U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread | Page 59 | Golden Skate

U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

janetfan

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May 15, 2009
Even if we had 3 spots for Vancouver I don't think we would have had a medalist there. Assuming no X-Factor, Wagner would have had that last spot. Not sure if she would have topped Nagasu in point totals even if she was clean in both portions.

I agree RD. It seems like a bad dream to think three spots would have changed anything.
We could have sent Rachael, Mirai, Alissa, Ashley, Caroline, Sasha, Emily and Lady GaGa to Vancouver and we still would not have come away with a medal.

Yuna, Mao and Joannie were not going to get beaten by lesser skaters in Vancouver.


Mirai gave it a good shot and Rachael was judged harshly by the judges.
It was a nice streak started by Peggy back in '68........but it ended with Sasha in 2006.

It was nice that Mirai mentioned the streak and said she was sorry not to have kept it going. Then she said she will start a new one in 2014. :)
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
The last three US ladies teams have all been different. All three teams have not been good enough to earn three spots. It is no wonder they haven't been good enough for a medal.

But I'm not saying it can't happen soon - maybe even this year. There have been flashes - Rachael with her fifth place finish in 09, Mirai winning the short in '10 and now Alissa is the GPF medalist... so the US girls can get the darned spot back if they skate well at worlds, no problem. And they could medal, too.

I have a feeling that Rachael and Mirai will be back on form at nationals and it will be a big fight to be on that team. And if Alissa does what she did today she'll be hard to beat. We'll see what Ashley does but if nothing else she will be determined and fierce. Gao and Agnes will have the benefit of no pressure. And if they're on the team, who's to say they won't be solid at worlds? They'll go in like Rachael did in '09 - with no real pressure on them to medal.

I think we'll be sending a strong team to worlds - and this year there is no Olympics in between. This year is the year :yes:
 
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bekalc

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Joined
Nov 1, 2006
I agree RD. It seems like a bad dream to think three spots would have changed anything.
We could have sent Rachael, Mirai, Alissa, Ashley, Caroline, Sasha, Emily and Lady GaGa to Vancouver and we still would not have come away with a medal.

Yuna, Mao and Joannie were not going to get beaten by lesser skaters in Vancouver.


Mirai gave it a good shot and Rachael was judged harshly by the judges.
It was a nice streak started by Peggy back in '68........but it ended with Sasha in 2006.

It was nice that Mirai mentioned the streak and said she was sorry not to have kept it going. Then she said she will start a new one in 2014. :)

I don't think anybody was suggesting that we'd actually MEDAL at the Olympics, but the 3 spots would have been nice because it would have given another US lady an Olympic experience. Perhaps having 3 ladies would have taken a little pressure of Rachael/Mirai and we'd have had 3 spots for this years worlds which once again would give another US girl more experience. 3 spots is always a good thing to have.
 

janetfan

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May 15, 2009
I don't think anybody was suggesting that we'd actually MEDAL at the Olympics, but the 3 spots would have been nice because it would have given another US lady an Olympic experience. Perhaps having 3 ladies would have taken a little pressure of Rachael/Mirai and we'd have had 3 spots for this years worlds which once again would give another US girl more experience. 3 spots is always a good thing to have.

I agree and would also say four spots are better than three - but they don't allow it.
That is an antiquated rule that should be looked at IMO.

I still think a little too much is made over the three spots. It feels like it will happen when two of our girls skate well enough to get it back.

Alissa and Rachael were not good enough two seasons ago and Rachael and Mirai were not good enough last season. I see no reason to blame them other than to say the US champion has to place higher. When that happens we will get the third spot back.

Two years ago our Silver Lady placed 5th but the champion faltered. Last season our Silver Lady placed 7th and our champion faltered. This is not complicated and we need two good placements and the third spot will return.

Of course it is more fun for fans but realistically it is not like a "Sarah Hughes" was left off the team.
Our best Ladies are not as competitive as Sarah was and I don't buy the reasoning our chances are diminished because of two spots.

At the moment out talent level has dropped. Ashley could have gone to Vancouver but so far she has shown she is no Sarah.

Sarah did not just win the OGM, she also was the only skater in the world to beat Kwan and Slutskaya the season leading into the Olympics. As it turned out she beat them twice. :)

Japan could make a case if they only had two skaters. They have more than two who are genuine podium contenders. But that is why they also have three spots. :yes:

Sorry fans, but for the last few seasons USA has not had the quality of the past.

As I said, we could have sent two or six to Vancouver and it wouldn't have changed anything. There was no Sarah left off the team good enough to change the predicted outcome.

Contrary to those who don't like the selection process it seems like Rachael and Mirai were our two best skaters last season. That is who we sent. They were not good enough.
 
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R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Of course it is more fun for fans but realistically it is not like a "Sarah Hughes" was left off the team.
Our best Ladies are not as competitive as Sarah was and I don't buy the reasoning our chances are diminished because of two spots.

At the moment out talent level has dropped. Ashley could have gone to Vancouver but so far she has shown she is no Sarah.

Exactly. Not even close.

Now, what about Czisny? She has shown with her GPF score that she CAN theoretically be competitive for a world medal. If only she had some consistency she could rival the other Americans and give us at least some interim hope until the next generation steps up.
 

janetfan

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May 15, 2009
Exactly. Not even close.

Now, what about Czisny? She has shown with her GPF score that she CAN theoretically be competitive for a world medal. If only she had some consistency she could rival the other Americans and give us at least some interim hope until the next generation steps up.

I respect Joesitz comments about sending "the strongest."

Do you think Alissa should be given a free ticket to Worlds from US Skating for winning the GPF - or as Joesitz keeps repeating we need the strongest.

