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- Jul 30, 2009
U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
I think that's a somewhat different question. I took your earlier post to mean that you were thinking like this. The ISU judges at the 2010 Olympics and 2010 World championships scored Mirai higher than Rachael. Therefore the U.S. judges will probably follow suit and give Mirai higher scores than Rachael at 2011 U.S. Nationals, or at least not give Rachael any special favors in the judging.
I do agree with with what you wrote here. I think it is quite likely that the judges assumed that Rachael had won U.S. Nationals after her fine skate, and therefore piled on the points to give her a strong send-off to worlds. All countries do this.
I do not, however, think that the U.S. judges then said, whoops, now we better hold Mirai back to keep her behind Rachael. I think they scored Mirai on a comparable standard, and...
only the two downgraded jumps prevented Mirai from catching Rachael's score.. Considering just Rachael alone, and not comparing her to anyone else, I will meet you halfway on why her Olympic score was twenty points lower than her score at Nationals. 10 points for tthe two downgrades at the Olympics and 10 points nationalistic grade inflation.
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- Jun 21, 2003
I am pretty sure I read about this so-called gentleman's agreement in some old-time skater's biography -- I'm thinking Scott Hamilton's? This was back when figure skating was more of an "old boys club" than it is now. I have the image of ISU officials and Federation heads sitting around smoking cigars and sipping cognac, deciding the placements for the next Olympics.
The situation for French men was interesting last year. Amodio won French Nationals, with Joubert out injured. At the Olympics Amodio got 12th and Joubert 16th. At Worlds, Joubert won bronze with Amodio ending up in 15th place. So I guess that proves absolutely zip.
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- Feb 17, 2007
But why do all countries do this? What do they think they gain by inflating scores? Does anyone actually think the ISU judges score skaters better because they earned 300 points at their Nationals? I guess I would understand if this inflation actually provided some benefit. But I don't see any.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
Maybe. I mean, her PCS probably won't be that high but it's not like Ashley's are that high internationally either. Plus Christina's jumps are always rotated, never 2 footed, and she's attempting a 3-3 in her SP and 7 triples in her FS. She's also been pretty consistent. I mean, if Mirai is say 3rd, then Christina could finish as low as 10th and they'd still get 3 spots back, more realistically say Mirai is 4th or 5th and Christina say 8th. That seems doable. Ksenia was 8th at this year's worlds and Christina beat her at the JGPF.
- Joined
- Aug 18, 2009
Let's wait until we get to the Grand Prix before making any real predictions.
Given Mirai's performance last season, though, I'd say she can realistically get anywhere from silver (if she skates clean, assuming a clean Mao) to 7th (even if she bombs à-la-WC2010). So, I say we should try to send someone who can reliably get around 6th. I'd say Rachael at this point, but I can also see Ashley and MAYBE Christina pending how her PCS fare on the international scene.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
I think that's a somewhat different question. I took your earlier post to mean that you were thinking like this. The ISU judges at the 2010 Olympics and 2010 World championships scored Mirai higher than Rachael. Therefore the U.S. judges will probably follow suit and give Mirai higher scores than Rachael at 2011 U.S. Nationals, or at least not give Rachael any special favors in the judging.
I do agree with with what you wrote here. I think it is quite likely that the judges assumed that Rachael had won U.S. Nationals after her fine skate, and therefore piled on the points to give her a strong send-off to worlds. All countries do this.
I do not, however, think that the U.S. judges then said, whoops, now we better hold Mirai back to keep her behind Rachael. I think they scored Mirai on a comparable standard, and...
Considering just Rachael alone, and not comparing her to anyone else, I will meet you halfway on why her Olympic score was twenty points lower than her score at Nationals. 10 points for tthe two downgrades at the Olympics and 10 points nationalistic grade inflation.
A good explanation and as Ted Kennedy used to say, "getting half is better than getting nothing."
I think it was blades who pointed out that in Vancouver Mirai beat Rachael in the pcs by 7 points. At Natls Mirai won by 1 point. So yes, I agree there was some uncalled for and unrealistic "piling on" for Rachael at Natls.
I think if Rachael had won by a closer score much of the bad feelings could have been averted. The victory might have still been questioned but I believe the margin is what added fuel to the fire. It did not seem realistic or fair and brought the judging and tech panel under scrutiny.
Seeing how the international judges scored Mirai and Rachael in Vancouver did not make things better and judging like we saw at Natls will continue to drive fans away from skating.
