U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread | Page 5 | Golden Skate

U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
It appears that Worlds is valued more highly than the US Championship for the purposes of funding. Make the podium at Worlds, you are in Team A, Tier 1. Maximum $$$$$$. Your National placement is irrelevant.
Win US Nationals, you are in Team A, but not necessarily Tier 1. You still have to do a little work to make Tier 1.


Not really. Reverse it. The person who made the podium at worlds ALREADY had do "a little work" to finish 2nd or third at nationals. Basically, the second place or third place finisher at nats has to actually medal at world to get tier 1. But the champion only has to finish 10. I mean, that made it very difficult for Mirai to get tier 1 - but not so much for Rachael. It actually sounds to me like the rules protect the national champion. A top 10 finish is normally not too much to ask for the USA champion. It was for Alissa and Jeremy, I guess, but I'd argue that they LOST tier 1 status when it should have been in bag. It's the second and third place national finishers who are asked "to do a little work" for their tier 1 status, not the national champ.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
I think the same misunderstanding keeps popping up. We were discussing funding envelopes. I will amend my post to avoid confusion.

OK, thanks and sorry if I missed your point.
I think we all can agree that team funding and Natl team slection criteria are totally different things.

In case I ever gave you the impression that Worlds are not important let me tell you how I view it.

Biggest prize in skating - Olympic medals

Next biggest - WC medals.

Next biggest could differ. If you are Yuna undoubtably a GPF medal comes next since Yuna is from a small federation and doesn't even have to compete at her own Natls.

For US skaters it could vary but I believe most would rather be our Natl champion than the GPF champion.

In Japan it might be similar. Japanese Natls is big and I think the skaters from Japan take great pride in being Natl Champion.

For a skater from Estonia the GPF medal might mean more because they have a small federation.

Nationals has always been big in the US. It has a long and storied tradition.
I remember Sasha crying when she finaly won the US Championship. Alissa too. I dont think I saw Sasha cry at the GPF.
I don't think it meant as much to her as finaly winning the US title.
 
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Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Bob - show me a post where anybody said Worlds was not important.

I think the only people who feel that worlds are not important are the U.S. television networks (together,perhaps with the average U.S. spectator.)

The ISU has to scramble to get any kind of coverage at all for worlds. I doubt if many casual sports fans in the United States even know when the world championship is going on. In contrast, up to now the USFSA has done everything it could to promote the U.S. championships, and also, to a lesser extent, Skate America. At least these events got some prime time coverage.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
I think the only people who feel that worlds are not important are the U.S. television networks (together,perhaps with the average U.S. spectator.)

The ISU has to scramble to get any kind of coverage at all for worlds. I doubt if many casual sports fans in the United States even know when the world championship is going on. In contrast, up to now the USFSA has done everything it could to promote the U.S. championships, and also, to a lesser extent, Skate America. At least these events got some prime time coverage.

It is the job of US Skating to promote their own National championship. We could say it is also their job to help sell Worlds to the US public. But US Skating does not negociate the TV contracts for Worlds. That would be Speedy.
Is it any wonder we have such poor coverage :think:
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
It is the job of US Skating to promote their own National championship. We could say it is also their job to help sell Worlds to the US public. But US Skating does not negociate the TV contracts for Worlds. That would be Speedy.

Is it any wonder we have such poor coverage :think:

And Speedy is not pleased that the USFSA is not doing what he feels is their share in promoting interest in the USU program in the United States. If I remember correctly the ISU threatened to withhold ISU funding for Skate America last year because the USFSA di not make any effort to secure coverage for the rest of the Grand Prix.

Ironically, when figure skating was riding high and bringing in big bucks, eveyone praised Cinquanta for his financial acumen. (He is an accountant in real life.) Maybe Speedy is ahead of the curve after all by shifting the emphasis to the Asian market.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Well, you might be disappointed there. Here are the Team A, Tier 1 criteria for the 2009 - 2010 season.

Team A - Tier 1

-Medalists (top three) at the 2009 World Championships
-2009 U.S. senior champions

And here are the Team A, Tier 1 criteria for the 2010 - 2011 season.

