But what bugs me is not so much that people think they could win gold in Sochi. Anything is possible. We're dealing with a Russian Federation that wants results after a poor Olympics, a Home Games and an exceptionally high level of talent on the junior stage.
But lets look on the other hand. D/W and V/M are teams who entered their senior careers with two seasons of experience on COP and only junior (or lesser) experience with 6.0. That gave them an advantage over many of teams competitive at that time (indeed, it's worth mentioning that D/W were the first team to score all level fours for a FD at NHK 2006, and V/M were the only team to score all level fours at Worlds 2007). I/K don't have that advantage as a full COP quad has passed and every successful team has achieved programs with all level fours (almost all, no need for counter examples).
D/W and V/M had the benefit of retirements at the top with Navka and Kostamorov leaving before their first senior season and Denkova/Staviski and Dubreuil/Lauzon leaving a couple seasons later. V/M might retire, D/W probably won't. D/W and V/M had the benefit of the middle field suffering injuries: the two previous world champions had all missed major events (Europeans, Worlds, GP season, etc) and were CLEARLY fighting to get back in form. I/K benefits from a weaker middle field V/M had the benefit of a nation that had finished Torino with it's best results EVER and wanted to beat that with an ambitious funding program. I/K will benefit from a strong push, but the Russian Federation is currently headless (right? Leadership issues).
There were indeed quite a bit of unique circumstances in the 2006-2010 cycle that made the rise of V/M and D/W possible, which is largely considered out of norm for Ice Dance. Traditionally, when a veteran team won the OGM, a majority of the Top 5 teams in that group usually sticks around for one more cycle trying to inherit the prize next time unless one of them is considered really old already and had already been to 3+ Olympic Games. After Torino 2006, the only two Top 5 team who are around for 2010 is Belbin/Agosto and Delobel/Schonenfelder - a highly unusual situation. Starting from the first World Championship after the 2006 season, there is a new World Champion in Ice Dance in every year. By 2008, the top 2 teams from previous years have both retired, creating a unusual void mid-way between the two Olympic Games, thus allowing the newcomer to steal the thunder. When V/M won the FD at the 2008 Worlds, almost defeating D/S of France for Gold - who was a very old veteran team on the senior scene for over a decade by then already, it was largely considered a huge surprise. They were 18/20 respectively, still young enough to compete at Junior Worlds yet they became the Vice-World Champions and became, I believe the youngest team ever to win the FD at a World Championship in the modern era of Ice Dance.
Unexpected retirements of top teams from previous Worlds is one thing, the other is that one of these two teams happened to be the National Champions from their country - that is also another important factor because not only the field was unusually open, they also had the additional advantage of changing of guard and inheriting the prestige of being the #1 rank team from their country, which is a major member and powerful federation within the ISU. In comparison, D/W's rise in the last cycle were definitely slowed by the fact that there was no such change of guard in the United States. V/M had the additional advantage and used it to establish themselves one step ahead of their eventual Olympic rivals. You could infer that difference probably made sure they would win the Olympic Gold over D/W due to the first mover advantage.
Then, there were the bizarre incidents and injuries. At the 2008 Worlds, Belbin/Agosto were the clear favorites to win Gold but had a freak accident in the compulsory dance. They ended up off the podium, a major shock and setback to their psyche. That event shook them to the point that they left Zueva/Shpilband for Linichuck that most people think in hindsight, was a very bad move for them as it allowed the Russian Fed to mail Domnina/Shabalin to the U.S. and train with them and pretty much made sure that D/S of Russia will be favored over B/A. The Russian Fed's logic was sound, medal or not, B/A were the top veteran team left from the previous Olympic cycle if they can be "sealed", Gold in Vancouver was virtually guaranteed for Russia. Surely, they were aware that D/W and V/M were rising and very talented - they weren't blind but seriously, they were way too young. The proof is the 2009 Worlds, pecking order persisted in Ice Dance and the top 2 teams again were the veteran teams. Then, Shabalin crumbled under his chronic injury, Isabelle Delobel had an unexpected pregnancy and Belbin/Agosto were given materials that were destined to be slotted behind Domnina/Shabalin - all these veteran teams were essentially prevented from reaching the top of their potential. If Shabalin's knee weren't as hurt or Isabelle didn't have to give birth, I honestly believe V/M and D/W wouldn't have such an easy time occupying the top two spots in Vancouver. I saw a lot of potential in Delobel/Scheonfelder's OD and FD when I was in Vancouver for the Olympic Games. Unfortunately, they were definitely hurt by the fact it was their first competition of the season. I am convinced that if they had the full season to perfect it in competition, it would have been very competitive against either D/W or V/M. Then, there is B/A. Even though I agree with the results in Vancouver and that D/S should win the Bronze over B/A - I can't help but wonder...because it was plainly obvious to me that B/A has so much potential and so strong technically and so experienced - yet the materials they were given were pretty much destined to fail. I have been very critical of B/A's 2010 OD and FD since the GP Series but seeing it in person finally as opposed on a monitor convinced me their hands were tied by an invisible string. It didn't matter how strong they were technically, they program had no distinct character, nothing to set them apart in a deep field. All it did is showing how strong they are but with almost no emotional impact to speak of. If B/A hadn't been held back by questionable coaching, again, life for D/W and V/M most likely wouldn't been so easy.
With all these unique circumstances, it's very difficult to reproduce all these factors again for the 2014 cycle. Hence, I don't think any expectation that I/K will likely walk the path of V/M or even D/W is realistic at this point since it would require way too many generous assumptions that are completely out of their control.