U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

Layfan · Oct 8, 2010

silverlake22 said:
I am also really impressed with Gao this season, it seems like she has really worked on her presentation and maturity and it shows. The US ladies will likely have a hard time winning silver in the Czech Republic next week as it is a loaded field, but who knows, it still could happen. I really hope to see Gao compete at some senior international events this season, be it 4CC or Worlds or both, as I'm curious to see how she would place among the senior ladies. Yasmin Siraj also put up a big score in Sheffield last week and is poised to make a splash at nationals this season and maybe even medal. Nice to see so much fresh new talent !

Indeed! Yasmin has wonderful qualities. Nationals could be very interesting. And it'll be so interesting to see who ends up being a factor in Sochi. I'm pretty hopeful for a great 2014 U.S. ladies team. If only we just get those three spots back. But I'm pretty hopeful about that, too.

R.D. · Oct 9, 2010

Yes, let's hope. I still think it will take another season for the newcomers to show up, but then again- 4 years is a long time and one of two things happen: the current crop raises their game, or flatlines while the newcomers struggle with growth and consistency, then fall off the radar, or the newcomers completely wipe the current crop off the map, as happened in 2008.

bigsisjiejie · Oct 9, 2010

silverlake22 said:
I am also really impressed with Gao this season, it seems like she has really worked on her presentation and maturity and it shows. The US ladies will likely have a hard time winning silver in the Czech Republic next week as it is a loaded field, but who knows, it still could happen. I really hope to see Gao compete at some senior international events this season, be it 4CC or Worlds or both, as I'm curious to see how she would place among the senior ladies. Yasmin Siraj also put up a big score in Sheffield last week and is poised to make a splash at nationals this season and maybe even medal. Nice to see so much fresh new talent !

Guess I'm seeing the cup as half-empty where you are seeing it as half-full, but so far, Gao does not impress me all that much. She may have improved, but even with improvements plus a year of intl Junior competition under her belt already, it's still not good enough to beat the 13- and 14-year old Russian girls who just entered the scene. IMO, Gao still skates far more juniorish than I'd expect for a 16-year old who's been skating as long as she has. I hope we DON'T see her at Sr intl competition this year--she'd get eaten up alive. (Well, maybe she'd do OK in a depleted field at 4 Continents, but I never take that competition too seriously anyway.) I doubt that she will be a podium threat at US Nationals unless the bigger guns shoot themselves in the foot, but even if she does, if I were on the committee, there's no way I'd send her to Sr Worlds in 2011. I think she's being eyed for Jr. Worlds though. Sorry to be a party pooper, but I see a lot more upside future potential in Siraj.

miki88 · Oct 9, 2010

bigsisjiejie said:
Guess I'm seeing the cup as half-empty where you are seeing it as half-full, but so far, Gao does not impress me all that much. She may have improved, but even with improvements plus a year of intl Junior competition under her belt already, it's still not good enough to beat the 13- and 14-year old Russian girls who just entered the scene. IMO, Gao still skates far more juniorish than I'd expect for a 16-year old who's been skating as long as she has. I hope we DON'T see her at Sr intl competition this year--she'd get eaten up alive. (Well, maybe she'd do OK in a depleted field at 4 Continents, but I never take that competition too seriously anyway.) I doubt that she will be a podium threat at US Nationals unless the bigger guns shoot themselves in the foot, but even if she does, if I were on the committee, there's no way I'd send her to Sr Worlds in 2011. I think she's being eyed for Jr. Worlds though. Sorry to be a party pooper, but I see a lot more upside future potential in Siraj.

I agree. Christina has improved since Nationals but the Russian juniors are just too good! Besides Siraj, I also see potential in Nina Jiang, whom I feel has more polish despite being younger than Christina.

