Results 1 to 15 of 20

Thread: Men's Prospects

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan MissIzzy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Posts
    764

    Men's Prospects

    Third year in a row I'm doing this, to my mild surprise, and I wouldn't rely on my ability to prognosticate as much; I haven't been following as closely. But still, to start the general speculation. I've watched as 23 men have competed in the first two events, and nobody major has been knocked out yet, but so far the eight men with substantial points are(Okay, it's not impossible for fifth-placers to qualify by winning their other event, but it's unlikely):

    NHK Trophy Top Four:

    1. Daisuke Takahash-Need only medal at Skate America to seal it, where he'll probably win if he skates well, though if he makes mistakes Oda and/or Rippon could challenge him. But even then he's got bronze, unless he melts down. Barring disaster, he's in. He might even survive disaster.

    2. Jeremy Abbott-Mathematically needs to win Rostelecom Cup, where he's up against Patrick Chan, Tomas Verner, and also Samuel Contesti, so he needs to skate well. Chan might be pretty hard to beat, but two silvers would probably get him in. Verner, of course, is unpredictable, as is Jeremy himself, so it might be silver or it might be bronze, and then as the chips fall. Contesti stands there as a potential reminder not to make very many mistakes.

    3. Florent Amodio-Needs to win Trophée Eric Bombard to seal it, where he faces off against his own countryman, though of course Brian Joubert doesn't necessarily do so well at his native Grand Prix event. If he does, however, Amodio is left defending a needed silver against Takahiko Kozuka, not easy, and also Kevin Reynolds, Micheal Brezina, or even Sergei Voronov or Brandon Mroz, though he should beat the last two if he skates clean. It's a good thing the event's on home ice; that could make the difference. Or it could not.

    4. Yuzuru Hanyu-To have a proper chance he'd need to win Rostelecom Cup, where I don't think he can beat Chan unless the latter has serious problems, and silver and the hope of things falling a very certain way isn't too likely either with Verner, Abbott, and Contesti hanging around; odds are at least one of them will skate well.

    Skate Canada Top Four:

    1. Patrick Chan-Need only medal at Rostelecom Cup, which he should if he skates at all decently; he'll be favorite to win, and even a troubled skate would probably only open the door for Abbott and Verner(and that assumes they skate well).

    2. Nobunari Oda-Mathematically needs to win Skate America, not easy against Takahashi. Silver there would give him a good chance; he may once again face off against Rippon for it, this time on the latter's home ice, and there wasn't much difference in their scores either. But there's noone else there he won't stay ahead of if he skates well, so if he does that it's bronze at worst, and then as the chips fall.

    3. Adam Rippon-Needs to beat one of the two Japanese guys at Skate America, and if he doesn't skate well he's not even safe against his two countrymen; on the other hand, it's not at all impossible for him to slip past Oda.

    4. Kevin Reynolds-Needs to win Trophée Eric Bombard, which won't happen unless Joubert has another bad weekend in Bercy. Amodio might need to have problems too, which makes even silver hard, and that leaves out Brezina, Voronov, and Mroz, none of whom he's at all safe against.

    Out of the race, but might remove points elsewhere:

    Michal Brezina: Withdrew from his first event, but might be a factor on the Trophée Eric Bombard podium(or just win bronze there)

    Contenders yet to skate:

    Brian Joubert
    Tomas Verner
    Takahiko Kozuka
    Samuel Contesti

  2. #2
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    562
    Sorry to ask but can you tell me how the placement works? Gold = 15 but what is silver bronze fourth so on? Much appreciated :D

  3. #3
    ^supposed to look like a blade! C_T_T_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    NI
    Posts
    148
    Silver= 13
    Bronze= 11
    4th=9
    5th=7
    after that they can't really qualify so it doesn't matter much.

  4. #4
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    4,831
    Chan and Takahashi are locks. I see Oda and Abbott having little problems making it. Joubert will make it unless he gets off to a really slow start like he sometimes does. The other spot could go to almost anyone, Rippon will probably end up with 2 3rd place finishes which probably wont be enough.

  5. #5
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    1,044
    daisuke takashi
    nobunari oda
    adam rippon
    brandon mroz-possible spoilers brian joubert
    floret amiodo
    jeremy abbott
    takahiko kozuka
    patrick chan
    Last edited by fairly4; 11-10-2010 at 12:31 PM.

  6. #6
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    5,609
    Wait - you're predicting Chan to do worse than 4th at CoR?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •