Men's Prospects | Golden Skate

Men's Prospects

MissIzzy

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 26, 2006
Third year in a row I'm doing this, to my mild surprise, and I wouldn't rely on my ability to prognosticate as much; I haven't been following as closely. But still, to start the general speculation. I've watched as 23 men have competed in the first two events, and nobody major has been knocked out yet, but so far the eight men with substantial points are(Okay, it's not impossible for fifth-placers to qualify by winning their other event, but it's unlikely):

NHK Trophy Top Four:

1. Daisuke Takahash-Need only medal at Skate America to seal it, where he'll probably win if he skates well, though if he makes mistakes Oda and/or Rippon could challenge him. But even then he's got bronze, unless he melts down. Barring disaster, he's in. He might even survive disaster.

2. Jeremy Abbott-Mathematically needs to win Rostelecom Cup, where he's up against Patrick Chan, Tomas Verner, and also Samuel Contesti, so he needs to skate well. Chan might be pretty hard to beat, but two silvers would probably get him in. Verner, of course, is unpredictable, as is Jeremy himself, so it might be silver or it might be bronze, and then as the chips fall. Contesti stands there as a potential reminder not to make very many mistakes.

3. Florent Amodio-Needs to win Trophée Eric Bombard to seal it, where he faces off against his own countryman, though of course Brian Joubert doesn't necessarily do so well at his native Grand Prix event. If he does, however, Amodio is left defending a needed silver against Takahiko Kozuka, not easy, and also Kevin Reynolds, Micheal Brezina, or even Sergei Voronov or Brandon Mroz, though he should beat the last two if he skates clean. It's a good thing the event's on home ice; that could make the difference. Or it could not.

4. Yuzuru Hanyu-To have a proper chance he'd need to win Rostelecom Cup, where I don't think he can beat Chan unless the latter has serious problems, and silver and the hope of things falling a very certain way isn't too likely either with Verner, Abbott, and Contesti hanging around; odds are at least one of them will skate well.

Skate Canada Top Four:

1. Patrick Chan-Need only medal at Rostelecom Cup, which he should if he skates at all decently; he'll be favorite to win, and even a troubled skate would probably only open the door for Abbott and Verner(and that assumes they skate well).

2. Nobunari Oda-Mathematically needs to win Skate America, not easy against Takahashi. Silver there would give him a good chance; he may once again face off against Rippon for it, this time on the latter's home ice, and there wasn't much difference in their scores either. But there's noone else there he won't stay ahead of if he skates well, so if he does that it's bronze at worst, and then as the chips fall.

3. Adam Rippon-Needs to beat one of the two Japanese guys at Skate America, and if he doesn't skate well he's not even safe against his two countrymen; on the other hand, it's not at all impossible for him to slip past Oda.

4. Kevin Reynolds-Needs to win Trophée Eric Bombard, which won't happen unless Joubert has another bad weekend in Bercy. Amodio might need to have problems too, which makes even silver hard, and that leaves out Brezina, Voronov, and Mroz, none of whom he's at all safe against.

Out of the race, but might remove points elsewhere:

Michal Brezina: Withdrew from his first event, but might be a factor on the Trophée Eric Bombard podium(or just win bronze there)

Contenders yet to skate:

Brian Joubert
Tomas Verner
Takahiko Kozuka
Samuel Contesti
 

FTnoona

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 26, 2009
Sorry to ask but can you tell me how the placement works? Gold = 15 but what is silver bronze fourth so on? Much appreciated :D
 

C_T_T_

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 25, 2007
Silver= 13
Bronze= 11
4th=9
5th=7
after that they can't really qualify so it doesn't matter much.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Chan and Takahashi are locks. I see Oda and Abbott having little problems making it. Joubert will make it unless he gets off to a really slow start like he sometimes does. The other spot could go to almost anyone, Rippon will probably end up with 2 3rd place finishes which probably wont be enough.
 

fairly4

Medalist
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
daisuke takashi
nobunari oda
adam rippon
brandon mroz-possible spoilers brian joubert
floret amiodo
jeremy abbott
takahiko kozuka
patrick chan
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Right now it's
Takahashi - 30 (Lock)
Oda - 26 (Likely lock)
Adam Rippon - 20

With two comps left...we got
Chan -15 (COR)
Kozuka - 15 (TEB)
Abbott -13 (COR)
Mroz - 13 (TEB)
Verner -11 (COR)
Florent -11 (TEB)
Joubert - 9 (TEB)
Reynolds - 9 (TEB)
Hanzyu - 9 (COR)

So Adam is unlikely to make the final unless five of the top six guys remaining melt down (unlikely). Chan and Kozuka are safe with at least a fourth place finish. Abbott and Mroz will be solid on as long as he's on the podium. Verner and Florent will need at least a silver. The nine pointers could be a lock by winning and maybe getting by with a silver.

