Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 51

Thread: Predictions

  1. #31
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Staring at the ocean and smiling.
    Posts
    14,273
    Skate Canada often seems to have a weak field. Why I cannot tell you. Perhaps a combination of the relative unenthusiasm of invited teams to go there if they had any other option (like Paris ) and the desire of Skate Canada to only invite skaters who won't outscore the Canadians scheduled to be there. The lack of a decent field, the huge support that Canadian crowds give their Canadian skaters, and the desire of those skaters to do well in front of the home crowd has resulted in some Canadians having made some stunning senior debuts at Skate Canada.

    fairly's tongue may be in his cheek, but he is predicting from past experience.

  2. #32
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    344
    I'm a little new, so please excuse the ignorance....but isn't it each federation that decides what skaters to send? And wouldn't the coaches have something to say about it? For example, it seems to me that the top ranked teams normally don't all compete together until the GPF. They all want to make the GPF so maybe federations/coaches choose assignments accordingly for their best skaters? And maybe part of the decision making is about where the 2 assignments are located? I wouldn't think a skater would want to live and train in Europe, go to Asia 1 week, and 2 weeks later go to Canada. That would be some pretty awful jet lag. And of course Canadian skaters would want to do well at home! With 3 teams in dance at Skate Canada vs 1 at NHK, for example, the odds are also much higher. And if you normally let your best skaters compete at home....well, the results aren't surprising when some of the best skaters in Canada, and skating at home, are Olympic champions.

    And about the Canadian crowds......my experience is that many international skaters like competing in Canada because the Canadian skating fans are generally knowledgeable, welcome all warmly, and come out in good numbers. Of course they will cheer loudly for the home team, but they also cheer on everyone else as well.

  3. #33
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    321
    [QUOTE=NorthernDancers;522957]I'm a little new, so please excuse the ignorance....but isn't it each federation that decides what skaters to send? And wouldn't the coaches have something to say about it? For example, it seems to me that the top ranked teams normally don't all compete together until the GPF. They all want to make the GPF so maybe federations/coaches choose assignments accordingly for their best skaters? And maybe part of the decision making is about where the 2 assignments are located? QUOTE]

    I don't know the details, but I think the rule is that the top 3 teams can't meet until the final. So in the 6 GP events, there should be 1 team/skater that is ranked in the top 3 from worlds. The same applies, I think, for teams ranked 4-6. Of course, skaters retire or get injured. This weakens some fields.

    And the federations can't just choose any athletes. There are rules about seasons best scores, and certain athletes are guaranteed one or two events. After the guaranteed spots are filled, then federations can invite skaters (possibly off the list of top 75 seasons best score? any clarification here would be appreciated) Federations automatically get 3 spots in a competition hosted in their country, and that's the time they can choose any skater they want -- ex. Sarah Arnold and Justin Trojek) at Skate Canada. I don't think a federation would want all their top skaters competiting against each other, because one could knock another out of contention for the GP final. But, obviously you're right about the numbers game. The more skaters from a country competing, the better the chance of winning a medal.

    Does someone know about coaches, and if they get a say? I noticed that D/W and the Shibs compete together in both their GPs and was wondering if that was done partially so coaches don't have to travel to every event.

  4. #34
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    5,609
    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    Skate Canada often seems to have a weak field. Why I cannot tell you. Perhaps a combination of the relative unenthusiasm of invited teams to go there if they had any other option (like Paris ) and the desire of Skate Canada to only invite skaters who won't outscore the Canadians scheduled to be there. The lack of a decent field, the huge support that Canadian crowds give their Canadian skaters, and the desire of those skaters to do well in front of the home crowd has resulted in some Canadians having made some stunning senior debuts at Skate Canada.

    fairly's tongue may be in his cheek, but he is predicting from past experience.
    Given fairly's past comments, I doubt it, to be honest.

    But more than that. Is it Dube/Davison's fault their chief competition (Kawaguchi/Smirnov) withdrew with injury? The ladies field is weak across the board, but that's because two of the three world medalists aren't participating, nor is the Olympic bronze medalist, and the rest of the field isn't known for consistency - again, not Skate Canada's fault. The men's field has three 4CC champions (Oda, Rippon and Chan). Is it really weaker than NHK's field? Dance - this is weak, but again, is that SC's fault? They took one of the 4-6 teams (and keep in mind that with the retirement of the Zaretskis', there are only two) and have been hit hard with withdraws.

    fairly's comment seems out of proportion and is very dismissive of the skaters, imo.

  5. #35
    "Hold an edge and look sexy!" museksk8r's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Storybrooke, Maine
    Posts
    3,674
    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    The level of disrespect thrown at the skaters in this post is really quite startling.
    Any event that is not won by Caroline Zhang is rigged in fairly4's opinion, so in other words, every event is rigged. Absurdist comedy at its best.

  6. #36
    nefertiti..reincarnate
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Tokyo
    Posts
    865
    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    ...and the desire of Skate Canada to only invite skaters who won't outscore the Canadians scheduled to be there. ...
    I've once lived in Canada but never felt such enthusiastic nationalism, anglophone or francophone ... to me, especially the anglophones seemed to position themselves as North Americans in a cosmopolitan way.
    Are Quebecois the power in Skate Canada?

    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    ...fairly's tongue may be in his cheek, but he is predicting from past experience.
    I always thought fairly4 was she ...?

  7. #37
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    3,528
    His free skate score at the japan open was extremely close to the olympic gold and sivler medalist. He can totally win this HUGE! Even with Chan and Oda. Maybe Rippon was only so great and good at the Japan open because there was no short program but what if he is just as good in the short at skate canada than he was at the japan open in the free skate?! It should be SOMETHING ELSE!!!

