U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

PolymerBob · Sep 14, 2010

FlattFan said:
If she fell 3 times, and scored more than Caroline Zhang on a good day, then I would guess Caroline Zhang never make it out of the gate again if this girl goes head to head with her. .

Well, here are the senior ladies' results of the 2010 Golden West.
http://www.allyearfsc.com/events/GOLDEN_WEST/2010gwresults/SeniorLadiesFS.HTM

And here are the senior ladies' results of the 2008 Golden West.
http://www.allyearfsc.com/events/GOLDEN_WEST/2008results/Senior/CAT001RS.HTM

Miss Lam can score what Miss Zhang scores on a BAD day.

R.D. · Sep 14, 2010

FlattFan said:
We will have Agnes, Vanessa, Christina vying for the bronze and pewter medals. Good luck to Ashley and Caroline.

Who is this Vanessa? Man, every year it's someone new.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

I am starting to have doubts about Tom Z and the Colorado Springs skaters. Rachel, Alexe and apparently Agnes might all be too slow to score well at senior Intl events. Can't they bring in a coach to help these girls learn to skate with the speed expected and required of top senior skaters?

If Yuka wasn't so busy it would be nice if she could work with these girls on skating skills.

FlattFan · Sep 14, 2010

R.D. said:
Who is this Vanessa? Man, every year it's someone new.

Some random girl who just won the Golden West with a 58+ TES in the LP with 2 falls. Kids now a day, they don't want to do premed anymore, they just want to skate.

Layfan · Sep 14, 2010

feraina said:
Here's Rachael's Olympic LP:
http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/vVgw8F_FdLU/

I can't find the protocol right now, but her first 3F (in combo) and both 3Z's (especially the first) look under-rotated. If you pause at the moment she touches down, you can see it more clearly.

You guys are the bomb!! Thanks.

Well, I can't see any URs, even after pausing it about 10 times. Not that it means anything, it is soooo hard for me tell.
Well, watching it again I thought Rachael looked better than at nationals, I have to say. The commentators thought so too. Poor Rachael. It's hard watching this because she was so thrilled at the end of her skate and then it's clear she's a bit bummed about her marks, a disappointment I'm sure grew as the excitement of her skate wore off and she saw how many skaters were overtaking her in placement.
I can't help but think the tech panel was stricter with Rachael. I'm not saying her jumps were fully rotated and I would have to watch slow-mo replay for hours of the other skaters to really know if they were really lenient on others, of course. But I just can't help but shake the suspicion. Obviously, other posters feel the same way. Maybe it was because she was first out of the six ... I thought Rachael looked smoother here than at nationals. Anyhow, like RD said she would have been on the podium anyway. Her GOEs and several elements were too low, if I remember correctly, against Mao, Yuna, Joannie and Mirai.

R.D. · Sep 14, 2010

Still, the psychological factor cannot be ignored- going out there, putting in your all, skating your best, and then not getting the marks you hoped. It has to be a blow to confidence at some point, no matter how small.

FlattFan · Sep 14, 2010

In case Joannie bombs, and she'd been bombing all season long, they have to keep the other down. They can't not give Joannie a medal. That's how I see it.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

Mathman said:
I think she was just unlucky.

In every sports contest there are going to be some close calls. Sometimes they go your way, sometimes not. This time, a couple of calls didn't go Rachael's way. That's sports.

Mao Asada, for instance, almost always rotates her triple Axels exactly the same amount -- about 2.75 revolutions. That's just her technique on this element.Sometimes the caller says that's enough, sometimes he/she says, no, it's not.

About overall score inflation at Vancouver, however...

Do you think that Yu-na's Kim's Olympic performance was twenty-two points better than her 2009 World Championship performance?

Was Joannie Rochette's effort worth eleven points more than her silver medal performace at 2009 Worlds?

Was Laura Lepisto really twenty points better in Vancouver than when she won 2009 Europeans?

Yes, yes and yes to your three questions about inflation. Yuna was clearly better and so were laura and Joannie.

