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Thread: U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

  1. #61
    Banned janetfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadine View Post
    Ever since Sarah Hughes left (one of my all-time favorites, along with Sonja Henie, Oksana Baiul, Elvis Stojko, and Evgeni Plushenko),

    But no one has yet captured my heart like Sarah, Sonja, Oksana, Elvis, and Evgeni have. With them, I was there from the very beginning, love at first sight as regards their skating. (:^)
    You were there from the beginning of Sonja's career? Wasn't that around 1924?

    and I thought after mathman I was the oldest poster at GS
    Last edited by janetfan; 09-04-2010 at 02:29 PM.

  2. #62
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    Lol, I realized my mistake after posting, but I thought most would know what I mean. :D

    Actually it was the incomparable Dorothy Hamill whom first turned me onto skating as a young babe (lol, I even had her haircut in elementary school), but it was Sonja Henie who made me love it. I read all I could about her back then, the start of a love of history, and even have a little mini museum devoted to her (along with those I mentioned previously).

    But back on topic, I really am looking forward to seeing what the Americans can do. At the same time though there is a pang in my heart knowing that the Russians have Elizaveta, Japan Mao Asada (& Miki Ando), and the USA no female that can do a 3A or 4S. :( Seriously, I am sad about this because the jumps are special to me.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadine View Post
    I have to be honest though and say I am disappointed that no American female has appeared that can do a 3A (shades of Tonya Harding's rousing skating from the old days). We used to be such a force in women's skating, always blazing the path for everyone else to follow (both technical & presentation), and now for the first time in history not one American female medalled at this past Olympics. I'm hoping we catch up with the rest of the world, especially when it comes to the technical aspect. I do have "hope". (:^)
    Yeah, the last one that tried was Meissner, and I think she was only successful once (2005 Nats). Then again, the 3A isn't everything as we saw Asada do TWO of them in Vancouver and it still wasn't enough for the OGM. I think it will be worth more points this year. I don't know of any of the current American ladies that can do one, but honestly, I think we have bigger concerns than that. First, we need a lady who can CONSISTENTLY be competitive at the top. That's what's been missing since 4 years ago. No one to challenge at the top. Kwan and Cohen sure left a massive void in US women's skating, that's for sure. Hopefully last cycle was a rebuilding phase and we'll see the re-emergence of the American ladies this cycle.
    Last edited by R.D.; 09-04-2010 at 03:04 PM.

  4. #64
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    Here is a younger Mirai practicing a 3A.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hdBcickrUg

    But it doesn't really look much like this one:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JM5Ed3ardM
    Last edited by janetfan; 09-04-2010 at 03:23 PM.

  5. #65
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by janetfan View Post
    I get surprised at times when posters make the GP events more important than they are.
    I look at it like this. Athletes should take every competition seriously in its own right, never mind what happens later. Tdd Eldredge won five Skate America titles, the most of almost anyone. I think, and I hope Todd does, too, that that's a pretty cool achievement, whether he went on to win the world championship or not. Katy Taylor won the 2006 Four Continents! Ta-da!

    About success on the Grand Prix and reputation judging at U.S. Nationals, I tend to agree with you that the effect is minor. Yes, judges are human and reputation is reputation. Still, I hope that everyone connected with the USFSA will continue to regard the U.S. championship as a big deal in its own right, not just as a stepping stone to worlds. Hey, you just won the championship of the whole U.S. of everlovin' A.!!!!

  6. #66
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    I look at it like this. Athletes should take every competition seriously in its own right, never mind what happens later. Tdd Eldredge won five Skate America titles, the most of almost anyone. I think, and I hope Todd does, too, that that's a pretty cool achievement, whether he went on to win the world championship or not. Katy Taylor won the 2006 Four Continents! Ta-da!

