U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

R.D. said:

All the more reason to speculate that she will retire by season's end, barring some remarkable results (e.g. a World podium finish).

So we're to look to our youngsters to fill her shoes afterward.

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No, I hope not. Nobody should be hoping Cristina can fill Rachael's shoes.
We already have skaters who can fill Rachael's shoes.

Perhaps you meant to say we will be looking for skaters to fill Michelle or even Sasha's shoes? Skaters who can win and make World and Olympic podiums. Atleast that is what I hope US Skating is looking for.

I think we need a skater to emerge with more of the appeal that Michelle and Sasha had. I may not be a Johnny fan but I know he atleast has alot of supporters and an active fan base.

Let's also consider Alissa bombing at '09 Worlds and finishing 11th. Rachael skated pretty well at Worlds last year and finished what - 9th? Only two places better than a bombing Alissa. :sheesh:

Please, let's set our sights a tad bit higher.

I haven't seen much of Agnes and hope she is not the typically slow skater that seems to be coming out of the Broadmoor these past few seasons.

I have seen enough of Christina to think by next season she might make an impact on the senior circuit.

R.D. said:

So we're to look to our youngsters to fill her shoes afterward.

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I was wondering about that myself. Rachael has no ISU senior championship medals and has never made the Grand Prix Final. Nobody can fill her shoes until she gets shoes to fill.
Though to be fair, we don't have any lady superstars at the moment. Among the current group, only 3 have made the GP Final and only 1 has an ISU senior championship medal.

ok, some posters seemed to misconstrue my comment. Of course she doesn't have the resume that Kwan and Cohen (and even Meissner) have. But here's the thing: NO ONE ELSE DOES. I was speaking IN TERMS OF THE CURRENT LADIES and of our current ladies, Flatt is one of our best, if not our best. Who else besides Nagasu can still place top 10 in the world on a bad day? Certainly not Czisny. Nor Wagner. Tell me, WHO??

Will Gao be able to do that? Our other girls coming up? THAT'S what I was referring to. And to those who think I have low hopes- well, you're half-right in that I currently do not see an (immediate) end to our drought, unless Nagasu can pull herself together or our up-and-coming girls steal the show. But you're half-wrong in that I ALWAYS want to see American medalists and champions. Of course I wished that Nagasu won a world medal instead of stumbling to 7th. Of course I wished that Flatt could have done much better because she has done better.

The only thing to do, really, is to adopt a wait-and-see attitude before heaping tons of unrealistic hype on an unsuspecting victim, but at the same time, inwardly hope for the best. Don't think for a second that I want Gao to succeed any less than you guys do. But the difference between us is that I'm not quite ready to EXPECT her to do so.

why i am not surprised you people only assume it rachel and mirai, rachel did what kimmie did and went from 5th to 9th,
kimmie 1st-to 4th due to more competitive field, and then 7th.

mirai and rachel 1) hasn't been to gp final, rachel went to 4 continents finished 7th.
mirai-hasn't went
for me the only reason they both got up was cheating at nationals-overlooked a few mistakes, mirai and 2010 nationals was hit by ur's but still went.
during gp seasons they overlook ur's
which girl can make it . depends on attitude. mirai attitude wavers-if she is on top-she likes it becomes arrogant, than when she doesn't stay up in medal rounds comes out with (i am afraid, foot hurt, or something.) rachel to me just doesn't fight.
zhang could but us keeps looking for her mistakes and tells other judges to watch out for her mistakes so she doesn't go. when she goes she usually fights not always but none theless does, majority of time, so even with mistakes she usually medals.
ashley-can but her first time out at worlds and 4 contintents didn't try. when to gp final, last year came in 4th didn't do bad, but was also overlook with mistakes at nationals.
alissa-when to worlds both times finsihed below top 10, 4th continents highest finish was 6th. her attitude is her downfall. which makes me think that is the problem with all the us skaters. they all have the goods it is whether the mental game is ready, from what i seen-that is where the ladies are sorely lacking and that is where ther rest of the world catches up, some of them have better mental game, not alll but some and since some of the are as good if not better skaters than the above mentioned us women, it leaves them out of the loop sometimes, unless the us women try.
mirai podium and rachel podium finish for me only if the judges cheat. which have they done in the past. do i like no, so you wonder why people back away. the apparent cheating for certain skaters.

