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Thread: Ladies prospects

  1. #1
    Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan MissIzzy's Avatar
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    Ladies prospects

    This is one speculation thread that needs to get started: two events 23 skates competed so far, one shock elimination, and a couple of surprise medalists. The eight skaters who have been in a top four so far:

    NHK Trophy Top Four:

    1. Carolina Kostner-Need only medal at Skate America, where I'm not sure anyone can beat her unless she skates quite badly. Rachael Flatt couldn't in Japan, Elene Gedevanishvili would actually have to skate clean, Murakami might not be in position yet either, and Caroline Zhang's not scoring high lately either.

    2. Rachael Flatt-Needs to win Skate America to seal it, where I'm not sure the judges are willing to put her ahead of Kostner. Fortunately two silvers should work, and she need only stay ahead of Murakami and Zhang(or Gedevanishvili if she pulls it together). The former might be harder than the latter, but Flatt might win out on that consistency of hers. It might even serve he well if she does get knocked down to bronze and into the score tiebreaker. She'd have to be pretty unlucky for both of them to beat her.

    3. Kanako Murakami-Probably wants to win Skate America; I don't know if she'd win any score tiebreakers with only silver. But I think she'd need Kostner to help her. For starters. She'd also need a good free. So not impossible, but don't hold your breath.

    4. Kiira Korpi-Would need to win Trophée Eric Bombard, where she'd need Mao to melt down again. Though it's worth noting she does have a good shot at silver, if she herself doesn't melt down, where her top competition is Mirai Nagasu, Alissa Czisney, and Fumie Suguri, all three of whom she could beat(which means if Mao does melt down again...).

    Skate Canada Top Four:

    1. Alissa Czisney-Need only medal at Trophée Eric Bombard, and if she holds it together that shouldn't be too hard; a well-skating Mao would beat her, but Korpi isn't reliable, and even Mirai Nagasu is far from certain to beat her. It's the kind of field where Suguri is a factor, but there Alissa need only skate well. That's the only question, really, can she skate well this time?

    2. Ksenia Makarova-Would need to win Rostelecom Cup, or at least medal, where she's stuck with a stacked field: Miki Ando, Akiko Suzuki, and countrywoman Alena Leonova, and that's just for starters; there's Ashley Wagner and Agnes Zawadski lurking about. Even if she could beat the last two, for the first three she'll probably need for them to help. One of them might, but I don't know about two, let alone three, and if it's bronze, how will she fare in the score tiebreaker? The judges might help her, but how much?

    3. Amelie Lacoste-Would have to win Skate America, and I don't think she can beat Kostner. Even for silver she'd need help from Flatt, Murakami, and even Zhang(and Gedevanishvili, but...)

    4. Cynthia Phaneuf-To have any chance she'd have to win Trophée Eric Bombard, which is not entirely impossible if Mao melts down again, but even then there's Czisney, Nagasu, Korpi, and even Suguri, so it's not likely either. She'd probably need oft-mentioned meltdown to even have a chance at silver.

    Knocked out, but still factors:

    Ashley Wagner-5th at NHK, facing a thick field at Rostelecom Cup, but that could only cause her to make more difference if she's the one to surprise it
    Agnes Zawadski-6th at Skate Canada, less likely than Wagner to affect things at the Rostelecom Cup, but she showed the potential to
    Elene Gedevanishvili-6th at NHK, always has the potential to mix things up, at Skate America this time, but will she ever do so?
    Caroline Zhang-7th at NHK, but in the relatively weak Skate America field could still be a factor
    Mao Asada-8th at NHK and favorite to win Trophée Eric Bombard! Whether she skates better there or not could be the deciding factor in a few people's fates...
    Fumie Suguri-9th at Skate Canada, probably won't mix things up at Trophé Eric Bombard, but then that field's just unpredictable enough..
    Sarah Meier-Withdrew from Skate Canada, and opposite of Suguri, in the wrong field to make a difference in Russia, but you never know

    Contenders yet to skate:

    Miki Ando
    Akiko Suzuki
    Alena Leonova
    Mirai Nagasu

  2. #2
    Custom Title alexeifan's Avatar
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    Really nice analysis. I would thing kostner will win skate America unless she does really badly judges luv her. No matter what flatt does doubt she will win.

  3. #3
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Update after Cup of China.

    Assuming that a 1st and a 4th will probably make the final and a second and third will be on the bubble...

    Czisny -- needs 4th in France
    Ando -- needs 4th at Russia (So far Czisny has the tie-breaker over Ando, 123.57 to 172.21. )
    Kostner -- needs 4th in USA

    Makarova -- needs at least bronze in Russia
    Suzuki -- needs at least bronze in USA
    Flatt -- needs at least third in USA (So far Makarova has the tie-breaker over Suzuki and Flatt.)

    Lacoste -- needs at least silver in USA
    Murakami -- needs at least silver in USA
    Leonova -- needs at least silver in Russia (Lacoste has the tie-breaker in this group)

    Phaneuf -- must win in France
    Korpi -- must win in France
    Nagasu -- must win in France (Phaneuf has the tie-breaker in this group. Not that it matters -- thay can't all win TEB.)

