Did they set a goal to win gold in Sochi?Since you want to set such a difficult goal, please forgive me for being demanding.
Let's talk about it when I/K at least have any experience in senior competitions.He is going to be 19 this year and only 1 year younger than Scott Moir when he and his partner, Tessa Virtue won Free Dance at the 2008 Worlds. Watch Scott Moir in this clip:
Not necessarily but for this couple it can easily be true. I see a lot of potential in Nikita on this point.As for your assumption that expression and chemistry necessarily improves over time, that's false.
Last edited by Fashionista; 05-31-2010 at 02:15 PM.
Last edited by wallylutz; 05-31-2010 at 02:37 PM.
But what bugs me is not so much that people think they could win gold in Sochi. Anything is possible. We're dealing with a Russian Federation that wants results after a poor Olympics, a Home Games and an exceptionally high level of talent on the junior stage.
But lets look on the other hand. D/W and V/M are teams who entered their senior careers with two seasons of experience on COP and only junior (or lesser) experience with 6.0. That gave them an advantage over many of teams competitive at that time (indeed, it's worth mentioning that D/W were the first team to score all level fours for a FD at NHK 2006, and V/M were the only team to score all level fours at Worlds 2007). I/K don't have that advantage as a full COP quad has passed and every successful team has achieved programs with all level fours (almost all, no need for counter examples).
D/W and V/M had the benefit of retirements at the top with Navka and Kostamorov leaving before their first senior season and Denkova/Staviski and Dubreuil/Lauzon leaving a couple seasons later. V/M might retire, D/W probably won't. D/W and V/M had the benefit of the middle field suffering injuries: the two previous world champions had all missed major events (Europeans, Worlds, GP season, etc) and were CLEARLY fighting to get back in form. I/K benefits from a weaker middle field V/M had the benefit of a nation that had finished Torino with it's best results EVER and wanted to beat that with an ambitious funding program. I/K will benefit from a strong push, but the Russian Federation is currently headless (right? Leadership issues).
And finally, there have been five Russian World Junior Champions (four teams) in ice dance from 2000-2009. Of the four, only one has had an impact on the world stage (Domnina/Shabalin, though Bobrova/Soloviev might). More generally, using the two year leap that V/M did, from 1989-2008, only five of the 60 medaling teams (less repeaters) went on to world senior medals (I'm excluding those that medalled as part of new teams, like Faiella, Peizarat, Anissina, Averbukh etc).
Now, people know my fantasy for Virtue/Moir (to repeat G/P's achievement) so I'm undeniably rooting for the Canadian team, but I think the prognoses are overly optimistic if not willfully blind.
Unexpected retirements of top teams from previous Worlds is one thing, the other is that one of these two teams happened to be the National Champions from their country - that is also another important factor because not only the field was unusually open, they also had the additional advantage of changing of guard and inheriting the prestige of being the #1 rank team from their country, which is a major member and powerful federation within the ISU. In comparison, D/W's rise in the last cycle were definitely slowed by the fact that there was no such change of guard in the United States. V/M had the additional advantage and used it to establish themselves one step ahead of their eventual Olympic rivals. You could infer that difference probably made sure they would win the Olympic Gold over D/W due to the first mover advantage.
Then, there were the bizarre incidents and injuries. At the 2008 Worlds, Belbin/Agosto were the clear favorites to win Gold but had a freak accident in the compulsory dance. They ended up off the podium, a major shock and setback to their psyche. That event shook them to the point that they left Zueva/Shpilband for Linichuck that most people think in hindsight, was a very bad move for them as it allowed the Russian Fed to mail Domnina/Shabalin to the U.S. and train with them and pretty much made sure that D/S of Russia will be favored over B/A. The Russian Fed's logic was sound, medal or not, B/A were the top veteran team left from the previous Olympic cycle if they can be "sealed", Gold in Vancouver was virtually guaranteed for Russia. Surely, they were aware that D/W and V/M were rising and very talented - they weren't blind but seriously, they were way too young. The proof is the 2009 Worlds, pecking order persisted in Ice Dance and the top 2 teams again were the veteran teams. Then, Shabalin crumbled under his chronic injury, Isabelle Delobel had an unexpected pregnancy and Belbin/Agosto were given materials that were destined to be slotted behind Domnina/Shabalin - all these veteran teams were essentially prevented from reaching the top of their potential. If Shabalin's knee weren't as hurt or Isabelle didn't have to give birth, I honestly believe V/M and D/W wouldn't have such an easy time occupying the top two spots in Vancouver. I saw a lot of potential in Delobel/Scheonfelder's OD and FD when I was in Vancouver for the Olympic Games. Unfortunately, they were definitely hurt by the fact it was their first competition of the season. I am convinced that if they had the full season to perfect it in competition, it would have been very competitive against either D/W or V/M. Then, there is B/A. Even though I agree with the results in Vancouver and that D/S should win the Bronze over B/A - I can't help but wonder...because it was plainly obvious to me that B/A has so much potential and so strong technically and so experienced - yet the materials they were given were pretty much destined to fail. I have been very critical of B/A's 2010 OD and FD since the GP Series but seeing it in person finally as opposed on a monitor convinced me their hands were tied by an invisible string. It didn't matter how strong they were technically, they program had no distinct character, nothing to set them apart in a deep field. All it did is showing how strong they are but with almost no emotional impact to speak of. If B/A hadn't been held back by questionable coaching, again, life for D/W and V/M most likely wouldn't been so easy.
