Tuktamysheva ready to make an impact

prettykeys said:

You guys have some weird ideas about 13 year-olds. At least where I came from, no one played with Barbies past the 2nd grade (7-8 years old.)

A regular 13 year old would be in grade 7 or grade 8. Some have already experienced menarche, many are capable of discussing political and philosophical ideas, science projects are old news (grades 4-6 mostly in our school) and making ethical statements about what people should or shouldn't do is a normal thing.

13 years is young, but some are on the cusp of consciousness. Just because a bunch of us here are older, doesn't mean that they have infantile thoughts. I remember myself at that age.

Click to expand...

^All very true.

Where I come from not many 13 year olds are landing 3A's so I think seniorita's idea that Liza may be playing with Barbies might be just as realistic as her landing 3A's in competition this season.

Maybe she will - but we have to remember the source of this is Camp Mishin - the same place where Plushy lands 4x4x4's in "practice.".

bekalc said:

Shelepen doesn't consistently land 7 triples. She didn't at Junior Worlds (had some issues at JGPF) and she didn't land 7 triples last week either.

Besides I think the judges will look at the skating not who tops the rankings. I mean after all they let Anna O win the short program at Junior Worlds last year, even though Murakami was the JGPF champion, and Anna had won nothing (but a silver medal) in the international season.

And Gao is not Cesario or Gong. Both those girls have technical issues with their jumps, which means they are at the mercy of callers. In contrast Christina has very good technique on her triples. They aren't super high and I don't get most of the hype but she has very good technique. Gao isn't comparable to those two.

And then there's Adelina who struggled at the end of last season (she's 13) but was reportedly amazing at her test skate. The girl won Russian Senior nationals at 12. She's capable of landng a lot of jumps and is a beautiful skater.

Click to expand...

Shelepen isn't "the" favorite, her PCS are never that high and apart from her jumps her skating really isn't that great. Further, she doesn't consistently land 7 triples in her FS, she had issues with her flip all last season and often left out the 3s-3t combo in her LP. Further, her 3lz-3t in the SP isn't that solid, she got it ratified at the JGPF, but then it was downgraded at Jr Worlds and at most of her other competitions last season and at Courcheval this season, she didn't even attempt it. And in Shelepen's case, she needs her TES to be very high to be at the top because her PCS are not great and neither is her packaging.

Anna in some ways can be considered a favorite because she won the SP at JW last season and earned the highest score of any junior ladies SP that season without a 3-3. She had issues in the LP but considering all that went wrong her score was still pretty high. Last season Anna was the one who had the PCS closest to Kanako's, and usually she achieved that with mistakes. At the JGPF, she turned out of her lutz combo in the SP and still scored higher than Gao who was clean and was nearly tied with Makarova who had a ratified 3-3. In the LP, Anna only did two 2-jump combos and had a fall and a step out and her score was almost identical to Maxwell's who had a (visibly) clean LP. The judges have made it clear that they really like Anna, and if she just manages to land her jumps, she will get very big scores. She doesn't need a 3-3 to win events she just usually makes a few too many mistakes and that's why she didn't win medals too many times last year, with a clean LP at junior worlds she may have edged out Kanako for the title. She won the FS at Jr. Nationals and that's clearly a deep field, and she didn't do a 3-3 in that program and still had a step out but her PCS were so big she won anyways. If Anna can recover from her injury and be more consistent this season, I could see her fairing like Kanako last season, winning events because of PCS even though other girls may be attempting more difficult jump content than she is.

As for Gao, she is different from Gong and Cesario because she consistently rotates her jumps. Gong and especially Cesario have had UR issues for a long time, yes they did well this summer but I think most people knew there was a chance they'd both get hit hard by URs in international competition and that's just what happened. Gao may not be the most complete skater yet but she is not prone to downgrades and therefore has an advantage. She doesn't have the best PCS but they are high enough and may become higher this season now that she has worked on improving her overall skating.

Gao must place top 3 in Austria first to be couned as a JGPF contender. That is not a guarantee. She seems to have some nerve issues. Can she handle it againt the field? I personally was never impressed by Gao hyping.

"Consistently" is a matter of definition. If there could be anyone who can earn near 60 pts TES in the FS, I can call her Shelepen's rival.

janetfan said:

Maybe she will - but we have to remember the source of this is Camp Mishin - the same place where Plushy lands 4x4x4's in "practice.".

Click to expand...

