What will the 2010/2011 Season bring us from the MEN

Nadine · Oct 28, 2010

I haven't kept up with this thread in the past few weeks, but an epiphany of sorts came to me this AM in regards to Noburani Oda. I'm thinking his getting married, having a baby, and becoming a man will make him stronger, just as it did Evgeni Plushenko. He's now the head of the household, the breadwinner, and hopefully that sense of responsibility will translate into much needed mental toughness, knowing he has a family to take care of now.

From here on in I now expect him to go for the quad every time out without fail, get it consistent, and eventually become #1 in Japan, and maybe even the world...

YRLEE · Oct 28, 2010

NMURA said:
Falling on what jump is not important. What matter is the judges consideration when there's not much difference. They would go with Machida undoubtedly, if they didn't find something "special" about Hanyu.

7 triple free program from a 13 year old boy is something "special".

Sorry for my double post, I'm not used to this board.

NMURA · Oct 28, 2010

FTnoona said:
I don't think that JSF is going to send Yuzuru to senior worlds this season because he isn't better than the top 3 Japanese men just yet. Junior worlds is where he is most likely to go hopefully to win another gold medal. Sorry for the long post.

I'm not the JSF of course, but if they have any strategic minds, they must send Hanyu to worlds. Needless to say, the ultimate goal is winning a medal (gold, if possible) at Sochi Olympics.

Takahashi is getting near 28. He should have difficulties to maintain current competitiveness and reputations. He has chronic underrotation problems (esp. 3-3s and quad) which could get worse.

Oda is getting near 27. He will never be a world level contender.

Kozuka is 25. He never masters the quad and his 3A is always hit or miss. He's mentally weak and lacking effective presentation and judge/audience appeals (= top level PCS).

The only realistic Olympic medal contender is Hanyu armed with quads and the federation backings. For that purpose, Hanyu needs to make an effective impression at Tokyo worlds and "earn" higher PCS. After that, he can be a serious contender in Nice, and win a medal in 2013 worlds. If he misses Tokyo worlds, Japan will lose chances to win an Olympic medal.

NMURA · Oct 28, 2010

Change of the JSF's policy?

I have some impressions that the JSF turned to more "potential"-oriented elitistic approaches. In the case of JGP assignments, they basically ignored the results of (Jr) Nationals and gave spots to skaters with better "potentials". Shoji was 10th place at Jr Nationals last year. Sei Kawahara was 21st place of men's side. The JSF must have appreciated Kawahara's potentials particularly. He started skating only after Torino Olympics, mastered 5 triples in 2 years, 3-3 and 3A in 4 years. If the JSF were "fair" as USFSA, they might not have a chance.

For domestic novice competitions, the new rule was introduced to encourage jumpers. Now the skaters have to do Lz, F, Lo as solo jumps or first jumps of combinations. It became practically impossible for skaters with only 3T and 3S to place above those who have more difficult contents.

In short, the JSF is ready to "favor" potentially talented jumpers. If my assessment is valid, these approaches could affect the seniors. At Nationals, they will weigh Kozuka's seniority and Hanyu's potentials carefully. I can say, Hanyu's chances are better than before.

Mathman · Oct 28, 2010

NMURA said:
...At Nationals, they will weigh Kozuka's seniority and Hanyu's potentials carefully. I can say, Hanyu's chances are better than before.

This is a very interesting discussion. I have to say that you are painting a rather cynical picture of the Japanese skating federation. Will they really judge the 2010-2011 national championships according to who they want to send to Sochi in three years, rather than by who gives the best performance?

Or am I naive for even thinking like that?

Sylvia · Oct 28, 2010

Japan Skating Federation's criteria re. who can be selected to compete at 2011 Worlds: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...-on-who-to-send-to-Worlds&p=515655#post515655

rocketry · Oct 28, 2010

NMURA said:
Japan Open ... What a joke?
See how Rippon scored at Skate Canada. His score will drop 10 points or more. It's quite useless to compare scores of different competitions.