Layfan · Oct 9, 2010

bigsisjiejie said:
Guess I'm seeing the cup as half-empty where you are seeing it as half-full, but so far, Gao does not impress me all that much. She may have improved, but even with improvements plus a year of intl Junior competition under her belt already, it's still not good enough to beat the 13- and 14-year old Russian girls who just entered the scene. IMO, Gao still skates far more juniorish than I'd expect for a 16-year old who's been skating as long as she has. I hope we DON'T see her at Sr intl competition this year--she'd get eaten up alive. (Well, maybe she'd do OK in a depleted field at 4 Continents, but I never take that competition too seriously anyway.) I doubt that she will be a podium threat at US Nationals unless the bigger guns shoot themselves in the foot, but even if she does, if I were on the committee, there's no way I'd send her to Sr Worlds in 2011. I think she's being eyed for Jr. Worlds though. Sorry to be a party pooper, but I see a lot more upside future potential in Siraj.

I think we just have wait and see if Christina's weaknesses are too ingrained or if she is a late bloomer who will peak closer to her late teens and early 20s. It usually doesn't happen that way but there are times. Nancy Kerrigan and Irina Slutskaya, for example.

Here is Irina at, I believe, 16, skating at junior worlds the same year a younger Michelle Kwan barely missed the podium at senior worlds. Irina won juniors. Still, she wasn't nearly the skater she became by the time she won her first world championship six years later and certainly no where near the level she was when she won her second worlds with an amazing skate 10 years later!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iL1ge_Bsuo

silverlake22 · Oct 9, 2010

miki88 said:
I agree. Christina has improved since Nationals but the Russian juniors are just too good! Besides Siraj, I also see potential in Nina Jiang, whom I feel has more polish despite being younger than Christina.

I like Nina too and think she has a lot of potential especially considering she is only 13! Apparently she recently landed a 3lz too, which is really exciting. I think she has a good shot at winning the junior title at nationals this year.

It's not Russian juniors in general, it's two girls, Adelina and Liza, who have both medaled at senior nationals the past two years, that are better than Christina now, and it's not like they are even that much better. Those girls are wunderkinds, they would most definitely be beating Zhang, Czisny, and Wagner if those girls were competing against them on the JGP. Christina is still better than Shelepen, Sheveleva, Agafonova if you compare their scores this season, and Anna's injured this season so she is a non-factor for now

I hardly think Christina would get eaten alive in seniors, considering the scores she earned at her 2 competitions this season on the JGP would have qualified her for the senior GPF last season. Plus most of the US ladies, apart from Nagasu and Flatt when she's on, struggle to put up a FS score of 108-109, and Christina's done it twice, in junior competition where PCS are lower and there is one less element in the FS. You have to give credit where credit is due. She scored 167 in Graz, that is a big score. If we see Wagner, Czisny, Zhang, and Flatt topping that score on the GP this season, then we can start talking, but until then, she's one of the best US senior ladies at the moment, IMO behind only a healthy Nagasu and an "on" Flatt, and maybe comparable to Agnes and Yasmin.

miki88 · Oct 9, 2010

silverlake22 said:
I hardly think Christina would get eaten alive in seniors, considering the scores she earned at her 2 competitions this season on the JGP would have qualified her for the senior GPF last season. Plus most of the US ladies, apart from Nagasu and Flatt when she's on, struggle to put up a FS score of 108-109, and Christina's done it twice, in junior competition where PCS are lower and there is one less element in the FS. You have to give credit where credit is due. She scored 167 in Graz, that is a big score. If we see Wagner, Czisny, Zhang, and Flatt topping that score on the GP this season, then we can start talking, but until then, she's one of the best US senior ladies at the moment, IMO behind only a healthy Nagasu and an "on" Flatt, and maybe comparable to Agnes and Yasmin.

You're right. I think on the national scene, she's really only behind Mirai as of now. But I was comparing her with the two Russian phenoms, because I think they are the ones who will eventually be her main rivals. The way Eliza and Adelina dominated the junior scenes so far reminds me of Mao and Yuna as juniors. So I fear that Christina may get overshadowed by these two in the future.

