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Thread: Mens LP

  1. #16
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Tim May Still make the GPF

    Tim may back into the Grand Prix final yet, just as Michelle did last year. Here's how. Tim has 12 gp points. First tie breaker is highest placing (1 for Tim) :

    These 3 competitors are already ahead of Tim and have finished
    all scoring events.

    Plush 24
    Weiss 17
    VanDerPerren 13

    Competitors at NHK for whom it is a counting event
    GP PTS NHK pts NHK
    Now To beat Tim Placing


    Buttle 9 5 4
    Honda 7 7 3
    Joubert 5 9 2
    Gao 5 9 2
    Abt 3 12 1
    Ferreira 3 12 1
    Savoie 0 12 1
    Chipre 0 12 1
    Li Y 0 12 1
    Tamura 0 12 1
    Nakaniwa 0 12 1

    For those who have 0 points, to knock out Tim, they must score a better total score than Tim did at COC in addition to winning the event. (2nd tie breaker).

    There are 3 open spots in the GPF. Van der Perren is not a lock; he can be outscored just as Tim can, but he fills the 6th spot ahead of Tim, so I have listed it this way. Savoie, of course, is an unknown factor, but he seems unlikely to win. And with the level of talent here, I do not expect Abt to win, given how he skated at COR. But it is possible, given that he earned good Program element scores. The rest of those needing a win to bump Tim will in all likelihood not place first.

    I do not see how Honda at home in Japan will score low enough to miss the final. Either 1, 2, or 3 will do to put Takeshi in the final, and I am sure he will do it. That leaves 2 GPF spots open.

    Based on Tim's COC performance, I don't think he will finish lower than fourth. That leaves 2 undetermined spots in the top 4 at NHK, both of whom have to come from the set (Abt, Savoie, Gao, Joubert, Buttle) to bump Tim. Looking at that set, it looks to me like it really boils down to Gao or Joubert finishing 2nd or better and Buttle finishing 4 or better to knock Tim out. Gao really tanked in the LP at COC which was his home event. I don't expect to see him in 2nd or 1st. So it probably boils down to whether Joubert can hold it together to finish 2nd or better. If Tim and Takeshi finish 1-2 or 2-1, Tim goes to the GPF, and so does Van Der Perren. And there are a number of other scenarios that work too.

    dpp
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 11-23-2003 at 04:30 AM.

  2. #17
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Doris - That was a fabulous analysis, and best of all, I could follow it.

    It would be nice to have Tim in the mix to give the competition of quad fest.

    I'm not clear about Li. Is he definitely out?

    Joe

  3. #18
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Unfortunately, Chenjiang Li is out of the GPF. He has less than 12 points total. The Li that is listed at NHK is Yungfei Li. And too bad, sez I. But a GPF with van der Perren and Buttle has its attractions too!

    Doris

  4. #19
    Lovin' the Kween ... Now and Forever
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    Doris ... I'm amazed that you figured all that out! Way to complicated for me.LOL

    I hope Timmy makes it (in as much as it's probably a given that Weiss won't skate clean!) Would be nice to have one American man do well!

  5. #20
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    nymkfan, Yes, I agree. It would be nice for both Tim and Mike to make it to Colorado Springs for GPF. I hope they do, and both skate well, although Mike's history may not be for clean programs.
    Too much 2 foot on 4 jumps in Mike's history.

    dpp

  6. #21
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    [QUOTE]Originally posted by DORISPULASKI
    Unfortunately, Chenjiang Li is out of the GPF. He has less than 12 points total. The Li that is listed at NHK is Yungfei Li. And too bad, sez I. But a GPF with van der Perren and Buttle has its attractions too!

    Doris
    [/QUOTE

    Yeah!!! A GPF with at least 2 lyrical male skaters (Buttle and van de Perren) may well signal it's time for a change, especially if Sasha Abt doesn't make it. Fingers crossed for Tim and the usual prayer for Michael.