I don't think Hanyu has much problem with 3Lz-3T as you protest. Since he admires Plushenko, Hanyu definitely tries 4-3 in the SP sooner or later. He seems more easy with 3A-3T than 3Lz-3T. The Lip isn't a factor to decide win or lose in men's figure skating anyway. I bet he invests more efforts on the 4S (which is already underway) and 4-3 rather than "correct edges". Which comes sooner, Hanyu's 4-3 or Kozuka's "+GOE" 4T?

Yes, it was an exhibition competition, but will his base value change? Given the newness of the program and popped axel, I would guess it increases.

But since you wish to compare the same competition, let's compare Amodio, who beat him for the podium. He did no quad, no 3a-3t, and no second half 3a and managed to beat Hanyu on TES. If Kozuka is smart, he will focus on doing what he does well and not worry about Hanyu's quad and will be close on TES and deserve to win on PCS if they go head to head.

I believe it's a potential issue because he has done very few and this is a standard every man in the top ten sets. Has a lip killed anyone? Probably not, but I bet plenty of people with quads would have loved to have theirs fixed when they lost to someone without a quad. I have no doubt in my mind he has the potential to develop the tricks necessary to cover up his weaknesses, but as they they stand they are areas that put him behind other men.

seniorita · Oct 28, 2010

1) I dont get why it has to be either Hanyu either Kozuka discussion, and their pros and cons are teared to pieces now, season just began and Kozuka hasnt even skated yet
2) This conversation reminds me of last year threads about Mao or Evan being dropped off their Olympic teams(mostly Mao), which was too much talking out of nowhere, I dont think someone seriously thought Mao would be dropped of the national team and Evan also.
3) Both skaters are extremely talented and different, moreover Hanyu just came from juniors,maybe after their nationals it will be more clear, but I dont think there is need to put down Takahiko to show how much of a good skater is Hanyu, they have scandalous potentials both.
I dont think Kozuka is a version of Chan by the way, I cant find many similarities except for gorgeous edges.
If someone wants to abandon Kozuka I will adopt him for our national team that we dont have yet

champs · Oct 28, 2010

seniorita said:
season just began and Kozuka hasnt even skated yet

He did already.

seniorita · Oct 28, 2010

I meant internationally in the GP where he will show both his sp and lp at the same time, like we have seen Hanyu but not Kozuka, not the Japan Open thing.

ImaginaryPogue · Oct 28, 2010

seniorita said:
1) I dont get why it has to be either Hanyu either Kozuka discussion, and their pros and cons are teared to pieces now, season just began and Kozuka hasnt even skated yet
2) This conversation reminds me of last year threads about Mao or Evan being dropped off their Olympic teams(mostly Mao), which was too much talking out of nowhere, I dont think someone seriously thought Mao would be dropped of the national team and Evan also.
3) Both skaters are extremely talented and different, moreover Hanyu just came from juniors,maybe after their nationals it will be more clear, but I dont think there is need to put down Takahiko to show how much of a good skater is Hanyu, they have scandalous potentials both.
I dont think Kozuka is a version of Chan by the way, I cant find many similarities except for gorgeous edges.
If someone wants to abandon Kozuka I will adopt him for our national team that we dont have yet

Can I get an AMEN!?!

NMURA · Oct 28, 2010

rocketry said:
But since you wish to compare the same competition, let's compare Amodio, who beat him for the podium. He did no quad, no 3a-3t, and no second half 3a and managed to beat Hanyu on TES. If Kozuka is smart, he will focus on doing what he does well and not worry about Hanyu's quad and will be close on TES and deserve to win on PCS if they go head to head.

Amodio's total TES is 0.4 point higher than Hanyu. So what's the big deal?