  8. #38
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    851
    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    His free skate score at the japan open was extremely close to the olympic gold and sivler medalist. He can totally win this HUGE! Even with Chan and Oda. Maybe Rippon was only so great and good at the Japan open because there was no short program but what if he is just as good in the short at skate canada than he was at the japan open in the free skate?! It should be SOMETHING ELSE!!!
    Remember this is Skate CHANADA. Any rivals of their favorite won't get generous scores.

  9. #39
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    392
    I think this is a real chance for one of the second-tier ladies (Phaneuf, Makarova) to announce themselves as a real world contender.

    But I also have a sneaking suspicion Alicia will take this one, igniting once again a brief glimmer of hope that this will be her year.

  10. #40
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    3,528
    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    Remember this is Skate CHANADA. Any rivals of their favorite won't get generous scores.
    LOL it took two reads for me to see that you put an H in Canada! CHANada is hilarious and probably true. At the Japan open Rippon got 82 PCS at NHK trophy Takahashi got 83. I am sure against Chan and how GP competitions skew toward the home skaters it is possible that Rippon would go down like 10 points possibly.

  11. #41
    nefertiti..reincarnate
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Tokyo
    Posts
    865
    Quote Originally Posted by berrycute View Post
    .... But I also have a sneaking suspicion Alicia will take this one....
    You mean Alissa? How are her jumps this season? That's only where she lacks consitency. She skates beautifully otherwise.

    Phaneuf doesn't have outstanding music this year. I think Marchei will outskate Phaneuf.
    And Meier hasn't shined to her maximum for quite a long time, so the judges probably won't give her generous marks because of presumption, even if she skates clean.

    Czisny, Marchei, Phaneuf .... in any order, but hopefully this way.

    Men: Rippon, Oda, Chan .... in any order, but hopefully this way. Oda will surely go for a quad in the free.

  12. #42
    On cloud nine and refusing to come down!
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    323
    Forgot to do predictions for NHK but anyway:

    Dance
    1. C/P
    2. K/K
    3. C/Z (possibly P/I)

    Pairs
    1. I/M
    2. D/R
    3. D/W

    Men
    1. Chan
    2. Oda
    3. Rippon

    Ladies
    1. Phaneuf
    2. Zawadzki
    3. Czisny

  13. #43
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    392
    Quote Originally Posted by sorcerer View Post
    You mean Alissa? How are her jumps this season? That's only where she lacks consitency. She skates beautifully otherwise.

    Phaneuf doesn't have outstanding music this year. I think Marchei will outskate Phaneuf.
    And Meier hasn't shined to her maximum for quite a long time, so the judges probably won't give her generous marks because of presumption, even if she skates clean.

    Czisny, Marchei, Phaneuf .... in any order, but hopefully this way.

    Men: Rippon, Oda, Chan .... in any order, but hopefully this way. Oda will surely go for a quad in the free.
    Yes sorry, I meant Alissa, dumb mistake on my part.

    I haven't seen any vids of her training or run throughs, so who knows? The coaching change may help, Yuka was a solid jumper so perhaps she can pass that on to Alissa, but who knows...I am totally psyched to see her programs though, she has some beautiful music lined up (Korngold's violin romance is a favourite!)

    I think Phaneuf already had a minor breakthrough at the 2010 worlds, she finished much higher than I was expecting, she could have even taken the bronze. I strongly suspect she'll take this one if Alissa can't pull it together. She'll probably also make the final. She's not a particular favourite of mine, and she seems to go for the same 80s drag-queen hair and makeup style Joannie favoured (totally worth a deduction in the program components score IMO!!), but she's getting better as a competitor, I think.

    Marchei??? That would be a BIG upset to me. She's fun to watch (sassiest lady skater I've seen in a while), but her jumps are small and unreliable. Where did she finnish at Euros last year, 8th or something? And Euros 2010 had a field probably weaker than this one (I exaggerate, but only slightly...)

  14. #44
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    472
    Quote Originally Posted by berrycute View Post
    Marchei??? That would be a BIG upset to me. She's fun to watch (sassiest lady skater I've seen in a while), but her jumps are small and unreliable. Where did she finnish at Euros last year, 8th or something? And Euros 2010 had a field probably weaker than this one (I exaggerate, but only slightly...)
    I hope she will get on the podium. And for last year Euros, I wouldn't judge her upon this competition: she didn't compete in 2008/2009 season due to injury, then last autumn she did only minor competition, won national and Euros was her first major competition in a while and she had also the pressure of looking for the Italy's Olympic spot (not sure they'd ever given her, but fans and journalists were discussing a lot about this). This year she has already competed twice, and so I think she has also chance at SC, I find the ladies much unpredictable!

  15. #45
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    New York City
    Posts
    289
    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    His free skate score at the japan open was extremely close to the olympic gold and sivler medalist. He can totally win this HUGE! Even with Chan and Oda. Maybe Rippon was only so great and good at the Japan open because there was no short program but what if he is just as good in the short at skate canada than he was at the japan open in the free skate?! It should be SOMETHING ELSE!!!
    I mostly agree with your assessment. Adam’s scores at JO were HUGE---just like Evan Lysacek’s. It remains to be seen if the scores can be repeated at SC. Still, if Takahashi’s NHK FS scores are any indicator, the JO scores don’t seem to be overly inflated…and even though Patrick Chan is fully capable of posting phenomenal scores, it’s just the start of the season + he has consistency problems…hence, a good likelihood he may not skate clean. Strategically, I think Adam should aim for gold at SC because it’s an easier assignment than SA, where he will again face Takahashi, who seems to be the one to beat this season.
    Last edited by Figure88; 10-27-2010 at 09:07 PM.

Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •