U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

Mathman said:
I can go along with the idea that Kim skated incrementally better at the Olympics than at worlds. But twenty-two points better?

That would be like, taking Kim's championship performance at worlds and adding an extra quad Axel.

No wait, that would only give her 15 more points.

OK, a quad Axel/triple Lutz sequence. (Nope -- only 16.8).

mm, you are the one who is touting the "Olympic inflation factor."
Why does it feel like you are arguing against it here?

Yuna earned the separation in scores from the others by the way she skated. Her programs were deemd close to perfect by the judges. They did not like Mao taking us "to the gates of hell" nearly as well (big understatement).

What is the most 6.0's Michelle ever received at major international competition?
How many more do you think Yuna would have received?

dlgpffps · Sep 14, 2010

Well the 3A is beside the point (it's not even a triple, but a semi-quad mastered by only a handful), but you're right about the 3Lo. That might have led judges to deduct points. But I think janetfan has a point. Figure skating changes. Results reflect changing trends (for better or worse). Yu-na had what the judges were seeking -- ice coverage, height, speed and wonderful transitions. These days, technical merit is not measured solely by one's number of triples. She probably would not have received that many, if any, 6.0s in the technical portion, but I'd suspect her scores would be very high.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

dlgpffps said:
Well the 3A is beside the point (it's not even a triple, but a semi-quad mastered by only a handful), but you're right about the 3Lo. That might have led judges to deduct points. But I think janetfan has a point. Figure skating changes. Results reflect changing trends (for better or worse). Yu-na had what the judges were seeking -- ice coverage, height, speed and wonderful transitions. These days, technical merit is not measured solely by one's number of triples. She probably would not have received that many, if any, 6.0s in the technical portion, but I'd suspect her scores would be very high.

You are exactly right. Let's not forget Yuna's 3x3 which is so superior to her competitors that it overrides the full set of triples. The full set was more of a factor before we saw the 3x3 become the biggest scoring move in Ladies skating.

The inflation factor is not even worth a second thought to me because I will always see a skating competition as being comparitive. Yuna won by alot and that felt right to me.

miki88 · Sep 14, 2010

Well, let's not forget that nearly 20 years ago there was a lady doing 3-3's and 3A's with quality that I believe has not been rivaled even by Kim. And there was also a lady that countered with difficult 3-3 combos.

It's hardly a new phenomenon.

Mathman · Sep 14, 2010

janetfan said:
mm, you are the one who is touting the "Olympic inflation factor."

Why does it feel like you are arguing against it here?

If by "touting" you mean "approving of," no, I don't particularly.

If you mean, do I think there was inflation in the sense that the judges poured on the points as a sort of self-congratulatory celebration of the wonderfulness of all things skating, yes I think they did.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

Mathman said:
If by "touting" you mean "approving of," no, I don't particularly.

If you mean, do I think there was inflation in the sense that the judges poured on the points as a sort of self-congratulatory celebration of the wonderfulness of all things skating, yes I think they did.

Yes, I meant the latter. I don't really see the high score Yuna received as being much of a factor as to who won which medal and think it is only important when fans are discussing the CoP.

CoP and inflation feels like a good topic. Yuna dominating Ladies skating in Vancouver feels totally different to me.
That is why I mentioned 6.0 and how she would have done. Like I said , I believe Yuna would have had many 6.0's in Vancouver based on presenting so well what the judges valued the most.

Blades of Passion · Sep 14, 2010

bekalc said:
Well obviously 150 was ridiculously high but well Joannie and Mao were at 131/132 right, I think Kim was a little more than 4/5 points better, I think 140 would have been more realistic.

Joannie and Mao were overscored as well.

janetfan said:
And had the judges been using 6.0 that night how do you think Yuna would have been scored?

Technical - mostly 5.9's, with a couple 5.8's from the judges who disliked that she didn't do a 3Loop.

Presentation - a 5.8 from Japan, a 6.0 from one of the judges who loved her to death, and 5.9's from everyone else

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

Blades of Passion said:
Joannie and Mao were overscored as well.

Technical - mostly 5.9's, with a couple 5.8's from the judges who disliked that she didn't do a 3Loop.

Presentation - a 5.8 from Japan, a 6.0 from one of the judges who loved her to death, and 5.9's from everyone else

Blades, I can see your point and can agree with your marks .........but......I was not meaning this in such a literal sense. If Yuna was skating 10 years ago and felt the 3 Lo was that important for her to win I think we might have seen her doing it.