    About success on the Grand Prix and reputation judging at U.S. Nationals, I tend to agree with you that the effect is minor. Yes, judges are human and reputation is reputation. Still, I hope that everyone connected with the USFSA will continue to regard the U.S. championship as a big deal in its own right, not just as a stepping stone to worlds. Hey, you just won the championship of the whole U.S. of everlovin' A.!!!!
    True, Nationals is a big deal competition in an of itself. Mirai may have done better than Rachael at the Olympics but she is not national champion. I'm sure that will be a goal for her, not just making the world team.
    It all depends on context. Rudy Galiano's 1996 national champion was huge. It was the highlight of the career and was almost like winning a worlds for him. Alissa Czisny's 2009 national championship... not so much. I'm sure she treasures the moment but she's got to wish that she had won with an amazing FS skate and gone on to do well at worlds. And Jeremy Abbott is another champion who can't seem to medal at worlds. He's a two-time champ, which is nice, but he was been completely overshadowed by Evan.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Still, I hope that everyone connected with the USFSA will continue to regard the U.S. championship as a big deal in its own right, not just as a stepping stone to worlds. Hey, you just won the championship of the whole U.S. of everlovin' A.!!!!
    Well, you might be dissappointed there. Here are the Team A, Tier 1 criteria for the 2009 - 2010 season.

    Team A - Tier 1

    -Medalists (top three) at the 2009 World Championships
    -2009 U.S. senior champions

    And here are the Team A, Tier 1 criteria for the 2010 - 2011 season.

    Team A - Tier 1
    -Placements 1st-3rd at the 2011 ISU World Figure Skating Championships
    -2011 U.S. senior champion combined with a top-10 finish at 2011 ISU World Figure Skating Championships

    Apparently being U.S. champion no longer guarantees Team A Tier 1. Some posters have called this the Abbott/Czisny rule. Of course, we all remember those infamous rules for picking the Olympic team.
    I think what's going on here is that the USFSA is starting to value US championships less because, well let's face it, no matter how bad our skaters are, there will always be US champions. Our skaters can all zamboni the ice with their butts, there will ALWAYS be US champions.
    What the USFSA values are skaters can go out into the world and battle the foreign warriors.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by PolymerBob View Post
    And here are the Team A, Tier 1 criteria for the 2010 - 2011 season.

    Team A - Tier 1
    -Placements 1st-3rd at the 2011 ISU World Figure Skating Championships
    -2011 U.S. senior champion combined with a top-10 finish at 2011 ISU World Figure Skating Championships

    Apparently being U.S. champion no longer guarantees Team A Tier 1. Some posters have called this the Abbott/Czisny rule. Of course, we all remember those infamous rules for picking the Olympic team.
    I think what's going on here is that the USFSA is starting to value US championships less because, well let's face it, no matter how bad our skaters are, there will always be US champions.
    Really? Wow. I think the issue is that traditionally, the US champion places top 10 at Worlds anyway so there was no need to specify it. My, how times change!!
    Last edited by R.D.; 09-04-2010 at 07:26 PM.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by PolymerBob View Post
    Well, you might be dissappointed there. Here are the Team A, Tier 1 criteria for the 2009 - 2010 season.

    Team A - Tier 1

    -Medalists (top three) at the 2009 World Championships
    -2009 U.S. senior champions

    And here are the Team A, Tier 1 criteria for the 2010 - 2011 season.

    Team A - Tier 1
    -Placements 1st-3rd at the 2011 ISU World Figure Skating Championships
    -2011 U.S. senior champion combined with a top-10 finish at 2011 ISU World Figure Skating Championships

    Apparently being U.S. champion no longer guarantees Team A Tier 1. Some posters have called this the Abbott/Czisny rule. Of course, we all remember those infamous rules for picking the Olympic team.
    I think what's going on here is that the USFSA is starting to value US championships less because, well let's face it, no matter how bad our skaters are, there will always be US champions. Our skaters can all zamboni the ice with their butts, there will ALWAYS be US champions.
    .
    I think part of the point some of us were making earlier was that the GP series is not anywhere near as important as nationals or Worlds. I don't think I read a single post here that said Worlds was not important or that has anything to do with the point of your post. Did I miss an argument somewhere that Worlds is not important?

    US Skating has a major network contract for Nationals. It will always be important even to new fans who haven't followed it for a long time. The criteria for better or worse seems OK to me.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by PolymerBob View Post
    Well, you might be dissappointed there. Here are the Team A, Tier 1 criteria for the 2009 - 2010 season.

    Team A - Tier 1

    -Medalists (top three) at the 2009 World Championships
    -2009 U.S. senior champions

    And here are the Team A, Tier 1 criteria for the 2010 - 2011 season.

