Serious Question about Patrick Chan's skating ability compared to other skaters

[gkelly]

Not all elite level skaters have the same quality of skating skills, hence the reason why there is a wide disparity of scores (in the same way all Juvies or Intermediates have the same quality of skating skills).

This. (You mean not all Juvies or Intermediates have the same quality of skating skills, right? )

The biggest problem with the PCS mark is that they are supposed to be independent but I think Mathman did a regression analysis and there's too much commonality across the scores to think that judges weigh each separately. Also, when the judges are asked to start with different components (start with TR instead of SS) the marks change.

What's the solution? More training for the judges? Choose a different component to present first on the judges' screens all the time or randomize them? Have some judges mark GOEs and Skating Skills and another set of judges mark the rest of the components?

[Mathman]

^ No solution, but it is quite an interesting psychological phenomenom.

It seems to be the case that the judges pay most detailed attention to the first component to be scored. If it is Transitions, they work hard to get the transitions scores right, then -- relaxing their diligence a little, as is only human -- they sort of figure that if a skater had outstanding transitions then his skating skills must be pretty good in order to do them, plus good transitions can only help the musical interpretation and choreography, right?

Having invested such concentration on Transitions, we are asking quite a bit of the judges simultaneously to be keeping eqaually close track of

...how well the skater expresses the nuances of each phrase of music is reflected under Interpretation.

The skater who is always on the beat and always finding little details in the music to express with a turn of the head or hand or a sway of the hips or lilt in the knees will deserve higher scores for Interpretation than the skater who smiles and hits a few obvious highlights.

(Great post (#87), BTW.)

[mskater93]

This. (You mean not all Juvies or Intermediates have the same quality of skating skills, right?

What's the solution? More training for the judges? Choose a different component to present first on the judges' screens all the time or randomize them? Have some judges mark GOEs and Skating Skills and another set of judges mark the rest of the components?

Oops! Yes, that's what I meant.

I don't know the solution, but I do know that there's a correlation with regard to "corridor scoring" of the PCS factors on each judges' card (so if the first thing to pop up to score is SS and I score that an 8.0, everything is +/- around that score). Maybe it should be scored like freestyle skiing where each judge is responsible for a mark and the whole thing gets added up.

Relative scoring is typically the "best" type of solution for performance sport (so 6.0 scale would return). I think I read GRossano's argument to this fact and I thought he was right...

[Joesitz]

Not all elite level skaters have the same quality of skating skills, hence the reason why there is a wide disparity of scores (in the same way all Juvies or Intermediates have the same quality of skating skills). Skating skills have actual bullets that supposed to be judged/taken into account when scoring. If you go and watch skaters live, you can SEE the difference between what you might score a 4 and a 5 or between a 6 and a 7. The biggest problem with the PCS mark is that they are supposed to be independent but I think Mathman did a regression analysis and there's too much commonality across the scores to think that judges weigh each separately. Also, when the judges are asked to start with different components (start with TR instead of SS) the marks change.

There should not be that much disparity in the scores among Senior Elites. Yes, there is disparity in scores among Seniors and Novice, and rightfully so. When one talks about a contest where a skater is lagging behind, the question is how many points are needed to catch up with the lead skater who also has beautiful skating skills. Even if the former receives scores higher than his rival, there probably are many points also going to the rival.

One doesn't weigh or compare skaters in the CoP nor does it base its scores on the subjective quality. It should be quantifiable. It's not 6.0, but it could be nationality or favoritism.

[Joesitz]

What's the solution? More training for the judges? Choose a different component to present first on the judges' screens all the time or randomize them? Have some judges mark GOEs and Skating Skills and another set of judges mark the rest of the components?

To simplify the arguments of Skating Ability would be, in my estimation, to change the name to Basic Skills to cover speed and ice turns.

[gkelly]

There should not be that much disparity in the scores among Senior Elites.

Why not?

Let's say the minimum skating skill required or expected to qualify as a senior-level skater is somewhere around 4.0 or 4.5 or 5.0. If you can barely achieve that minimum, you're probably not going to make it to international competition if you come from a country with a lot skaters, or you're probably not going to make the cut for the long program at Worlds and might not make it at Euros or 4Cs either.

What if you achieved that minimum when you passed your senior tests or when you had the skate of your life at your national qualifying competition, but then when you get to the international stage you're nervous or injured or watered down the multidirectional and one-foot skating to give yourself more rests and a better chance of landing your jumps successfully?