R.D. said:

. I was speaking IN TERMS OF THE CURRENT LADIES and of our current ladies, Flatt is one of our best, if not our best. Who else besides Nagasu can still place top 10 in the world on a bad day? Certainly not Czisny. Nor Wagner. Tell me, WHO??

Will Gao be able to do that? Our other girls coming up? .

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I think the current girls are pretty much the same. If Mirai is skating very well she has the potential to score the highest at intl events as we saw last season.

Rachael and Ashley seem interchangeable to me. I think Ashley skating her best has the potential to outscore Rachael at her best in front of International judges. In the past so did Caroline.

Ashley skates much faster than Rachael and looks more polished. Rachael has shown she can nail her jumps but still will be forced to use "pep" to cover up her lack of speed and polish.

As to Christina - I think her jumping technique looks better than most of our current girls. Maybe I just love the way she jumps straight up with such good height and air position.

I think her being at the CC with Orser -Wilson -Wilson has it's advantages. When it comes to competing I think Christina will be very well prepared and have programs and choreo that scores points.

If she continues to develope and turns out to be a good competitor I can see her separating herself from the others. "If" does not prove anything but when we talk about the future it seems reasonable to use "if."

Nothing wrong with waiting to see it first - sometimes others like to make predictions.

From all the ladies, only Mirai showed that she can win every competiton in the world.
She had and will have issues with downgrades in the past. But the new rules will help her a lot.
See what she did at Worlds last year in the Short Programm - she won it!
She have the talent, the skating skills, the pirourettes, the flexibility and and and ... all you need.
The only thing what she have to do, is to skate 2! good programms - I believe in that kid! - sorry, young lady ) She can only beat herself.
She will win international medals in the future if she stay healthy and fight - will Frank she have the best coach for her.
No of the other ladies have all the aspects Mirai have - she is the biggest hope.

Rachael don´t have the skating, the personality on the ice ... not the flexibilty. She´s a great skater, but that´s all. No chance to win Worlds anytime.

Ashley is a good skater, but have problems with her jumps. Top 5 in the world, but not more.

Christina - we have to wait. At the moment, she´s a talented skater, but she needs to improve a lot in every aspect of her skating. She have good jumps, but at the moment that´s alle!

So, I hope, that Mirai and Ashley will go to Worlds this year. Together they can get the 3rd spot back!

janetfan said:

Rachael and Ashley seem interchangeable to me. I think Ashley skating her best has the potential to outscore Rachael at her best in front of International judges. In the past so did Caroline.

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I think so too- but here's one little thing: she's yet to do so. At least Flatt has, on more than one occasion as well.

As for Zhang, I still maintain that she needs an overhaul if she wants to go anywhere. Fanboys might disagree but I still think it will take her at least one season of adjustment IF she is actually working on her technique.

R.D. said:

I think so too- but here's one little thing: she's yet to do so. At least Flatt has, on more than one occasion as well.

As for Zhang, I still maintain that she needs an overhaul if she wants to go anywhere. Fanboys might disagree but I still think it will take her at least one season of adjustment IF she is actually working on her technique.

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The problem here is that Rachael has skated clean - and it still was miles fromm Yuna, Mao, Joannie and Miki. Her 5th place at '09Worlds was a good showing but her score wasn't close to the girls ahead of her.

I see Ashley - if or when she ever does the two clean programs impressing the judges and scoring pretty well.
It looks like Ashley will skate through to Sochi and maybe we could think of Joannie. She took a while to reach her potential but when she did we saw that she was capable of making the most important podiums.

