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Ladies prospects

burntBREAD

Medalist
Joined
Mar 27, 2010
Also another factor to consider: MAO comes back and wins it all, Nagasu finishing second (13+9 = 22) and Cziny finishing sixth or lower. Okay that seems extreme, but you never know.

Ice is slippery...particularly to Alissa Czisny under pressure
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Ice is slippery...particularly to Alissa Czisny under pressure

Or not, even. All that has to happen is that Bad Alyssa shows up. For the most part, good Alyssa showed up in Canada but did she get left behind when bad Alyssa showed up at the US nats qualifying comp? Stay tuned.
 

wonderlen3000

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2008
Also another factor to consider: MAO comes back and wins it all, Nagasu finishing second (13+9 = 22) and Cziny finishing sixth or lower. Okay that seems extreme, but you never know.

That going to take at least 3-4 falls from her. Has Alissa bombs the FS with 3 or more splat/pop jumps before?
 

sorcerer

Final Flight
Joined
May 1, 2007
...I think Alissa can get in easily with a top four finish. (15+9 =24)
Mirai/Cynthia/Kiira can get in with a win (24) and if Alissa finishes fifth (15+7 =22) or lower, but that seems unlikely. ...

Alissa can get 4th place and still lose the ticket:
If any of Mirai/Cynthia/Kiira wins with score like 175.40 total, and Alissa ends in 4th place with points less than 149.25 in this case, then Mirai/Cynthia/Kiira will go to the Final.
But I agree that this too is unlikely.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Not anymore, after Ksenia's implosion... :cry:

Yeah, Ksenia's performance was suprising. What a bummer.

Still, Silverlake has four of six right ... Well, I hope Alissa does better than fourth. But maybe Silverlake doomed her :p

Ah well, good luck to all of the girls next week. I really like many of the ladies in this event and i wish I could see all of them in the final.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Alissa can get 4th place and still lose the ticket:
If any of Mirai/Cynthia/Kiira wins with score like 175.40 total, and Alissa ends in 4th place with points less than 149.25 in this case, then Mirai/Cynthia/Kiira will go to the Final.
But I agree that this too is unlikely.

Bad Alyssa is totally capable of bombing like that. But OTOH, it's unlikely that Nagasu will score 175+ and near impossible that the other two will do it (JMO)

Czisny just needs to stay on her feet and let the chips fall. More likely than not it should be enough to medal.
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
The bottom line here, for me, is the Tie Breaker for all those ladies with 26 points.

It will be decided by the hghest scores given the skaters from Panels which vary from each other.

There needs to be another method to break ties. Using scores from different Panels in UNFAIR.

or just let all the 26s skate the Finals along with the 30s.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
The bottom line for me is who will perform well at Natls and then perform well at Worlds. This GP stuff is quite secondary, no?
Does anyone think Mao wants to win TEB - or is she concerned about winning a third WC :think:

Skating legacies are based on Worlds and Olympic results and have nothing to do with the pre-season aka the GP series.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
The bottom line here, for me, is the Tie Breaker for all those ladies with 26 points.

It will be decided by the hghest scores given the skaters from Panels which vary from each other.

There needs to be another method to break ties. Using scores from different Panels in UNFAIR.

or just let all the 26s skate the Finals along with the 30s.

All of the ladies with 26 points are in.

As far as I can see, there is no possible combination of placements for ladies at TEB that would necessitate looking at points to break ties.

janetfan said:
Does anyone think Mao wants to win TEB?

I can't speak for Mao, but I hope she does. Why else does an athlete compete?
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Is that a rhetorical question - or are you really so "competitively challenged."

The question was not intended to be rhetorical. If Mao is not competing to win, then what is she competing for? If you elect to participate in a competition then you should try to win, otherwise stay home.

"For who and for what?" For your pride as an athlete and for the fans who paid their money to watch you compete. If you feel that a lesser competition, like the Nebelhorn Trophy, or perhaps NHK, is beneath you, then it is beneath you. Don't go.

Is the Olympic motto "if your federation paid it's dues - and you are the 85th ranked skater in the world you have "earned a ticket to the Olympics/Worlds"?

It's not the Olympic motto, but it is how the Olympics is run. Each national Olympic committee "pays its dues" and gets to send athletes to the Olympics, whether they are serious contenders for medals or not.

