Mens LP

I'd like to see both Kevin VanDerPerren and Tim Goebel in the Final, along with Jeff Buttle.

In order for that to happen, Joubert, Gao and Abt MUST finish lower than 2nd. Gao is a SP skater, so I think that's likely. Abt's FS was so bad at CoR a finish below 2nd is also likely. Joubert is the spoiler. If he finishes 2nd, Tim is out.

All will be well if Tim, Jeff and Takeshi finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in any order.

for Alexander Abt. I REALLY wanted him at GPF, and now he's got to win to go. Well, Klimkin pulled it off lats year *Laura crosses her fingers*

Wow, though. Way for Li and Dambier to come back! And place ahead of Mikey!

Doris, I wanted all lyrical, expressive skaters at GPF....Sasha, Evgeni, Kevin (PLEASE let him make it), Jeff, Brian Joubert, and Takeshi. Oh, well.

Laura

Abt did fine in the SP; his SP score at CR was within 4.5 of Honda's best (SC), and is higher than Honda's SA, Buttle's, or Joubert's. Looking at his detailed LP scores, his base was 20-25 points below most of the top skaters except Lambiel (~12 points below), because he was scored for 3T instead of 4T, and doubled the Lutz, Loop, and Salchow. If he can land the triples, including the 3A for which he also received negative scores in CR, just the base score alone would bring him into Honda's and Joubert's best ranges. He'd need to do better than that to surpass Buttle.

But it's very possible. There's more pressure on Honda at home, and Joubert's and Buttle's SP's this year have not been outstanding, at least scorewise. Joubert has a lot more to prove, and Buttle's trying to make his first GPF and to impress Skate Canada before Nationals. With Yagudin out, Abt doesn't have to impress his Federation or fight it out with Klimkin for the third spot, so the pressure's off a bit.

This was only Abt´s first competition this season, I think. His stamina at freeskate has unfortunately been a problem earlier also. Looking forward to that he will fare better in NHK. On the other hand as Cup of Russia and NHK are so close to each other as they are, there is not much a skater can do. Only maybe to have a better luck in jumping?

I think that NHK might turn out to be one of the most interesting of GP considering the skater placements; so many close choices for male skaters to land the podium.

Marjaana

I don't know Jaana-Joubert is cute and has nice posture and great execution on his 4T, but I find him boring otherwise. I would not call him lyrical. In fact, I find Tim, although not lyrical, less boring than Joubert. In his current COC program, I like his 3A, combo spin with the crossfoot spin, and his circular F/w. That's enough interest to keep me going.

dpp

NHK is going to be the major decider of the Men's event, since only Plushenko and Weiss are sure for the Final.

If Abt's stamina is a problem, two competitions back-to-back plus major jetlag won't help him at all.

I also agree that Joubert is a key player. Last season, he won gold at Skate America, then had a bad skate in Paris. This season, he won silver in his first event, and fumbled in Paris again. He had only two events last year, but he skated well enough in the Final to finish 3rd to Plushenko and Klimkin, ahead of Abt in 4th. If he wins silver, he gets 14 points, putting him ahead of Van Der Perren and Goebel.

The biggest upset would happen if Abt wins gold, Joubert silver, Honda bronze and Buttle 4th. Then the final would be Plushenko, Weiss, Abt, Honda, Buttle, Joubert. Van Der Perren and Goebel would be out.

Since Honda's out, things will get a little more interesting.

OK, so Honda is out.

So, we are talking 3 spots in GPF. Buttle no lower than 4th I can definitely see. Joubert 2nd is possible. Nothing else seems realstic at this point, especially assuming that Tim will be at full force at NHK. So, I would say Tim is almost certainly in the final!