Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
Ice Dance Prospects
Two events have seen 19 couples skate, and there have been a couple of interesting results, with a number of new contenders rising to the surface. So far:
NHK Trophy Top Four:
1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White-Should win Skate America, then the Finale.
2. Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Pojé-Not going to beat Davis & White at Skate America, but two silvers would work. But for that they're up against their countrymen, who have just won an event, and whom they haven't beaten in two years. Also the Shibutanis and Capellini & Lanotte, and you can't assume they'll beat either couple again when both made mistakes last time. Even Riaznova & Tkachenko could beat a possible factor. They may need luck even for bronze and a chance.
3. Maia & Alex Shibutani-Not going to beat Marlie either, and the question stills remains of if they can beat Capellini & Lanotte for silver again, and both of the two Canadian teams could beat them too; I suspect Crone & Poirier will.
4. Elena Ilyinkh & Nikita Katsalapov-To have a chance they'd need to win Rostelecom Cup, where they'd need to beat Faiella & Scali and the Kerrs, and the odds are against them beating either.
Skate Canada Top Four:
1. Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirier-Need only medal at Skate America, where they'll face off Capellini & Lanotte for silver, and they may not win that. But the odds are in their favour over Weaver & Pojé and the Shibutanis for the bronze, and so long as they beat one of them they've still got a chance.
2. Sinead & John Kerr-Need to win Rostelecom Cup to make it certain, and they don't typically beat Faiella & Scali. They need to focus on silver, which they're not safe for: Hoffman & Zavozin or even Bobrova & Soloviev could beat them if they don't skate clean. After this week's disappointment, well, they really don't want to lose to them both...
3. Madison Chock & Greg Zuerlin-Need to win Trophée Eric Bombard to make it certain, and if Virtue & Moir make it there that's not happening. Even for silver and a chance they'd need to beat Pechelat & Bourzat, which isn't too likely either.
4. Alexandra Paul & Mitchell Islam-For any chance they'd need to win Rostelecom Cup, where the odds are long indeed for even silver.
Out, but still factors:
Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir-withdrawn from Skate Canada, but will win Trophée Eric Bombard unless her shins stop them
Anna Cappelini & Luca Lanotte-5th at NHK Trophy, could break some other couple's hearts at Skate America
Contenders yet to skate:
Frederica Faiella & Massimo Scali
Nathalie Pechelat & Fabian Bourzat
Nora Hoffman & Maxim Zavozin
Wicked Yankee Girl
Cup of China is going to be very, very interesting!
A link to the standings might be useful, because they also have the tie breakers listed
1 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE USA 15 X 15 1 165.21 1 98.24 98.24 66.97 10
2 Vanessa CRONE / Paul POIRIER CAN 15 X 15 1 154.42 1 91.47 91.47 62.95 9
3 Sinead KERR / John KERR GBR 13 X 13 2 149.80 1 86.84 86.84 62.96 9
4 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 13 X 13 2 141.57 1 82.88 82.88 58.69 10
5 Madison CHOCK / Greg ZUERLEIN USA 11 X 11 3 139.05 1 84.86 84.86 54.19 9
6 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 11 X 11 3 136.93 1 83.25 83.25 53.68 10
At COC, contenders are
At SA, contenders are:
My guess is D&W win, giving them 2 firsts
C/P 2nd, giving them a first and a second
W/P 3rd, giving them a second and a third
At COR contenders are:
Faiella & Scali
Bobrova & Soloviev
Paul and Islam
My guess is F&S win, Kerrs 2nd or 3rd, B&S 2nd or 3rd
At TEB, it looks like a weak field.
Chock & Zuerlein
And of course, V&M, should they compete, will win.
Riazanova & Tkachenko
Chock & Zuelein could end up with a 2nd and a 3rd.
P&B should have a 1st and a 2nd
So overall we have:
D&W 30 pts
F&S 30 pts
C&P 28 pts
P&B 28 pts
The 5th spot will likely be Kerrs 26 pts:
Then the final spot will be up for grabs on tie breaks
If B&S grab the second spot at COR, both they and the Kerrs could fall in the tie break bucket for the last 2 spots.
both of whom have a good shot for a 2nd and a 3rd (24 points). The tie breakers as they currently stand are very close, and its impossible to call at this point.
Last edited by dorispulaski; 11-02-2010 at 04:52 AM.
I see Davis & White and Crone & Poirier already being pretty safe. I see Failla & Scali making it barring a disaester. Pechalat & Bourzat should be fine as long as they dont allow Bobrova & Soloviev to beat them this weekend. If B&S can place 2nd this week they are in the running, and even if not they are in it if they beat the Kerrs at COR. I think the Kerrs will probably make it. I see Weaver & Poje or B&S getting the final spot. Weaver & Poje only making it if B&S are 3rd at both their events since I see B&S posting higher scores. I guess Chock & Zuelein have a shot if Virtue & Moir dont skate their 2nd event.