As much as I love Alissa's skating I agree with Joe for once. :)
Alissa needs to prove she is the strongest by turning in two good skates at Natls.

What could be more clear - or more FAIR?
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Do you think Alissa should be given a free ticket to Worlds from US Skating for winning the GPF - or as Joesitz keeps repeating we need the strongest.

Absolutely not, at least not with just two spots. (If we had 3, I *might* say give one to her and award the other two at Nationals, on the condition that she places top 5 in that competition.) As I said on twitter, I want to see her prove herself again at Nats.

Where the GPF comes in, though, is in a situation where, say Wagner is 2nd, and Czisny is a CLOSE 3rd behind her. One can make a justification to send Czisny over Wagner based on the former's GPF win. Not sure if I would do so personally or not, but it is a decision justifiable by many. I know you will disagree with this, but I feel one should take the ENTIRE season into account, with Nationals results looked at first, then GP performances (pointwise, not placement-wise), then (if applicable) performances at previous Worlds.

Alissa needs to prove she is the strongest by turning in two good skates at Natls.

What could be more clear - or more FAIR?

Well, how about starting with judging her fairly based on how she performs on THOSE nights and not giving her any favors or any "padding" based on her GP victory?
 
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PolymerBob

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Joined
Feb 17, 2007
Where the GPF comes in, though, is in a situation where, say Wagner is 2nd, and Czisny is a CLOSE 3rd behind her. One can make a justification to send Czisny over Wagner based on the former's GPF win.

Well, how about starting with judging her fairly based on how she performs on THOSE nights and not giving her any favors or any "padding" based on her GP victory?

If Alissa's GPF win helps her get on the World team, there are only 2 ways. Either .......

1) Alissa would be a close 3rd or 4th, but gets bumped up a few points into 2nd. or .....
2) Alissa is a close 3rd or 4th, but gets sent to Worlds anyway.

It looks likes you prefer 2), but I think the USFSA would prefer 1).
 

janetfan

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May 15, 2009
Well, how about starting with judging her fairly based on how she performs on THOSE nights and not giving her any favors or any "padding" based on her GP victory?

Not a problem - but really a different topic. A thread on the judging at Natls would be interesting ......as many posters think they have been far from fair over the years not to mention the last few seasons.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Exactly. Not even close.

Now, what about Czisny? She has shown with her GPF score that she CAN theoretically be competitive for a world medal. If only she had some consistency she could rival the other Americans and give us at least some interim hope until the next generation steps up.

I have always thought Czisny could contend for a world medal. Same with Mirai and Rachael. Why not? If GPF Alissa shows up at worlds she could medal. Same with Olympic Mirai and Olympic Rachael. I think GPF Alissa and Olympic Rachael are little at the more at mercy of what the other skaters do - If Carolina had skated a smidge better and Miki hadn't messed up her SP they would have beat Alissa. But that is the way competition is and all the skaters can do is their best - a huge part of the competition is who lays it down that night not who is theoretically the best. Alissa's best could very well be could enough for a world medal. Or it could be good enough to win the third spot back and that would be great too.

I think Olympic Mirai is the least at the mercy of what the other skaters do. She probably wouldn't beat Olympic Yuna or Mao - but she could beat all the other ladies even when the other ladies skate their best. I just hope we see Olympic Mirai sometime this season :thumbsup:
 

PolymerBob

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Feb 17, 2007
So we can send Worlds Mirai to Four Continents, and Olympic Mirai to Worlds. That way, neither one will be tired out. :laugh:

But seriously, I am very interested in seeing which Alissa shows up to Nationals.
 
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janetfan

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May 15, 2009
The million-dollar question.

Can you or anybody think of a better way to see how strong Alissa will be heading towards Worlds than to have her compete for a place on the Natl team?

Can we study scores and watch tapes and then take a vote in the backroom - or is it more honest and direct to watch her skate for it against the others?

The beauty of Natls exists on many levels ...... :)
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Can you or anybody think of a better way to see how strong Alissa will be heading towards Worlds than to have her compete for a place on the Natl team?

I can tell from your replies to me that you are misunderstanding my point. I AGREE that Nationals is should be the cornerstone of figuring out where everybody stands. I think it should be considered FIRST when picking the team. It just shouldn't be the ONLY factor. See?

So yes, I'd like to see her prove herself at Nats. Unlike a few posters, I'm not convinced she has found this magic bullet that has automatically cured her of inconsistent performances.

Can we study scores and watch tapes and then take a vote in the backroom - or is it more honest and direct to watch her skate for it against the others?

If the judges don't judge what they see on the ice, quite frankly I do not see much difference between these two scenarios.
 
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FlattFan

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Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Phil Hersh is a disgusting pig!!!!

Just want to give a shout out to the pig.
Alissa is extremely lucky. All of her jumps are questionable.
I hope the judges/tech specialist will be fair at National.
 

Pikachuusb

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 27, 2005
Im soooo hoping for a magical showing from Mirai & Alissa!!! Im not sure who I want to be third on the podium along with them. Maybe Caroline Zhang will still be working on her stuff and wow everyone for a bronze medal :)
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I try not to count people out but I really think it's a safe bet to say Zhang won't be much of a factor at Nats. The fanboys can try to convince me otherwise but it won't work. She's going through a transitional phase in her skating now.

P.S. For those who saw that other post, yes it's gone. Instead, PM me if you want that link.
 
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silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Lol with all this talk of Alissa and Mirai as locks for 1 and 2 at nats, and Rachael and Caroline being non-factors, watch Rachael and Caroline waltz into nationals and end up 1 and 2! That would be funny and would teach Hersh to keep his mouth shut (Of course I would prefer if Christina placed 1 or 2 but I'm sure you know that already, but if Rachael and Caroline proved everyone wrong I would be very pleased at their determination)
 
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