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U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
we have taken a chance on Alyssa not once, but TWICE already. Both times she finished out of the top 10. If I was a betting man, and I got to handpick the world team, she'd be staying home. Being 0 for 2, those are pretty lousy odds. Sorry Czisny fans...we can watch her stress-free on the GP, but I'd sooner take Flatt, Nagasu, even Wagner perhaps. I hope USFS feels the same way.
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- May 15, 2009
What are you talking about? The Natl team is not hand picked like it is in Russia. And it is not based on betting or past results but on the direct result of how the skaters perform at Natls.
Perhaps Alissa's best skating is behind her. Or maybe she will pull an "Akiko" and have a terrific season. If she scores more points than the others at Natls she will be on the Natl team. That's it.
Predictions are fine, opinions are fine but no need to rewrite the selection rules
Go Alissa!
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- Feb 17, 2007
Last year ( 2009 ) the 2 best men who proved it “on the ice at Natls” were Jeremy Abbott and Brandon Mroz. Which one of them won Worlds?
I know I’m in the minority here, but I do feel that Grand Prix results can have an effect, good or bad, on National judges. Though she did not make the Final, I think that GP performances were a factor in Alissa’s National win last year. A skater cannot zamboni the ice at the GP without losing respect with the National judges.
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If you are saying scoring is still heavily influenced by reputation - unfortunately I agree with you.
As to the selection process - I think it is fine the way it is. I love Nationals and think the pressue it puts on our skaters is the best preparation for facing the pressure at Worlds.
Let's look at this a bit differently then:
in 2007, Flatt received a DG for her 3-3 in the SP. Meissner, with virtually the same amount of rotation, got away with it. Why? It may have helped that it was the case of a World champion vs. an upstart, but who knows.
During the 2008 GP, Zhang skated pretty well, but never cracked the 110 barrier. When she performed similarly at Nationals, she and Flatt were placed behind a flawed Czisny. Was she held back due to GP results? Some think so (I personally don't, though)
in 2009, Flatt had a near SOHL in her SA FS. Meanwhile, Nagasu was getting hammered with DGs in her events. Wagner did well for herself but didn't set any earth-shattering records. Then, at Nationals, when BOTH Flatt and Nagasu skated their best, Flatt wins big while Nagasu is hit with DGs which nearly had her off the team. Coincidence? Many thought Nagasu should have won and that she was held back.
So what's my point, you ask? Well, the team may not have to be hand-picked, but once you get a rep, it's tough to shake off. It's like the selective ref theory in soccer- make calls that slightly favor one team. The team will still have to put in the work and win, but they get a little bit of "help", see? Skating is judged. The judges are human.
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So the end result of all this is that battle for Nationals begins at the Grand Prix. The skaters can not just shrug it off as pre-season cheesefests. In a close contest, GP results will be a factor.
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I agree with this but like the majority of skating fans I wish one of the things the CoP could have done was to lessen the reputation factor. It hasn't in the least and I see that as a problem for skating. I do not see the selection process at US Natls as being problematic.
Pick an example here or there as P-Bob did - but the facts are that US skaters have won a fair share of international medals over the years.
Consistency from judges from event to event can be difficult. Judges are human, yes, but it appeared Speedy told the Olympic judges and tech panel to ease up and mark high in Vancouver. A problem - maybe - but not really something that should effect the Natls selection process.
Caroline is a good example. US judges seem tougher on her at times than international judges.
Truth be told, if Caroline is to reach her potential the way she has been judged at Nationals could be what spurs her on to fix up her technical problems. Overlooking some obvious technical problems is not going to make for more competitive skaters. The same is true for Mirai.
We saw how Russian Natls was judged with astronomical scores last season. Did that help their skaters at the Olympics and Worlds? Did Rachael's ridiculous 200 points at Natls help her in Vancouver or at Worlds?
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I do agree that the Olympic scores were inflated, as are National scores in various countries. I don't really see that as a problem as long as all skaters are inflated equally. A problem may arise if judges are told to overlook something, like slight underrotations. Those skaters who UR are helped, while those who do not UR receive no help at all.
Another thing I've noticed is that ISU judges seem to ignore national results. Evan Lysacek was the 3rd man at 2009 Nationals, yet he won Worlds.
Another thing I've noticed is that ISU judges seem to ignore national results. Evan Lysacek was the 3rd man at 2009 Nationals, yet he won Worlds.
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Did Evan winning the GPF help him win Natls?
We can all cite examples to back up a point - ex: Ashley was the top girl for US in last season's GP. She was beaten at Natls by two skaters who did not make the GPF. Ashley's superior showing at ther GP did not help her place ahead of Mirai at Natls.
It is more complicated, reputations still carry too much sway but ultimately how you skate at Natls is what determines your fate.
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I think that's only natural, even if it's a subconscious decision (remember, judges are human).
And I also hoped the Cop would "lessen the reputation factor" but maybe that would work only if you had a large enough "judge pool" that you had a COMPLETELY different panel for every event, from season to season. No one judge judges more than one competition unless the field is completely different. Even then, you may still see patterns. But definitely, all the ISU did was change the scoring system, instead of the judging community. Of course you will still see the same biases.