I can accept the luck factor and it often plays a big parts in sports - good for some and bad for others and always bad for the Detroit Lions :biggrin:

To Layfan:
Actually Rachael did not have to wait for the others. A skater from the previous group outscored her and Rachael was 2nd after she skated her LP. Of course she had to know that atleast two of the others in the last group would beat her so her disappointment was to be expected.

Now, we need a case for Yuna, Mao, Miki, Joannie, and Mirai all being gifted in their free skates for your post to sound right.

Is that what happened? I don't remember without watching all of the LP's again - but I never thought the placements were off in Vancouver. I don't see how Rachael was victimized unless a strong case could be made for her to have finished 6th or 5th.

Like RD said, it is not like she wuzrobbed of a medal. The thing to remember is that even if all of Rachel's jumps were good - she still is not as stylish a skater as Laura, Miki or Akiko.

In CoP it is about the quality of the overall skating. Spins count and Rachael's were not nearly as good as the top girls. SS counts and she is lagging behind there too.

Laura, Miki and Akiko all scored higher than Rachael in the LP. Is that a big upset? I think all three of them are much more mature looking skaters than Rachael - and unless they flub up I would expect them to outscore her.

Sorry, but I still don't get this Rachael as the victim business.

bekalc · Sep 14, 2010

Do you think that Yu-na's Kim's Olympic performance was twenty-two points better than her 2009 World Championship performance?

Well Yu-na was better in Vancover technically. She did a 3salchow this time, got credit for her spin, she also did a 3lutz/3toe with the correct edge unlike with her 3flip/3toe. All of that together would get her about 8/9 points correct. And then add in the harder transitions etc which did deserve higher GOE. Her PCS were enormous, but everyone got way higher PCS this time.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

bekalc said:
Well Yu-na was better in Vancover technically. She did a 3salchow this time, got credit for her spin, she also did a 3lutz/3toe with the correct edge unlike with her 3flip/3toe. All of that together would get her about 8/9 points correct. And then add in the harder transitions etc which did deserve higher GOE. Her PCS were enormous, but everyone got way higher PCS this time.

See, the thing is that Yuna was definitely better in Vancouver than LA. Her skating blew the judges away.
It was a night of great skating in Vancouver. Mirai's LP sparkled. Laura hit 5 triples and moves as well as any skater over the ice in years. Miki had her best LP of the season. Mao and Joannie were inspiring.

And then there was Rachael who skated very well. I just don't think Rachael can compete with the other top skaters when they are really on their game.

Isn;t that what happened and doesn't it explain Rachael's 7th place finish? And hey, it is no crime being seventh. Rachel skated very well. The others were simply better.

Blades of Passion · Sep 14, 2010

The scores were absolutely ridiculous, to be sure.

I would have scored Yu-Na at 135 (still probably too generous), which would still be a new World record. 150 was inane.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

Blades of Passion said:
The scores were absolutely ridiculous, to be sure.

I would have scored Yu-Na at 135 (still probably too generous), which would still be a new World record. 150 was inane.

And had the judges been using 6.0 that night how do you think Yuna would have been scored?

bekalc · Sep 14, 2010

The scores were absolutely ridiculous, to be sure.

I would have scored Yu-Na at 135 (still probably too generous), which would still be a new World record. 150 was inane.

Well obviously 150 was ridiculously high but well Joannie and Mao were at 131/132 right, I think Kim was a little more than 4/5 points better, I think 140 would have been more realistic.

What had me furious was when Asada didn't win the long at Worlds, and at the very least get higher PCS. That right there shows me that the system needs work. Yes Kim had more transitions but she was lackluster to say the least at Worlds. Sure Asada's long wasn't my favorite Asada program ever (although there were a times when I rather enjoyed it because it was so campy) but that was a great performance from Mao.

miki88 · Sep 14, 2010

I can't believe we're still debating the scores from Olympics. :laugh:

I do agree the scoring was kinda crazy at the Olys. It's not possible to compare scores across events since it varies so much.
About Mao's 3As. One thing I noticed is that the caller almost always ratified her 3As if done as a single jump, unless she pops or falls on the jump. The 3As that are usually downgraded are the ones she does in a combo. I find this a bit strange. Perhaps the caller doesn't like this particular combo she does and they much prefer to see a 3/3:think:

FlattFan · Sep 14, 2010

janetfan said:
And had the judges been using 6.0 that night how do you think Yuna would have been scored?