fairly4 · Oct 9, 2010

as much as i would like to critique silverlake22 for the comments regarding skimpy costumes and juding the skaters by the way they look.
i can't the person is right on target about that. we do judge them by how they look in the costume , how the "big", or "little" they are, why maybe it goes toward how well they skate, whether they can jump correctly or not, how good overall the skater looks with the costume, music and skate.
to a point we do judge them by how they look whether we realize it or not.
all i can say is at nationals --the already senior skaters better be prepared becomes some of the junior skaters are coming on strong like yasmin, gao-even though she skated at seniors last year, and agnes.
mirai and rachel better be on their best--if they want to stay ahead of the pack--in other words rachel better skate better and faster than she did at glacier summer competition skate and mirai better skate like she did at the olympics last year. sorry but the competition is going to fierce at U.s nationals and the way it looks even worse at russian senior nationals provided all the junior skater skate senior.
japan nationals isn't going to be a cakewalk either. so all girls are going to have to fight for it.

Mrs. P · Oct 9, 2010

silverlake22 said:
I like Nina too and think she has a lot of potential especially considering she is only 13! Apparently she recently landed a 3lz too, which is really exciting. I think she has a good shot at winning the junior title at nationals this year.

It's not Russian juniors in general, it's two girls, Adelina and Liza, who have both medaled at senior nationals the past two years, that are better than Christina now, and it's not like they are even that much better. Those girls are wunderkinds, they would most definitely be beating Zhang, Czisny, and Wagner if those girls were competing against them on the JGP. Christina is still better than Shelepen, Sheveleva, Agafonova if you compare their scores this season, and Anna's injured this season so she is a non-factor for now

I hardly think Christina would get eaten alive in seniors, considering the scores she earned at her 2 competitions this season on the JGP would have qualified her for the senior GPF last season. Plus most of the US ladies, apart from Nagasu and Flatt when she's on, struggle to put up a FS score of 108-109, and Christina's done it twice, in junior competition where PCS are lower and there is one less element in the FS. You have to give credit where credit is due. She scored 167 in Graz, that is a big score. If we see Wagner, Czisny, Zhang, and Flatt topping that score on the GP this season, then we can start talking, but until then, she's one of the best US senior ladies at the moment, IMO behind only a healthy Nagasu and an "on" Flatt, and maybe comparable to Agnes and Yasmin.

And I still can't get over she scored 108 with major -GOE and fall on the flip. That actually speaks to her nerves. I noticed with the U.S. ladies is that when they fall apart on one element everything else seems to go with it. If you look at the rest of the elements she only had one -1 in the rest of her elements.

miki88 said:
You're right. I think on the national scene, she's really only behind Mirai as of now. But I was comparing her with the two Russian phenoms, because I think they are the ones who will eventually be her main rivals. The way Eliza and Adelina dominated the junior scenes so far reminds me of Mao and Yuna as juniors. So I fear that Christina may get overshadowed by these two in the future.

I guess the one thing to remember, however, is that junior dominance doesn't always equal senior dominance. I think in this case we have a pretty good chance that this, but RD's right, four years is a long time.

If you take a close look at this competition -- Liza really dominated this competition because Gao's fall in the SP (which cost her about 10 points when you factor the -GOE and the deduction for the fall). if Gao was clean her score would have matched Liza's even maybe squeaked by.

In the FP, Liza won by five points. That can all be pointed to the one fall Gao had on her flip.

Also if Gao did not fall on her flip, she would have successfully done a 7-triple program. (3Z, 2-3F, 3L, 2-3T, 3S)

Liza's (2-3Z, 3F, 3S, 3L, 2-3S)

Highest scoring elements by order of point value
3Z-3T (Liza) - 11.20 vs 3F-3T (Christina) - 10.30 (Liza)
3S-2T-2L (Liza) - 8.10 vs 3Z-2T-2L (Christina) - 9.50 (Christina)
3Z (Liza) - 7 vs 3L (Christina) - 6.31* (Liza)
2A-2A SEQ (Liza) - 6.31* vs 3T-2T (Christina) - 6.25* (Christina)
3L (Liza) - 6.31* vs 3S (Christina) - 4.90 (Liza)
3F (Liza) - 6.1 vs 3S (Liza) -5.02* (Liza)
3S (Liza) -5.02* vs 3F (Christina/fall) - 3.73* (Liza)

PLUS:
2A (Christina) - 3.92*

Point is that Liza dominates because she has that second lutz. Christina has the potential to keep up, but she will definitely have some work ahead of her and she has to be clean!

bigsisjiejie · Oct 9, 2010

miki88 said:
You're right. I think on the national scene, she's really only behind Mirai as of now. But I was comparing her with the two Russian phenoms, because I think they are the ones who will eventually be her main rivals. The way Eliza and Adelina dominated the junior scenes so far reminds me of Mao and Yuna as juniors. So I fear that Christina may get overshadowed by these two in the future.

