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Thread: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selection?

  1. #16
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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    absolute proof of shaving points, no
    but see sasha score in long program,
    what was her final score with the botches of jumps (which claim didn't see) versus zhang (which saw all and /or alissa, mirai's)
    not shaved points but not garner high goe's points either.
    rachel benefit of doubt, ashley benefit of doubt.
    All you need to do is take a look at the (goe's) plus and minuses on their jumps and sequence, spins and see who got plus for their mistakes and who go zero or nothing for their mistakes.
    not total proof -no- but not total truth from judges and federations, isu either.
    if people can see mistakes and /or lack of rotation, and or wrong edge, and or lack of flow on jumps, wobbly landings, and i mean every single person who saw mistakes.
    i believe the forum when everyone said such and such made a mistake, because they did.
    what i didn't believe was when they stated well for example zhang made one and NOT rachel, ashley, sasha, joannie, mao, yu-na made one either.

    they are human they make mistakes.

    yes-you job as fan is to point out other skaters mistakes, but at the same time if you point out their skater -be prepared to take that your skater made mistakes as well.
    where the USFSA goes wrong is nationals -they only point out the skaters mistakes by lack of positivies on their goe's scores (catching all their mistakes, NO BENEFIT OF DOUBT, either zeors or minuses in their goes). to me that is shaving and cheating when it it totally noticeably that their usfsa favorite skaters, like ashly, rachel ,sasha, makes mistakes and get postitive goe's for their mistakes.

  2. #17
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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    Quote Originally Posted by cornell08 View Post
    I would say scores should be weighted:
    Nationals: 45 %
    Previous 5 international outings in order from most recent to oldest weighted: 25, 15, 10, 5 % .
    This is a fairly simple formula. The only thing is, I feel placements should count as well as actual scores.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    Quote Originally Posted by Tonichelle View Post
    they would have judged it accordingly judging by the fairness that that week held scorewise (even with inflation) and then put him on the team based on his achievements over the season and the fact that he was reigning world champion. That has always been their right and an option. Theyve just never has a reason to use it.
    I hope you are right, but I remember someone here during Nationals time who seemed to have inside info about this topic who said Evan absolutely would not have made the team had he placed 4th. I hope that person was mistaken.

    The "underdog" can of course be rewarded with a high Nationals placement, but it doesn't necessarily mean they should also be named to the Olympic team. Your best skaters who are capable of bringing in the best international results should be sent to the Olympics. So if that means 4th place Evan needs to be sent to the Olympics over someone with far less international success who happened to get lucky one day and beat him, I'm doing it. Showing up one day with a limited international history, no expectations, and placing high at Nationals shouldn't guarantee you an Olympic spot. Maybe this is not considered "fair" to the underdog, but I don't find it fair to the top contenders to overlook everything they have already done to prove they are Olympic worthy contenders before Nationals day. I would find it MUCH more fair for them to truly consider someone out of the top 3 for an Olympic spot, rather than having them finagle with the results to get Evan into the top 3 regardless of performance in fear that it would look "unfair" to skip over someone with less international scoring potential and select Evan instead. (run-on sentence, but I think it makes sense )

    Quote Originally Posted by cornell08 View Post
    I think trend is hugely important-- and also Nationals, so that a lights-out performance by someone who hadn't been the most dominant may still give that underdog a shot (so as to preserve the 'magic' of Nationals).

    I would say scores should be weighted:
    Nationals: 45 %
    Previous 5 international outings in order from most recent to oldest weighted: 25, 15, 10, 5 % .
    I like the general idea of this... But certain skaters will have more international competitions than others... And a Grand Prix event will of course be a tougher competition and perhaps scored tougher than a Senior B. But I definitely think examining the skaters' recent international scores/placements can help them make an educated and careful decision about which skaters can bring in the best scores at the Olympics.
    Last edited by gold12345; 06-25-2010 at 12:59 PM.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    Quote Originally Posted by gold12345 View Post
    I hope you are right, but I remember someone here during Nationals time who seemed to have inside info about this topic who said Evan absolutely would not have made the team had he placed 4th. I hope that person was mistaken.
    We cannot know if you are correct. But what would have happened if Evan had come in 4th? They could have bumped Mr. Bronze and put Even on the Olympic team. This is justifiable since Evan was Grand Prix Final and World champion. And the USFSA had already stated than ISU events would have been considered. Had they left Evan off the team, the U.S. Olympic committee would have screamed bloody murder, since Nationals was the only thing considered in picking the team. This makes it the Olympic qualifier, putting it under the control of the USOC.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    Haven't read the context in which this discussion arose, but I just want to say I still can't get over the fact that USFSA chose Mirai over Ashley for the Olympic/Worlds team. If they had simply stated Nationals as the sole criterion then I would not have been furious.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    That's always how it's been. Not sure why you'd expect different. Especially since Mirai was better than Ashley by a wide margin at Nationals.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    Yes, Mirai was better than Ashley by 4.08 extra wide points.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    Quote Originally Posted by PolymerBob View Post
    Yes, Mirai was better than Ashley by 4.08 extra wide points.
    Only because of bogus downgrades. She had 3 triples downgraded, I believe she only should have had 1 downgraded, if the other 2 had been ratified, that would have added about 7 points to her score, meaning the margin would have been 10-12 points which is quite substantial.

    Further, Mirai skated 2 clean (to the blind eye) programs, Ashley fell in the short and had a number of visible 2-foots and spins that weren't quite as good as they normally are (the bielman at the end in particular, it was at a standstill almost). Mirai skated a better competition overall.

