2010-11 JGP Assignments speculation & discussion

[Sylvia]

These 2 posts were originally in the Senior Grand Prix Assignments thread and so I thought I'd start a new thread, kicking off with the ladies:

What about the JGP assignments?

It hasn't been announced yet. I'm a little concerned about the JGP this year though, it's going to be very hard to make the final, with both Polina's, Anna, Sofya, maybe Roza (who has improved a lot this season) or Kristina Zaseeva, Gao, Baga on on the JGP for the second time, not to mention Liza and Adelina who will be making their JGP debuts but can put up massive scores and Kim Hae-Jin from Korea. I'm worried about the chances of skaters like Kiri or Anna or Sofya or Christina to even make the final, Kiri where she's inconsistent and doesn't have that much technical content in her programs, Anna where she has the tendency to struggle in the LP, Sofya where she is inconsistent, and Christina because of her PCS and recent struggles with her 3t-3t (i'm still hoping she upgrades it to 3f-3t next season, which will give her an advantage).

2010-11 JGP dates & locations:
JGP #1: August 25-28 - Courchevel, France
JGP #2: September 8-12 - Brasov, Romania
JGP #3: September 15-19 - Graz, Austria (includes pairs)
JGP #4: September 22-26 - Karuizawa, Japan
JGP #5: September 29-October 3 - Sheffield, Great Britain (includes pairs)
JGP #6: October 6-10 - Dresden, Germany (includes pairs)
JGP #7: October 13-17 - Ostrava, Czech Republic (includes pairs)
JGP & SGP FINAL: December 9-12 - Beijing, China

The top JGP ladies (medalists last year) returning, ranked by Season Best score this past season:
21 Polina Shelepen RUS - 2 gold, JGPF2, JW4
28 Polina Agafonova RUS - 1 bronze, JW3
32 Christina Gao USA - 2 bronze, JGPF3, JW8
37 Anna Ovcharova RUS - 1 silver, JGPF5, JW5
38 Kate Charbonneau CAN - 1 silver, JW6
40 Kiri Baga USA JGPF/JW7 - 2 gold, JGPF7, JW7
43 Yuki Nishino JPN - 1 silver
47 Sofia Biryukova RUS - 1 silver
59 Isabelle Olsson SWE - 1 bronze
Not yet sure about:
46 Angela Maxwell USA - 2 silver, JGPF6
55 Ellie Kawamura USA - 1 bronze, JGPF8

Here's a list of some of the ladies expected to make their JGP debut this season:
Adelina Sotnikova RUS
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS
Kristina Zaseeva RUS (possibly)
Hae-Jin Kim KOR

USA possibilities (no previous JGP experience):
Samantha Cesario (S14 at Nationals), Yasmin Siraj (J2), Lindsay Davis (J3), Nina Jiang (J5); other candidates include Felicia Zhang (J6; she is in contention for a Senior GP assignment in pairs with Taylor Toth), Angela Wang (J7), Vanessa Lam (J8), Ashley Cain (N2; as the Novice pairs champ with Joshua Reagan, she is in line to receive a JGP assignment in pairs), Katarina Kulgeyko (N3), Gracie Gold (N4).

Who are the likely ladies from Japan? Tossing out some names from their Nationals (Senior & Junior):
Yukiko Fujisawa (J3; has previous JGP experience), Ayumi Goto (S8), Karen Kemanai (J6/S11), Ayane Nakamura (S12; has previous JGP experience), Shion Kokubun (S14), Kana Muramoto (S17; JGP bronze in fall 2008), Kako Tomataki (J5/S18), Rina Kondo (J8), Miyabi Ohba (J9), Risa Shoji (J10), Roannasari Oshikawa (J11)...
(I've been informed that Satoko Miyahara (J4) and Riona Kato (J7) are too young.)

[silverlake22]

I just thought of something. Sofia Biryukova turns 16 this summer and therefore is age eligible for SGP regardless of if they change the rules, so I'm wondering if she's being considered for the TBA RUS spot at COR. She's clearly the best of the Russian girls eligible for that spot, and if she is given that assignment, it means she wouldn't compete on JGP.

[Meli_Huber]

I just thought of something. Sofia Biryukova turns 16 this summer and therefore is age eligible for SGP regardless of if they change the rules, so I'm wondering if she's being considered for the TBA RUS spot at COR. She's clearly the best of the Russian girls eligible for that spot, and if she is given that assignment, it means she wouldn't compete on JGP.

I think, that when the training in summer goes well for Sofia, and her result at the first russian cup competitions are good, she will get that spot. Russia have so many young talented, so it is necessary, that Sofia gets that spot, because, then they have one talent away from JGP and more places for all the other youngsters.
The best way will be, Sofia skate SGP and to give her a ISU B Competition. I think, she can really challenge Leonova for a spot at Euros! When Sofia is one, it will not easy for Alena to beat her.