Caroline has certain strengths. I agree she needs some time but if she can get her jumps stronger and increase her speed she will be a lovely skater and one the Intl judges should score well. They have scored her well in the past even with some of her flaws.

janetfan said:

The problem here is that Rachael has skated clean - and it still was miles fromm Yuna, Mao, Joannie and Miki. Her 5th place at '09Worlds was a good showing but her score wasn't close to the girls ahead of her.

I see Ashley - if or when she ever does the two clean programs impressing the judges and scoring pretty well.
It looks like Ashley will skate through to Sochi and maybe we could think of Joannie. She took a while to reach her potential but when she did we saw that she was capable of making the most important podiums.

Caroline has certain strengths. I agree she needs some time but if she can get her jumps stronger and increase her speed she will be a lovely skater and one the Intl judges should score well. They have scored her well in the past even with some of her flaws.

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Rachael wasn't clean at 09 or 10 Worlds. She didn't do the 3-3 in either of her programs at both competitions and at 10 Worlds she popped a 3lz and her 3f was downgraded. If she had been totally clean, yes, she still would have been significantly behind Yuna and Mao, but she would have been up there with Miki and Laura. Rachael when she hits everything can be at the top, but she really needs her 3-3s and to be clean to get there because when she doesn't do the 3-3s or even makes small mistakes, she's just grouped with other tier 2 skaters. Mirai had a lot of mistakes at 10 Worlds but still placed ahead of Rachael, at the Olympics when she was clean, her score was close to Mao and Joannie's. I would put Mirai in the category with Ando, Lepisto, and an "on" Kostner at this point, which is really good, but she has to be able to perform at that level consistently for things to stay that way.

silverlake22 said:

Rachael wasn't clean at 09 or 10 Worlds. She didn't do the 3-3 in either of her programs at both competitions and at 10 Worlds she popped a 3lz and her 3f was downgraded. If she had been totally clean, yes, she still would have been significantly behind Yuna and Mao, but she would have been up there with Miki and Laura. Rachael when she hits everything can be at the top, but she really needs her 3-3s and to be clean to get there because when she doesn't do the 3-3s or even makes small mistakes, she's just grouped with other tier 2 skaters. Mirai had a lot of mistakes at 10 Worlds but still placed ahead of Rachael, at the Olympics when she was clean, her score was close to Mao and Joannie's. I would put Mirai in the category with Ando, Lepisto, and an "on" Kostner at this point, which is really good, but she has to be able to perform at that level consistently for things to stay that way.

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OK, I meant '09 Worlds and will take your word for it that Rachael did not do a 3x3 in her LP.
Which makes me wonder where this "reliable Rachael" is coming from. She made mistakes all season long during the GP last season. So did Mirai. But Mirai is not referred to as "reliable" and only "Miraiculous."

janetfan said:

The problem here is that Rachael has skated clean - and it still was miles fromm Yuna, Mao, Joannie and Miki. Her 5th place at '09Worlds was a good showing but her score wasn't close to the girls ahead of her.

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That's true, too...

Thing is, you've GOT to have what I like to call "wiggle room". Room to make a small mistake here and there and not let it totally kill your chances at any kind of medal (or desired placement). Rachel just does not have that. However, what she DOES have is consistency...Wagner may indeed have more "wiggle room" but it does no good if you cannot deliver at least occasionally. And we learned that Nagasu's got wiggle room as well.

It looks like Ashley will skate through to Sochi and maybe we could think of Joannie. She took a while to reach her potential but when she did we saw that she was capable of making the most important podiums.

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So you see Wagner pulling a Rochette?

I guess it's possible but I can't really picture it. One thing though, Wagner's a very determined girl and if any American can put in the effort to make it happen, it's her.

R.D. said:

Thing is, you've GOT to have what I like to call "wiggle room". Room to make a small mistake here and there and not let it totally kill your chances at any kind of medal (or desired placement)...

