2010-11 JGP Assignments speculation & discussion | Golden Skate

2010-11 JGP Assignments speculation & discussion

Sylvia

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 25, 2003
These 2 posts were originally in the Senior Grand Prix Assignments thread and so I thought I'd start a new thread, kicking off with the ladies:
What about the JGP assignments?
It hasn't been announced yet. I'm a little concerned about the JGP this year though, it's going to be very hard to make the final, with both Polina's, Anna, Sofya, maybe Roza (who has improved a lot this season) or Kristina Zaseeva, Gao, Baga on on the JGP for the second time, not to mention Liza and Adelina who will be making their JGP debuts but can put up massive scores and Kim Hae-Jin from Korea. I'm worried about the chances of skaters like Kiri or Anna or Sofya or Christina to even make the final, Kiri where she's inconsistent and doesn't have that much technical content in her programs, Anna where she has the tendency to struggle in the LP, Sofya where she is inconsistent, and Christina because of her PCS and recent struggles with her 3t-3t (i'm still hoping she upgrades it to 3f-3t next season, which will give her an advantage).

2010-11 JGP dates & locations:
JGP #1: August 25-28 - Courchevel, France
JGP #2: September 8-12 - Brasov, Romania
JGP #3: September 15-19 - Graz, Austria (includes pairs)
JGP #4: September 22-26 - Karuizawa, Japan
JGP #5: September 29-October 3 - Sheffield, Great Britain (includes pairs)
JGP #6: October 6-10 - Dresden, Germany (includes pairs)
JGP #7: October 13-17 - Ostrava, Czech Republic (includes pairs)
JGP & SGP FINAL: December 9-12 - Beijing, China

The top JGP ladies (medalists last year) returning, ranked by Season Best score this past season:
21 Polina Shelepen RUS - 2 gold, JGPF2, JW4
28 Polina Agafonova RUS - 1 bronze, JW3
32 Christina Gao USA - 2 bronze, JGPF3, JW8
37 Anna Ovcharova RUS - 1 silver, JGPF5, JW5
38 Kate Charbonneau CAN - 1 silver, JW6
40 Kiri Baga USA JGPF/JW7 - 2 gold, JGPF7, JW7
43 Yuki Nishino JPN - 1 silver
47 Sofia Biryukova RUS - 1 silver
59 Isabelle Olsson SWE - 1 bronze
Not yet sure about:
46 Angela Maxwell USA - 2 silver, JGPF6
55 Ellie Kawamura USA - 1 bronze, JGPF8

Here's a list of some of the ladies expected to make their JGP debut this season:
Adelina Sotnikova RUS
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS
Kristina Zaseeva RUS (possibly)
Hae-Jin Kim KOR

USA possibilities (no previous JGP experience):
Samantha Cesario (S14 at Nationals), Yasmin Siraj (J2), Lindsay Davis (J3), Nina Jiang (J5); other candidates include Felicia Zhang (J6; she is in contention for a Senior GP assignment in pairs with Taylor Toth), Angela Wang (J7), Vanessa Lam (J8), Ashley Cain (N2; as the Novice pairs champ with Joshua Reagan, she is in line to receive a JGP assignment in pairs), Katarina Kulgeyko (N3), Gracie Gold (N4).

Who are the likely ladies from Japan? Tossing out some names from their Nationals (Senior & Junior):
Yukiko Fujisawa (J3; has previous JGP experience), Ayumi Goto (S8), Karen Kemanai (J6/S11), Ayane Nakamura (S12; has previous JGP experience), Shion Kokubun (S14), Kana Muramoto (S17; JGP bronze in fall 2008), Kako Tomataki (J5/S18), Rina Kondo (J8), Miyabi Ohba (J9), Risa Shoji (J10), Roannasari Oshikawa (J11)...
(I've been informed that Satoko Miyahara (J4) and Riona Kato (J7) are too young.)
 
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silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I just thought of something. Sofia Biryukova turns 16 this summer and therefore is age eligible for SGP regardless of if they change the rules, so I'm wondering if she's being considered for the TBA RUS spot at COR. She's clearly the best of the Russian girls eligible for that spot, and if she is given that assignment, it means she wouldn't compete on JGP.
 

Meli_Huber

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 25, 2008
I just thought of something. Sofia Biryukova turns 16 this summer and therefore is age eligible for SGP regardless of if they change the rules, so I'm wondering if she's being considered for the TBA RUS spot at COR. She's clearly the best of the Russian girls eligible for that spot, and if she is given that assignment, it means she wouldn't compete on JGP.