Hanyu has proved his potential to be the best jumper (male figure skater) since Plushenko. That's more important. I'm kind of afraind some international judges with "strategic minds" would push down Hanyu's scores intentionally, and make impressions that Kozuka is "better" than Hanyu. I hope the JSF and the National judges make strategic and independent decisions. The rival countries will welcome harmless Kozuka at Tokyo worlds more and more.

chloepoco · Oct 28, 2010

seniorita said:
1) I dont get why it has to be either Hanyu either Kozuka discussion, and their pros and cons are teared to pieces now, season just began and Kozuka hasnt even skated yet
2) This conversation reminds me of last year threads about Mao or Evan being dropped off their Olympic teams(mostly Mao), which was too much talking out of nowhere, I dont think someone seriously thought Mao would be dropped of the national team and Evan also.
3) Both skaters are extremely talented and different, moreover Hanyu just came from juniors,maybe after their nationals it will be more clear, but I dont think there is need to put down Takahiko to show how much of a good skater is Hanyu, they have scandalous potentials both.
I dont think Kozuka is a version of Chan by the way, I cant find many similarities except for gorgeous edges.
If someone wants to abandon Kozuka I will adopt him for our national team that we dont have yet

Thank you. I don't understand this "Kozuka hate" from Nmura.

silverlake22 · Oct 28, 2010

NMURA said:
Amodio's total TES is 0.4 point higher than Hanyu. So what's the big deal?

Hanyu has proved his potential to be the best jumper (male figure skater) since Plushenko. That's more important. I'm kind of afraind some international judges with "strategic minds" would push down Hanyu's scores intentionally, and make impressions that Kozuka is "better" than Hanyu. I hope the JSF and the National judges make strategic and independent decisions. The rival countries will welcome harmless Kozuka at Tokyo worlds more and more.

I know he was a trainwreck here but Denis Ten is also a wonderful jumper when he is "on", his 3lz-3t and 3a are textbook. He's also only about a year older than Hanyu and I think will be a force in the future.

treeloving · Oct 29, 2010

seniorita said:
1) I dont get why it has to be either Hanyu either Kozuka discussion, and their pros and cons are teared to pieces now, season just began and Kozuka hasnt even skated yet
2) This conversation reminds me of last year threads about Mao or Evan being dropped off their Olympic teams(mostly Mao), which was too much talking out of nowhere, I dont think someone seriously thought Mao would be dropped of the national team and Evan also.
3) Both skaters are extremely talented and different, moreover Hanyu just came from juniors,maybe after their nationals it will be more clear, but I dont think there is need to put down Takahiko to show how much of a good skater is Hanyu, they have scandalous potentials both.
I dont think Kozuka is a version of Chan by the way, I cant find many similarities except for gorgeous edges.
If someone wants to abandon Kozuka I will adopt him for our national team that we dont have yet

Thank you , thank you so much for this reasonable post!

Regarding to the discussion on the selection of skater to world, I'm Yuzuru fan and I want him to has a chance skate(and win!) at world and Olympic if possible, but only when he really out-skate other not because he is pushed by judge or federation.

While I found he was quite underscore in PSC at NHK, I still think if he and Kozuka skate their best Kozuka's PSC should be higher. I love Hanyu interpretation and i like his style of program(Thank a lot to his coach, Nanami Abe for choreographing this wonderful program) than that of Kozuka but Hanyu's other skills,in my opinion, is not as good as Kozuka. Hanyu also has his own problems that need to be fix and this is his first year at senior pushing him too much now may be cause more pain than gain.

I really think what JSF should do is not push or promote any particular skaters, but fight for them(and skater from other nation) to get a fair score(even this is subjective sport!) with out thinking about seniority , reputation or who rank higher in national team.

I know that I"m too naive but it would be great if skater receive score from how they skate not from reputation and federation. I will be very delight if my favorite skater win medal that way.

younggrass · Oct 29, 2010

Nadine said:
I haven't kept up with this thread in the past few weeks, but an epiphany of sorts came to me this AM in regards to Noburani Oda. I'm thinking his getting married, having a baby, and becoming a man will make him stronger, just as it did Evgeni Plushenko. He's now the head of the household, the breadwinner, and hopefully that sense of responsibility will translate into much needed mental toughness, knowing he has a family to take care of now.

