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Thread: Ice Dance Prospects

  1. #16
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    I would prefer Hoffman and Zazovin make it. I think they are a more promising team who is improving quickly right now and would be better to have in the final. Chock & Zuerlin are having a good comeback year after last but I still think they have plateaued a bit almost. I dont think they would be competitive at all at the final. I honestly think the Shibutanis are already better than them now.

  2. #17
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I would prefer Hoffman and Zazovin make it. I think they are a more promising team who is improving quickly right now and would be better to have in the final. Chock & Zuerlin are having a good comeback year after last but I still think they have plateaued a bit almost. I dont think they would be competitive at all at the final. I honestly think the Shibutanis are already better than them now.
    I like both teams; however, it is much closer than you suggest between C&Z and H&Z, as witness their scores. Recall that we do not know yet how much C&Z learned from their first outing at Skate Canada:

    Hoffman & Zavozin /Cup of Russia marks/Cup of China Marks

    Total 142.09/130.82
    fd 84.85/78.13
    sd 57.24/52.69

    Chock & Zuerlein at Skate Canada

    Total 139.05
    fd 84.86
    sd 54.19

    You will note that if you compare first event to first event grades, Chock outscores Hoffman by 9 points overall, 7 of those in the FD, and that Chock's first outing FD score is actually better than Hoffman's CoR score.

    As to the SD, you might have concerns about Chock's Skate Canada SD score. However, a quick perusal of the protocols would show you that they got only level 1 for a Rotational lift. This is easily fixed. Consequently, a better guess of what their TEB SD score would be a minimum of 57 points (3 extra points for a level 4 lift). That's without Chock not losing a level in the twizzle, and losing some GOE in the twizzles, by putting a foot down early.

    It's entirely possible that Chock will outscore H&Z at CoR, as well as taking second place at TEB.

    As to the Shibutanis, if they had mastered the Golden Waltz early, and had gone for shorter skirts, they would have been second at NHK for sure, and possibly at SA as well, depending on how they would have been scored vs. Crone & Poirier who for whatever reason, did not skate as well at SA as at SC. They then would have displaced both C/Z and H/Z.

    I would not make a bet as to who will score better at US Nationals, Chock or Shiutani. This is nothing new. Those teams (and particularly Madison and Maia) have been swapping places since they were in Intermediates.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 11-22-2010 at 09:40 AM.

  3. #18
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    Chock & Zuerlein should take silver at TEB unless they suffer a major error. Zuerlein is an excellent skater but previously skated with little emotion. This FD program gives him a way to emote - all good. Think they are overall better skaters than Hoffmann & Zavozin but it will be interesting to see how US Nationals turns out. C & Z and the Shibs will mostly likely make the World Team but which team scores higher will be interesting. Maia's growth this past year has been tremendously beneficial to the team's overall look on the ice - also all good. Maia has the quickest turns in the air in skating - she twists in a blink of an eye - amazing. Like both teams.

  4. #19
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Yes, so do I

    In fact, the only bad thing is I like all four of the top US teams these days-including Samuelson & Bates.

    This year, with S&B out, that's all great, but next year, when S&B are back, I will be sad, no matter which team does not get to go to worlds.

    I am hoping that C&Z (or S&S) score high enough at Worlds so that the US gets 3 teams again next year! With both teams either alternates or actually going to the GPF, they should be able to do it

    Dance is still our deepest discipline in the US...and who'd a thunk it back in the 1990's when some years we didn't get to send more than a single team to Worlds?

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    Of course, I also like Samuelson & Bates but unfortunately they are out for the season. Next year will be tough on everyone with so many good teams in the US. Canada too will have to make difficult choices once V&M return. But competition just makes everyone better.

  6. #21
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    It does.

  7. #22
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    Ice Dance lineup:

    Davis and White — 30 + 321.89
    Pechalat and Bourzat — 30 + 321.31
    Crone and Poirier — 28 + 303.50
    Bobrova and Soloviev — 28 + 299.72
    Weaver and Poje — 22 + (2nd and 4th + 283.91)
    Hoffmann and Zavozin — 22 (2nd and 4th + 272.91)

    Alternates
    Shibuanti and Shibuanti — 22 (3rd and 3rd + 281.74)
    Chock and Zuerlein – 22 (3rd and 3rd + 277.53)
    Rizanova and Tkachenko — 20 (5th and 2nd beats Ilinykh and Katsalapov's 3rd and 4th place finishes)

  8. #23
    Trixie Schuba's biggest fan! blue dog's Avatar
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    YAY! Three of my favourite teams are in! I am happy!

