U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

silverlake22 · Sep 12, 2010

Blades of Passion said:
Alissa doesn't have terrible technique at all. She simply isn't a great or consistent jumper.

Of the jumps she did land, the majority were better quality than those of Flatt and especially Zhang.

Agreed. This is why I think Anna O may be ok. Like Czisny, her technique is not terrible, it's just not great and she isn't that consistent. But Czisny gets really nervous and that seems to be her downfall, whereas Anna is really reckless and always goes for her triples even when they don't work out. Further, Anna looks like she's past her growthspurt and everything else about her skating is really strong, so if she focuses on improving her jump technique, then she might really have a shot at making it internationally. Already she has improved her jumps a lot, especially when it comes to under-rotations, and if she keeps working on it, her consistency will likely improve. I have no doubt Czisny could have really made it internationally if she had just switched coaches earlier and found a strict coach who would teach her to toughen up and not let the nerves get to her. My guess is that Anna's coach is very strict and after what happened at Junior Worlds last season, my guess is Anna is very determined to do be a tougher competitor this season. If she could have just held it together in the LP, she could have been the World Junior champion instead of Kanako, she probably knows that and that this season she'll be hard pressed to even make the team.

R.D. · Sep 12, 2010

Every skater gets nervous.

Question is- how do you deal with it?

Most skaters (that I've seen) seem to have good days and bad days, or have various consistency issues. It is indeed rare to find someone who can consistently hit under pressure, and even more so to find a skater like that that also has talent.

Flatt has this rarity in which she can give it her all multiple times. Usually for most top skaters that happens only once (or in some well-known cases, not at all). Problem for her is, though- she's just not at the top level yet, so it's not going to win her anything (besides national medals). Even then, it must be stressed that she's human, and isn't going to hit 100% (and doesn't). But when you begin to cross 70%, 75%, that's pretty damn good IMHO.

OTOH, someone like Alyssa, who is on-and-off...and unfortunately for her fans, off more often than she's on- must get lucky enough to have the right performance at the right time. That's really what it's all about- having the right performance at the right time. Knowing you did your best. I sorta wish she was able to knock out that 2009 Nats FS so she could truly have that feeling.

PolymerBob · Sep 12, 2010

bekalc said:
Now if you get a skater who is a really really good competitor a la Zhang, they might be able to get away more with the bad technique. I really think a lot of Zhang's issues with the judges also was her poor skating skills. If her skating skills had been better the judges might be willing to forgive the bad jumps a little more. (Not with GOE, but at the very least give her decent PCS look at Nakano with her awful wrap.)

Once again, I will have to plant myself firmly in the minority on that one. I think Caroline's issues with the judges last season were tendonitis, a meniscus tear, a back sprain and whatever training time was lost. When Caroline was healthy in the 07 - 08 and 08 - 09 seasons, her horrendous technique earned her 3 Grand Prix medals, a trip to the Final, 2 National medals, 2 Junior World silvers, a WTT gold, $30,000 prize and a respectable 4th at 4CC. The judges forgave all of Caroline's sins ......... as long as she skated well. Last season, people saw the result of injuries and lost training, and said, "lousy technique!"

So where does that leave her this season? If I'm right, Caroline can get back near the top of the US ladies by doing nothing more than recovering from her injuries. Beyond that, it's hard to tell because we don't know what effect her new coach is having. We will find out next month.

R.D. · Sep 12, 2010

PolymerBob said:
So where does that leave her this season? If I'm right, Caroline can get back near the top of the US ladies by doing nothing more than recovering from her injuries. Beyond that, it's hard to tell because we don't know what effect her new coach is having. We will find out next month.

As you know, I'm with those who think she needs an overhaul- but at the same time, I think you're onto something here. Yes, in the 2008 season she seemed to do fine (not great, but good for herself) in the field. Her downfall was always Nationals, though. IF she were to simply get back to the level she was at in 2008, I think she would find that she would find herself to be competitive at the national level this season, but unless she can get over the hump of flatlining at Nationals, she's never going to Worlds. She may pick up some 4CC and/or GP hardware, but that's gonna be about it. JMO.

PolymerBob · Sep 12, 2010

R.D. said:
As you know, I'm with those who think she needs an overhaul- but at the same time, I think you're onto something here. Yes, in the 2008 season she seemed to do fine (not great, but good for herself) in the field.