My comparison was meant more on the lines of taking a strong Olympic LP from the 6.0 era and seeing if it met more of the criteria then - than what Yuna did in relation to what today's judges are looking for under CoP.

Looking at it that way I think Yuna might have had half 6.0's on the presentation and it would not have surprised me if she got 1-2 for the technical mark.

I never saw Michelle or Irina or any of the others show such mastery of the system they were skating under as Yuna did in Vancouver. She had everything the judges were looking for and executed it extremely well and presented it impeccably.

Layfan · Sep 14, 2010

Mathman said:
I can go along with the idea that Kim skated incrementally better at the Olympics than at worlds. But twenty-two points better?

That would be like, taking Kim's championship performance at worlds and adding an extra quad Axel.

No wait, that would only give her 15 more points.

OK, a quad Axel/triple Lutz sequence. (Nope -- only 16.8).

Well, Yuna did pop jump at 2009 worlds and still got more than 130 points. Plus she had a slightly easier 3-3 combination. I remember thinking at 2009 worlds: "geez, she got 130 even though she messed up a jump. What on earth is she going to get when she does a perfect FS?" Then at 2009 Trophee Bombard, she left out a whole jump - the triple flip no less - and STILL got something like 130. So given that her Olympic FS WAS actually her best - and most technically difficult - FS ever and given the inflation that nearly everyone benefitted from at teh Olympics, I'm not sure her 150 score is that unexpected. It was the first time Yuna did a perfectly clean LP in a year. And that was the result.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

Layfan said:
Well, Yuna did pop jump at 2009 worlds and still got more than 130 points. Plus she had a slightly easier 3-3 combination. I remember thinking at 2009 worlds: "geez, she got 130 even though she messed up a jump. What on earth is she going to get when she does a perfect FS?" Then at 2009 Trophee Bombard, she left out a whole jump - the triple flip no less - and STILL got something like 130. So given that her Olympic FS WAS actually her best - and most technically difficult - FS ever and given the inflation that nearly everyone benefitted from at teh Olympics, I'm not sure her 150 score is that unexpected. It was the first time Yuna did a perfectly clean LP in a year. And that was the result.

Remember in LA - Yuna also did a spin that got 0 points. That was not repeated in Vancouver.
As good as Yuna was in LA - I think she was better in Vancouver. More sophisticted and more poised.

Layfan · Sep 14, 2010

janetfan said:
Yes, yes and yes to your three questions about inflation. Yuna was clearly better and so were laura and Joannie.

I can accept the luck factor and it often plays a big parts in sports - good for some and bad for others and always bad for the Detroit Lions

To Layfan:
Actually Rachael did not have to wait for the others. A skater from the previous group outscored her and Rachael was 2nd after she skated her LP. Of course she had to know that atleast two of the others in the last group would beat her so her disappointment was to be expected.

Now, we need a case for Yuna, Mao, Miki, Joannie, and Mirai all being gifted in their free skates for your post to sound right.

Is that what happened? I don't remember without watching all of the LP's again - but I never thought the placements were off in Vancouver. I don't see how Rachael was victimized unless a strong case could be made for her to have finished 6th or 5th.

Like RD said, it is not like she wuzrobbed of a medal. The thing to remember is that even if all of Rachel's jumps were good - she still is not as stylish a skater as Laura, Miki or Akiko.

In CoP it is about the quality of the overall skating. Spins count and Rachael's were not nearly as good as the top girls. SS counts and she is lagging behind there too.

Laura, Miki and Akiko all scored higher than Rachael in the LP. Is that a big upset? I think all three of them are much more mature looking skaters than Rachael - and unless they flub up I would expect them to outscore her.

Sorry, but I still don't get this Rachael as the victim business.

Why would I have to argue that everyone else was gifted? I'm arguing that the judges were very strict with Rachael. Frankly, I think international judges are not receptive to Rachael's skating and they showed that. And I expressed sympathy for her in my post because she skated her absolute best and they didn't respond to her skating and that's got to hurt. Why is that such a big deal? Btw, in my post, I reiterated RD's point that she wouldn't have medaled anyway - because of her low GOEs.

FlattFan · Sep 14, 2010

janetfan said:
If Yuna was skating 10 years ago and felt the 3 Lo was that important for her to win I think we might have seen her doing it.

Looking at it that way I think Yuna might have had half 6.0's on the presentation and it would not have surprised me if she got 1-2for the technical mark.

janetfan said:
I believe Yuna, under 6.0 in Vancouver would have had all 1st place ordinals and the most 6.0's in history.
I believe Yuna was impressive enough that she would have won in a 6.0 landslide comparable to how she won under the CoP system in a landslide.

most 6.0's in history = half 6.0s on the presentation and 1-2 on the technical mark? :laugh:

Are you backpedaling now?