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Ice Dance lineup:

    Davis and White — 30 + 321.89
    Pechalat and Bourzat — 30 + 321.31
    Crone and Poirier — 28 + 303.50
    Bobrova and Soloviev — 28 + 299.72
    Weaver and Poje — 22 + (2nd and 4th + 283.91)
    Hoffmann and Zavozin — 22 (2nd and 4th + 272.91)

    Alternates
    Shibuanti and Shibuanti — 22 (3rd and 3rd + 281.74)
    Chock and Zuerlein – 22 (3rd and 3rd + 277.53)
    Rizanova and Tkachenko — 20 (5th and 2nd beats Ilinykh and Katsalapov's 3rd and 4th place finishes)

    SO happy for Weaver and Poje I'll bet very few expected this from them at the beginnig of the season. After all of work they've put in over the past few seasons, they can finally prove their worth. Although I have no doubt that the judges will keep them in 6th place, at least they made it. I also love that Canada has two dance teams in the GPF even without Virue and Moir, and that if V/M had competed, would have had three. These results, along with Paul/Islam's really amazing debut at SC and Ralph/Hill's decent showings, proves just how good the dance program in Canada is. They must be the best set of dance teams in the world right now.

  10. #25
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    Agree. Really happy for Weaver/Poje, as well as Crone/Poirier. I hope this gives Weaver/Poje some real confidence, which, along with continued good training, will result in greater consistency. Just maybe Canada will keep 3 spots next year at Worlds, even if Virtue/Moir take the rest of the season to recover (which I sort of hope they do). And while I say this, I do think they are benefiting from the fact some really good teams are not up to speed this season. I'm thinking of Virtue/Moir, Faella/Scali, Kerrs and maybe even Samuelson/Bates. Crone/Poirier would probably have made the cut if everyone were healthy and competing, but that is not guaranteed, and Weaver/Poje would not have qualified.

    I also agree that Canada has some amazing depth in ice dance. Paul/Islam just need time and refinement, and hopefully a chance to develop their own unique style. I think if they continue down the road of channeling Virtue/Moir, it could really back-fire on them. I don't think Ralph/Hill have had decent showings. Their marks are very close to some of the top juniors in Canada. They have not made a huge amount of improvement over the last couple of years, and their program choices, along with costume fiascos, have not done them any favours. I really think they could drop out of the top 5, even with Virtue/Moir taking the season off, since there are some hard working and developing teams behind them. And next year there will be some good juniors that will likely make the leap to senior. Unless things really change for Ralph/Hill, I just don't see them in the mix anytime soon. As great as the Scarboro rink is, perhaps they need a change of venue and coaching. And that's another wonderful thing about ice dance in Canada: there are other great rinks - Quebec, Barrie, Waterloo, Vancouver all come to mind.

  11. #26
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    It never hurts to get a second opinion-if they didn't want to go to another rink, they could go to someone else for things they perceive themselves to be lacking in.

    V&M and D&W did this; very successfully I might add. They went to Cirque du Soleil for their lifts; they went to dance experts for the character of Bollywood and ballroom tango and to the inventor of the Tango Romantica for the definitive word on that; they went to mimes and acting classes --and that's just the ones I know about. I don't see why the Scarboro teams couldn't go outside for specific things.

    In the case of posture and legline, maybe a summer spent in Ashton with Linichuk or in Michigan with Netchaeva?

    Outside choreographers with different costume makers, too, would be a help. Certainly C&P went to an outside choreographer, so you can do that at Scarboro rink.

    Actually, I like Ralph & Hill a lot more than C&P; just my personal taste, and it's why the programs they've been given, the costumes they wear, and the lack of improvement in some of their flaws annoys me very much.

  12. #27
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    I'm so happy Weaver and Poje made it!! I kinda feel sorry for them being SLIGHTLY shafted by Crone and Poirier a lot, but I guess that's competition. I think they will end up in 5th or 6th place, but it's still good (they could beat Hoffman and Zavozin?)