Yes, she needs an overhaul, and it appears that is what is happening right now. What we don't know is how the overhaul is coming along. The opinion of many posters, far more knowledgeable than I, is that such an overhaul will take years. Yet, there was a report of Caroline doing triple flips without a mule-kick 2 1/2 months after 4CC. The interview with Caroline and Tammy from Champs' Camp was all positive. Can so any experts on so many message boards be so wrong?

( Will I be totally insufferable if they are? :biggrin:

)

Mathman · Sep 12, 2010

PolymerBob said:
Can so any experts on so many message boards be so wrong? ( Will I be totally insufferable if they are? )

You will deserve every gloat and I-told-you-so (and I hope it happens :agree: )

janetfan · Sep 12, 2010

PolymerBob said:
Yes, she needs an overhaul, and it appears that is what is happening right now. What we don't know is how the overhaul is coming along. The opinion of many posters, far more knowledgeable than I, is that such an overhaul will take years. Yet, there was a report of Caroline doing triple flips without a mule-kick 2 1/2 months after 4CC. The interview with Caroline and Tammy from Champs' Camp was all positive. Can so any experts on so many message boards be so wrong? ( Will I be totally insufferable if they are? )

The latest progress report from LA about Caroline's skating says she is "faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive, and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound.
It's Super Caroline!...or did they confuse her with Yuna Kim

bekalc · Sep 12, 2010

Once again, I will have to plant myself firmly in the minority on that one. I think Caroline's issues with the judges last season were tendonitis, a meniscus tear, a back sprain and whatever training time was lost. When Caroline was healthy in the 07 - 08 and 08 - 09 seasons, her horrendous technique earned her 3 Grand Prix medals, a trip to the Final, 2 National medals, 2 Junior World silvers, a WTT gold, $30,000 prize and a respectable 4th at 4CC. The judges forgave all of Caroline's sins ......... as long as she skated well. Last season, people saw the result of injuries and lost training, and said, "lousy technique!"

I wouldn't say the judges forgave all of Zhang's sins. I think that Zhang scored well because she could land jumps and she had some nice qualities (nice arms, posture, gorgeous spins). But Zhang was never going to get top scores, with those skating skills. And yes the jumping technique needed to be better because her jumps were clearly having issues.

And I think she would absolutely be pased by people like Ksensia Marakova who can also land jumps, but more pleasing ones, and also has better skating skills. If these things from Zhang do not improve.

Blades of Passion · Sep 12, 2010

R.D. said:
OTOH, someone like Alyssa, who is on-and-off...and unfortunately for her fans, off more often than she's on- must get lucky enough to have the right performance at the right time. That's really what it's all about- having the right performance at the right time. Knowing you did your best. I sorta wish she was able to knock out that 2009 Nats FS so she could truly have that feeling.

Alissa won the FS at 2007 Nationals and I daresay she deserved to place 1st overall there.

janetfan · Sep 12, 2010

Blades of Passion said:
Alissa won the FS at 2007 Nationals and I daresay she deserved to place 1st overall there.

Thanks for the reminder blades! I haven't watched Alissa's '07 LP for quite a while.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KsUNC4cMb8

Classic gushing by Button and why not? Alissa is an elegant skater with many lovely qualities.

R.D. · Sep 12, 2010

janetfan said:
The latest progress report from LA about Caroline's skating says she is "faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive, and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound.
It's Super Caroline!...or did they confuse her with Yuna Kim

R.D. · Sep 12, 2010

PolymerBob said:
Yes, she needs an overhaul, and it appears that is what is happening right now. What we don't know is how the overhaul is coming along. The opinion of many posters, far more knowledgeable than I, is that such an overhaul will take years. Yet, there was a report of Caroline doing triple flips without a mule-kick 2 1/2 months after 4CC.

Do you actually believe that report, though? Or do you just want to believe it?

We will know when she competes her first GP (or club comp if she's doing one).

It's one thing to do it in practice. It's a whole 'nother ballgame to do it in competition, under pressure. It's just not going to happen overnight. I caution against expecting things too soon...

feraina · Sep 13, 2010

R.D. said:
Do you actually believe that report, though? Or do you just want to believe it?