Surely, you cannot possibly be serious in your analysis of US national ladies situation. In addition to Nagasu, the only way Christina right now could beat a Flatt, a Wagner, or even a Zawadski or a Czisny is if each of those screw up and beat themselves. Put another way, IF every one of the US national ladies' contenders skated to their full capacity, Gao would be behind them all, at least in this season. She might even have trouble staying ahead of Zhang, assuming we see some of Caroline's anticipated improvements. Gao's placement at nationals last year was mainly due to the fact that she stayed upright and reasonably clean, while others who should have--didn't. Yes, this could happen again this year and she could place well, but that still doesn't address the crux of the matter--her overall skating just isn't "there" yet, and her on-ice presence is rather bland.

However, the above point about possibly blooming later is valid, she is still young and has time to keep developing. But 2010-2011 season feels a bit early to start crowning her next US ice princess.

Layfan · Oct 9, 2010

bigsisjiejie said:
Surely, you cannot possibly be serious in your analysis of US national ladies situation. In addition to Nagasu, the only way Christina right now could beat a Flatt, a Wagner, or even a Zawadski or a Czisny is if each of those screw up and beat themselves. Put another way, IF every one of the US national ladies' contenders skated to their full capacity, Gao would be behind them all, at least in this season. She might even have trouble staying ahead of Zhang, assuming we see some of Caroline's anticipated improvements. Gao's placement at nationals last year was mainly due to the fact that she stayed upright and reasonably clean, while others who should have--didn't. Yes, this could happen again this year and she could place well, but that still doesn't address the crux of the matter--her overall skating just isn't "there" yet, and her on-ice presence is rather bland.

However, the above point about possibly blooming later is valid, she is still young and has time to keep developing. But 2010-2011 season feels a bit early to start crowning her next US ice princess.

nobody's crowning her anything yet

We all agree she has a lot to prove. Not sure why are you counting her out so much, though. Her jumps are better than Wagner's or Czisny's. And I like her ice presence better than Flatt's, personally. Besides, staying upright isn't nothing. It's a feat in itself at the senior level and given the track record, sadly, it's not inconceivable that nationals will be another splatfest, although I hope not.

R.D. · Oct 9, 2010

bigsisjiejie said:
Surely, you cannot possibly be serious in your analysis of US national ladies situation. In addition to Nagasu, the only way Christina right now could beat a Flatt, a Wagner, or even a Zawadski or a Czisny is if each of those screw up and beat themselves. Put another way, IF every one of the US national ladies' contenders skated to their full capacity, Gao would be behind them all, at least in this season. She might even have trouble staying ahead of Zhang, assuming we see some of Caroline's anticipated improvements. Gao's placement at nationals last year was mainly due to the fact that she stayed upright and reasonably clean, while others who should have--didn't. Yes, this could happen again this year and she could place well, but that still doesn't address the crux of the matter--her overall skating just isn't "there" yet, and her on-ice presence is rather bland.

However, the above point about possibly blooming later is valid, she is still young and has time to keep developing. But 2010-2011 season feels a bit early to start crowning her next US ice princess.

I more or less agree with this assessment. But we'll find out in a few weeks where our Big Guns stand currently, and then we can go from there.

janetfan · Oct 9, 2010

Every skater can hope to improve - but I didn't find 15 year old Christina "bland" last season at Natls. To the contrary parts of her skating draw me in at times and I think her ice presence is above average.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyIaPKkBIMQ

R.D. · Oct 9, 2010

Layfan said:
It's a feat in itself at the senior level and given the track record, sadly, it's not inconceivable that nationals will be another splatfest, although I hope not.