Haha ... but we saw Lizas 3A all in the video.

I don´t think, that there any favourit for the JGPFinal now. And to be fair, that´s all junior girls. It can happen everything and nobody knows what will happen in the next 5 JGP or at the final. In this age, it can always happen that you have a total meltdown. And when that happen in a JGP, you can miss the Final really easy.
So, we have to wait ... and it is always excited to see all this talented youngsters. We will have a lot of fun with all of them in the next years!

NMURA said:

Gao must place top 3 in Austria first to be couned as a JGPF contender. That is not a guarantee. She seems to have some nerve issues. Can she handle it againt the field? I personally was never impressed by Gao hyping.

"Consistently" is a matter of definition. If there could be anyone who can earn near 60 pts TES in the FS, I can call her Shelepen's rival.

Click to expand...

The international judges have made it clear, IMO, that they aren't too hot on Shelepen. They give her high TES because they have to, but she was outscored in PCS by 13 year old Nina Jiang who had an error-ridden FS. Shelepen is one of the older competitors on the JGP this season, and her PCS have not increased since last season. To me, it seems pretty obvious that the judges prefer someone like Nina or Anna to Shelepen, but they can't let a girl who makes too many mistakes win the competition. I bet a 5 triple FS from Anna would beat a 7 triple FS from Shelepen.

Christina has been scoring around 60 points for TES in her LPs over the summer and did so a couple times last year, I think she is very comparable to Shelepen. Adelina if she's on will probably outscore both Gao and Shelepen because her PCS are bound to be higher as her basic skating is of great quality.

NMURA said:

Gao must place top 3 in Austria first to be couned as a JGPF contender. That is not a guarantee. She seems to have some nerve issues. Can she handle it againt the field? I personally was never impressed by Gao hyping.

"Consistently" is a matter of definition. If there could be anyone who can earn near 60 pts TES in the FS, I can call her Shelepen's rival.

Click to expand...

If Gao doesn't than one of the girls who beats her may be Shelepen's rival. Fujisowa has talent too and I adore Polina A.

Shelepen is on of the most consistent skater at the junior level. Her worst result for the FS last season was about 97 points! That's why she is one of the favorites, she had mistakes sometimes, but never bombed or something, I mean at the international competitions. If Liza or Adelina will skate clean they will beat her, but so far Polina is more consistent than they are.
As for Gao, remember, her PCS last season were really low. Lower than Shelepen's. Yes, she is good jumper, but not as good as Polina. And she is not as consistent as Polina either.
And we forgot about Polina Agafonova, she won bronze at Junior Worlds and beat Gao, Shelepen and Ovcharova there. And she won Russian Junior Nationals, where she beat Liza and Adelina

bekalc said:

If Gao doesn't than one of the girls who beats her may be Shelepen's rival. Fujisowa has talent too and I adore Polina A.

Click to expand...

Very good point, the field is pretty deep this week. To me though, Shelepen is like Rachael Flatt of the junior ladies, she is pretty consistent with her jumps and packs the technical difficulty, but there are still a number of skaters who can beat her if they skate well. I see Adelina winning gold in Graz, Christina taking the silver, and then probably Agafonova getting bronze, with Fujisawa and Charbonneau (if she's doing better) as possible spoilers for bronze. Davis will be lucky to crack the top 5 in this field, realistically I see her placing 6th or 7th.

As for Gao, remember, her PCS last season were really low. Lower than Shelepen's. Yes, she is good jumper, but not as good as Polina.

Click to expand...

Christina's programs and presentation has improved. They are much nicer this year than last and to be frank Polina's programs are a hot mess. As for jumps, I disagree that Shelepen's jumps are better than Gao's, I guess Shelepen's jumps are higher, but I must agree with Aunt Joyce that Polina's jumps are pretty ugly too. I'm not one who will say Polina has no future whatsover, but I much prefer all of the other young Russians to her, and somebody really needs to do an intervention when it comes to those programs. They are awful. Unless a massive intervention is done with Shelepen in terms of presentation. I.e someone teaching her hot to hit nice positions, all of it, I pray very much that she gets buried by the incoming Russian talent, all of whom from what I've seen are much better in the areas I've mentioned.

And I love Polina A, she's a real talent.

Where I come from not many 13 year olds are landing 3A's so I think seniorita's idea that Liza may be playing with Barbies might be just as realistic as her landing 3A's in competition this season.