  7. #22
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    I'd like to see both Kevin VanDerPerren and Tim Goebel in the Final, along with Jeff Buttle.

    In order for that to happen, Joubert, Gao and Abt MUST finish lower than 2nd. Gao is a SP skater, so I think that's likely. Abt's FS was so bad at CoR a finish below 2nd is also likely. Joubert is the spoiler. If he finishes 2nd, Tim is out.

    All will be well if Tim, Jeff and Takeshi finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in any order.

  8. #23
    ~ Evgeni's Sex Bomb ~
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    for Alexander Abt. I REALLY wanted him at GPF, and now he's got to win to go. Well, Klimkin pulled it off lats year *Laura crosses her fingers*

    Wow, though. Way for Li and Dambier to come back! And place ahead of Mikey!

    Doris, I wanted all lyrical, expressive skaters at GPF....Sasha, Evgeni, Kevin (PLEASE let him make it), Jeff, Brian Joubert, and Takeshi. Oh, well.

    Laura

  9. #24
    Go NJ Devils
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    Abt did fine in the SP; his SP score at CR was within 4.5 of Honda's best (SC), and is higher than Honda's SA, Buttle's, or Joubert's. Looking at his detailed LP scores, his base was 20-25 points below most of the top skaters except Lambiel (~12 points below), because he was scored for 3T instead of 4T, and doubled the Lutz, Loop, and Salchow. If he can land the triples, including the 3A for which he also received negative scores in CR, just the base score alone would bring him into Honda's and Joubert's best ranges. He'd need to do better than that to surpass Buttle.

    But it's very possible. There's more pressure on Honda at home, and Joubert's and Buttle's SP's this year have not been outstanding, at least scorewise. Joubert has a lot more to prove, and Buttle's trying to make his first GPF and to impress Skate Canada before Nationals. With Yagudin out, Abt doesn't have to impress his Federation or fight it out with Klimkin for the third spot, so the pressure's off a bit.

  10. #25
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    This was only Abt´s first competition this season, I think. His stamina at freeskate has unfortunately been a problem earlier also. Looking forward to that he will fare better in NHK. On the other hand as Cup of Russia and NHK are so close to each other as they are, there is not much a skater can do. Only maybe to have a better luck in jumping?

    I think that NHK might turn out to be one of the most interesting of GP considering the skater placements; so many close choices for male skaters to land the podium.

    Marjaana

  11. #26
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    I don't know Jaana-Joubert is cute and has nice posture and great execution on his 4T, but I find him boring otherwise. I would not call him lyrical. In fact, I find Tim, although not lyrical, less boring than Joubert. In his current COC program, I like his 3A, combo spin with the crossfoot spin, and his circular F/w. That's enough interest to keep me going.

    dpp

  12. #27
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    NHK is going to be the major decider of the Men's event, since only Plushenko and Weiss are sure for the Final.

    If Abt's stamina is a problem, two competitions back-to-back plus major jetlag won't help him at all.

    I also agree that Joubert is a key player. Last season, he won gold at Skate America, then had a bad skate in Paris. This season, he won silver in his first event, and fumbled in Paris again. He had only two events last year, but he skated well enough in the Final to finish 3rd to Plushenko and Klimkin, ahead of Abt in 4th. If he wins silver, he gets 14 points, putting him ahead of Van Der Perren and Goebel.

    The biggest upset would happen if Abt wins gold, Joubert silver, Honda bronze and Buttle 4th. Then the final would be Plushenko, Weiss, Abt, Honda, Buttle, Joubert. Van Der Perren and Goebel would be out.

  13. #28
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    Since Honda's out, things will get a little more interesting.

  14. #29
    Forum translator Ptichka's Avatar
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    OK, so Honda is out.

    So, we are talking 3 spots in GPF. Buttle no lower than 4th I can definitely see. Joubert 2nd is possible. Nothing else seems realstic at this point, especially assuming that Tim will be at full force at NHK. So, I would say Tim is almost certainly in the final!

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