With all these unique circumstances, it's very difficult to reproduce all these factors again for the 2014 cycle. Hence, I don't think any expectation that I/K will likely walk the path of V/M or even D/W is realistic at this point since it would require way too many generous assumptions that are completely out of their control.
It's not I/K's problem and not their fault. So I would have given you advice to relax a little bit and take it easy.Well, some people seem to have set it for them already:
OMG, are you kidding? Did you read the quote I answered stating this? It was about V/M's video of 2003, what about now days V/M??You said you see things that I/K are already superior to V/M, the current World and Olympic Champions even though I/K failed to even win their own Junior Nationals. Care to justify such exuberance? In what ways do you feel that I/K are already superior to V/M? Doesn't that imply and contradict your own question - regardless whether they have publicly stated their goal is Gold in Sochi or not, you have already implied it for them by suggesting they are a comparable / superior to the current World and Olympic Champions in Ice Dance.
Once again, please relax and try to read carefully what others post.
I read your posts very carefully. In English, when you used present tense as you did, there is not another way to interpret what you said. Perhaps you should take this as a lesson and think about writing more clearly in the future so that there is no mis-communication. See, I am not asking you to write perfectly since I can't but what you wrote was unclear to the readers due to grammar error on your part. Keep in mind, most of us are not mind readers so it would seem the wise course of action is take the feedback as opposed to trying to use disrespectful language such as "OMG, are you kidding". The only person who needs to calm down is you. You are already crowning I/K as the next one based on the results of a single competition. How far fetch and exuberant is that? You should answer that question first. It would take more than a leap of faith to buy that kind of argument, ignoring all other factors that are beyond the skaters' control but yet, critical to their eventual success. I am trying to communicate to you that perhaps you need to re-examine your logic because it appears, there are things you haven't considered before. That's it and that's all. Clearly, you are not receptive, but please, don't make this personal, it is really not worth it.OMG, are you kidding? Did you read the quote I answered stating this? It was about V/M's video of 2003, what about now days V/M??
Once again, please relax and try to read carefully what others post.
I got it, that's what irritates you and make you desperately look for minor shortcomings of I/K, right? Your sweethearts are in danger?Given the repeated inferences by you and others,
Where's connection?as you continued to make here, suggesting they are Gold medal contenders for Sochi (e.g. scoring all Level 4 in OD and FD, given such unique accomplishment)
Sorry about my mistake. Sometimes it happens because I'm not a native English-speaker. In this case it's better to check twice the quote someone refers to.IIn English, when you used present tense as you did, there is not another way to interpret what you said.
I'm sorry but this statement is absolutely useless as soon as I have no idea what happens in the future and no way I crown them. I didn't write anything like that and I'm surprised someone is trying to put the words in my mouth which I didn't say. I still don't get your logic, really. Anything can happen - injuries, unfortunate coaching changes, bland choreo and so on. It's four more years to go - how can one say what happens to them?You are already crowning I/K as the next one based on the results of a single competition. How far fetch and exuberant is that? You should answer that question first. It would take more than a leap of faith to buy that kind of argument, ignoring all other factors that are beyond the skaters' control but yet, critical to their eventual success. I am trying to communicate to you that perhaps you need to re-examine your logic because it appears, there are things you haven't considered before. That's it and that's all. Clearly, you are not receptive, but please, don't make this personal, it is really not worth it
Obviously a single competition where a team wins Gold can be indicative of the talents they have and that can be developed. So on that level I think I/K are doing great and can improve. Also different programs require different kinds of chemistry. It's not all the same kind of chemistry for programs.