Maybe she will - but we have to remember the source of this is Camp Mishin - the same place where Plushy lands 4x4x4's in "practice.".

Click to expand...

The source in the end is a videotape where Liza landed a 3axel of a lot of quality. Whether that 3axel is rare from her remains to be seen, but we know she's capable of it. Plushenko's 3axel/4toe tape didn't show he could do it at all. Liza's 3axel tape shows she can.

And to be frank its not like Elizaveta even truly needs the 3axel in order to be competitive. This kid has all of the other 5 triples something neither Asada, Kim, Nagasu can say. The ability to do 3/3s etc. And she has nice presentation for her age. Its a matter of her learning how to compete at this level.

with Fujisawa and Charbonneau (if she's doing better) as possible spoilers for bronze. Davis will be lucky to crack the top 5 in this field, realistically I see her placing 6th or 7th.

Click to expand...

I don't know I really want to see how Fujisawa does. I actually really liked Fujisawa when she debuted two seasons ago. I think she had a really nice look about her (and her jumping technique was better than Murakamis) She also has really nice spins, and last I checked all the triples, right. I wonder if maybe there was just too much pressure last season given all that went down. But I'm not so sure we won't see her ready to compete with the best. I think she's the real Dark horse this season. And I'm not talking just about winning bronze at this competition, but I'm talking about her winning everything. I want to see if maybe last season was just a bad season for her.

prettykeys said:

You guys have some weird ideas about 13 year-olds. At least where I came from, no one played with Barbies past the 2nd grade (7-8 years old.)

Click to expand...

Where I come from not many 13 year olds are landing 3A's so I think seniorita's idea that Liza may be playing with Barbies might be just as realistic as her landing 3A's in competition this season.

Click to expand...

NO, I said it and just meant that she did enough in her gp for her age, thats all...and people had larger expectations while I think she handled the best she could for her first event. And I have seen her 3axels in videos.

Shelepen is like Rachael Flatt of the junior ladies, she is pretty consistent with her jumps and packs the technical difficulty, but there are still a number of skaters who can beat her if they skate well.

Click to expand...

Except for the fact that a lot of Flatt's issue were IMO things that couldn't be completely helped. I.e her body type etc. I never felt that Rachael wasn't really trying etc, that she was messy etc (although her skating skills could have continued to be improved)

I think a lot of Polina's issues really COULD be helped. She has a very long legged look which could look nice if someone taught her how. The programs don't have to look the way they do either.

I'm personally not that inclined to get on a skater for things they can't completely help. But a lot of Polina's issues truly could be helped if her Team made the effort to make her skating beautiful.

bekalc said:

Christina's programs and presentation has improved. They are much nicer this year than last and to be frank Polina's programs are a hot mess.

Click to expand...

Not enough. Christina's skating skills are still weak and not the best presentation either. As for Polina, she started training only about 2 weeks before JGP and from what I saw she improved her skating too and her spins are really better than last season (and much better than Gao's). Her programs were empty, but the season is just begun and Polina didn't train for a while because of her knees problems, I think she will improve and will be better at her second event.

bekalc said:

As for jumps, I disagree that Shelepen's jumps are better than Gao's, I guess Shelepen's jumps are higher, but I must agree with Aunt Joyce that Polina's jumps are pretty ugly too.

Click to expand...

But she can land her jumps and did difficult 3-3 and 2A-3T several times at the JGP and JW (and Gao didn't). She didn't get any downgrades or edge calls in France (and Gao didn't fix her flutz)

I don't think there is a judges' pet like Murakami in this season... So someone lands as many triples will win.

NMURA said:

I don't think there is a judges' pet like Murakami in this season... So someone lands as many triples will win.

Click to expand...

If Anna O recovers from her injury and is fairly consistent this season, I think she could be the judges pet like Murakami was last season. But she has to skate well enough to earn it.

Lucky Star said:

Not enough. Christina's skating skills are still weak and not the best presentation either. As for Polina, she started training only about 2 weeks before JGP and from what I saw she improved her skating too and her spins are really better than last season (and much better than Gao's). Her programs were empty, but the season is just begun and Polina didn't train for a while because of her knees problems, I think she will improve and will be better at her second event.

But she can land her jumps and did difficult 3-3 and 2A-3T several times at the JGP and JW (and Gao didn't). She didn't get any downgrades or edge calls in France (and Gao didn't fix her flutz)

Click to expand...