[Lucky Star]

I think, that when the training in summer goes well for Sofia, and her result at the first russian cup competitions are good, she will get that spot. Russia have so many young talented, so it is necessary, that Sofia gets that spot, because, then they have one talent away from JGP and more places for all the other youngsters.
The best way will be, Sofia skate SGP and to give her a ISU B Competition. I think, she can really challenge Leonova for a spot at Euros! When Sofia is one, it will not easy for Alena to beat her.

It will be better for Sofya to go to the JGP. She can get 2 spots there and make the final, she needs more experience and now she is too inconsistant, I don't think she has a chance to beat Alena. Yes, Alena struggled later in the season, but she had injury and then was ill and couldn't train, I think next season will be better for her

[GiuliaPlum]

Thank you so much Sylvia. Do you know when the assignments are decided?

[Sylvia]

Thank you so much Sylvia. Do you know when the assignments are decided?

You're welcome. The federations usually are required to submit the names of all their JGP entries and alternates "not less than 31 days" (according to last year's Announcement) before the draw of each JGP. Sometimes the federations will announce their entries earlier, but it's up to them. Mid-June last year is when the federations had to let the ISU know their "entries by number" (if they were going to use all or some of the JGP slots earned based on the results of their skaters at the most recent Junior Worlds).

[bluelutz]

Japanese possiblity

Ayumi Goto (S8) I think she will get JGP spot unless she is chosen for TBA spot of NHK.
Solid jumps but needs to improve her artistry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGPcnU1psA0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbVfTHSaP1c
Ayane Nakamura (S12) Great potentials, well at least one time, but has been terribly inconsistant.
Shion Kokubun (S14) She lost weight and turned out to be a fine skater.
I think she will get JGP spot unless she is chosen for TBA of NHK.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raXVrAp7eM4
Yuki Nishino (S16) Her everything else has improved but her jumps decided to go the other way.
Because of her one silver finishing on JGP last year, I think she deserves one spot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHZa3TMam1k
Kana Muramoto (S17) Like her sister, Satsuki, a fine skater but not enough jumps.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yukiko Fujisawa (S10)(J3) Though at this point, she is the biggest hope for Japanese junior,
unfortunately her jumps became less consistant last year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCaXi02rBSM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p2rW-LFLlU
Karen Kemanai (S11)(J6) A grest jumping bean but no artistry.
at least jumpwise she can compete with Russian girls.
Kako Tomotaki (S18)(J5) do not know much about her.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rina Kondo (J8) Coached by Yamada, her skating technique is just superb.
However, with only one or two triples, no way to compete at international level.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Miyabi Ohba (J9) do not know much about her.
Risa Shoji (J10)(N2) Musical and fluid. Good potentials.
Roanna Sari Oshikawa (J11) Very musical and at least attempts jumps up to 3Lz,
but they are very small and often underrotated.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ayana Yasuhara (N1) Her jumps are up to only 3Lp.
Miu Sato (N6) Coached by Yamada, she has a solid 3Lz.


All these girls are age elgible, though probably 7 or 8 of them will be given at least one spot,
and whoever will be placed high enough get the second spot.
I think Fujisawa, Kemanai and Tomotaki will be definitely given a spot
and also Goto, Kokubun and Nishino will get one though either Goto or Kokubun might get NHK instead.

Then two spots will be left, and I think one of them will go to Shoji,
and the last one will go to probably either Ohba or Oshikawa, or maybe to Nakamura.

With Murakami and Imai going to the senior ranks,
the new Japanese Junior team is not bad at all.
At least four or five of them are capable to get a medal at JGP,
and most of them got jumps up to 3Lz or 3F.
Needless to say they are still not good as Russians,
but the better batch compared to the ones of the last few seasons.

[silverlake22]

It will be better for Sofya to go to the JGP. She can get 2 spots there and make the final, she needs more experience and now she is too inconsistant, I don't think she has a chance to beat Alena. Yes, Alena struggled later in the season, but she had injury and then was ill and couldn't train, I think next season will be better for her

Making the JGPF isn't a given for any of the girls this year, there are so many talented ones that I even the top girls may not be able to have an off night or program and still make the final. Russia has many talented girls who will be in JGP who have consistently beaten Sofia in competitions all season, the US has Gao and Baga returning and many other strong skaters who will be making their JGP debuts, Korea has Hae-Jin Kim, and Japan will likely have Fujisawa (who won silver at JGPF two years ago), as well as some other strong girls. Sofia when she is on is definitely more than capable of making the final, but the field will be so deep this season that I'm not sure anyone is a shoo-in for the final.