From here on in I now expect him to go for the quad every time out without fail, get it consistent, and eventually become #1 in Japan, and maybe even the world...

I totally agree with you, Nadine.

Last year, Oda looked very young and sort of childish as if he pretended to be innocent for everything he'd done during 2007-08.
But now he looks matured and to pursue his career with strong resolve.
I'm not sure if he becomes No.1 of the world, however, he surely is much stronger than
he used to be.

NMURA · Oct 29, 2010

treeloving said:
I really think what JSF should do is not push or promote any particular skaters, but fight for them(and skater from other nation) to get a fair score(even this is subjective sport!) with out thinking about seniority , reputation or who rank higher in national team.

I know that I"m too naive but it would be great if skater receive score from how they skate not from reputation and federation. I will be very delight if my favorite skater win medal that way.

My premise is that Hanyu can beat Kozuka by more than a good chance if the National judges are "fair". However Kozuka is always in the position to be "favored" by the federation politics and special considerations. His sponsor is Toyota and coach (Nobuo Sato) is one of the most influential man in Japanese skating community. Especially in this year, Asada is in very precarious situations by her own fault. If she couldn't pick up her forms by Nationals to some degree, they may need to consider putting her off the worlds team. In that case, I predict they will do whatever it takes to give a berth to Kozuka, as returning favors to Sato Sensei for holding the bag (= Asada).

seniorita · Oct 29, 2010

It is a bit ridiculous to claim that politics hold Kozuka or he gets any favors, he has been the #3 skater the last two seasons, I just dont like to read about Kozuka things that dont reflect reality, I ve seen him two times live and I didnt want him to end skating, I think he has extremely potential and he is shadowed oftenly, he is not a mediocre skater that is held up for other reasons and he has been pretty much stable in his results, he maybe can be beaten by Hanyu at some point but that doesnt mean anything, lets beat him 5-10 times and then we can make a conclusion, for now this is invalid speculation, anyone can be beaten by Hanyu maybe in the future.
And the conversation has started as far as I remember by Oda and Kozuka and how their seasons turned out, why all the bashing for Kozuka now?
What about the other two japanese men, the one who won Nebelhorn and the Nhk one? (sorry i cant remember names now) They have also great jumps
Kozuka and Hanyu, they helped a lot to carry to the next season my excitement in fs men now my 2 favs retire, along with Fernandez and I have grown a lately fandom since last season for Schultheiss :biggrin:

(if i ever learn to spell him correctly)

ImaginaryPogue said:
Can I get an AMEN!?!

What does it mean this phrase?

ImaginaryPogue · Oct 29, 2010

It means I agree emphatically and everyone should shout "Amen" in enthusiastic agreement (from the "crowd").

I don't see Kozuka as favoured, I don't know why the race is between Kozuka and Hanyu as opposed to everyone not named Takahashi (after all, Kozuka has quite a good record against Oda internationally - Worlds 09), I don't know if Takahashi is staying until Sochi (which renders this whole thing a moot point, unless NMURA feels there are two skaters below the top three that could be Kozuka), and Kozuka himself is awesome. NMURA's contention that the other countries are hoping that the Japanese Federation pushes down Hanyu for Kozuka strikes me as specious and mean-spirited.

museksk8r · Oct 29, 2010

seniorita said:
What does it mean this phrase?

It's like saying he/she agrees with you or you preach the truth.

(I also find myself agreeing with and liking many things that you say. You seem very fair in your posts.) :agree:

What will the 2010/2011 Season bring us from the MEN

Nadine

YRLEE

NMURA

NMURA

Mathman

Sylvia

rocketry

seniorita

champs

seniorita

ImaginaryPogue

NMURA

chloepoco

silverlake22

treeloving

younggrass

NMURA

seniorita

ImaginaryPogue

museksk8r

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