I think, that when the training in summer goes well for Sofia, and her result at the first russian cup competitions are good, she will get that spot. Russia have so many young talented, so it is necessary, that Sofia gets that spot, because, then they have one talent away from JGP and more places for all the other youngsters.
The best way will be, Sofia skate SGP and to give her a ISU B Competition. I think, she can really challenge Leonova for a spot at Euros! When Sofia is one, it will not easy for Alena to beat her.
 

Lucky Star

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
I think, that when the training in summer goes well for Sofia, and her result at the first russian cup competitions are good, she will get that spot. Russia have so many young talented, so it is necessary, that Sofia gets that spot, because, then they have one talent away from JGP and more places for all the other youngsters.
The best way will be, Sofia skate SGP and to give her a ISU B Competition. I think, she can really challenge Leonova for a spot at Euros! When Sofia is one, it will not easy for Alena to beat her.

It will be better for Sofya to go to the JGP. She can get 2 spots there and make the final, she needs more experience and now she is too inconsistant, I don't think she has a chance to beat Alena. Yes, Alena struggled later in the season, but she had injury and then was ill and couldn't train, I think next season will be better for her
 

Sylvia

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 25, 2003
Thank you so much Sylvia. Do you know when the assignments are decided?
You're welcome. The federations usually are required to submit the names of all their JGP entries and alternates "not less than 31 days" (according to last year's Announcement) before the draw of each JGP. Sometimes the federations will announce their entries earlier, but it's up to them. Mid-June last year is when the federations had to let the ISU know their "entries by number" (if they were going to use all or some of the JGP slots earned based on the results of their skaters at the most recent Junior Worlds).
 

bluelutz

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 23, 2003
Japanese possiblity

Ayumi Goto (S8) I think she will get JGP spot unless she is chosen for TBA spot of NHK.
Solid jumps but needs to improve her artistry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGPcnU1psA0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbVfTHSaP1c
Ayane Nakamura (S12) Great potentials, well at least one time, but has been terribly inconsistant.
Shion Kokubun (S14) She lost weight and turned out to be a fine skater.
I think she will get JGP spot unless she is chosen for TBA of NHK.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raXVrAp7eM4
Yuki Nishino (S16) Her everything else has improved but her jumps decided to go the other way.
Because of her one silver finishing on JGP last year, I think she deserves one spot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHZa3TMam1k
Kana Muramoto (S17) Like her sister, Satsuki, a fine skater but not enough jumps.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yukiko Fujisawa (S10)(J3) Though at this point, she is the biggest hope for Japanese junior,
unfortunately her jumps became less consistant last year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCaXi02rBSM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p2rW-LFLlU
Karen Kemanai (S11)(J6) A grest jumping bean but no artistry.
at least jumpwise she can compete with Russian girls.
Kako Tomotaki (S18)(J5) do not know much about her.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rina Kondo (J8) Coached by Yamada, her skating technique is just superb.
However, with only one or two triples, no way to compete at international level.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Miyabi Ohba (J9) do not know much about her.
Risa Shoji (J10)(N2) Musical and fluid. Good potentials.
Roanna Sari Oshikawa (J11) Very musical and at least attempts jumps up to 3Lz,
but they are very small and often underrotated.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ayana Yasuhara (N1) Her jumps are up to only 3Lp.
Miu Sato (N6) Coached by Yamada, she has a solid 3Lz.


All these girls are age elgible, though probably 7 or 8 of them will be given at least one spot,
and whoever will be placed high enough get the second spot.
I think Fujisawa, Kemanai and Tomotaki will be definitely given a spot
and also Goto, Kokubun and Nishino will get one though either Goto or Kokubun might get NHK instead.

Then two spots will be left, and I think one of them will go to Shoji,
and the last one will go to probably either Ohba or Oshikawa, or maybe to Nakamura.

With Murakami and Imai going to the senior ranks,
the new Japanese Junior team is not bad at all.
At least four or five of them are capable to get a medal at JGP,
and most of them got jumps up to 3Lz or 3F.
Needless to say they are still not good as Russians,
but the better batch compared to the ones of the last few seasons.
 
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silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
It will be better for Sofya to go to the JGP. She can get 2 spots there and make the final, she needs more experience and now she is too inconsistant, I don't think she has a chance to beat Alena. Yes, Alena struggled later in the season, but she had injury and then was ill and couldn't train, I think next season will be better for her

Making the JGPF isn't a given for any of the girls this year, there are so many talented ones that I even the top girls may not be able to have an off night or program and still make the final. Russia has many talented girls who will be in JGP who have consistently beaten Sofia in competitions all season, the US has Gao and Baga returning and many other strong skaters who will be making their JGP debuts, Korea has Hae-Jin Kim, and Japan will likely have Fujisawa (who won silver at JGPF two years ago), as well as some other strong girls. Sofia when she is on is definitely more than capable of making the final, but the field will be so deep this season that I'm not sure anyone is a shoo-in for the final.

