If they keep the trend and call Adelina's flutz every time she does it, she will have to settle for Silver or Bronze if non-triple-axel is clean.
Non-triple-axel is quite inconsistent, scoring in the low 100 to 110, so anything goes for her.
Risa can put up big enough number to medal. Same goes for Gao, although I put her odd a bit higher.
Polina is a non factor at this point. She's battling Yasmin for #5 place.
The other two girls are the junior version of Ashley Wagner and the Russian girl I can't remember her name at the last year GPF. There, but didn't deserve to be there.
Anna Ovcharova or Ksenia Makarova? Ovcharova totally deserved to be there she made the event exciting!
Originally Posted by FlattFan
The way I see it, Adelina and Liza battle for gold, whoever doesn't win will likely finish 2nd. Christina, Risa, and Yasmin duke it out for bronze, and likely Christina will win that battle and the other two will be 4th and 5th, in whatever order. Shelepen will likely finish 6th though potentially could finish as high as 4th if Risa and Yasmin have issues and she does not. Then Kiri probably 7th and Kristiene 8th.
Since it's GPF and not JGPF, I'd say Alena Leonova.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
Anyway, good luck to all the competitors! It'll probably be Adelina and Liza for 1-2, but I'll be rooting for Christina Gao.
Last edited by LeCygne; 10-15-2010 at 06:35 PM.
^ yes, Alena.
As far as I'm concerned, only two girls from Russia are borderline impressive. Both of them have all kind of issues, one has edge call, the other is quite inconsistent. The American girls are almost as good. I really don't see Russia dominating the ladies event in 2014.
The chance of clean skates from non-triple-axel-girl and Adelina is nil. So possibly one will not even medal. I think one of them will take the gold, the other will bomb under pressure. Gao will take silver. Risa is the likely candidate for the bronze.
Here's my final prediction:
Russia had the two definite stand outs and highlights of the season, with Liza and Adelina dominating the field even when they didnt skate up to her full potential. But overall the American girls did better, with pretty solid results all around (except Davis) and getting half of the spots for the Final, while all the other russian girls (except Shelepen) had major bombs.
Future is bright for both nations but theres still tons of work to do with these girls.. Sochi may be still too early for any of them.
Tough field, there are too many good girls, I want Adelina, Liza, Christina, Risa, and Yasmin to all medal, but that is not possible. Adelina is a star and has been skating really well this season, if she keeps the mistakes to a minimum, she should have get the gold. Christina is pretty consistent and has been skating well this season, should get silver. I predict Shelepen buckles down and manages to medal here, she seems very determined, so boring and messy though she may be, she brings her 3-3s and gets bronze. Yasmin is really good but sometimes has issues with her jumps, a couple of mistakes will keep her off the podium here. Liza gets nervous and bombs the SP and only ends up 5th in this deep field despite a solid FS. Risa gets dinged for URs and her flutz, in this deep field that results in a pretty low standing. Kiri and Kristiene will skate pretty well but not get great marks. Adelina can probably win by a big margin (170+), but I suspect the scores will be very bunched in places 2-6 (150s-160s), and then 7 and 8 will be lower (130s).
My guess is Adelina and Liza will go 1-2, with Gao likely for bronze, but Shoji and Shelepen putting on a big fight for it.
I know Adelina and Elizaveta will be both very nervous cause it's their first grand prix final,plus Adelina can have a weak lp like here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWDOO...layer_embedded ,which means Christina will take gold and second or third will be for Adelina or Risa.
I found two tendencies of past 10 season....
Except 2008, the #1 JGP standing ladies won. There was no "favorite" in 2008.
Except 2007, at least one Japanese is on the podium. That is the only year no Japanese was in the top 3 of JGP standings.
I say, Sotnikova wins, and Shoji on the podium. China and Korea are semi-homes for Japanese skaters and they usually have good results.
Sotnikova recently did a Russian Cup event and won the senior events easily. Her jump content: 3Lz+3Lo, 3Lz, 2A+3T+2Lo, 3F, 3Lo, 3S+2T with arms over her head, 2A. I really do think it's hers for the taking if she skates clean (always a big if). However, she has been quite consistent this year so far - all her free skates have been quite close to being clean.
I don't think her fluz call will hinder her much as others, such as Gao, have the same problem, and Adelina scores higher in the spins, steps and PCS.
Of course, Tuktamysheva is the other favorite.
Last edited by oleada; 11-16-2010 at 07:17 AM.
That was a great,but it was just an event without any pressures on her to win,and there wasn't really much of a competition either.
Originally Posted by oleada
Who says she will skate like that at the finals ?
I'm surprised most people think she will get gold easily.
I think people are saying that if she skates clean, its hers for the taking. Certainly that's what the judges' scores have said so far. Obviously, everyone makes mistakes, ice is slippery, etc. You can't deny she is the favorite.
I mean, we're nearly on GP Event #5 and no one has beaten her score from Austria yet.
That's true. Sigh, that really shows how lackluster this year's senior GP field has been. I am much more excited about the JGPF this year.
Originally Posted by oleada