Exactly. I agree. I want Caroline to overhaul all her weaknesses more than anything. But I don't think it's realistic to expect her to be able to pull it off in competitions this season. Even Mao, who's a much stronger jumper than Caroline, popped and fell on a lot of 3Z's the season when she was working seriously on correcting the flutz. We saw that she could do a correct lutz in practice and warmup, and even occasionally in competition -- and that in itself was already amazingly impressive. But under competitive stress, more often than not she messed up. And then the following season, she pulled the 3Z from her programs altogether. :no: I really hope that Mao will put the 3Z back into her program and really put some mileage on it, since it's still 4 years away from Sochi.

I hope Caroline will do the same, persist with her new jump technique/training, and not look back and revert to what's comfortable even if the competitive results are disappointing this season. She should be realistic, as well as all her fans, in their expectation of what can accomplished jump-wise in one season, or even two. If she's in it for Sochi then she has to take the long view and be willing to go through the immediate pain. I hope she's going to be mature/brave/confident enough for that journey.

Blades of Passion · Sep 13, 2010

janetfan said:
Thanks for the reminder blades! I haven't watched Alissa's '07 LP for quite a while.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KsUNC4cMb8

Classic gushing by Button and why not? Alissa is an elegant skater with many lovely qualities.

Yeah that has to be her best Long Program performance ever. 5 Triples, gorgeous spins, and lovely choreography that perfectly suits the gentle expression which comes so naturally to her.

Layfan · Sep 13, 2010

Blades of Passion said:
Yeah that has to be her best Long Program performance ever. 5 Triples, gorgeous spins, and lovely choreography that perfectly suits the gentle expression which comes so naturally to her.

It's one of my favorite National Championship performances of the last decade, for sure. It was exquisite.

jeff goldblum · Sep 13, 2010

Goodness. Mirai has the best jump technique of any skater in the ladies field. Doesn't mean she always executes perfectly but as far as how she proceeds through the steps of any given jump is exactly how they'd be if someone had to write a book on how they should be done. Look at how much, just in the course of one season (this past one), her jumps improved. From CoC to Olympics and Worlds there was just a huge difference. The jumps in her short program at Worlds were fantastic. The under-rotated triple toe was clearly a case of shouldn't have attempted but did anyway, and she came darn close. The double axel is untouchable.

Besides, there have been so many talented skaters that we've seen come through at Liza's age who never make it past age 17 or 18 in competitive skating. We'll see.

bekalc said:
I never said Alissa won't have a PCS advantage over Zhang or Flatt, I said she wouldn't have THAT much of a PCS advantage over. There's a pretty big difference between having lets say a 3 point advantage and having an 8 point advantage, don't you think?

Now this I will agree with. However, I would point out that Yagudin was consistent when he was with Mishin. (Except for the Olympics when he was sick) Its hard to know what was going on with the other men, but it may be that they were never consistent. Junior World Bronze medalist Artur is pretty young and it seems like he may be getting some consistency. Besides I think Mishin has been extremely invested in Plushenko for a lot of years. Having Urmanov, Yagudin, Plushenko together in one group blew up in his face big time. And it may be that he just hasn't found a talented skater like one of those lately. Mishin normally also isn't that into taking on other people's top skaters/champions. And it can be harder when your raising the champion yourself. Lambiel for example wanted to train with Mishin full time (I believe) but Mishin said no because Plushenko might be coming back.

Lisa and Artur are really the first students Mishin's crowed about since Plushenko. And Lisa more than Artur.

I agree about Liza's consistency, hopefully they will figure out away with her, whether it be more run throughs etc.

But I'll say this even without the 3axel, I wouldn't assume Liza won't be competitive against Mirai. Liza HAS done 3/3s already in competition. And she can do a 3salchow, something Mirai can't do. (Not to mention she doesn't get edge calls)

There hasn't been an European Olympic ladies champion since Oksana. And there are right now a lot of talented Russian jumping beans out there (not just Liza) The Olympics will also be in Russia. Given the talent in Russia, whoever makes it through is going to be strong competitors, the head cases will be weeded out. And there will be a LOT of political support for them....

And the thing is that I have a feeling Mirai's jumps may be pretty ingrained. It may be easier for Liza to keep the jumps she already has, and get that triple axel (that she at least has in practice) consistent. Than it will be for Frank to completely redo Mirai's jumping technique.

Jaana · Sep 13, 2010

bekalc said:
Mishin also supposedly looked at her parents before he took her on. She's not expected to get that much taller or bigger.

But these days still lots of people get taller than their parents... Anyway, Liza will have a growth spurt and puberty and only after them one can see how she will fare in jumping with her grown-up body. Some people have the growth spurt earlier and some a bit later. Hopefully Liza will not be battling with those issues at the time of Soshi Olympics...

bekalc said:
And you can have issues with a lot of things Mishin may do, but the man is probably the best jumping coach in the world. I wouldn't bet against Mishin's ability to teach jumps...

Yes, I agree that Mishin has been able to create consistent male jumpers (e.g. Yagudin and Plushenko, Urmanov not so much) so far. But in my opininion his jumpers don´t have the beautiful jumps that Kulik (coached by Viktor Kudriatshev) was able to show.

PolymerBob · Sep 13, 2010

janetfan said:
Thanks for the reminder blades! I haven't watched Alissa's '07 LP for quite a while.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KsUNC4cMb8

Classic gushing by Button and why not? Alissa is an elegant skater with many lovely qualities.

Here is Alissa'a short program from that event.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ_coQijkCk

Can you find the announcer's mistake?

bekalc · Sep 13, 2010

Goodness. Mirai has the best jump technique of any skater in the ladies field. Doesn't mean she always executes perfectly but as far as how she proceeds through the steps of any given jump is exactly how they'd be if someone had to write a book on how they should be done. Look at how much, just in the course of one season (this past one), her jumps improved. From CoC to Olympics and Worlds there was just a huge difference. The jumps in her short program at Worlds were fantastic. The under-rotated triple toe was clearly a case of shouldn't have attempted but did anyway, and she came darn close. The double axel is untouchable.

Except she underrotates A LOT including that double axel. If she had rotated that double axel in the long, she'd have won bronze at worlds. I'll take someone like Yu-na instead who has a good way of entering her jumps but also is far more likely to fully rotate hers. Mirai may clean up her jumps, but I want to see her rotating them consistently first. I know even at her great skate at the Olympics people like Elvis were saying she still needs to "clean up those jumps" If someone is telling you that your jumps need to be cleaned up, well that would suggest to me that your jumps aren't perfect. Not saying you can say she has the best jumping technique of all the ladies when she has that kind of reptutation. If she starts consistently getting credit for her jumps than fine. But until then I would think that people like Kim, Rochette etc would have overall better technique-just by virtue of the fact that their jumps get called triples more.

(I do agree that her big problem is underrotation and the rest is fine).

And as for Liza could get injured puberty. Of course I don't think I said that this girl will "for sure be Olympic Champion" Puberty is an issue. Although she's grown this year and still reportedly has her jumps. And as for injury, they all could get injured.

But in my opininion his jumpers don´t have the beautiful jumps that Kulik (coached by Viktor Kudriatshev) was able to show.

Kulik had gorgeous jumps for sure probably the most beautiful ever. But I'd hardly call Plushenko's jumps ugly. And Yagudin had a lovely 3axel, as did Urmanov.

janetfan · Sep 13, 2010

bekalc said:
Except she underrotates A LOT including that double axel. If she had rotated that double axel in the long, she'd have won bronze at worlds. I'll take someone like Yu-na instead who has a good way of entering her jumps but also is far more likely to fully rotate hers. Mirai may clean up her jumps, but I want to see her rotating them consistently first. I know even at her great skate at the Olympics people like Elvis were saying she still needs to "clean up those jumps" If someone is telling you that your jumps need to be cleaned up, well that would suggest to me that your jumps aren't perfect.

It is fine if you listen to Elvis but Mirai is better off listening to Frank.

And the judges at the Olympics did NOT seem to agree with Elvis about Mirai - or just about anything else.

U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

silverlake22

R.D.

PolymerBob

R.D.

PolymerBob

Mathman

janetfan

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bekalc

Blades of Passion

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janetfan

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R.D.

R.D.

feraina

Blades of Passion

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Layfan

jeff goldblum

Jaana

PolymerBob

bekalc

janetfan

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