Team A - Tier 1
-Placements 1st-3rd at the 2011 ISU World Figure Skating Championships
-2011 U.S. senior champion combined with a top-10 finish at 2011 ISU World Figure Skating Championships.

Actually, the more I think about it, no, I don't like this change at all. These kids are still our champions no matter what. If they suffer later disappointments internationally, all the more reason to give them a big group hug, not snatch the funding rug out from under them. :disagree:
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
Back on topic - sort of :)

Here is what US Natls is all about:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rJX0_QqCTE

Watch her reaction at the end. It was about the thrill of skating so well at her own National championship that evoked this joyous reaction. I don't think she would have reacted the same at any other event including the Olympics, GPF or Worlds.

Nationals is special! So is this skater - and it was my favorite moment of the season :rock:
 

PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
Actually, the more I think about it, no, I don't like this change at all. These kids are still our champions no matter what. If they suffer later disappointments internationally, all the more reason to give them a big group hug, not snatch the funding rug out from under them. :disagree:

Well, I cannot say that it’s right or wrong, and I WILL NOT say that it's right or wrong. But I think I know why the rule change took place. It was what happened in the latter half of the 2008-2009 season.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
R.D. tried to make a case for 2010 speculating that Ashley would have made the team instead of Mirai if she hadn't fallen on her SP. Mayyyybeee... OTH, if that's how they were thinking you would think they would have given Rachael better treatment, given her fifth place finish at 2009 worlds which is really more impressive than Ashley's fourth at the GP final. Yet Rachael placed third in the SP behind Cohen and Mirai even though Rachael had no clear mistakes. They gave Mirai 70. I mean, they placed her ahead of Sasha Cohen.... My point is, you can try to read into things but in the end, the top two finishers were the ones with the two best skates in 2010. Not the ones with the better results at the GP or any of the rest.

The more accurate thing to say is that they placed Cohen behind Nagasu, as Nagasu went early. But Cohen flubbed a jumping pass.

In general, you're right. In 2010, Flatt and Nagasu gave the Committee no choice but to send them to the Games.

The referees can make calls in a team's favor, but it won't do any good if the team sucks that night...or the other team blows them away.

Like Janetfan said, I still think rep scoring is rampant at Nationals, but it's not quite as simple as stating that they favor GP results, as it appears we can find just as many counterexamples of that as we can examples.

To clarify, my point that Wagner would have made the team if she hadn't fallen had nothing to do with her GP results. Rather, it's to say that even WITH the fall she was quite close to getting on the team. Nagasu was always prone to DGs- the real question is (and I said this before)...whether Nagasu would have gotten the benefit of the doubt on the URs had she not been docked at SC. But regardless, I think a clean Wagner would have been marked ahead of a clean Nagasu, and that would be accomplished by giving Nagasu DGs in the freeskate. At least in 2010 that would have been the case. In 2011, now that Nagasu has some international rep, it will be interesting to see how she is marked relative to her competitors. Maybe it won't make any difference (it shouldn't).

I remember Sasha crying when she finaly won the US Championship. Alissa too.

Really? I sort of remember Czisny being a little emotional but Cohen?
 
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PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
Not really. Reverse it. The person who made the podium at worlds ALREADY had do "a little work" to finish 2nd or third at nationals. Basically, the second place or third place finisher at nats has to actually medal at world to get tier 1. But the champion only has to finish 10. I mean, that made it very difficult for Mirai to get tier 1 - but not so much for Rachael.

Yes, but Tanith and Ben did not compete at the 2009 National Championships due to injury. They were granted a bye to Worlds and made the podium. That put them in Tier 1, both under the old and new rules.

I'm not a lawyer, but in the court of law, they have a concept they call "res ipsa loquitur", which essentially means evedence so compelling that no more need be provided. The World podium is "res ipsa loquitur" as far as Tier 1 funding is concerned, but National champion is not.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
It would have been even better if she actually won ;) anyway, she still seemed really happy with her score, which is good.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
It would have been even better if she actually won ;) anyway, she still seemed really happy with her score, which is good.

Actually I think Mirai won quite alot. :)
She won the crowd.
She won the hearts of new fans across the US.
She won new international fans.