Further, Sofia is a very bright talent and if she goes to COR and does well it will give her good exposure and poise her well to get 2 GPs the following season and maybe make the European or World teams this coming season. She is such a step up from Gozeva and Petushkova who are probably the only other two girls being considered for the spot. Further, there are so many talented younger girls that Russia probably wants to send to JGP this season if possible.
 

bluelutz

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 23, 2003
It will be a tough season for girls like Kiri if they have not got consistant 3Lz or 3F, that's for sure.
Not only super Russian girls but also Japan will send much more girls than the last season,
and most of them have jumps up to 3Lz or 3F.
Of course, Figure skating is not only about jumping,
Kiri is a beautiful skater.:love:
However, it is definitely tough to compete with so many girls with jumping talents.

I think
5-6 girls are going to JGPF from Russia
1-3 from U.S.
1-3 from Japan
0-1 from korea

unless some unknown talents emerge from some other countries.
 
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silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
It will be a tough season for Kiri if she has not got consistant 3Lz or 3F, that's for sure.
Not only super Russian girls but also Japan will send much more gilrs than the last season,
and most of them have jumps up to 3Lz or 3F.
Of course, Figure skating is not only about jumping,
but it is definitely tough to compete with so many girls with jumping talents.

I thinks
5-6 girls are going to JGPF from Russia
1-3 from U.S.
1-3 from Japan
0-1 from korea

unless some unknown talents emerge from some other countries.

That sounds about right. Also not even solid 3lz and 3f may be enough, most skaters will probably want a solid 3-3 or 2a-3 as well, as most of the russian girls have one (or two) and Liza can even do 3a as well. In terms of technical content, I think we'll see more of it on JGP than SGP.


This is all speculative though, a lot of these girls are inconsistent and sometimes perform less than stellar programs in competition. Further, they will probably try and spread out the top competitors, no more than 3 russians or 3 americans can be at a single event, and most likely there will be 2 russians and 2 us ladies at each event ( 7 events, both countries have 14 spots, meaning likely 2 of each nationality per JGP). I don't think they'll assign the best 2 russian ladies (even though there are about 5 russian ladies who are at a fairly equal level - both Polinas, Anna, Liza, Adelina) to the same event with the best 2 US ladies (Gao and likely either Baga/Siraj/Cesario). So if Anna and Roza are at the same event as say Lindsay and Nina, Anna can likely win, or if Christina Gao and Kristene Gong are at the same event as say Kristina Z and Sofia, then Christina can likely win. But if say Liza and Polina A are at the same event as Christina Gao and Yasmin Siraj, then the winner is harder to predict.

In past years making the JGPF has not required tremendous technical difficulty or 2 perfect competitions for most skaters, and while this year may be different, most likely it will be similar to previous years. Some people get harder events, there are growthspurts and injuries leading to some flawed programs or competitions, there are surprises, and sometimes the girl who medals at her first event will bomb the next or vice versa.
 
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bluelutz

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 23, 2003
One more important fact is that Lp(2Lp or 3Lp) is this season's required jump for junior's SP.
As most of those top girls got at least 3Lz or 3F, they can have a combination with one of those.
Though 3Lp is considered less difficult than 3Lz and 3F,
somehow some skaters are not very good at 3Lp like Kanako.
If 3Lp had been a last year's requirement, it could have been a very different story for her.

So checking out who can do solid 3Lp can help to predict who will be sent to JGP and who will do well there.

I just realized Kiri did not have 3Lp for her last years program either.
Some Russian girls can do SP like 3Lz+3T and 3Lp, which means 3 triples.
On the other hand, all Kiri can do is 3F+2T and 2Lp, and her 3F is not very consistant.
If she misses it, she does not have any triple in her SP.

I thought Kiri was the most artistic one of all junior ladies last season,
but for this season, she needs more jumps.
 

Chemistry66

Mmmmm, tacos.
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
Is she Korean? Maybe it's that girl with the last name Park who was 3rd at Korean Nationals?

No, the language on that website is Chinese according to my Google translator (and the poster's location says China). The translator says "Lizi Jun 09-10 Championship LP", and Wikipedia lists a "Li ZiJun" as the silver medalist at the 2010 Chinese Figure Skating Championships.
 