5.8s and 5.9s on the technical.
5.9s on the artistic.

Under the old system, she skated too early to get 6.0s. Even Midori Ito putting in a triple-triple and a triple axel didn't get 6.0s across the board. They have to save some room for later.

Mao hasn't skated. Under the 6.0, 2 triple axels would have gotten her 6.0s on the technical mark.

mskater93 · Sep 14, 2010

I don't think Mao would have gotten 6.0 tech scores under the old system. It was very important that a skater have a variety of types of triples (missing 3Lz and 3S) and to not make technical mistakes, which she did on the 3T. She probably would have gotten lower marks on both from Yuna based on the "missing" jumps and the technical mistake.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

FlattFan said:
5.8s and 5.9s on the technical.
5.9s on the artistic.

Under the old system, she skated too early to get 6.0s. Even Midori Ito putting in a triple-triple and a triple axel didn't get 6.0s across the board. They have to save some room for later.

Mao hasn't skated. Under the 6.0, 2 triple axels would have gotten her 6.0s on the technical mark.

I watched lots of 6.0 and saw many 6.0's come up over the years before the last skater.
Michelle and Yags did not have to be skating last to get 6.0's.

I believe Yuna, under 6.0 in Vancouver would have had all 1st place ordinals and the most 6.0's in history.
I believe Yuna was impressive enough that she would have won in a 6.0 landslide comparable to how she won under the CoP system in a landslide.

Instead of fans complaining that "Yuna's score was too inflated" we would have heard "Yuna received too many 6.0's." Sorry, but "same difference"

Skating goes through trends. Last season Yuna presented as close to perfectly more of what the judges were looking for than most skaters have ever been able to do on Olympic ice.

It was not an accident Yuna was called the heaviest favorite since Peggy Fleming before the games and no accident that it turned out that way.

Yuna would have received many 6.0's.....many, many, many. :yes:

R.D. · Sep 14, 2010

Blades of Passion said:
The scores were absolutely ridiculous, to be sure.

I would have scored Yu-Na at 135 (still probably too generous), which would still be a new World record. 150 was inane.

^ This.

I must add though that the Olympics was the ONE time I actually got kinda nervous watching Rachel- Mirai too for that matter. That feeling had been missing for years although it was brought back briefly at 2010 nats

miki88 · Sep 14, 2010

Yuna might have gotten 6.0s for the second mark but I don't know about the technical portion. I remember it was rare for skaters to get 6.0s for technical merit. Michelle's technique was good and she skated clean several times but still she usually didn't get perfect 6's in the technical portion. In regards to missing jumps, both Mao and Yuna do not have the full arsenal of triples. Mao didn't include a lutz or sal but she does have the 3A, so she has four out of the 6 triples. Yuna doesn't do the loop or 3A so in effect they have the same number of missing jumps.

R.D. · Sep 14, 2010

Mathman said:
I can go along with the idea that Kim skated incrementally better at the Olympics than at worlds. But twenty-two points better?

That would be like, taking Kim's championship performance at worlds and adding an extra quad Axel.

No wait, that would only give her 15 more points.

OK, a quad Axel/triple Lutz sequence. (Nope -- only 16.8).

You bring up a good point. Are scores really comparable across competitions? SHOULD they be?

If not...why are we using this system in the first place?

I understand scores might vary from year to year due to rule changes, etc...but it should NEVER be that dramatic WITHIN a season. Then we know something's screwed up...

U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

PolymerBob

R.D.

janetfan

Match Penalty

FlattFan

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Layfan

R.D.

FlattFan

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janetfan

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bekalc

janetfan

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Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

janetfan

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bekalc

miki88

FlattFan

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mskater93

janetfan

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R.D.

miki88

R.D.

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