Last edited by pangtongfan; 11-04-2010 at 01:17 AM.
Well this weekends results change things a bit. Bobrova & Soloviev look in better shape now but still could fall into a tiebreak if they are only 3rd at Cup of Russia. Honestly with both the Kerrs and Italians looking shaky early though it would seem their odds to beat atleast 1 of those 2 on home ice are pretty good though.
The Italians are now under the gun and need to win Cup of Russia to be safe.
Pechalat & Bourzat are pretty much safe now. The TEB fields sucks so barring a disaester they will win both their GP events actually. Well that or Virtue & Moir showing up last minute.
V/M aren't coming. They said they'd miss the fall series in MacLeans magazine.
D/W, C/P and P/B are safe. The next three slots are between B/S, The Shibs, W/P, F/S, C/Z and the Kerrs. It would be cool to see two Canadian and two American teams. Right now, I'm thinking
1. D/W (15+15)
2. P/B (15+15)
3. C/P (15+13)
4. F/S (11+15)
5. B/S (13+13)
6. W/P vs C/Z vs Kerrs, with W/P winning on tie break.
Last edited by ImaginaryPogue; 11-07-2010 at 01:25 PM.
Wicked Yankee Girl
SKate America Teams with points coming in
W&P I think will finish 3rd, but S&S could overtake them. S&S beat them in the FD at NHK
Based on this line up, D&W and C&P are a lock for the GPF, I think.
Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE USA 15
Vanessa CRONE / Paul POIRIER CAN 15
Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 13 (26 or 24)
Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 11 (22 or 24) It is the USA after all. Home cooked scores.
Cup of Russia. This is going to be a very competitive, interesting event, and really, it will determine who is in the GPF and who is not.
B&S, K&K, and F&S are all on a similar level. I'm thinking Kerrs are in the better shape of the 2 non-Russian teams, and B&S won't finish lower than 2nd, because of home-brew grading. But it might not be, if the I&K fever hits, and they are finally in shape (which they weren't really, at NHK) F&S might not win this one. It's only 2 weeks since CoC and they have a lot to fix.
Sinead KERR / John KERR GBR 13. They could have 28, 26, or 24 coming out of here.
Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 13 (home cooking. They will likely get 2nd, maybe 3rd, especially if he goofs up the twizzles again. But again, they may get pumped up to 1st...
Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI ITA 11 They could have 26, 24, or 22 coming out of here. If they don't win, they don't make it, Kerrs or Bobrova do.
Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS 9
Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM CAN 9
Nora HOFFMAN / Maxim ZAVOZIN HUN 9
TEB. Darn weak field.
Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT FRA 15 No way they are not winning, coming out with 30.
Madison CHOCK / Greg ZUERLEIN USA 11 (They could get out of here with 24)
Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 9
Granted, this is in France, but their FD is a total train wreck. What the heck does a flamenco have to do with The Rolling Stones????
I'm thinking the Kerrs get in on the tiebreak/not W/P.
Last edited by dorispulaski; 11-07-2010 at 03:20 PM.
I'd almost rather see W/P 4th than lose a GPF spot due to a tiebreak. But my thoughts here.
1. W/P left quite a few points on the table at NHK in the the SD and FD - Just getting a couple more level twos to threes and threes to four will give them a 3-4 point bump or so. The Kerrs did leave points on the table with levels as well, but how soon will she heal/get to competitive peak? And those levels tend to be tricky - they were the only team at worlds to have a solo level one element last season (those twizzles, FD). That said, W/P are prone to make errors anyway and they will certainly be behind PCS wise.
2. People mention home cooked scores, but outside of Lysacek (arguably), Skate America was actually quite restrained last year. It kept Belbin/Agosto quite low, Flatt scored 117, but that was for a clean 7 triple FD. And Nationals was notable for being one of the few events National events where hyper-inflation did not take place (which, hilariously, Lysacek and Carroll complained about). I do think the Shibs can beat W/P, though.
3. Do you think the PCS for Bobrova/Soloviev indicates that they'll be the Russian #1s, or is there some truth to the I/K hype?
Wicked Yankee Girl
I think that Russians are scratching their head about which one of these hungry young teams is The One. TAT giving The Black Mark to I&K's programs at the Russian Test Skate combined with B&S winning silver at CoC over F&S (while I&K came in 4th behind the Shibs, who had a bad fall in the SD, at NHK) has to have confused things. I'm guessing B&S are currently thought of as first, but it's just a guess.
And one should not forget Riazanova/Tkachenko, who were 2nd in the SD at Nebelhorn, and 3rd overall there. They have assignments at SA and CoR. R&T will presumably have improved since Nebelhorn, especially since they are a relatively new team.
Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO RUS (58.31 in the SD at Nebelhorn)
Midline Step Not Touching (Lev 3 at Nebelhorn)
Golden Waltz Segment 1 (Lev 4 at Nebelhorn)
Golden Waltz Segment 2 (Lev 2 at Nebelhorn)
Sequential Twizzles (Lev 4 at Nebelhorn)
Rotational Lift (Lev 4 at Nebelhorn)
I think we can eliminate Gorshkova & Butikov from consideration as a Russian world contending team this year, though.
Last edited by dorispulaski; 11-07-2010 at 06:37 PM.
shutibanis-but alot depends on outcome of skate america
weaver/poje or riazonova tkachenko
maybe carron and jones as spoilers
Crone/Poirier - 28
Waver/Poje - 22 (higher because of higher ranking at NHK)
With two events to go we got:
Pechalat/Bourzat - 15 (TEB)
BOBROVA / SOLOVIEV -13 (COR)
FAIELLA / SCALI - 11 (COR)
CHOCK / ZUERLEIN -11 (TEB)
PAUL / ISLAM- 9 (COR)
ILINYKH / KATSALAPOV - 9 (COR)
HOFFMANN / ZAVOZIN - 9 (COR)
(Kerr/Kerr has 15, but is dropping off of COR)
P/B will likely win TEB and get into GPF with little problem. Heck they can medal and still get into GPF. I think that F/S will get over their freak accidents and win COR and get into the final. CHOCK / ZUERLEIN can get in with a silver medal in a weak TEB field.
D/W (USA) (30)
P/B (FRA)(30 with TEB win)
C/P (CAN )(28)
F/S (ITA) (26 with COR win)
B/S (RUS) (26 with COR silver)
C/Z (USA) (24 with TEB silver)
"Hold an edge and look sexy!"
So right now the only locks for the GPF are:
Davis + White
Crone + Poirier
Wicked Yankee Girl
This is true:
Davis & White and Crone & Poirier will surely make the GPF.
Pechalat & Bourzat will almost surely win TEB, because the field there is very weak, giving them 30 points. They are the only remaining team with a 2nd event pending who have a win.
Two teams have a 2nd place finish, Kerrs, who have withdrawn from the series, and Bobrova & Soloviev.
If B&S score as high as 4th, with over 283.91 for a total score, they will displace both W&P and the Shibutanis. In fact, my guess is that they could win, place or show; any way they make the final.
Of teams with 11 points, Faiella & Scali and Chock & Zuerlein stand the best chance. F&S were low because of 2 freak skirt accidents at Cup of China. Their programs are interesting, too. OToh, Cup of Russia is packed with young, up and coming talent. Paul & Islam (9 pts), I&K (9 points),and Hoffman & Zavozin (9 points) will all be there. If any of them displaces either F&S or B&S for 2nd, they will bump the Shibutanis, and perhaps W&P if they have enough total points. This is possible, but not likely. B&S have the best result, and the highest total score of these contenders for 2nd.
Of those who have already skated, the following are on the bubble:
W&P with 22 points. The first tie breaker is highest finish, which for them was second. They have 283.91 total points.
Shibutanis 22 points, both 3rds. The second tie break is total score; they have 281.74.
So my guess is that after CoR,
Davis & White
Crone & Poirier
Faiella & Scali (with either a 1st or 2nd at CoR)
Bobrova & Soloviev (with either a 1st or 2nd at CoR) will have clinched spots. Any of the likely 3rd place teams will only have 20 points, and won't make the final.
That leaves 1 spot open, given that P&B are pretty much a lock at TEB.
TEB is an extraordinarily weak field. Teams that could land on the podium there (other than P&B) are C&Z (11 points) , Carron & Jones (9 points), and Riazanova & Tkachenko (7pts). Of those, only C&Z could displace W&P from the GPF without a tie break. They would have to finish 2nd to do it, because the 2nd place at NHK is W&P's tie breaker. If C&Z finish 2nd, they are in, no tie breaker needed. Their SC score was 139.05, more than their near competitors at their events. If they finish 3rd or lower, & C/J aren't second, W&P make the final. If C/J are second, their total score has to beat W/P, again not likely. So the likelihood is that the Shibutanis don't make the GPF, in all cases, and either C/Z or W/P do make the final, depending on the outcome of TEB.
Its looke like now the final spot into the GP final will either go to Hoffmann & Zavozin or Chock & Zuerlein.
Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
D/W - 30
C/P - 28 (1/2 + 303.50)
B/S - 28 (1/2 + 299.72)
W/P - 22 (2nd at NHK + 283.91)
H/Z - 22 (2nd at COR + 272.91)
S/S -22 (Two bronze + 281.74)
P/B - 15
C/Z - 11
P/B will win and push the Shubanits out. As others say it's down to H/Z and C/Z. A silver will do it (11+13=24). A bronze would leave H/Z on because of the placement tie break.
Last edited by Mrs. P; 11-20-2010 at 02:05 PM.