Jiarry

Rinkside
Joined
Aug 6, 2009
Yes, she has triple loop,though it seems a little under rotated in this vedo;
Her name is Zijun Li
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
One more important fact is that Lp(2Lp or 3Lp) is this season's required jump for junior's SP.
As most of those top girls got at least 3Lz or 3F, they can have a combination with one of those.
Though 3Lp is considered less difficult than 3Lz and 3F,
somehow some skaters are not very good at 3Lp like Kanako.
If 3Lp had been a last year's requirement, it could have been a very different story for her.

So checking out who can do solid 3Lp can help to predict who will be sent to JGP and who will do well there.

I just realized Kiri did not have 3Lp for her last years program either.
Some Russian girls can do SP like 3Lz+3T and 3Lp, which means 3 triples.
On the other hand, all Kiri can do is 3F+2T and 2Lp, and her 3F is not very consistant.
If she misses it, she does not have any triple in her SP.

I thought Kiri was the most artistic one of all junior ladies last season,
but for this season, she needs more jumps.

Is a skater allowed to do 2 3 loops in a program? Like 3lz-3lo and 3lo out of footwork (i'm thinking Adelina, and Anna because she's a loop jumper), does that violate any rules?

Also, Kiri may have mastered 3lz by now, and she may also be working on 3-3s and ready to put them in her program by the fall. She may do 3t-3t and 3lo, which is probably what Gao will do as well unless she upgrades her combo to 3f-3t. Where 3f value was lowered and 3lz was not, Kiri could also try for 3lz-2t. Plus I think she'll at least go for the 3lo, even if she falls or gets downgraded on it, she didn't have 3f at nationals in 09 and then attempted it on the JGP in the fall. Her PCS are also gonna help her out a lot so long as she doesn't meltdown, they are always high.

AFAIK, the Russian girls all have 3lo, though Agafonova didn't have it in her programs this past season and Anna's sometimes gets UR calls (though that will be not as huge a deal this season, plus her PCS will help, when she's clean she gets big scores, and even when she's not clean her PCS are still high). Gao did 3lo at Jr Worlds and it wasn't clean but it looked pretty good. Jiang and Siraj both landed 3lo with +GOE at Gardenia so that's good for both of them, Angela Wang has a solid 3lo, Cesario didn't do 3lo in her programs last season but in a practice video from May she landed a few nice ones. Davis can do 3lo but this season that was the hardest triple she did so she may be at a bit of a disadvantage. Cain and Kulgeyko I believe only did 3t and 3s at nationals but are likely working on 3lo and other triples.
 

shine

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
No, the language on that website is Chinese according to my Google translator (and the poster's location says China). The translator says "Lizi Jun 09-10 Championship LP", and Wikipedia lists a "Li ZiJun" as the silver medalist at the 2010 Chinese Figure Skating Championships.

Yes, she also recently turned 13 and won the 2010 Chinese Nationals in April beating Yan Liu. Her jumps have improved a lot since 2008 and I think her 2axel-3toe is looking really good. Although she still needs to work on some technical issues (namely the flutz and underroated loop), I think with good guidance and programs she has a a lot of potential judging by the way she skates. I look forward to seeing her skate on the JGP and hope she goes further than her Chinese predecessors.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nO_TJVRgIRY&feature=related Here's another very promising young Chinese girl Wang Xuehan. But I don't think she'll be age eligible for JGP until next season.
 
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euroskate

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 25, 2010
Is a skater allowed to do 2 3 loops in a program? Like 3lz-3lo and 3lo out of footwork (i'm thinking Adelina, and Anna because she's a loop jumper), does that violate any rules?

Whatever jump is the solo jump you are not allowed to repeat it in the combo. So next season no 3Lo Combos are allowed!
 

Lucky Star

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Is a skater allowed to do 2 3 loops in a program? Like 3lz-3lo and 3lo out of footwork (i'm thinking Adelina, and Anna because she's a loop jumper), does that violate any rules?
Whatever jump is the solo jump you are not allowed to repeat it in the combo. So next season no 3Lo Combos are allowed!

Not good for Anna, but I think she can make the final without 3-3 in the SP and she still can try 3-3Lo or 2A-3Lo in the LP. And not bad for Adelina, she can do 3-3 with 3T in the end

AFAIK, the Russian girls all have 3lo, though Agafonova didn't have it in her programs this past season and Anna's sometimes gets UR calls (though that will be not as huge a deal this season, plus her PCS will help, when she's clean she gets big scores, and even when she's not clean her PCS are still high).
Seems like all the Russian girls have all the triples (except Anna who doesn't have 3S; Agafonova has 3Lo, she did 3Lo-2T at Senior Nationals) and most also have 3-3 (3Lz-3T for two Polinas and Liza; 3T-3T for Biryukova and Zaseeva; and also Adelina, don't know which combo she will try)
 
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