    I also think that if Ashley had been more competitive at the GPF it maybe would have altered the decision, I know she came in 4th, but that was only because Joannie and Alena had complete meltdowns in the FS, if they had skated well Ashley would have been 5th or 6th. Further, she was a distant 4th, about 12 points out of 3rd and more than 20 points off 2nd and 1st. Finally, Yuna and Miki skated VERY conservatively with mistakes at the GPF and Ashley skated about as well as she could, and they still beat her by over 20 points. If the USFSA were to send Ashley to Vancouver, they knew what they could expect. Mirai was more of a wild card, but I think most people knew that she had a shot at doing better than Ashley and Rachael if she skated well, and that's what happened at the Olympics.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Mirai was more of a wild card, but I think most people knew that she had a shot at doing better than Ashley and Rachael if she skated well, and that's what happened at the Olympics.
    I agree with this. Even if they had truly considered the skaters' international results and not just selected the Olympic team based on Nationals placement, I still would have felt good about selecting Mirai over Ashley. Mirai just has better scoring potential... She had posted 62 pts for her SP at Cup of China, while Ashley's highest SP score on the Grand Prix was 56 pts. Mirai's highest LP score was 100 pts while Ashley's was 108 pts, but I recall Mirai having made multiple mistakes in that 100 pt LP while Ashley skated extremely well to earn that 108. To me, Mirai is just the better skater, and if she skated well at the Olympics, she was going to bring in better scores/placements than Ashley could.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    ^ Absolutely. I still maintain that our best bet is Nagasu/Flatt. Too bad they fell short in Torino. Nagasu may not even make next year's world team at this rate.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    It's hard to argue against people who believe they can justify claims based on assumptions/hypotheses and call them skaters' scoring potential, or by saying skater A is better than what the scores she received indicate because her jumps were "unfairly downgraded" at such and such competitions while not even mentioning how questionable some of the downgrades skater B's jumps received in different competitions.

    Well, not that I want to argue; I just wanted to voice the sentiment of the minority on this board. By minority I mean approximately two members on this board.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    Quote Originally Posted by gold12345 View Post
    I agree with this. Even if they had truly considered the skaters' international results and not just selected the Olympic team based on Nationals placement, I still would have felt good about selecting Mirai over Ashley. Mirai just has better scoring potential... She had posted 62 pts for her SP at Cup of China, while Ashley's highest SP score on the Grand Prix was 56 pts. Mirai's highest LP score was 100 pts while Ashley's was 108 pts, but I recall Mirai having made multiple mistakes in that 100 pt LP while Ashley skated extremely well to earn that 108. To me, Mirai is just the better skater, and if she skated well at the Olympics, she was going to bring in better scores/placements than Ashley could.
    Yeah, exactly. Also compared to some of the other skaters at the event I felt like Mirai's scores at SC were held down intentionally, whereas Ashley I don't think so. Further, even though her LP at SC had a number of mistakes, it was still MUCH better than her LP at CoC, and she did a clean SP at both competitions, so clearly she was on the upward swing. Also, her results from her junior days showed that the judges would reward her skating with big scores so long as she skated well (she scored 65+ for her SP at 2008 JW), and Ashley seemed to consistently get about the same scores, mid-50s for SP, mid-100s for LP. When Mirai finished 4th at the Olympics, I wasn't really surprised, I knew she had it in her, it was just more a matter of time until the judges realized she was really good and decided to give her the scores to show that.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    ^ Absolutely. I still maintain that our best bet is Nagasu/Flatt. Too bad they fell short in Torino. Nagasu may not even make next year's world team at this rate.

    Why would you say that about Nagasu rather than Flatt?

    And what would be your basis for saying it about either of them? Who is more likely "at this rate" to get the spots?

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    Quote Originally Posted by Spun Silver View Post

    Why would you say that about Nagasu rather than Flatt?

    And what would be your basis for saying it about either of them? Who is more likely "at this rate" to get the spots?
    Yeah, I want to know too. Nagasu did better the Flatt, overall, at the Olympics/Worlds.... But in any case, both performed strongly. Yes, they flubbed at worlds but, you know, so do did Yuna Kim. I always said it would have been amazing if Nagasu and Flatt went to worlds and performed the way they did at nats and the Olympics. It's hard to be near perfect three times in a row. I know they didn't get the three spots back but honestly, who is to say any of the American girls would have done better?
    Nagasu and Flatt both proved they can be strong under pressure and nats and the Olympics. Better than Sasha or Ashley or Gao or any of the rest. Hello? Ashley fell at nats, so did Sasha and so did Gao, for that matter. I can't believe some people are still arguing that Ashley should have been on the team instead of Mirai just because she made it to the GP final.

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    Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

    To clarify:

    I still maintain that our best bet is Nagasu/Flatt. Too bad they fell short in Torino.
    means I don't think we would have been better off with Wagner, or Zhang, or Czisny, etc. Most likely, (with all due respect to them) we'd be worse off. One cannot predict the performances a skater will have at a given time which is why I was having such a hard time with the comments saying we should have sent Flatt/Zhang in 2009 instead of Czisny/Flatt.

    Nagasu may not even make next year's world team at this rate.
    meant that none of the American girls is consistent at this point. With (still) only two spots, a solid routine from Flatt, a similar strong performance from Wagner...and a lackluster performance from Nagasu at next year's Nats, and guess who gets to watch Tokyo Worlds on TV? What I'm REALLY trying to say here is that next year's team is not a lock by any means.

    Admittedly, at the time I wrote the original post, I was a bit D&O from the USA's loss in the WC.

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