Anyway, I don't want to go too deep into "judge theory" here in this thread. As for Zhang- I'd rather see her skate at least once before having any real opinion on her. All I've heard is some posters saying she's fixing her technique, and a poster or two using that news to suddenly declare her a major contender again. I think the real wildcard(s) this season will be the up-and-comers, though.
ETA:
But Wagner flubbed the SP. Nagasu and Flatt nailed BOTH parts of the competition. And Nagasu was hit hard enough with DGs than Wagner almost got on the team anyway. If Wagner went clean, you bet the Olympic team would have been Flatt and Wagner and Nagasu would have been the one missing out.
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- May 15, 2009
I agree about Caroline. She might struggle at the start of the season and not show her best until later in the season. We saw that from Mirai last season. New coaches are not miracle workers and skaters need time when making changes....
You peeps are so bold with your predictions
I secretely feel the same way but I'm too whimpy to make those predictions because so much depends on injuries and if one of those girld has an off-night... But assuming clean skates, I agree that the the top three will be Mirai, Ashley and Gao.... I said this a while ago in another thread. Gao for sure needs more polish. She's young but not that young. I mean, she's not that much younger than Mirai and Mirai looks way more polished. And if you look back to Michelle, Sasha and Sarah at that age...
I'm curious to see how much room for improvement Ashley has. I think she definitely can improve her technique and cut down on the little things like two-footed jumps. But does she have it in her to pull of a 3-3. With Mirai, you can sort of see that she does. her jumps are big and you sense that there is room for more. But she has these injurity problems all the time...
Also, I wish Ashley was sharper in her footwork. The difficulty is there _ Rachael too _ but somehow she doesn't quite sell it as much I would like. But I actually really love Ashley's spirals - her positions are nice, they are sort of underappreciated, I think.
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Thankyou RD. My point exactly. Had Ashley won the bronze at the GPF last season after the way she skated at Natls she still would have been watching the Olympics at home on TV.
It is the reutation scoring that is a problem - not the GP series or the selection process for Natls.
Ashley finished third and USA could only send two girls. Ashley's stronger GP season did not help her earn a spot on the Natl team, nor should it have.
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Good point - but again it is about reputation scoring. Did Mirai rotate all of her jumps better in Vancouver than at Natls?
Or was the tech panel more lenient? Maybe some of the experts here are better qualified to answer that than I am.
I did not see much difference, but I am not looking at slow-mo replays the way the judges are.
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Also, had Ashley made the podium at the GP Final, would that have been worth another 2 points in her National short and another 3 points in her free? I think just possibly.
Well, sometimes skaters make it impossible for the judges to dismiss them - Paul Wylie making it onto the '92 Olympics team, for instance. It's possible that Alissa could do this. If she skates perfectly, if she skates amazingly, it will be hard for the judges to leave her off the team.
I think R.D. and Janetfan are both kind of right. The judges won't just get together and decide to leave someone like Alissa off the team if she skates brilliantly. On the other hand, I believe she will have to be amazing. They are going to be hard on her mistakes, so she can't have too many.
But as for taking another "chance" on Alissa, what is the big deal? Last year people went on and on about how Rachael had to be on the team to get those three spots back. She and Nagasu were not able to pull it off any better than Alissa was. Ashley has proved time again that she flubs under pressure and she was on the team that lost the three spots in the first place so I do not understand why some people are so determined that she MUST be on the team.
I guess I don't belong to U.S. skating and maybe that is why I think this way: But how boring is it to watch worlds just to see if our girls can get three spots, rather than actually root for them to get a medal or two. I'd rather watch good competition and that means sending the two who skate spectacularly, not just serviceably.
If Alissa does something like this at nationals:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dq8knstUZls
I would certainly hope she'd be on the podium.
I think R.D. and Janetfan are both kind of right. The judges won't just get together and decide to leave someone like Alissa off the team if she skates brilliantly. On the other hand, I believe she will have to be amazing. They are going to be hard on her mistakes, so she can't have too many.
But as for taking another "chance" on Alissa, what is the big deal? Last year people went on and on about how Rachael had to be on the team to get those three spots back. She and Nagasu were not able to pull it off any better than Alissa was. Ashley has proved time again that she flubs under pressure and she was on the team that lost the three spots in the first place so I do not understand why some people are so determined that she MUST be on the team.
I guess I don't belong to U.S. skating and maybe that is why I think this way: But how boring is it to watch worlds just to see if our girls can get three spots, rather than actually root for them to get a medal or two. I'd rather watch good competition and that means sending the two who skate spectacularly, not just serviceably.
If Alissa does something like this at nationals:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dq8knstUZls
I would certainly hope she'd be on the podium.
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Somehow I don't think so. I think it would have turned out the same. After all, the skater still has to deliver on her end, and Wagner got outskated by Nagasu, Flatt AND Cohen in the SP. She dug herself too deep a hole. The only way she could have fought back is if she nailed the FS while two of those three skaters made major mistakes. She nailed the FS, but, unluckily for her, two of the other three skaters did as well.
Now, if Nagasu had a stumble or fall, I think Wagner would have made the team. But Nagasu made it very difficult for the officials to leave her off the team- even with the DGs she still came out ahead.
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