Frank was just beaming at the boards and I think she won him over too.
And she achieved her goal which was to win a spot on the US Olympic team.

Mirai also won over the NBC broadacasting crew who praised her skating far above the others.

And let's not forget her "winning" interviews where she had the press eating out of her hands.

She won an important sponser in Panasonic, who made it possible for her father to see her skate in Vancouver.

All things considered I would say Mirai delivered a winning performance at Nationals and then at the Olympics too. :yes:
 
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Joined
Jun 21, 2003
But regardless, I think a clean Wagner would have been marked ahead of a clean Nagasu, and that would be accomplished by giving Nagasu DGs in the freeskate.

Maybe. But I am willing to give the technical caller the benefit of the doubt, at least for basic honesty.

I think he downgraded Mirai's jumps because he thought they were underrotated, not because he was jockeying for position trying to make Mirai come out between Rachael and Ashley.

The World podium is "res ipsa loquitur" as far as Tier 1 funding is concerned, but National champion is not.

It depends on what the purpose of "Tier 1 funding" is.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
With all this talk about "Tier 1" vs. "Tier 2", exactly how much money are we talking about? Is it that big of a difference?
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
My point is, you can try to read into things but in the end, the top two finishers were the ones with the two best skates in 2010. Not the ones with the better results at the GP or any of the rest.

I think the clearest test came in pairs. Dependable world top ten performers Inoue and Baldwin were barely nipped by Evora and Ladwig. Also, defending national champions McLaughlin and Brubaker were probably a better bet than E&L to do well in the Olympics, despite a poor nationals outing.

But Ladwig and Evora went and the others stayed home.
 

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
I think the clearest test came in pairs. Dependable world top ten performers Inoue and Baldwin were barely nipped by Evora and Ladwig. Also, defending national champions McLaughlin and Brubaker were probably a better bet than E&L to do well in the Olympics, despite a poor nationals outing.

But Ladwig and Evora went and the others stayed home.

and as it turns out Mark and Amada had great skates in Vancouver, something I am not sure Keauna and Rockne would have been able to do.
 

fairly4

Medalist
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
they women should skate for it.
as far as funding goes-i don't think it has changed much.
the reason why the US national champ "might" get a little easier , is because the expecations are usually higher for them in finishing at worlds, olympics, gp events and they have to STAY That way the NEXT skating season as well.
the 2nd, 3rd place finishers don't usually have as high of expectations
rachel going in to olympics probably( I don't know)--me guessing was expected a top 6 finish,
mirai a top 10 finish.
what happend mirai 4thshe was past national champ, rachel 7th.
going into worlds (Both mirai and rachel could have medaled at worlds) possiblity of both,
rachel might have thought had an easier shot-current national champ and been to worlds -was 5th in 09 , so moving up two spots wouldn't have been unheard of. so might have put more expectation on rachel to medal and most definite to stay in top 6.
mirai probably top 10 at worlds, but due to olympic finish a medal and top 6 placement wouldn't have been unwelcome or out of range.
the us champs are expected to finish up in top 5, 3 in all events they skate in even former national champs. winning us nationals is usually hard, recently i don't know since 2006.
getting tier 1 might seem like it is easier for us national champ, but expecations are usually higher and pressure is usually harder. they can't come in Under the wire so to speak like the 2nd and 3rd and other place finishers.
the national champs made a name for themselves , they are carrying the weight of the us on their shoulders so they have to skate like it this season and following season, they are expected to take win/losses/placements with responsiblity, honesty and integrity and not get upset if they don't get our use ready made excuse.
yes, injuries might play a small part, but if you don't think through yourj program and /or allow injuries to get the best of you, you can't do your best under the circumstance.
if you are hurt real bad you should pull out and not skate and risk further injury.
 

PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
Actually I think Mirai won quite alot. :)

........................

All things considered I would say Mirai delivered a winning performance at Nationals and then at the Olympics too. :yes:

Here is a quick Monday morning riddle...... What does Mirai NOT want to win? :biggrin:
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
That is a tricky question on a Monday morning. :think:

Probably not her first GP event as it is meaningless to peak so early in the season at such a mid-level event.

Maybe not an answer you will agree with :)
 
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