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Good point. When you have two international competitors, Kim and Asada, who can make mistakes and still put up 200 points, anyone else aspiring to make some noise has to be perfect.

If the U.S. somehow or other found itself faced with making a choice between sending a skater to worlds who can score 185 and usually does, or a skater who might conceivably score 205, but never has -- which would be the smart choice?

Mathman said:

Good point. When you have two international competitors, Kim and Asada, who can make mistakes and still put up 200 points, anyone else aspiring to make some noise has to be perfect.

If the U.S. somehow or other found itself faced with making a choice between sending a skater to worlds who can score 185 and usually does, or a skater who might conceivably score 205, but never has -- which would be the smart choice?

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After no big medals since Kimmie back in '06 I think you can guess my answer.

Mathman said:

If the U.S. somehow or other found itself faced with making a choice between sending a skater to worlds who can score 185 and usually does, or a skater who might conceivably score 205, but never has -- which would be the smart choice?

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There is no choice. They send the top 2 girls at Nationals. Maybe they can massage the scores in a tight contest, and I suspect they do, but they can't decide with certainty who goes to Worlds ahead of time.

PolymerBob said:

There is no choice. They send the top 2 girls at Nationals. Maybe they can massage the scores in a tight contest, and I suspect they do, but they can't decide with certainty who goes to Worlds ahead of time.

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It was a hypothetical question - use your imagination

If it were up to you who would you have sent to Worlds last year?

After seeing how our girls were scored in Vancouver - my choices would have been Mirai and Ashley.

I still would have sent Rachael and Mirai to the Olympics though. Rachael earned it and she also earned her trip to Worlds.

In 2009 Worlds, Rachael was still a junior. She didn't have the 3-3 in the SP. She flubbed the 3-3 in the LP. If she was clean, her score would have been closer.
Rachael is consistent because she's consistent. She's medaled at the US nationals 3 times in the last 3 years. Who's done so since Kwan and Cohen?
In 2010 Worlds, she burned out and made all kind of mistakes and getting downgraded.

Just wait and see.

FlattFan said:

In 2009 Worlds, Rachael was still a junior. She didn't have the 3-3 in the SP. She flubbed the 3-3 in the LP. If she was clean, her score would have been closer.
Rachael is consistent because she's consistent. She's medaled at the US nationals 3 times in the last 3 years. Who's done so since Kwan and Cohen?
In 2010 Worlds, she burned out and made all kind of mistakes and getting downgraded.

Just wait and see.

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I agree that Rachael may have been tired by the time Worlds came along. They all looked a bit tired after the Olympics.
So we can't just let Rachael off with that excuse. Mirai was tired too as were Yuna, Miki, Laura, etc.

Mao may have also been tired but she appeared to be more determined and focused than the others.

silverlake22 said:

At this point she'll be lucky to even make the world team, especially considering she's had 2 shots and failed to make the top 10 both times.

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Maybe Alissa is holding out hope for that one magical season where everything just comes together for her at both Nationals and Worlds. Kind of like what happened with Nicole Bobek in '95 or Rudy Galindo in '96. Neither of them had exactly stellar results as singles skaters at the senior level before and in Bobek's case after their world medals.

DiSkates said:

Maybe Alissa is holding out hope for that one magical season where everything just comes together for her at both Nationals and Worlds. Kind of like what happened with Nicole Bobek in '95 or Rudy Galindo in '96. Neither of them had exactly stellar results as singles skaters at the senior level before and in Bobek's case after their world medals.

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Well, she sorta had a dream season back in 2005 before nationals and junior worlds.

Also, Gong and Cesario finished 2nd and 4th at the JGP that just took place in Romania. The scores weren't that high, and URs still seem to be an obstacle for both to overcome (esp Cesario), but both girls had pretty good showings and look poised to make the top 10 at nationals this season.

FlattFan said:

She's medaled at the US nationals 3 times in the last 3 years. Who's done so since Kwan and Cohen?

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Ashley has also medaled in the last three U.S. Championships.