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Thread: U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

  1. #16
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    I hope Nagasu can stop UR-ing in the free skates and Wagner starts taking SP's serioiusly. 2010 US nationals showed that Wagner would have gone if she didn't mess up in the short and that Nagasu almost lost her spot to Wagner because of all her URs. Now it is interesting that the rule changes may make Nagasu's URs less of a problem but rules are not the issue with Wagner. I am sure Flatt is hoping that she just was tired at worlds.

  2. #17
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    Wagner's problem isn't the SP. When she skates a clean SP, she almost always blows the FS. 2008 NHK Trophy and 2009 Jr Worlds are good examples. In short, she can't skate two clean programs under pressure. I bet on Nagasu and Flatt again. This time, in different orders.

  3. #18
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    Based on what we have seen and heard, I will say or World team and World Team Trophy team will be Ashley and Caroline in either order.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    Mirai Nagasu and Ashley Wagner are going to Worlds.

    Flatt might still finish 3rd at Nationals but her career is essentially done.
    The two skaters who might seem the best still have to prove it on the ice at Natls.
    I think too much has been made about Mirai's injury. Evan had a similar injury last off-season and all he did was win the GPF and the OGM.

    Stress fractures in the feet in a sport as demanding as skating can become chronic so it seems wise that Frank kept Mirai off the ice for six weeks. And she already had her programs and should be at full strength by mid-season. Frank knows what the deal is and his goal will be to have Mirai peaking at Natls and not a GP event in Oct or Nov.

    Rachael seemed to fade a little after Natls. It was a long season and if she comes back strong her consistency could still be a factor. It will take two good programs at Natls and unlike Ashley, Rachael has shown she can do this.

    I am not sure if all of this "now that she doesn't have to concentrate on school" is really a factor. I mean rachael was only in high school last year. Most smart kids go through high school on cruise control.

    All of the talk about Caroline needing more speed could also be true about Rachael. Part of why she gets labeled so often as a boring skater is because she is slow. Without the flexibilty of some of the other girls Rachael needs to work on the athletic aspects of her skating and to develope stylistically. With clean jumps and more speed Rachael might make a World podium with a few meltdowns from other top skaters - but should be able to continue her streak of making US podiums.

    I prefer Ashly's skating to Rachael but not sure if Ashley can compete nearly as well as Rachael. So put them on the ice for an SP and LP at Natls and that will decide it. Forget the "season" only Natls counts when it comes to making the National team.
    Last edited by janetfan; 09-04-2010 at 08:42 AM.

  5. #20
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    Czisny is getting a little old to have her breakthrough
    Ah, but the Kwaniacs will tell you that you can never be too old

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by PolymerBob View Post
    Based on what we have seen and heard, I will say or World team and World Team Trophy team will be Ashley and Caroline in either order.
    And what have you "seen" of Caroline? Care to share with us?
    Last edited by janetfan; 09-04-2010 at 07:49 AM.

  7. #22
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    It is too early for predictions.

  8. #23
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    That's why I was rooting for Alissa last year. Obviously, she always has the potential to bomb. But she has also has the potential to be spectacular. But I'm a fan, not a judge, and I suspect the judges will think more along the lines you just described.
    we have taken a chance on Alyssa not once, but TWICE already. Both times she finished out of the top 10. If I was a betting man, and I got to handpick the world team, she'd be staying home. Being 0 for 2, those are pretty lousy odds. Sorry Czisny fans...we can watch her stress-free on the GP, but I'd sooner take Flatt, Nagasu, even Wagner perhaps. I hope USFS feels the same way.
    Last edited by R.D.; 09-04-2010 at 08:05 AM.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    we have taken a chance on Alyssa not once, but TWICE already. Both times she finished out of the top 10. If I was a betting man, and I got to handpick the world team, she'd be staying home. Sorry Czisny fans...we can watch her stress-free on the GP, but I'd sooner take Flatt, Nagasu, even Wagner perhaps. I hope USFS feels the same way.
    What are you talking about? The Natl team is not hand picked like it is in Russia. And it is not based on betting or past results but on the direct result of how the skaters perform at Natls.

    Perhaps Alissa's best skating is behind her. Or maybe she will pull an "Akiko" and have a terrific season. If she scores more points than the others at Natls she will be on the Natl team. That's it.

    Predictions are fine, opinions are fine but no need to rewrite the selection rules

    Go Alissa!
    Last edited by janetfan; 09-04-2010 at 08:20 AM.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by janetfan View Post
    The two skaters who might seem the best still have to prove it on the ice at Natls.
    Last year ( 2009 ) the 2 best men who proved it “on the ice at Natls” were Jeremy Abbott and Brandon Mroz. Which one of them won Worlds?

    Quote Originally Posted by janetfan View Post
    Frank knows what the deal is and his goal will be to have Mirai peaking at Natls and not a GP event in Oct or Nov.

