Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
After two events, 16 pairs have competed, and there's been one elimination, and a couple of new contenders. Two sets of top fours:
NHK Trophy Top Four:
1. Qing Pang & Jian Tong-It says, everything, I think that Fantasy Figure Skating isn't including them in in the Cup of China pools; they know *everyone* would pick them.
2. Vera Bazarova & Yuri Larionov-Need to win Trophée Eric Bombard to seal it, where they're not likely to beat Savchenko & Szolkowy. But two silvers is more likely than not to do it, and when their biggest competition is Nicole Della Monica and Yannick Kocon? They should be fine.
3. Narumi Takahashi & Mervin Tran-Would need to win Rostelecom Cup to seal it, where they aren't going to beat Kavaguti & Smirnov. Silver would make it how the chips fall, and they've got a good chance; their biggest competition is Evora & Ladwig, or maybe Lawrence & Swiegers, and they've shown the ability to beat them.
4. Caitlin Yankowskas & John Couglin-Would need to win Cup of China, and they're not going to beat Pang & Tong. Even to win silver, they'll have a hard time against I&M, Sui & Han, and even Della Monica & Kocon, Evora & Ladwig, or Dong & Wu.
Skate Canada Top Four:
1. Lubov Iliushechkina & Nodari Maisuradze-Need only medal at Cup of China, where good skating leaves them behind Pang & Tong, but in all likelihood with silver. But they actually aren't always reliable, to the point they could drop down a little. But even in 4th they're left with a chance, so they'd have to go below three of Sui & Han, Della Monica & Kocon, Evora & Ladwig, or Dong & Wu, which would mean really bad skating. More likely than not they're through.
2. Kirsten Moore-Towers & Dylan Moscovitch-To seal it, need to win Skate America, which isn't going to happen against Savchenko & Szolkowy. So for silver, they're up against Denney & Barrett, Castelli & Shapnir, and Sui & Han. I think one of those could beat them, but it's less likely two will, so that's bronze, and they've still got a chance.
3. Paige Lawrence & Rudi Swiegers-Not going to beat Kavaguti & Smirnov at Rostelecom Cup either, and the chances aren't the highest for silver, but far from non-existent...
4. Marissa Castelli & Simon Shapnir-For any chance they'd need to win Skate America, which isn't happening, and they won't be the favorites for silver either.
Knocked out, but still a factor:
Caydee Denney & Jeremy Barrett-5th at NHK, good chance of mixing it up at Skate America
Contenders yet to skate:
Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy
Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov
Weijing Sui & Cong Han
Good review, although given Takahashi & Tran's inconsistent performance at NHK, I'm not sure about their chances for the silver at Rostelecom. I think Evora & Ladwig could beat them and Katarina Gerboldt & Alexander Enbert may also provide competition
They still have work to do but quite impressive considering that Katarina switched to pairs in March.
I see Pang & Tong and Savchenko & Szolkowy cruising to the final. I see 2 Russian teams making it even with Kavaguti & Smirnov and Volosozhar & Trankov out of the running. The remaining 2 spots I see going to 2 out of Sui & Han, Takahashi & Tran, Evora & Ladwig, and Moore-Towers & Moscovitch. Hard to predict which 2 now.
I pick Savchenko & Szolkowy, Vera Bazarova & Yuri Larionov, Narumi Takahashi & Mervin Tran, Lubov Iliushechkina & Nodari Maisuradze, Evora & Ladwig, Pang/Tong.
german team-savchenko /solchowky
maybe denny barret/ takashi/tran, sui/han, yankowas/coughlin and russian team.
had a few down-don't have names with me.
So as you can see the pairs in china did very well. Doesn't this show you that it's not accurate that there has been racism?? Chinese pairs have been doing well for years.
Originally Posted by fairly4
P/T, S/S, I/M, B/L (i believe that they can get silver at TEB)
4 teams are iffy at this point. Sui/Han and MT/M needs to get silver at america. The other would have to get bronze and hope to have higher total scores than either Takahashi/Tran and Lawrence/Sweigers (if one manages to get silver in russia). Based on this, odds are that Sui/Han will make it to the final (getting silver, or having a higher score). So that leaves me with a toss up between MT/M, T/T, and L/S. That's alot of pressure on these teams, especially considering how green they all are!
BTW, whats the news with kavaguti/smirnov? why only 1 gp event, and will they be at rostelcom?
They withdrew from Skate Canada due to her shoulder surgery.
I think Sui/Han and Mt/M have an advantage from large base value, but I doubt they'll get the PCS they got in their first competitions. Ditto Takahashi/Tran. And Lawrence/Sweigers. So really, it's anyone's game.
Cross post to one I wrote in SA thread...here's who I expect
Savchenko /Szolkowy -30 (winning TEB)
Barizova/Larinov - 26 (second at TEB)
Iliushechkina / Maisuradze = 24
Sui/Han - 24 (I think they have a good shot, as I mentioned in my post, Takahashi/Tran or Lawrence/Sweigers would have to finish first to boot them out for sure, and silver would not kick them out because I think they would win tiebreakers).
Crushing on Hanyu, Abbott, Kozuka, & Farris <3
Locks for the GPF so far:
Pang + Tong
Moore-Towers + Moscovitch
Okay after COR we got
P/T = 30
M-T/M = 26
I/M = 24 (1+4)
S/H = 24 (2+3 + higher overall score)
T/T = 24 (3+2)
Y/C = 20
Me thinks that S/S and B/L will qualify for the final easily and that S/H will hold on to that last spot
S/H has made the Sr Final. Big question is, will the Chinese Federation have S/H stay in the Senior Final, or pull them and keep them in the Junior Final only, or try to do both (with different versions of programs). If the latter, that's skating 4 programs (2 SP + 2 FS) in 48 hours.
Takahashi/Tran are 1st alternates so if S/H are withdrawn from Sr, Japanese federation would have to make same decision.
S/H have withdrawn from the JGPF and so will do the SGPF. Makes sense, they've won all the junior events...
Teams can't do both, they need to pick either the senior GPF or junior GPF.
Originally Posted by bigsisjiejie
I think it sucks that a team like K/S won't be going because the only did one event, even though they won it. The teams should be ranked by the high total score regardless of how may competitions it took to get it. Some of the teams that are going are not the best and will be shocked when worlds rolls around and they don't crack the top six.
Last edited by mousepotato; 11-29-2010 at 01:48 PM.
Wicked Yankee Girl
but they will be happy to take the appearance money and world standings points from the GPF appearance in any case.