course of action is take the feedback as opposed to trying to use disrespectful language such as "OMG, are you kidding". The only person who needs to calm down is you. You are already crowning I/K as the next one based on the results of a single competition. How far fetch and exuberant is that? You should answer that question first. It would take more than a leap of faith to buy that kind of argument, ignoring all other factors that are beyond the skaters' control but yet, critical to their eventual success. I am trying to communicate to you that perhaps you need to re-examine your logic because it appears, there are things you haven't considered before. That's it and that's all. Clearly, you are not receptive, but please, don't make this personal, it is really not worth it.

  10. #25
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    Given the repeated inferences by you and others,
    I got it, that's what irritates you and make you desperately look for minor shortcomings of I/K, right? Your sweethearts are in danger?

    as you continued to make here, suggesting they are Gold medal contenders for Sochi (e.g. scoring all Level 4 in OD and FD, given such unique accomplishment)
    Where's connection?

    IIn English, when you used present tense as you did, there is not another way to interpret what you said.
    Sorry about my mistake. Sometimes it happens because I'm not a native English-speaker. In this case it's better to check twice the quote someone refers to.

    You are already crowning I/K as the next one based on the results of a single competition. How far fetch and exuberant is that? You should answer that question first. It would take more than a leap of faith to buy that kind of argument, ignoring all other factors that are beyond the skaters' control but yet, critical to their eventual success. I am trying to communicate to you that perhaps you need to re-examine your logic because it appears, there are things you haven't considered before. That's it and that's all. Clearly, you are not receptive, but please, don't make this personal, it is really not worth it
    I'm sorry but this statement is absolutely useless as soon as I have no idea what happens in the future and no way I crown them. I didn't write anything like that and I'm surprised someone is trying to put the words in my mouth which I didn't say. I still don't get your logic, really. Anything can happen - injuries, unfortunate coaching changes, bland choreo and so on. It's four more years to go - how can one say what happens to them?

  11. #26
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    Obviously a single competition where a team wins Gold can be indicative of the talents they have and that can be developed. So on that level I think I/K are doing great and can improve. Also different programs require different kinds of chemistry. It's not all the same kind of chemistry for programs.

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