Predictions - yes, I like to start early

[blue_idealist]

MEN

1) Jeremy Abbott - if he's clean. If there's any sort of fall, it'll go to PChiddy and his overrated skating skills, doesn't matter if he falls or not. Btw, don't take this as me hating on Patrick, just the fact that he's overscored.
2) Patrick Chan (see above)
3) Tomas Verner, or Javier Fernandez if Verner's evil twin shows up (his Eeyore.. you would have had to have seen his interview on CBC today to understand that one)

LADIES

1) Miki Ando
2) Ksenia Makarova
3) Probably Akiko Suzuki, but could be Alena Leonova or Ashley Wagner

PAIRS

1) Kavaguti/Smirnov
2) Evora/Ladwig, Lawrence/Swiegers, or Takahashi/Tran. I seriously can't pick. I also don't know who this Russian team is competing here.
3) Someone off the 2nd list who does not get 2nd.

DANCE

1) Bobrova/Soloviev
2) Faiella/Scali
3) This is hard to call.. either Paul/Islam, Hoffman/Zavozin, or Ilinykh/Katsalapov. I wouldn't be saying Paul/Islam if it wasn't for their high score at SC.

[sorcerer]

Loose (except one) predictions on singles:

Miki and Akiko will both medal.
One of the Russian girls will medal.
Val will mark her season's best.

Jeremy and Patric will both medal.
Favier will not win gold but will mark his personal best.
Yuzuru won't medal but will be 3rd in the SP.

[MikiAndoFan#1]

DANCE

1) Bobrova/Soloviev
2) Faiella/Scali

Bobrova & Soloviev beat Faiella & Scali at Cup of China just because of Federica's endless skirts!



Plus, Bobrova & Soloviev were a bit overscored and I don't expect them beating Faiella & Scali again.

[ImaginaryPogue]

B/S overscored? Why would that change with home ice advantage?

[MikiAndoFan#1]

B/S overscored?

Yes.

Why would that change with home ice advantage?

I'm not saying they aren't going to get home ice advantage, I just doubt they will beat Faiella & Scali if both couples skate clean.

[blue_idealist]

I don't get why some of the women wear long or heavy skirts. They should have learned that they might interfere with their programs!

[FTnoona]

Men
1 Chan
2 Abbott
3 ?

I think that even if Abbott skates clean, Chan is going to win. I just have the results of Skate Canada stuck in my head. I really don't know how third place is going to work out. Hehe...but I am a Hanyu shipper :D

[NMURA]

I'm curious how the away factor works out for Chan. He didn't gain any positive reputations at SC, and the judges should know the backlash. Expecting a good upset from Yuzushenko. However the 4th Japanese man in GPF may not be welcome. Abbott can't win without a quad, clean or not.

[dlgpffps]

He didn't gain any positive reputations at SC, and the judges should know the backlash.

That's an interesting way to think about it. So many people cried foul last time that the judges might toe the line in Russia if Patrick makes mistakes. But it's not like Patrick doesn't get great PCS outside of Canada. It's just that they get ridiculous back home.

Abbott can't win without a quad, clean or not.

Why? He has won GPs without quads before. He won the 2008 GPF without a quad. How many mistakes will Patrick have to make for a clean Jeremy (minus the quad) win?

[Bluebonnet]

I'm curious how the away factor works out for Chan. He didn't gain any positive reputations at SC, and the judges should know the backlash. Expecting a good upset from Yuzushenko. However the 4th Japanese man in GPF may not be welcome. Abbott can't win without a quad, clean or not.

I think Chan was well scored everywhere. It won't be an exception this time. So Chan will win. I tend to think that three fall situation was a one time thing. He won't have three falls this time again. Even if he falls on his quad, he will still win. Agree that Abbott needs a quad to even compete with Chan.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Doesn't Abbott have a quad?

Men
1. Patrick Chan (he does have room on PCS to err)
2. Jeremy Abbott (Less so, but he won't make the spin mistake again)
3. Javier Fernandez (Quad + reliable competitor)
4. Artur Gachinski (hometown bonus + quad + a desire to see a Russian skater vault up the standings this season)
5. Tomas Verner (lack of a quad will hurt him, along with his usual inconsistencies)

I'm presuming Borodulin is out due to injury.

Ladies
1. Miki Ando (Jumps, jumps and more jumps)
2. Ksenia Makarova (hometown skating + Suzuki is inconsistent, particularly in the short program)
3. Akiko Suzuki (if she's on, she'll challenge the top)
4. Alena Leonova (seems like she's on her way out, doesn't it? That said, few skaters have the 08/09 season she did, so credit to her)
5. Ashley Wagner (will she get left behind?)