    Prediction.

    Ando and Kostner are shoo-ins. They will both probably win their next two events and have 30 points.

    All the people who are counting their chickens at TEB will have to contend with Asada. Czisny could finish anywhere from first (if all of Asada, Phaneuf, Korpi and Nagasu bomb) to fifth (if bad Alissa shows up and everyone else skates well.) I will guess thrid for Alissa, putting her in the finals.

    Flatt should get at least third in USA, the only competition being Kostner and Murakami. Second on home turf will get Rachael in the finals for sure. Silver for Flatt knocks out Murakami and Lacoste.

    In spite of everything, I think Asada will win TEB, knocking out Phaneuf, Korpi and Nagasu (predict second for Mirai.) Susuki should get silver in Russia, with Makarova edging out Leonova for third.

    This gives:

    Ando 30
    Kostner 30
    Czisny 26
    Suzuki 26
    Flatt 26
    Makarova 24

    Spoiler: Mirai could win TEB if Asada cannot get her mojo back. Mirai wins first tie-breaker with Makarova at 24.

    (JMHO )
    Last edited by Mathman; 11-07-2010 at 06:07 PM.

  4. #4
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    My thoughts on ladies is this
    rachel and caroline kostner in with 28 points
    alissa in with either 28 or 26 points

    depending on how cup of russia goes i see all 4 in miki ando, akiko suzuki, ksenia markova and alena leonva
    for that to hajppen miki would come in 4th with 24, akiko suzuki would come in 3rd with 24 and ksenia markova would be in with 2nd and alena would be in with a win at 26
    at france
    cynthia phanuef would be in with 24 with a 2nd in france.

    my eight are
    rachel,
    alissa,
    carolina kosnter,
    miki ando
    akiko suzuki
    ksenia markova
    alena leonova
    cythnia phanuef
    with maybe kanko and amelie as spoilers and

  5. #5
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    Teehee, I'm surprised you didn't put a matrix in for these girls


    Makarova -- needs at least bronze in Russia
    Suzuki -- needs at least bronze in USA
    Flatt -- needs at least third in USA (So far Makarova has the tie-breaker over Suzuki and Flatt.)

    Lacoste -- needs at least silver in USA
    Murakami -- needs at least silver in USA
    Leonova -- needs at least silver in Russia (Lacoste has the tie-breaker in this group)


    Say in Russia
    Leonova - silver
    Makarova - bronze

    in USA
    Murakami - silver
    Flatt/Suzuki - bronze

    or
    Lacoste - silver
    Flatt/Suzuki - bronze

    or a million other combinations.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Teehee, I'm surprised you didn't put a matrix in for these girls


    Makarova -- needs at least bronze in Russia
    Suzuki -- needs at least bronze in USA
    Flatt -- needs at least third in USA (So far Makarova has the tie-breaker over Suzuki and Flatt.)

    Lacoste -- needs at least silver in USA
    Murakami -- needs at least silver in USA
    Leonova -- needs at least silver in Russia (Lacoste has the tie-breaker in this group)


    Say in Russia
    Leonova - silver
    Makarova - bronze

    in USA
    Murakami - silver
    Flatt/Suzuki - bronze

    or
    Lacoste - silver
    Flatt/Suzuki - bronze

    or a million other combinations.
    Akiko Suzuki's assigned to Russia, not America

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Teehee, I'm surprised you didn't put a matrix in for these girls


    Makarova -- needs at least bronze in Russia
    Suzuki -- needs at least bronze in USA
    Flatt -- needs at least third in USA (So far Makarova has the tie-breaker over Suzuki and Flatt.)

    Lacoste -- needs at least silver in USA
    Murakami -- needs at least silver in USA
    Leonova -- needs at least silver in Russia (Lacoste has the tie-breaker in this group)


    Say in Russia
    Leonova - silver
    Makarova - bronze

    in USA
    Murakami - silver
    Flatt/Suzuki - bronze

    or
    Lacoste - silver
    Flatt/Suzuki - bronze

    or a million other combinations.
    I doubt Alena will win silver in Russia, Makarova is much better than her and Miki is likely to win, meaning if she skates well she's looking at 3rd, and realistically more like 4th-6th (behind Ando, Makarova, Suzuki and possibly Zawadzki and Wagner), which likely won't get her into the final.

    Lacoste is not that reliable, and I think she got some hometown bonus points in Canada, I expect she'll finish OTP at SA and not make the final.

    So my picks are:

    Miki - 1st at CoC, 1st at COR
    Carolina - 1st at NHK, 3rd at SA
    Rachael - 2nd at NHK, 2nd at SA
    Ksenia - 2nd at SC, 2nd at COR
    Alissa - 1st at SC, 4th at TEB
    Kanako - 3rd at NHK, 1st at SA

  8. #8
    At the rink. Again. mskater93's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fairly4 View Post
    My thoughts on ladies is this
    rachel and caroline kostner in with 28 points
    alissa in with either 28 or 26 points

    depending on how cup of russia goes i see all 4 in miki ando, akiko suzuki, ksenia markova and alena leonva
    for that to hajppen miki would come in 4th with 24, akiko suzuki would come in 3rd with 24 and ksenia markova would be in with 2nd and alena would be in with a win at 26
    at france
    cynthia phanuef would be in with 24 with a 2nd in france.

    my eight are
    rachel,
    alissa,
    carolina kosnter,
    miki ando
    akiko suzuki
    ksenia markova
    alena leonova
    cythnia phanuef
    with maybe kanko and amelie as spoilers and
    fairly-
    only 6 make the SGP final. Which 6 of the 8 here...