    Re: Ralph and Hill, I agree with a post I saw on here awhile ago that they're doing too many African-themed programs (last year's FD and this year's is African-influenced). They do need to branch out. I could see them still ahead of Islam & Paul at Nationals though, as Islam & Paul scored low at Rostelecom before withdrawing.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by blue_idealist View Post
    Re: Ralph and Hill, I agree with a post I saw on here awhile ago that they're doing too many African-themed programs (last year's FD and this year's is African-influenced). They do need to branch out. I could see them still ahead of Islam & Paul at Nationals though, as Islam & Paul scored low at Rostelecom before withdrawing.
    They were African themed at Novice and Junior as well, I believe. I remember seeing their FD at Novice and being totally impressed and blown away. And then being slightly disappointed they simply modified it for Junior. But I guess if you keep winning..... Now the novelty is completely worn off, and it is definitely time to find some new material. It's about stretching themselves and growing in the experience. It's the difference between developing skills and artistry, vs finding the quickest way to "win". I see this approach as being a little like Royal Conservatory exams in Canada. It is possible to study only the pieces from the list the student and teacher choose to test, and nothing else on the lists, take the exams, and pass the level. I've seen kids do this - Grade 1, 2, 3, all the way up to about Grade 7 or 8. At that point, these poor kids hit a wall. They can play notes, but they are not real musicians. And then they get frustrated and disillusioned, and drop out when both the material is complex and the expectations are higher. If they took the time to really dig into each level, grow their skills, and expand their artistic horizons, they are ready to tackle the music at the top levels. And this is a little bit of what I see with Ralph/Hill. They've taken the path of least resistance to the Senior ranks, and now they have to grow and change. And up to now, I haven't seen it.

    Not sure about their ability to stay ahead of Paul/Islam. They have some pretty solid skills, and are the new "it" team in Canada. I wouldn't use Russia GP as the gauge for ability. They were injured. If they are healthy, I expect them to post some good scores.

  14. #29
    Constable , Costume Police colleen o'neill's Avatar
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    :mad: Lost my post .I hate when that happens !

    Ah, well here's the gist : I bet W/P have been working like fiends the last few weeks , knowing there was a chance they'd make the GPF. They'll be doing their darndest to avoid the costly deductions, this time. So I'd say all bets are off for at least the last 3 spots, depending on all the usual variables ( judging panel , who's healthy , nerves , etc.etc.)
    I'm not at all confident of C/P's ability to place above B/S. Far from a done deal in my book . Whether or not you like the choice of B/S's "Delilah", the program, itself, has a more waltz-like feel than C/P's "Fallin". In their FD, they have some very nice and difficult bits of choreography , and even if the concept is no departure from the norm , I'm not sure that's a bad thing for them, this year. While I really like Dean's choreo. for C/P, I doubt it's going to become one of his iconic pieces. It is designed to provide cover for their lack of expression. It's a good abstract program with some nice lines and unusual touches. No matter how many reactionary, after-the-fact explanations and searches for symbolism people want to indulge in , I'm pretty sure that's how the judges will view it. I don't think they'll ignore the "story lines must be clear and easily understandable " guideline this soon after creating it.

    I so agree with the points made by doris and NorthernDancers regarding the Canadian scene. I expect P/I to pass R/H at Nationals, provided her rib is healed. They had some pretty good tech. scores at SC. Leaving aside the usual arguments about home country scores, and a small but costly misstep in their SD, they managed to hold their own and looked like they belonged with the more experienced couples in the field. Their SD has sophisticated music and costumes and R/H's SD will look very junior-ish by comparison. P/I have nice lines, posture, pointed toes , and a mature aplomb that R/H have yet to acquire.

    If R/H stay put, I really hope they seek some of that outside help that's been suggested.
    Maybe some workshops where they work alongside peers who aren't from their rink might be good. Judging by some of the reactions displayed in the KnC, they may not have a very objective view of where they stand.

    They have a nice warm presence on the ice, and often give a feeling of actually dancing more so than C/P, though C/P are technically superior.
    They've been the #2 team at their rink for a few years now, but unlike the situation with V/M and D/W , they aren't directly competitive with C/P, technically ,so they don't really push each other ( that I can see ). At the same time , their rink has gained ( IMO) a somewhat exaggerated reputation for excellence.. benefiting from having 2 couples who have been together a long time, and have placed well by virtue of the technical skills that come from lengthy partnerships ,and in spite of the areas of development that have largely been ignored.

    So I see this team as being the most vulnerable to disappointment, come Canadians.
    Last edited by colleen o'neill; 11-29-2010 at 08:51 PM.

  15. #30
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    1. Wow, harsh on C/P. I don't think my response to it is a "reactionary, after-the-fact explanation" at all. My response to their program is hugely visceral, which is what surprises me so much, because that kind of "wham" emotional impact is something they've never had for me. I think it'll be a challenge to beat B/S at the GPF, but not one to shirk from, but one to attack. Given that their season best totals are virtually tied, I don't think anyone believes they're a sure thing (in fact, most in the prediction thread are going for B/S at the moment).

    2. colleen, I thought the same thing about W/P. Last season. They missed out on the Olympics by 0.3 points! I thought they'd be working like mad over the summer to prevent those errors that they made at Cup of China (which dropped them to eighth at one point), at Skate Canada (where they lost to B/S in the FD though snagged a bronze, barely) and the stumbles at Nationals. But they keep doing it. It's a mental thing, those lapses in concentration that prove costly.

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