Actually, in recent years Nationals (on a whole) has been pretty well-skated. We saw it this year, we saw it in 2008. The last real so-called "splatfest" I can remember is back in 2006. I think EVERYBODY in the top 4 or 5 messed up somehow. The one that screwed up the least won, and that was Cohen.

Layfan · Oct 9, 2010

I seem to remember that everyone fell at least once in 2010 except for Mirai and Rachael.

As for the above posts, I just have trouble thinking of any of the U.S. ladies as "big guns." Mirai and Rachael will have the most expectations on their shoulders I suppose because they made the Olympics and did well there. But all the ladies have a lot to prove and I just don't really think of them as "big guns." Sorry.

R.D. · Oct 9, 2010

Layfan said:
I seem to remember that everyone fell at least once in 2010 except for Mirai and Rachael.

As for the above posts, I just have trouble thinking of any of the U.S. ladies as "big guns." Mirai and Rachael will have the most expectations on their shoulders I suppose because they made the Olympics and did well there. But all the ladies have a lot to prove and I just don't really think of them as "big guns." Sorry.

Ah, I expected this. Notice I said *OUR* Big Guns, not *THE* Big Guns.

In the big scheme of things of course they aren't. But nationally, can anyone beat them at this point? That remains to be seen but on a national scale I don't think it can be discounted that they have asserted themselves as the top crop for the past three years.

janetfan · Oct 9, 2010

R.D. said:
Actually, in recent years Nationals (on a whole) has been pretty well-skated. We saw it this year, we saw it in 2008. The last real so-called "splatfest" I can remember is back in 2006. I think EVERYBODY in the top 4 or 5 messed up somehow. The one that screwed up the least won, and that was Cohen.

I sure hope one of our "big guns" can find a way to "scew up" enough to make World and Olympic podiums the way Sasha did.

Maybe Mirai has enough talent...................

Layfan · Oct 9, 2010

I knew what you meant but I still have a hard time thinking of them as big guns. They are in the top crop because they've been around in seniors for a while. But I think everyone is the top crop is imminently beatable. I suppose I'd have to say Rachael, Mirai and Ashley are favorites in the top three with Caroline and Alissa being wild cards. But Gao and Agnes and other can beat them. And it wouldn't be as stunning as as some junior skater beating the old "big guns," say, Michelle, Sasha and Sarah in 2002. Anyway, it'll be fun.

I sure hope one of our "big guns" can find a way to "scew up" enough to make World and Olympic podiums the way Sasha did.

Maybe Mirai has enough talent...................

Heh. Or win worlds the way Kimmie did.

R.D. · Oct 9, 2010

Layfan said:
I knew what you meant but I still have a hard time thinking of them as big guns. They are in the top crop because they've been around in seniors for a while. But I think everyone is the top crop is imminently beatable. I suppose I'd have to say Rachael, Mirai and Ashley are favorites in the top three with Caroline and Alissa being wild cards. But Gao and Agnes and other can beat them. And it wouldn't be as stunning as as some junior skater beating the old "big guns," say, Michelle, Sasha and Sarah in 2002. Anyway, it'll be fun.

It could happen, yes. I'm not sure it will, but doesn't mean it couldn't.

Layfan · Oct 9, 2010

R.D. said:
It could happen, yes. I'm not sure it will, but doesn't mean it couldn't.

I'm betting on a few surprises. I don't know if it'll be Christina or Agnes or Yasmin but I just have this feeling. Still, I'm rooting for the (slightly) older girls to have their year, especially Ashley. It'd be really fun to watch Ashley skate well at worlds and help the U.S. win back three spots. I know it would mean so much to her and it would just be a fun moment to watch. It'd be even more amazing to see a comeback from Alissa but I don't want to get too crazy here

U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

Layfan

R.D.

bigsisjiejie

miki88

Layfan

silverlake22

miki88

fairly4

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

bigsisjiejie

Layfan

R.D.

janetfan

Match Penalty

R.D.

Layfan

R.D.

janetfan

Match Penalty

Layfan

R.D.

Layfan

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