Pairs
1. Kavaguti/Smirnov
2. Evora/Ladwig
3. Takahashi/Tran
4. Lawrence/Sweigers
5. Berton/Hotarek

Dance
1. Bobrova/Soloviev
2. Faiella/Scali
3. Ilynikh/Katsalpov
4. Gorshkova/Butikov
5. Paul/Islam

[fairly4]

men
1)patrick chan
2)jeremy abbot
3)arthu gachinskid
tomas verner and javier fernadez with a possible medal.

women
1)miki ando
2)alena leonova
3)ksenia markova
4)akiko suzuki-but these four can change around
possible outside shots--ashley, agnes and sofia
miki ando
alena leonova
ksenia markova
akkiko suzuki
with outside shots at a medal ashley wagner and possible agnes zadawazki and sofia

pairs
kavaguti/smirnoff 1st
paige sweigers 2nd
takahashi/tran 3rd
evora ladwig 4th.

dance
1)faillia/scali-boborova soliev fighing for 1st
3)ilinykh/katasalopov
possible medalist hoffman/zavozim, hubbell/hubbell, gorshikova/butikov and the cze team

[silverlake22]

Pairs
1. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV (RUS)
2. Narumi TAKAHASHI / Mervin TRAN (JPN)
3. Amanda EVORA / Mark LADWIG (USA)
4. Katarina GERBOLDT / Alexander ENBERT (RUS)
5. Stefania BERTON / Ondrej HOTAREK (ITA)
6. Paige LAWRENCE / Rudi SWIEGERS (CAN)

Men
1. Patrick CHAN (CAN) (If he's clean or if he falls 4 times...he'll still win)
2. Tomas VERNER (CZE) (If he brings the 4t he can totally be 2nd)
3. Jeremy ABBOTT (USA) (Boot issues make me nervous for him)
4. Javier FERNANDEZ (ESP) (Is on the upward swing)
5. Arthur GACHINSKI (RUS) (Hometown bonus will help his PCS)
6. Samuel CONTESTI (ITA) (Can likely hold off Machida, Preaubert if lands jumps)


Ladies
1. Miki ANDO (JPN) (Jumping demonstration #2, this time she'll prob do the 2a-3t tho)
2. Ksenia MAKAROVA (RUS) (Hometown PCS boost, strong jumper)
3. Ashley WAGNER (USA) (As long as she doesn't lay an egg like she did at NHK)
4. Agnes ZAWADZKI (USA) (She'll do better than SC but PCS will hold her OTP)
5. Alena LEONOVA (RUS) (Typical messy routines, hometown bonus will keep her afloat)
6. Akiko SUZUKI (JPN) (Not a clean SP than usual pops in the LP will get her here)



Dance
1. Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV (RUS)
2. Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI (ITA)
3. Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV (RUS)
4. Nora HOFFMANN / Maxim ZAVOZIN (HUN)
5. Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM (CAN)
6. Madison HUBBELL / Keiffer HUBBELL (USA)

[burntBREAD]

Pairs
1. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV (RUS)
2. Narumi TAKAHASHI / Mervin TRAN (JPN)
3. Amanda EVORA / Mark LADWIG (USA)
4. Katarina GERBOLDT / Alexander ENBERT (RUS)
5. Stefania BERTON / Ondrej HOTAREK (ITA)
6. Paige LAWRENCE / Rudi SWIEGERS (CAN)

Men
1. Patrick CHAN (CAN) (If he's clean or if he falls 4 times...he'll still win)
2. Tomas VERNER (CZE) (If he brings the 4t he can totally be 2nd)
3. Jeremy ABBOTT (USA) (Boot issues make me nervous for him)
4. Javier FERNANDEZ (ESP) (Is on the upward swing)
5. Arthur GACHINSKI (RUS) (Hometown bonus will help his PCS)
6. Samuel CONTESTI (ITA) (Can likely hold off Machida, Preaubert if lands jumps)


Ladies
1. Miki ANDO (JPN) (Jumping demonstration #2, this time she'll prob do the 2a-3t tho)
2. Ksenia MAKAROVA (RUS) (Hometown PCS boost, strong jumper)
3. Ashley WAGNER (USA) (As long as she doesn't lay an egg like she did at NHK)
4. Agnes ZAWADZKI (USA) (She'll do better than SC but PCS will hold her OTP)
5. Alena LEONOVA (RUS) (Typical messy routines, hometown bonus will keep her afloat)
6. Akiko SUZUKI (JPN) (Not a clean SP than usual pops in the LP will get her here)



Dance
1. Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV (RUS)
2. Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI (ITA)
3. Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV (RUS)
4. Nora HOFFMANN / Maxim ZAVOZIN (HUN)
5. Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM (CAN)
6. Madison HUBBELL / Keiffer HUBBELL (USA)

You really think Akiko's gonna be that low? At COC and most notably Finlandia (where she lacked a combo and popped a few jumps also), her scores were comparable to a clean Ksenia.

[NMURA]

Why? He has won GPs without quads before. He won the 2008 GPF without a quad. How many mistakes will Patrick have to make for a clean Jeremy (minus the quad) win?

I'm considering the effects of the rule change. We're into the new quad era. The efforts of Rippon or Verner aren't well received by the judges. Having the quad or not will affect the PCS too.

I think Chan was well scored everywhere. It won't be an exception this time. So Chan will win. I tend to think that three fall situation was a one time thing. He won't have three falls this time again. Even if he falls on his quad, he will still win. Agree that Abbott needs a quad to even compete with Chan.

"Scored well" is not enough. "Outrageously scored" is needed for him to win with those mistakes.