But you still get to compete at senior B events, maybe at Worlds or Euros/4Cs if you're from a small country, maybe at your home GP event if you're a French or Chinese lady, etc.

So you will see some skaters in international senior competition who deserve Skating Skills marks in the 4s and even 3s, competing against the elite skaters.

Then you'll see a bunch of senior-level skaters who are reasonably solid senior-level skaters. They're almost always going to deserve at least 5.0 for skating skills and on a really good day might verge into the 6s. Some of these skaters can do all the triple jumps -- you'll even see quads sometimes from men with this skill level who happen to be talented jumpers. This is probably the majority of senior level competitors. Some of them -- whoever has a good day with the jumps -- will skate in the long program at Worlds or qualify for the Olympics. They're fighting for medals at the senior B events. Some of them might make top 10 at Euros/4Cs. Some of them will get invited to Grand Prix events. They're competing right up there with the elite of the elite, and if they happen to have a really good day at the same time an "elite" skater has a really bad day, they might even get to say they once beat a former/future world medalist, in a short program at least.

But they might achieve those results by landing a bunch of clean jumps. The quality of their actual skating is still only average for senior level and only deserves scores of 5-point-something.

Then you have a smaller number of skaters whose skating skills are better than average, but not exceptional, deserving scores in the 6-point-something range. They might be in and out of the top 10, on and off the GP or their countries' world/Euros/4Cs teams from year to year. Maybe some have strong technique but weak athleticism, or vice versa, which keeps them from joining the truly elite ranks. Maybe they can do difficult steps and turns with strong edges, but choose to keep their in-between skating simple because that's the only way they have enough energy to complete their program with all the jumps. We might call these the almost-elite group -- if they're still young, maybe they'll make their way to elite level in the near future.

And then you have the real elite skaters -- the ones who have the really strong skating skills deserving scores in the 7s or even 8s. When they can also land a bunch of jumps, they're in the hunt for medals.

And every so often, a skater stands out whose basic blade skills are even stronger than the rest of the elite skaters. If we're lucky, there might be more than one such skater, even a whole handful, competing at the same time. Other years, there might not be anyone at that level on the scene. But those are the skaters the 9+ scores are for, whenever they do come along and have a good day.

And when they have a bad day, they may still get some 8s, because they're still better at the particular types of skills judged in the Skating Skills mark than most of the other elite skaters, and definitely better than the almost-elite group.

[Bluebonnet]

Correct me if I'm wrong. After all these skating skills education, I concluded that those with high skating skills are those who can skate like ice dancers. Then they can easily have more transitions. It seems to me that skating skills generally are developed in pre-senior levels. I didn't see any skaters improve their skating skills greatly through out senior years. So once a skater has developed a certain skating skills level, he/she would probably stay in that level. Therefore, skaters like Patrick Chan would automatically, from the moment he jumped onto the senior scene, have higher skating skills and transition marks while skaters like Brian Joubert and Brandon Mroz would get the opposite.

So CoP is tailored for skaters like Patrick Chan.

[Mathman]

Correct me if I'm wrong. After all these skating skills education, I concluded that those with high skating skills are those who can skate like ice dancers. Then they can easily have more transitions. It seems to me that skating skills generally are developed in pre-senior levels. I didn't see any skaters improve their skating skills greatly through out senior years. So once a skater has developed a certain skating skills level, he/she would probably stay in that level. Therefore, skaters like Patrick Chan would automatically, from the moment he jumped onto the senior scene, have higher skating skills and transition marks while skaters like Brian Joubert and Brandon Mroz would get the opposite.

Still, it seems like it takes a while for judges to start noticing.

I just looked up Patricks PCS for his first couple of seasons in seniors. In 2006-07, at age sixteen he got fifth place at TEB with PCSs in the low sixes. Joubert won with PCSs in the mid sevens. (Another smoothie, Kozuka, finished 6th, with PCSs in the high 5's.)

At 2006-07 NHK he finished 7th with PCSs in the high 5's. Talkahashi and Oda got scores in the mid to high 7s, and Kozuka moved ahead of Patrick with PCSs in the mid to high 6's. (The Japanese fans were pleased; Patrick did not do Skate Canada that year. )

The next year was Patrick's big break-out season. At Skate America he got third behimd Takahashi and Lysacek. Chan's PCSs were in the low sevens. Lyasacek's PCSs ranged from 6.90 (transitions) to 7.80 (interpretation ). Lysacek beat Chan by 3 points in PCSs. Takahashi's PCSs were in the mid to high 7s.

Patrick won the 2007 Eric Bompard against a weak field overall. with PCSs in the low 7's.