What we have to keep in mind is that the ISU is an alliance of national federations. The national federations rule the roost. Yes, absolutely, if you pay your dues you get to send someone to Worlds. The only way to change this would be to disband the ISU and start over with a different kind of organization.

The World Skating Federation in 2002 was an attempt at such a move. They failed because (a) they focused in legal challenges instead of on proving that they were capable of organizing and running competitions, and (b) the IOC staunchly backed the ISU -- Cinquanta was on the IOC board of directors at the time. :cool:

Is the Grand Prix important? Well, "important" means "important to someone." I would say that winning a Grand Prix event (or even being selected to participate in one) is important to some skaters, not so important to others who have bigger fish to fry. That seems obvious.

Still, Mao should try to skate her best. :yes: I would be disappointed if she just mailed in her performance with an IOU to try harder at Worlds.

The GP series is merely a money making exhibition and is great because it pacifies those fans who like "pageant" type events while claiming to not like exhibition skating.

Trophee Eric Bombard is more "pageant-like" than the Olympic Games?

Bottom line, if you enter a skating competition, you should skate to win.
 
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prettykeys

Medalist
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Bottom line, if you enter a skating competition, you should skate to win.
I am unsure if that is the main motivator or goal for every skater who participates in a competition, however, especially someone as elite and accomplished as Mao.

I get the feeling that Mao would like to win, but that her focus is more on trying out her programs and testing her progress. She was clearly not ready to compete at NHK, but she did so anyway. Her eye is either on Nationals, Worlds, or longer-term prospects, I would guess.

So, as to the question, "Does Mao want to win TEB?" I assume, "not really, but it'd be nice."
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
^ Boo, phooey! Would Rocky Balboa enter the ring with the attitude, "well, it would be nice to win, but if I get b-slapped silly, that's OK. too?"
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
janetfan said:
Doesn't it follow that if the GPF actually meant anything (besides makng money) that the finalists would be at Worlds?

No.

Why does that FACT go right over your head........?

Because it is not a fact. It is an opinion. I am of a different opinion. I think it is possible for an event to "mean something" even if the "something that it means" is not related to the World championship.

(By the way, I don't think the Grand Prix events make money for the ISU, except possibly NHK. I might be wrong about that, though.)
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
All of the ladies with 26 points are in.

As far as I can see, there is no possible combination of placements for ladies at TEB that would necessitate looking at points to break ties.

We have now one 30 (Ando)
The 26s are Koster, Murikami, Flatt. If Czisny gets silver she joins the gang.

That would make 5. so Phaneuf, Korpi, and Nagasu will battle for 20 points and one will get a slot at GP Final!
If Czisny melts, we could get two.

As to the contest, I dig the GPs. It is sort like a Round Robin which shows more than just one big SPLASH signifying nothing.
 
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FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
If Mao wins TEB, Czisny will join the list of 26s if and only if she gets the silver.

We have now one 30 (Ando)
The 26s are Koster, Murikami, Flatt. If Czisny gets silver she joins the gang.

That would make 5. so Phaneuf, Korpi, and Nagasu will battle for 20 points and one will get a slot at GP Final!

As to the contest, I dig the GPs. It is sort like a Round Robin which shows more than just one big SPLASH signifying nothing.

You forgot Suzuki. She got 26.
But the 5 (Ando, Kostner, Murakami, Suzuki, and Flatt) are locked. All the gals with 26 points are in regardless of what will happen in Paris. The girls in Paris can kill each others for the last spot. Probably more interesting that way.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
No.



Because it is not a fact. It is an opinion. I am of a different opinion. I think it is possible for an event to "mean something" even if the "something that it means" is not related to the World championship.

(By the way, I don't think the Grand Prix events make money for the ISU, except possibly NHK. I might be wrong about that, though.)

Thanks, your opinion is fine and can't help thinking that you agree - the GP's are little more than exhibitions.
Or if you have a different view you certainly did not make a case for it.

The GP's are not related to Worlds and are much less significant to a skater's legacy.
Nobody gives poop that Sasha won a GPF.
What we remember and discuss is how such a talented skater never won Worlds or more Natl titles.

The GP's, because they are not as important just are not thought of that way.
They are fun, I like them, but I also like show skating.
 
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