  9. #9
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Okay let's consider

    Kankano — 26 (wins tie break due to SA win + higher scores, I think.)
    Carolina — 26 (wins to tie break due to NHK win)
    Rachael — 26
    Amelie — 18

    With two events
    Alissa — 15 (TEB)
    Miki — 15 (COR)
    Ksenia —13 (COR)
    Akiko — 13 (COR)
    Alena — 11 (COR)
    Cynthia — 9 (TEB)
    Korpi — 9 (TEB)
    Mirai — 9 (TEB)

    I think Alena got lucky b/c of Mirai's mess, so I'm not expecting much from her. So I think the medalists in COR will be Miki, Akiko and Ksenia. That would equal points of 30, 26 and 24

    As for TEB, I think Alyssa is safe if she finishes about 4th (24) Mirai , Cynthia or Kiira could sneak in with a win at TEB (24) and if Alyssa bombs by finishing fifth or lower (22)
    So my picks:
    Miki — 30 (win at COR)
    Kankano — 26
    Carolina — 26
    Rachael — 26
    Akiko — 26
    Alyssa — 24 (with fourth place finish)

    Spoilers to the list — Ksenia if she beats Akiko or Alyssa bombs TEB; Mirai, Kiira or Cynthia (if any of them wins TEB and Alyssa bombs in TEB)
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 11-14-2010 at 06:21 PM.

  10. #10
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    Carolina wins on tiebreak, not that it matters much.

  11. #11
    "Hold an edge and look sexy!" museksk8r's Avatar
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    Locks for the GPF so far:

    Kanako Murakami
    Carolina Kostner

  12. #12
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    I doubt Alena will win silver in Russia, Makarova is much better than her and Miki is likely to win, meaning if she skates well she's looking at 3rd, and realistically more like 4th-6th (behind Ando, Makarova, Suzuki and possibly Zawadzki and Wagner), which likely won't get her into the final.

    Lacoste is not that reliable, and I think she got some hometown bonus points in Canada, I expect she'll finish OTP at SA and not make the final.

    So my picks are:

    Miki - 1st at CoC, 1st at COR
    Carolina - 1st at NHK, 3rd at SA
    Rachael - 2nd at NHK, 2nd at SA
    Ksenia - 2nd at SC, 2nd at COR
    Alissa - 1st at SC, 4th at TEB
    Kanako - 3rd at NHK, 1st at SA
    Holy moly. Silverlake you can be really scary with your predictions sometimes. Do you do stock markets and the lottery??

    You did make these before SA right?

    If your COR predictions turn out right tomorrow I think you should look up Paul the Octopus's agent.
    Last edited by Layfan; 11-19-2010 at 11:28 PM.

  13. #13
    "Hold an edge and look sexy!" museksk8r's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    Locks for the GPF so far:

    Kanako Murakami
    Carolina Kostner
    Additional Locks after COR:
    Miki Ando
    Akiko Suzuki
    Rachael Flatt
    Last edited by museksk8r; 11-20-2010 at 01:11 PM.

  14. #14
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    After the Cup of Russia we got:

    Miki - 30
    Carolina - 26 (+ higher point total)
    Kankano - 26 (+1st place at SA)
    Akiko - 26 (+higher point total than Rach)
    Rachel -26
    Ashley - 18 ( +higher point total than Amelia LaCoste)

    We got in TEB
    Alissa - 15
    Cynthia Phaneuf - 9
    Kiira Korpi - 9
    Mirai - 9


    I think Alissa can get in easily with a top four finish. (15+9 =24)
    Mirai/Cynthia/Kiira can get in with a win (24) and if Alissa finishes fifth (15+7 =22) or lower, but that seems unlikely.

    It will be interesting to see what happens next week!
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 11-20-2010 at 12:46 PM.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    After the Cup of Russia we got:

    Miki - 30
    Carolina - 28
    Kankano - 26 (+1st place at SA)
    Akiko - 26 (+higher point total)
    Ashley - 18 ( +higher point total)
    Amelie -18

    We got in TEB
    Alissa - 15
    Cynthia Phaneuf - 9
    Kiira Korpi - 9
    Mirai - 9


    I think Alissa can get in easily with a top five finish. (15+9 =24)
    Mirai/Cynthia/Kiira can get in with a win (24). Heck one of them could get in with a silver (22).

    It will be interesting to see what happens next week!

    Wait, where's Rachael? She has 26, too (though she loses to Akiko), and Carolina has the same total as Kanako (1st at NHK, 3rd at SA; Kanako 3rd at NHK, 1st at SA), though she barely beats her on points

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