Only you seem to think Yuna would run away with 6.0s across the board. I certain don't believe it would be the case. First, anyone in the top 3 can win the FS and win the whole thing. Mao's SP probably would have been 1st, even.

Layfan · Sep 14, 2010

janetfan said:
Remember in LA - Yuna also did a spin that got 0 points. That was not repeated in Vancouver.
As good as Yuna was in LA - I think she was better in Vancouver. More sophisticted and more poised.

She DID? Wow, I didn't remember that. Then, yes, that make her incredible score in Vancouver even more understandable.

ETA: Did any lady ever get a 6.0 for technical merit at an Olympics? I wonder if Yuna would have. I doubt across the board but maybe at least one?

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

FlattFan said:
most 6.0's in history = half 6.0s on the presentation and 1-2 on the technical mark? Are you backpedaling now?

Only you seem to think Yuna would run away with 6.0s across the board. I certain don't believe it would be the case. First, anyone in the top 3 can win the FS and win the whole thing. Mao's SP probably would have been 1st, even.

flattfan, half 6.0's for presentation and a couple for tech would be the most in Olympic history. Did any skater ever get more then 6 or 7 perfect scores on Olympic ice? I am not talking about Russian Natls, but the big show.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

Layfan said:
Why would I have to argue that everyone else was gifted? I'm arguing that the judges were very strict with Rachael. Frankly, I think international judges are not receptive to Rachael's skating and they showed that. And I expressed sympathy for her in my post because she skated her absolute best and they didn't respond to her skating and that's got to hurt. Why is that such a big deal? Btw, in my post, I reiterated RD's point that she wouldn't have medaled anyway - because of her low GOEs.

To make the point that Rachael was treated very strictly could imply the others were not. That is what I thought you meant. Sorry if I did not understand you.

Perhaps mathman was right when he suggested Rachael might have been unlucky. :think:

Mathman · Sep 14, 2010

Layfan said:
ETA: Did any lady ever get a 6.0 for technical merit at an Olympics? I wonder if Yuna would have. I doubt across the board but maybe at least one?

I don't know whether Midori Ito got a 6.0 in tech in the 1988 Olympics, when she became the first woman to land a seven-triple program at the Olympics. But at Worlds the next year she got five of them.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

Mathman said:
I don't know whether Midori Ito got a 6.0 in tech in the 1988 Olympics, when she became the first woman to land a seven-triple program at the Olympics. But at Worlds the next year she got five of them.

Midori got some 6's at the 1990 Worlds too although she finished second. I don't think she got any at the '92 Olympics with falls in each program.

Mathman · Sep 14, 2010

janetfan said:
flattfan, half 6.0's for presentation and a couple for tech would be the most in Olympic history. Did any skater ever get more then 6 or 7 perfect scores on Olympic ice? I am not talking about Russian Natls, but the big show.

I am pretty sure that Yagudin got the most ever. He got four for presentation, skating last in 2002.

This was the LP where Scott Hamilton opined, well that was a crumby skate -- he should be behind both Plushenko and Goebel -- Yags just looked like he gave up and conceded the long to Plushenko, being so far ahead pf him after the short.

I think Yagudin got 6 in the short program alone at the following World championships.

janetfan · Sep 14, 2010

Mathman said:
I am pretty sure that Yagudin got the most ever. He got four for presentation, skating last in 2002.

This was the LP where Scott Hamilton opined, well that was a crumby skate -- he should be behind both Plushenko and Goebel -- Yags just looked like he gave up and conceded the long to Plushenko, being so far ahead pf him after the short.

I think Yagudin got 6 in the short program alone at the following World championships.

I remember Yags got a bunch at SLC despite "holding back"

I don't know who has the most 6's in singles skating on Olympic ice. In the modern era Yags probably has the record.

What about going back in time? Did any of the legends from the past get more than 4?

Olympia · Sep 14, 2010

The only ones I can think of are Torvill and Dean.

U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

janetfan

Match Penalty

dlgpffps

janetfan

Match Penalty

miki88

Mathman

janetfan

Match Penalty

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

janetfan

Match Penalty

Layfan

janetfan

Match Penalty

Layfan

FlattFan

Match Penalty

Layfan

janetfan

Match Penalty

janetfan

Match Penalty

Mathman

janetfan

Match Penalty

Mathman

janetfan

Match Penalty

Olympia

Similar threads

Connect with us