Predictions - yes, I like to start early | Golden Skate

Predictions - yes, I like to start early

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
MEN

1) Jeremy Abbott - if he's clean. If there's any sort of fall, it'll go to PChiddy and his overrated skating skills, doesn't matter if he falls or not. Btw, don't take this as me hating on Patrick, just the fact that he's overscored. :eek:hwell:
2) Patrick Chan (see above)
3) Tomas Verner, or Javier Fernandez if Verner's evil twin shows up (his Eeyore.. you would have had to have seen his interview on CBC today to understand that one)

LADIES

1) Miki Ando
2) Ksenia Makarova
3) Probably Akiko Suzuki, but could be Alena Leonova or Ashley Wagner

PAIRS

1) Kavaguti/Smirnov
2) Evora/Ladwig, Lawrence/Swiegers, or Takahashi/Tran. I seriously can't pick. I also don't know who this Russian team is competing here.
3) Someone off the 2nd list who does not get 2nd.

DANCE

1) Bobrova/Soloviev
2) Faiella/Scali
3) This is hard to call.. either Paul/Islam, Hoffman/Zavozin, or Ilinykh/Katsalapov. I wouldn't be saying Paul/Islam if it wasn't for their high score at SC.
 

sorcerer

Final Flight
Joined
May 1, 2007
Loose (except one) predictions on singles:

Miki and Akiko will both medal.
One of the Russian girls will medal.
Val will mark her season's best.

Jeremy and Patric will both medal.
Favier will not win gold but will mark his personal best.
Yuzuru won't medal but will be 3rd in the SP.
 

MikiAndoFan#1

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 30, 2009
DANCE

1) Bobrova/Soloviev
2) Faiella/Scali

Bobrova & Soloviev beat Faiella & Scali at Cup of China just because of Federica's endless skirts!

:laugh:

Plus, Bobrova & Soloviev were a bit overscored and I don't expect them beating Faiella & Scali again.
 

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
I don't get why some of the women wear long or heavy skirts. They should have learned that they might interfere with their programs!
 

FTnoona

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 26, 2009
Men
1 Chan
2 Abbott
3 ?

I think that even if Abbott skates clean, Chan is going to win. I just have the results of Skate Canada stuck in my head. I really don't know how third place is going to work out. Hehe...but I am a Hanyu shipper :D
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
I'm curious how the away factor works out for Chan. He didn't gain any positive reputations at SC, and the judges should know the backlash. Expecting a good upset from Yuzushenko. However the 4th Japanese man in GPF may not be welcome. Abbott can't win without a quad, clean or not.
 

dlgpffps

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
He didn't gain any positive reputations at SC, and the judges should know the backlash.

That's an interesting way to think about it. So many people cried foul last time that the judges might toe the line in Russia if Patrick makes mistakes. But it's not like Patrick doesn't get great PCS outside of Canada. It's just that they get ridiculous back home.

Abbott can't win without a quad, clean or not.

Why? He has won GPs without quads before. He won the 2008 GPF without a quad. How many mistakes will Patrick have to make for a clean Jeremy (minus the quad) win?
 

Bluebonnet

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
I'm curious how the away factor works out for Chan. He didn't gain any positive reputations at SC, and the judges should know the backlash. Expecting a good upset from Yuzushenko. However the 4th Japanese man in GPF may not be welcome. Abbott can't win without a quad, clean or not.

I think Chan was well scored everywhere. It won't be an exception this time. So Chan will win. I tend to think that three fall situation was a one time thing. He won't have three falls this time again. Even if he falls on his quad, he will still win. Agree that Abbott needs a quad to even compete with Chan.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Doesn't Abbott have a quad?

Men
1. Patrick Chan (he does have room on PCS to err)
2. Jeremy Abbott (Less so, but he won't make the spin mistake again)
3. Javier Fernandez (Quad + reliable competitor)
4. Artur Gachinski (hometown bonus + quad + a desire to see a Russian skater vault up the standings this season)
5. Tomas Verner (lack of a quad will hurt him, along with his usual inconsistencies)

I'm presuming Borodulin is out due to injury.

Ladies
1. Miki Ando (Jumps, jumps and more jumps)
2. Ksenia Makarova (hometown skating + Suzuki is inconsistent, particularly in the short program)
3. Akiko Suzuki (if she's on, she'll challenge the top)
4. Alena Leonova (seems like she's on her way out, doesn't it? That said, few skaters have the 08/09 season she did, so credit to her)
5. Ashley Wagner (will she get left behind?)