Gao did fix her flutz. She didn't receive an edge call for it at Thornhill Summer Skate last month. It may not be perfect, but Gao's flutz is as fixed as Shelepen's lip is - I think for both girls whether they get an edge call or not will depend on the caller.

NMURA said:

I don't think there is a judges' pet like Murakami in this season... So someone lands as many triples will win.

Click to expand...

silverlake22 said:

If Anna O recovers from her injury and is fairly consistent this season, I think she could be the judges pet like Murakami was last season. But she has to skate well enough to earn it.

Click to expand...

I think we need just wait and see Adelina's scores in Austria and especially her PCS... Something tells me she can earn it...

bekalc said:

Except for the fact that a lot of Flatt's issue were IMO things that couldn't be completely helped. I.e her body type etc. I never felt that Rachael wasn't really trying etc, that she was messy etc (although her skating skills could have continued to be improved)

I think a lot of Polina's issues really COULD be helped. She has a very long legged look which could look nice if someone taught her how. The programs don't have to look the way they do either.

I'm personally not that inclined to get on a skater for things they can't completely help. But a lot of Polina's issues truly could be helped if her Team made the effort to make her skating beautiful.

Click to expand...

Polina has the potential to be a nice elegant skater but the fact is that she hasn't worked on her weaknesses yet. And I really don't think Rachael's body type prevents her from doing better spins or skating faster or even being more flexible. I mean, Elene G is much curvier than Rachael, and she is very flexible and can spin well. Ashley and Joannie have muscular builds and while they may not be super flexible, they can spin very well and skate fast. It seems like Rachael focuses most of her attention on getting all her triples consistent and mastering difficult 3-3s instead of focusing on the areas where she needs to improve - the same can be said about Shelepen.

NMURA said:

I don't think there is a judges' pet like Murakami in this season... So someone lands as many triples will win.

Click to expand...

I think that you need wait and see if a Judges pet emerges. Adelina has potential judges pet written all over her. Liza will be liked better too when she lands her jumps.

Not enough. Christina's skating skills are still weak and not the best presentation either. As for Polina, she started training only about 2 weeks before JGP and from what I saw she improved her skating too and her spins are really better than last season (and much better than Gao's). Her programs were empty, but the season is just begun and Polina didn't train for a while because of her knees problems, I think she will improve and will be better at her second event.

Click to expand...

Its not like Polina has great skating skills herself. And the issue wasn't that the programs were empty. The issue was the programs in and of themselves, the choregraphy it did have, and the fact that Polina is messy. For the most part in the way she positions and holds her body. Frankly, if I were her coach I actually would at this point give her less choregraphy and teach her how to use her arms to the music, and hit the choregraphy she does have beautifully. Given her more would frankly make it worse.

And watching Gao's short especially, Gao's positioning, attention to the music is better-a lot better than Polina's.

And as for Gao not getting an edge call at Thornhills, that I absolutely think needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Polina has the potential to be a nice elegant skater but the fact is that she hasn't worked on her weaknesses yet. And I really don't think Rachael's body type prevents her from doing better spins or skating faster or even being more flexible. I mean, Elene G is much curvier than Rachael, and she is very flexible and can spin well. Ashley and Joannie have muscular builds and while they may not be super flexible, they can spin very well and skate fast. It seems like Rachael focuses most of her attention on getting all her triples consistent and mastering difficult 3-3s instead of focusing on the areas where she needs to improve - the same can be said about Shelepen.

Click to expand...

Well this part is true. A part of me thinks its Rachael's coach. Does Tom Z just have his skaters spend all their time jumping? If Agnes especially was given some stroking classes she'd be top 3 in the world.

Lucky Star said:

I think we need just wait and see Adelina's scores in Austria and especially her PCS... Something tells me she can earn it...

Click to expand...

I'm in agreement. Adelina is great. I think if Adelina, Anna, and Shelepen were all competing against each other and all skated well, both Adelina and Anna would beat Shelepen even if they didn't do 3-3s and Shelepen did. They are just better all around skaters than Shelepen. Adelina moves like a ballerina out on the ice and skates with speed and elegance. Anna has a contagious charisma out on the ice and sells her programs for all they are worth, her choreography, musicality, and step sequences are unmatched by the other ladies, and this is visible in her scores, 2 judges at JW gave her 7s for PCS in her SP.

Here's Polina's FS 2 years ago. I think it's wonderful and suits her so much.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3Qb7ARRB1A