So my predicted GPF roster

Takihashi - 30
Kozuka - 30 (wins TEB)
Chan - 30 (wins COR)
Abbott - 26 (second COR)
Oda - 26
Florent -24 (second in TEB)

Possible spoilers: Mroz (at least a silver in TEB); Verner (if he gets Silver in COR); Joubert (winning TEB)
 
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Morning Glory

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 16, 2008
Daisuke Takahashi 30 (15+15)
Nobunari Oda 26 (13+13)


Chan 30 (15+15 wins CoR)
Takahiko 28 (15+13 second in TEB)
Jeremy 26 (13+13 second in CoR)
Brian 24 (9+15 wins TEB)
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
here's what we got so far

Takahahi - 30
Chan - 28
Oda - 26
Verner - 26
Abbott - 24

Kozuka will be in easily with a bronze or higher. 4th may get him in with a tie break
Mroz will get in with at least a silver. Bronze will get him into a tiebreaker situation with Abbott
Florent could get in if he wins. He might get in with a silver if he wins tie breakers with Abbott.
Joubert could get in with a win as he would beat a tie break with Abbott.
Reynolds will have to win, which I think is unlikely.

I think Kozuka will get there easily by winning. And I think that Florent will have a good competition and win silver. However, he would have to break a tiebreaker and for fun I'll say he won't. I say that Abbott may be able to hold on.

So my list
Takahashi
Kozuka
Chan
Verner
Oda
Abbott.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Three locks at this point: Verner, Takahashi and Chan. Oda very likely (the only way he loses is a Amodio-Mroz-Kozuka podium with Mroz scoring 245.82 or greater. I'll let you decide the odds of that). Kozuka needs a medal to be assured a spot. Fourth place means it's likely provided but podium manipulation can push him out. Realistically, only one spot is up for grabs and I think it's between Abbott and Amodio, with Mroz as a potential spoiler (Joubert needs to win, otherwise he's out).
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Men's lineup:

So it looks like the men are:

Takahiko Kozuka, JPN (30 + 481.58)
Daisuke Takahasi, JPN (30 + 461.86)
Patrick Chan, CAN (28)
Thomas Verner (26 +1st at Skate America)
Nobunari Oda, JPN (26 + 2nd at SC and SA)
Florent Amodio, FRA (24+ 443.15)

Alternates
Jeremy Abbott, USA (24+ 435.40)
Brandon Mroz, USA (24 + 431.11)
Adam Rippon, USA (20)
 

volk

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 24, 2007
Men's lineup:

So it looks like the men are:

Takahiko Kozuka, JPN (30 + 481.58)
Daisuke Takahasi, JPN (30 + 461.86)

Patrick Chan, CAN (28)
Thomas Verner (26 +1st at Skate America)
Nobunari Oda, JPN (26 + 2nd at SC and SA)
Florent Amodio, FRA (24+ 443.15)

Alternates
Jeremy Abbott, USA (24+ 435.40)
Brandon Mroz, USA (24 + 431.11)
Adam Rippon, USA (20)

I'm glad so many of my favorites made it
 

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
It kinda sucks that there's no American guy, but at least they're the top three alternates - not that I hope any man gets injured. US Nationals is going to be interesting this year, with those guys so close, although when Abbott rises to the occasion, no one can touch him. Annnnd if Evan is back, things will be even more interesting.
 

Bluebonnet

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
... Annnnd if Evan is back, things will be even more interesting.

It's absolutely unwise for Evan to come back, especially after the rules change this year. The rules are not in his favor. I don't think he will, neither will Johnny. All those talks of coming back were just efforts of making people not to forget about them too soon. That's how I see it.

Yeah, I agree that it's disappointing that no American man in the GPF. Especially no Jeremy in the GPF. We get less time to see his beautiful SP and LP. But I'm happy that I could see Kozuka, Takahashi, Oda, and Chan. To me, at least, the memory of Chan's falls turned out to be short lived compared with the memory of his beautiful 4-3. I'm looking forward to seeing him skating again. And I like his this year's LP costume better. Against all odds, maybe, I like Chan's LP POTO music. The placement might be ridiculous. Who cares the placement? Hey, thinking positively, the rules might change again next year.:)
 
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Joined
Jul 11, 2003
IMO, the Americans did not deserve a spot in the Finals. Abbott did not skate well, Rippon is just about as good as he will ever be, and Brandon and Miner are yet to belong with the Top Men. Just keeping an eye on Armin during Nats. He seems to skate cautiously like Kozuka. It may be good for medals in future.
 

Ravensque

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 31, 2009
One of many things I like about Chan is that he doesn't hold back. He delivers his whole program from start to finish with gusto even with falls. There's nothing tentative about his skating, he skates with total abandon and such speed and edges. Eventually he will land those jumps, but it may not be a the GPF. I do hope he does a bit better in the jump department there though. I'm rooting for him.
 
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