    I prefer Ashly's skating to Rachael but not sure if Ashley can compete nearly as well as Rachael. So put them on the ice for an SP and LP at Natls and that will decide it. Forget the "season" only Natls counts when it comes to making the National team.
    I know I’m in the minority here, but I do feel that Grand Prix results can have an effect, good or bad, on National judges. Though she did not make the Final, I think that GP performances were a factor in Alissa’s National win last year. A skater cannot zamboni the ice at the GP without losing respect with the National judges.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by PolymerBob View Post
    Last year ( 2009 ) the 2 best men who proved it “on the ice at Natls” were Jeremy Abbott and Brandon Mroz. Which one of them won Worlds?



    I know I’m in the minority here, but I do feel that Grand Prix results can have an effect, good or bad, on National judges. Though she did not make the Final, I think that GP performances were a factor in Alissa’s National win last year. A skater cannot zamboni the ice at the GP without losing respect with the National judges.
    If you are saying scoring is still heavily influenced by reputation - unfortunately I agree with you.
    As to the selection process - I think it is fine the way it is. I love Nationals and think the pressue it puts on our skaters is the best preparation for facing the pressure at Worlds.

  12. #27
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    Perhaps Alissa's best skating is behind her. Or maybe she will pull an "Akiko" and have a terrific season. If she scores more points than the others at Natls she will be on the Natl team. That's it.
    Let's look at this a bit differently then:

    in 2007, Flatt received a DG for her 3-3 in the SP. Meissner, with virtually the same amount of rotation, got away with it. Why? It may have helped that it was the case of a World champion vs. an upstart, but who knows.

    During the 2008 GP, Zhang skated pretty well, but never cracked the 110 barrier. When she performed similarly at Nationals, she and Flatt were placed behind a flawed Czisny. Was she held back due to GP results? Some think so (I personally don't, though)

    in 2009, Flatt had a near SOHL in her SA FS. Meanwhile, Nagasu was getting hammered with DGs in her events. Wagner did well for herself but didn't set any earth-shattering records. Then, at Nationals, when BOTH Flatt and Nagasu skated their best, Flatt wins big while Nagasu is hit with DGs which nearly had her off the team. Coincidence? Many thought Nagasu should have won and that she was held back.

    So what's my point, you ask? Well, the team may not have to be hand-picked, but once you get a rep, it's tough to shake off. It's like the selective ref theory in soccer- make calls that slightly favor one team. The team will still have to put in the work and win, but they get a little bit of "help", see? Skating is judged. The judges are human.

  13. #28
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    So the end result of all this is that battle for Nationals begins at the Grand Prix. The skaters can not just shrug it off as pre-season cheesefests. In a close contest, GP results will be a factor.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Let's look at this a bit differently then:

    in 2007, Flatt received a DG for her 3-3 in the SP. Meissner, with virtually the same amount of rotation, got away with it. Why? It may have helped that it was the case of a World champion vs. an upstart, but who knows.

    During the 2008 GP, Zhang skated pretty well, but never cracked the 110 barrier. When she performed similarly at Nationals, she and Flatt were placed behind a flawed Czisny. Was she held back due to GP results? Some think so (I personally don't, though)

    in 2009, Flatt had a near SOHL in her SA FS. Meanwhile, Nagasu was getting hammered with DGs in her events. Wagner did well for herself but didn't set any earth-shattering records. Then, at Nationals, when BOTH Flatt and Nagasu skated their best, Flatt wins big while Nagasu is hit with DGs which nearly had her off the team. Coincidence? Many thought Nagasu should have won and that she was held back.

    So what's my point, you ask? Well, the team may not have to be hand-picked, but once you get a rep, it's tough to shake off. It's like the selective ref theory in soccer- make calls that slightly favor one team. The team will still have to put in the work and win, but they get a little bit of "help", see? Skating is judged. The judges are human.
    I agree with this but like the majority of skating fans I wish one of the things the CoP could have done was to lessen the reputation factor. It hasn't in the least and I see that as a problem for skating. I do not see the selection process at US Natls as being problematic.

    Pick an example here or there as P-Bob did - but the facts are that US skaters have won a fair share of international medals over the years.

    Consistency from judges from event to event can be difficult. Judges are human, yes, but it appeared Speedy told the Olympic judges and tech panel to ease up and mark high in Vancouver. A problem - maybe - but not really something that should effect the Natls selection process.

    Caroline is a good example. US judges seem tougher on her at times than international judges.
    Truth be told, if Caroline is to reach her potential the way she has been judged at Nationals could be what spurs her on to fix up her technical problems. Overlooking some obvious technical problems is not going to make for more competitive skaters. The same is true for Mirai.

    We saw how Russian Natls was judged with astronomical scores last season. Did that help their skaters at the Olympics and Worlds? Did Rachael's ridiculous 200 points at Natls help her in Vancouver or at Worlds?
    Last edited by janetfan; 09-04-2010 at 08:59 AM.

  15. #30
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    I do agree that the Olympic scores were inflated, as are National scores in various countries. I don't really see that as a problem as long as all skaters are inflated equally. A problem may arise if judges are told to overlook something, like slight underrotations. Those skaters who UR are helped, while those who do not UR receive no help at all.

    Another thing I've noticed is that ISU judges seem to ignore national results. Evan Lysacek was the 3rd man at 2009 Nationals, yet he won Worlds.

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