Further, Sofia is a very bright talent and if she goes to COR and does well it will give her good exposure and poise her well to get 2 GPs the following season and maybe make the European or World teams this coming season. She is such a step up from Gozeva and Petushkova who are probably the only other two girls being considered for the spot. Further, there are so many talented younger girls that Russia probably wants to send to JGP this season if possible.

[bluelutz]

It will be a tough season for girls like Kiri if they have not got consistant 3Lz or 3F, that's for sure.
Not only super Russian girls but also Japan will send much more girls than the last season,
and most of them have jumps up to 3Lz or 3F.
Of course, Figure skating is not only about jumping,
Kiri is a beautiful skater.
However, it is definitely tough to compete with so many girls with jumping talents.

I think
5-6 girls are going to JGPF from Russia
1-3 from U.S.
1-3 from Japan
0-1 from korea

unless some unknown talents emerge from some other countries.

[silverlake22]

It will be a tough season for Kiri if she has not got consistant 3Lz or 3F, that's for sure.
Not only super Russian girls but also Japan will send much more gilrs than the last season,
and most of them have jumps up to 3Lz or 3F.
Of course, Figure skating is not only about jumping,
but it is definitely tough to compete with so many girls with jumping talents.

I thinks
5-6 girls are going to JGPF from Russia
1-3 from U.S.
1-3 from Japan
0-1 from korea

unless some unknown talents emerge from some other countries.

That sounds about right. Also not even solid 3lz and 3f may be enough, most skaters will probably want a solid 3-3 or 2a-3 as well, as most of the russian girls have one (or two) and Liza can even do 3a as well. In terms of technical content, I think we'll see more of it on JGP than SGP.


This is all speculative though, a lot of these girls are inconsistent and sometimes perform less than stellar programs in competition. Further, they will probably try and spread out the top competitors, no more than 3 russians or 3 americans can be at a single event, and most likely there will be 2 russians and 2 us ladies at each event ( 7 events, both countries have 14 spots, meaning likely 2 of each nationality per JGP). I don't think they'll assign the best 2 russian ladies (even though there are about 5 russian ladies who are at a fairly equal level - both Polinas, Anna, Liza, Adelina) to the same event with the best 2 US ladies (Gao and likely either Baga/Siraj/Cesario). So if Anna and Roza are at the same event as say Lindsay and Nina, Anna can likely win, or if Christina Gao and Kristene Gong are at the same event as say Kristina Z and Sofia, then Christina can likely win. But if say Liza and Polina A are at the same event as Christina Gao and Yasmin Siraj, then the winner is harder to predict.

In past years making the JGPF has not required tremendous technical difficulty or 2 perfect competitions for most skaters, and while this year may be different, most likely it will be similar to previous years. Some people get harder events, there are growthspurts and injuries leading to some flawed programs or competitions, there are surprises, and sometimes the girl who medals at her first event will bomb the next or vice versa.

[Jiarry]

This girl will begin her JGP debut this year:
http://www.56.com/u11/v_NTA5NzcyMjA.html
Her 2A-3T training video:
http://www.56.com/u53/v_NTE2NTExMTQ.html

[silverlake22]

This girl will begin her JGP debut this year:
http://www.56.com/u11/v_NTA5NzcyMjA.html
Her 2A-3T training video:
http://www.56.com/u53/v_NTE2NTExMTQ.html

Is she Korean? Maybe it's that girl with the last name Park who was 3rd at Korean Nationals?

[bluelutz]

One more important fact is that Lp(2Lp or 3Lp) is this season's required jump for junior's SP.
As most of those top girls got at least 3Lz or 3F, they can have a combination with one of those.
Though 3Lp is considered less difficult than 3Lz and 3F,
somehow some skaters are not very good at 3Lp like Kanako.
If 3Lp had been a last year's requirement, it could have been a very different story for her.

So checking out who can do solid 3Lp can help to predict who will be sent to JGP and who will do well there.

I just realized Kiri did not have 3Lp for her last years program either.
Some Russian girls can do SP like 3Lz+3T and 3Lp, which means 3 triples.
On the other hand, all Kiri can do is 3F+2T and 2Lp, and her 3F is not very consistant.
If she misses it, she does not have any triple in her SP.

I thought Kiri was the most artistic one of all junior ladies last season,
but for this season, she needs more jumps.

[Chemistry66]

Is she Korean? Maybe it's that girl with the last name Park who was 3rd at Korean Nationals?

No, the language on that website is Chinese according to my Google translator (and the poster's location says China). The translator says "Lizi Jun 09-10 Championship LP", and Wikipedia lists a "Li ZiJun" as the silver medalist at the 2010 Chinese Figure Skating Championships.

[Jiarry]

Yes, she has triple loop,though it seems a little under rotated in this vedo;
Her name is Zijun Li