Is skating a real sport - get outta here
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- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
I'm in agreement with you. We could also throw Agnes into the mix too, although we'll have to see how she fares on the GP this season, if she's still doing 3t-3t as her combo in the SP, if she gets docked for her lip, if her lack of speed hurt her PCS, etc. Where Christina will be doing JGP her PCS are going to be lower just because it's a junior competition, but seeing where they fall in comparison to the other skaters will be key, if she's consistently at the top PCS wise among the field then she should probably get fine PCS in senior events (Ashley, Rachael, Alissa level probably). Her TES will be more telling, if she can break 60 in her LP that would be a big deal, because apart from Flatt most of the other ladies have trouble breaking 60 for TES in the LP.
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- Oct 19, 2009
I'm curious how Rachael Flatt, Ashley Wagner, and Christina Gao will do, but I'm not honestly expecting too-too much. Only the thought of Mirai excites me about watching the American ladies.
I felt the same way you did. I didn't get it. I still don't. But I was somewhat mollified when I saw that the scores at the Olympics were inflated as well. Are Olympic scores always that inflated? I don't remember them being like that before, under either system. In any case, maybe it was a good thing that the national competitions inflated scores if that is the way it was going to be at the Olympics.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
It worked out OK for Evan
but Mirai's score was the same at both events :think: Rachael was deflated rather than inflated in Vancouver which did not work out so well for her.
But I don't think many skating fans were that surprised by her 20 point drop even with Olympic scores inflated the way they were. Her Olympic score was still one of the highest intl scores she ever received.
If I remember right Caroline Zhang is a skater who seems at times to get deflated at Natls and has scored higher at Inlt events.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
Well, there have only been 2 Olympics under COP. In 2006, none of the ladies broke 190, but the medals were just as shiny.
In fact, I don't ever remember thinking that an ISU event was inflated before these Olympics.
Me neither. I was all, WTH is going ON? I don't remember 6.0 Olympics being THAT inflated either. I mean, I don't remember judges giving a whole bunch of skaters that would have gotten 5.6s 5.9s for instances...
That's what I mean, though. Everybody's score was the highest they've ever received. Well, highest internationally.
It got on my nerves. The rankings were fair (enough), which is the most important thing I suppose. But the scores were silly. Is Yuna supposed to be crushed if she only scores a 140for her next LP? :sheesh:
Anyway, back to the topic. It does seem Rachael was not as well-received internationally as the U.S. had hoped.
Still, at the end of the day, I think the U.S. judges will want to send Rachael and Mirai to worlds. Which is not to say that they won't have to skate extremely well at nats to make sure they are on the team.
But I think if there are any two skaters the judges will subconciously want to reward it will be those two - based on their Olympic performances. I think they will both be forgiven for their mistakes at worlds, even if it did mean we didn't get our three spots back. I think everyone understands it was their third major competition in a row and that you can't be perfect all of the time. But the way Rachael and Mirai performed at their first Olympics will not be forgotten and NONE of the other girls have anything even close to that under their belts.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
I think they do it just for the sake of the self-congratulatory high. "Didn't we just put on a slam-bang show! Aren't you glad you tuned in to see it!"
Kind of like dumping Gatoraid on the coach at the end of a foorball game.
Michelle always got gobs of 6.0's at Nationals -- when she skated last and the judges knew she had won. When she skated first, not so much, because the contest wasn't over yet.
Anyway, I agree, these narcissistic celebrations don't seem to impress the ISU judges much.
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- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
You are probably right, but that coin has another side. If another lady manages to bump Mirai or Rachael off the World team next year, she will really have earned it. She will be on the World team having received no favors from any quarter.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
Hopefully it will be the same for Mirai, Rachael and all of them.
No favors and no padding the scores either.
Rachael and Mirai deserve no favors. What has either of them ever won on the international stage to earn any favors?
Atleast Caroline has won a bronze at 4CC and finished third (and ahead of Rachael) at WTT.
Does that mean she deserves any favors?
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- Mar 27, 2010
Yeah, really felt sorry for Zvonareva--same thing happened in the Wimbledon final, she just... tightened up. I understand, having played tennis since age 4. Not a good feeling
hwell:
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
Yeah, really felt sorry for Zvonareva--same thing happened in the Wimbledon final, she just... tightened up. I understand, having played tennis since age 4. Not a good feeling
The way Kim was playing tonight Z didn't have much chance. She was bombed off the court and left in tears. I will give her credit though because she never quit and the New York crowd got behind her (even though they love Kim) when she finaly won a game in the second set.
I like so much about Kim and she was very gracious at the trophy ceremony, offering words of encouragemnet and telling Zvonareva she is a great player and that her time will come and she will win soon.
ETA - Sorry for OT - speaking of Kim - any word about Kim Meisner? Is she still training?
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