- Joined
- May 15, 2009
Based on what we have seen and heard, I will say or World team and World Team Trophy team will be Ashley and Caroline in either order.
And what have you "seen" of Caroline? Care to share with us?
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Based on what we have seen and heard, I will say or World team and World Team Trophy team will be Ashley and Caroline in either order.
That's why I was rooting for Alissa last year. Obviously, she always has the potential to bomb. But she has also has the potential to be spectacular. But I'm a fan, not a judge, and I suspect the judges will think more along the lines you just described.
we have taken a chance on Alyssa not once, but TWICE already. Both times she finished out of the top 10. If I was a betting man, and I got to handpick the world team, she'd be staying home. Sorry Czisny fans...we can watch her stress-free on the GP, but I'd sooner take Flatt, Nagasu, even Wagner perhaps. I hope USFS feels the same way.
The two skaters who might seem the best still have to prove it on the ice at Natls.
Frank knows what the deal is and his goal will be to have Mirai peaking at Natls and not a GP event in Oct or Nov.
I prefer Ashly's skating to Rachael but not sure if Ashley can compete nearly as well as Rachael. So put them on the ice for an SP and LP at Natls and that will decide it. Forget the "season" only Natls counts when it comes to making the National team.
Last year ( 2009 ) the 2 best men who proved it “on the ice at Natls” were Jeremy Abbott and Brandon Mroz. Which one of them won Worlds?
I know I’m in the minority here, but I do feel that Grand Prix results can have an effect, good or bad, on National judges. Though she did not make the Final, I think that GP performances were a factor in Alissa’s National win last year. A skater cannot zamboni the ice at the GP without losing respect with the National judges.
Perhaps Alissa's best skating is behind her. Or maybe she will pull an "Akiko" and have a terrific season. If she scores more points than the others at Natls she will be on the Natl team. That's it.
Let's look at this a bit differently then:
in 2007, Flatt received a DG for her 3-3 in the SP. Meissner, with virtually the same amount of rotation, got away with it. Why? It may have helped that it was the case of a World champion vs. an upstart, but who knows.
During the 2008 GP, Zhang skated pretty well, but never cracked the 110 barrier. When she performed similarly at Nationals, she and Flatt were placed behind a flawed Czisny. Was she held back due to GP results? Some think so (I personally don't, though)
in 2009, Flatt had a near SOHL in her SA FS. Meanwhile, Nagasu was getting hammered with DGs in her events. Wagner did well for herself but didn't set any earth-shattering records. Then, at Nationals, when BOTH Flatt and Nagasu skated their best, Flatt wins big while Nagasu is hit with DGs which nearly had her off the team. Coincidence? Many thought Nagasu should have won and that she was held back.
So what's my point, you ask? Well, the team may not have to be hand-picked, but once you get a rep, it's tough to shake off. It's like the selective ref theory in soccer- make calls that slightly favor one team. The team will still have to put in the work and win, but they get a little bit of "help", see? Skating is judged. The judges are human.
I do agree that the Olympic scores were inflated, as are National scores in various countries. I don't really see that as a problem as long as all skaters are inflated equally. A problem may arise if judges are told to overlook something, like slight underrotations. Those skaters who UR are helped, while those who do not receive no help at all.
Another thing I've noticed is that ISU judges seem to ignore national results. Evan Lysacek was the 3rd man at 2009 Nationals, yet he won Worlds.
So the end result of all this is that battle for Nationals begins at the Grand Prix. The skaters can not just shrug it off as pre-season cheesefests. In a close contest, GP results will be a factor.
We can cite examples to back up a point and Ashley was the top girl for US in last season's GP. She was beaten at Natls by two skaters who did not make the GPF.
Anyway, I don't want to go too deep into "judge theory" here in this thread. As for Zhang- I'd rather see her skate at least once before having any real opinion on her. All I've heard is some posters saying she's fixing her technique, and a poster or two using that news to suddenly declare her a major contender again. I think the real wildcard(s) this season will be the up-and-comers, though.
Mirai Nagasu and Ashley Wagner are going to Worlds.
Flatt might still finish 3rd at Nationals but her career is essentially done.
Nagasu and Gao are the future of the US ladies for now - I expect them to go 1 and 2 at nats.
Flatt and Wagner are on the cusp of greatness, if they can improve, they could really be a factor internationally, but if they regress at all, I feel like they may be done.
Emily Hughes, Sasha Cohen, Kimmie Meissner are all done.
Czisny is getting a little old to have her breakthrough, and with Zhang it's too soon to tell, but if she can overhaul her technique than she might have a shot.
Gilles and Zawadzki are probably too tall, but could surprise and do really well at nationals this year.
But Wagner flubbed the SP. Nagasu and Flatt nailed BOTH parts of the competition. And Nagasu was hit hard enough with DGs than Wagner almost got on the team anyway. If Wagner went clean, you bet the Olympic team would have been Flatt and Wagner and Nagasu would have been the one missing out.
To play DA- if Nagasu had NOT gotten as many DGs during the GP- would she have gotten the benefit of the doubt at Nationals? It was the difference between her winning and nearly missing the Oly team...food for thought, but that's for another time.
Also, had Ashley made the podium at the GP Final, would that have been worth another 2 points in her National short and another 3 points in her free? I think just possibly.