    Team A - Tier 1
    -Placements 1st-3rd at the 2011 ISU World Figure Skating Championships
    -2011 U.S. senior champion combined with a top-10 finish at 2011 ISU World Figure Skating Championships

    Apparently being U.S. champion no longer guarantees Team A Tier 1. Some posters have called this the Abbott/Czisny rule. Of course, we all remember those infamous rules for picking the Olympic team.
    I think what's going on here is that the USFSA is starting to value US championships less because, well let's face it, no matter how bad our skaters are, there will always be US champions. Our skaters can all zamboni the ice with their butts, there will ALWAYS be US champions. What the USFSA values are skaters can go out into the world and battle the foreign warriors.


    I never thought of it that way ...

    But I don't know if I like that rule...

    So basically, only Mirai and Rachael are guaranteed a spot on the world team if they are national champion, correct? If Alissa or Ashley or Christina or anyone else wins they might be left off the team? Would that be unprecedented? I'd really like to see them try it ... Imagine if they diss the national champion only to see whoever they send fall apart at worlds. Yeah, that would make them look like geniuses. Anyone can fall apart. Heck Mirai and Rachael both flubbed at last year's worlds.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    I never thought of it that way ...

    But I don't know if I like that rule...

    So basically, only Mirai and Rachael are guaranteed a spot on the world team if they are national champion, correct? If Alissa or Ashley or Christina or anyone else wins they might be left off the team? Would that be unprecedented? I'd really like to see them try it ... Imagine if they diss the national champion only to see whoever they send fall apart at worlds. Yeah, that would make them look like geniuses. Anyone can fall apart. Heck Mirai and Rachael both flubbed at last year's worlds.
    If US Skating values Natls less how does anyone explain that Rachael, our Natl champ got better funding than Mirai, who did better at the Olympics and Worlds?
    Natls devalued? I think not!

    This is nonsense and contradictory.
    Last edited by janetfan; 09-04-2010 at 07:52 PM.

  12. #72
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Good point.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    Good point.
    I have no idea what point Polymeer bob is trying to make.

    It doesn't matter what theories or rules he cites - we know that the medalists at Natls will be the skaters sent to Worlds and the Olympics.

    In extreme cases (Michelle's petition) this can change. Otherwise it is a tradition begun before most here followed skating. I doubt it will change anytime soon - certainly not for the GP series or over funding envelopes.
    Last edited by janetfan; 09-04-2010 at 07:50 PM.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post

    So basically, only Mirai and Rachael are guaranteed a spot on the world team if they are national champion, correct? If Alissa or Ashley or Christina or anyone else wins they might be left off the team? Would that be unprecedented?
    Actually no. This is envelope criteria, which controls funding. It does not control who gets sent to which event. The top 2 ladies at Nationals will go to Worlds. Other events do not have any bearing except to the extent that they influence the National judges.

  15. #75
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PolymerBob View Post
    Actually no. This is envelope criteria, which controls funding. It does not control who gets sent to which event. The top 2 ladies at Nationals will go to Worlds. Other events do not have any bearing except to the extent that they influence the National judges.
    Ah, okay, sorry!! I thought they had changed the rules about choosing the team, but it's just that funding business again. Whew.

    But I think Janetfan raises a good point: The way those rules apply they STILL value the national championships a little more than even worlds. To get better funding than the U.S. champ you have to medal plus have the national champ finish lower than 10th, correct? You can't just do better than the U.S. champ at worlds. So even Flatt wouldn't have pulled it off in 2009, I understand correctly. She and Alissa both would have been in a lower tier, no?

    Anyway, sure, past events must color the judge's eyes a little but only to an extent. I think you would be hard pressed to find someone who was given clear preferential treatment, or negative treatment at nats just because of the GP or other past events.
    R.D. tried to make a case for 2010 speculating that Ashley would have made the team instead of Mirai if she hadn't fallen on her SP. Mayyyybeee... OTH, if that's how they were thinking you would think they would have given Rachael better treatment, given her fifth place finish at 2009 worlds which is really more impressive than Ashley's fourth at the GP final. Yet Rachael placed third in the SP behind Cohen and Mirai even though Rachael had no clear mistakes. They gave Mirai 70. I mean, they placed her ahead of Sasha Cohen.... My point is, you can try to read into things but in the end, the top two finishers were the ones with the two best skates in 2010. Not the ones with the better results at the GP or any of the rest.
    Last edited by Layfan; 09-04-2010 at 08:01 PM.

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