So Patrick does seem to be getting better -- or at least the judges feel that he has paid his dues.

[gkelly]

Correct me if I'm wrong. After all these skating skills education, I concluded that those with high skating skills are those who can skate like ice dancers. Then they can easily have more transitions. It seems to me that skating skills generally are developed in pre-senior levels. I didn't see any skaters improve their skating skills greatly through out senior years.

I wouldn't necessarily say that. I've certainly seen skaters develop more (and more effortless) speed and deeper edges as they get more experience -- and in some cases as they finish growing. I saw a big difference in Michelle Kwan and Todd Eldredge, for example, between 1995 and 1997 seasons. With Kwan there was physical maturation involved. I also think the confidence of wearing the title "world champion" helped them both. And of course they had the basics skills down to begin with.

I thought Shelby Lyons and Jenny Kirk went from below-average basic skating skills, by world-class senior standards, when they first started in seniors to solidly average by the time they retired.

I could name some ice dancers I saw similar improvements from over the course of their senior careers, but that wouldn't be relevant to your point.

I haven't attended as many elite competitions in person recently to be able to give more recent examples.

So once a skater has developed a certain skating skills level, he/she would probably stay in that level. Therefore, skaters like Patrick Chan would automatically, from the moment he jumped onto the senior scene, have higher skating skills and transition marks while skaters like Brian Joubert and Brandon Mroz would get the opposite.

So CoP is tailored for skaters like Patrick Chan.

It's also hard to learn triple jumps after senior level, but those are pretty much required for a senior singles career.

Skaters who have talent for neither jumps nor skating skills will never make it to the elite level.

Those who are OK at jumps and good at skating can build their career in one direction, and those who are OK at skating and good at steps can take a different emphasis, whatever they can do to maximize their own strengths.

If they're great at skating and can't do difficult jumps at all, they can do ice dance. If they're great at difficult jumps and average or below at skating, they can compete singles but only earn good results when better skaters mess up.

The ones who are good or great at both can fight for medals.

Still, it seems like it takes a while for judges to start noticing.

. . . So Patrick does seem to be getting better -- or at least the judges feel that he has paid his dues.

Well, they were teenagers. I wonder how much a combination of physical maturation and skating with more confidence after gaining more experience allowed them to skate with even more speed and lean in those later events.

We could go back and watch videos of recent and 4-year-old competitions to see whether we see a difference. Of course it's impossible for anyone to compare live the same skater years apart.

[colleen o'neill]

This is a really fascinating , informative and thought provoking thread. So far , I judge that gkelly rules....I'm really appreciating your detailed breakdowns.

[seniorita]

Still, it seems like it takes a while for judges to start noticing.

And Buttle to retire

[janetfan]

Still, it seems like it takes a while for judges to start noticing.

So Patrick does seem to be getting better -- or at least the judges feel that he has paid his dues.

So with the same line of reasoning is it safe to assume Rippon is still paying his dues? And Javi too?
One thing good about 6.0 was that when a skater BOMBED their SP they were not held up the way we saw the CoP hold up Patrick.

But hasn't Oda paid his dues yet? I thought he won SC and nothing I have read in this thread about the CoP can change my views on that.

IMO "paid his dues" is nothing more than code for "reputation scoring."

Wasn't 6.0 criticized for that
And wasn't the shiny new IJS supposed to eliminate cheating , politics, favoritism and reputation scoring?

Perhaps it is moving in that direction but I am not holding my breath.

[Olympia]

This is a really fascinating , informative and thought provoking thread. So far , I judge that gkelly rules....I'm really appreciating your detailed breakdowns.

I was trying to figure out a way to say exactly this, Colleen, and then I came upon your post. You speak for me as well!

[Joesitz]

I think what gkelly is saying is that one can win on the one PC component - Skating Skills. Even if Patrick did have the best of the Skating Skills in that competition, does it imply that other skaters, notably Oda did not have excellent skating skills? I think not. When a poster resorts to 'the other things' and without mentioning other skaters as not having 'other things', it does not show the reason for a winner. Can 9.4 be that much better than 9.3? or is it just to hold up someone?

[Mathman]

So IMO "paid his dues" is nothing more than code for "reputation scoring."

Yes, that is just what it is. It takes a little while to build up your reputation to the point where the judges will consider giving you top marks. It was this way for 6.0, figures -- even Sonia Henie got last place at her first Olympics (age 11 ).

It is the same in any endeavor. You don't give a rookie quarterback the ball straight off even if he is better than the veteran.