Pairs
1. Kavaguti/Smirnov
2. Evora/Ladwig
3. Takahashi/Tran
4. Lawrence/Sweigers
5. Berton/Hotarek

Dance
1. Bobrova/Soloviev
2. Faiella/Scali
3. Ilynikh/Katsalpov
4. Gorshkova/Butikov
5. Paul/Islam
 

fairly4

Medalist
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
men
1)patrick chan
2)jeremy abbot
3)arthu gachinskid
tomas verner and javier fernadez with a possible medal.

women
1)miki ando
2)alena leonova
3)ksenia markova
4)akiko suzuki-but these four can change around
possible outside shots--ashley, agnes and sofia
miki ando
alena leonova
ksenia markova
akkiko suzuki
with outside shots at a medal ashley wagner and possible agnes zadawazki and sofia

pairs
kavaguti/smirnoff 1st
paige sweigers 2nd
takahashi/tran 3rd
evora ladwig 4th.

dance
1)faillia/scali-boborova soliev fighing for 1st
3)ilinykh/katasalopov
possible medalist hoffman/zavozim, hubbell/hubbell, gorshikova/butikov and the cze team
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Pairs
1. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV (RUS)
2. Narumi TAKAHASHI / Mervin TRAN (JPN)
3. Amanda EVORA / Mark LADWIG (USA)
4. Katarina GERBOLDT / Alexander ENBERT (RUS)
5. Stefania BERTON / Ondrej HOTAREK (ITA)
6. Paige LAWRENCE / Rudi SWIEGERS (CAN)

Men
1. Patrick CHAN (CAN) (If he's clean or if he falls 4 times...he'll still win)
2. Tomas VERNER (CZE) (If he brings the 4t he can totally be 2nd)
3. Jeremy ABBOTT (USA) (Boot issues make me nervous for him)
4. Javier FERNANDEZ (ESP) (Is on the upward swing)
5. Arthur GACHINSKI (RUS) (Hometown bonus will help his PCS)
6. Samuel CONTESTI (ITA) (Can likely hold off Machida, Preaubert if lands jumps)


Ladies
1. Miki ANDO (JPN) (Jumping demonstration #2, this time she'll prob do the 2a-3t tho)
2. Ksenia MAKAROVA (RUS) (Hometown PCS boost, strong jumper)
3. Ashley WAGNER (USA) (As long as she doesn't lay an egg like she did at NHK)
4. Agnes ZAWADZKI (USA) (She'll do better than SC but PCS will hold her OTP)
5. Alena LEONOVA (RUS) (Typical messy routines, hometown bonus will keep her afloat)
6. Akiko SUZUKI (JPN) (Not a clean SP than usual pops in the LP will get her here)



Dance
1. Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV (RUS)
2. Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI (ITA)
3. Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV (RUS)
4. Nora HOFFMANN / Maxim ZAVOZIN (HUN)
5. Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM (CAN)
6. Madison HUBBELL / Keiffer HUBBELL (USA)
 

burntBREAD

Medalist
Joined
Mar 27, 2010
Pairs
1. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV (RUS)
2. Narumi TAKAHASHI / Mervin TRAN (JPN)
3. Amanda EVORA / Mark LADWIG (USA)
4. Katarina GERBOLDT / Alexander ENBERT (RUS)
5. Stefania BERTON / Ondrej HOTAREK (ITA)
6. Paige LAWRENCE / Rudi SWIEGERS (CAN)

Men
1. Patrick CHAN (CAN) (If he's clean or if he falls 4 times...he'll still win)
2. Tomas VERNER (CZE) (If he brings the 4t he can totally be 2nd)
3. Jeremy ABBOTT (USA) (Boot issues make me nervous for him)
4. Javier FERNANDEZ (ESP) (Is on the upward swing)
5. Arthur GACHINSKI (RUS) (Hometown bonus will help his PCS)
6. Samuel CONTESTI (ITA) (Can likely hold off Machida, Preaubert if lands jumps)


Ladies
1. Miki ANDO (JPN) (Jumping demonstration #2, this time she'll prob do the 2a-3t tho)
2. Ksenia MAKAROVA (RUS) (Hometown PCS boost, strong jumper)
3. Ashley WAGNER (USA) (As long as she doesn't lay an egg like she did at NHK)
4. Agnes ZAWADZKI (USA) (She'll do better than SC but PCS will hold her OTP)
5. Alena LEONOVA (RUS) (Typical messy routines, hometown bonus will keep her afloat)
6. Akiko SUZUKI (JPN) (Not a clean SP than usual pops in the LP will get her here)



Dance
1. Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV (RUS)
2. Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI (ITA)
3. Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV (RUS)
4. Nora HOFFMANN / Maxim ZAVOZIN (HUN)
5. Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM (CAN)
6. Madison HUBBELL / Keiffer HUBBELL (USA)

You really think Akiko's gonna be that low? At COC and most notably Finlandia (where she lacked a combo and popped a few jumps also), her scores were comparable to a clean Ksenia.
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
Why? He has won GPs without quads before. He won the 2008 GPF without a quad. How many mistakes will Patrick have to make for a clean Jeremy (minus the quad) win?

I'm considering the effects of the rule change. We're into the new quad era. The efforts of Rippon or Verner aren't well received by the judges. Having the quad or not will affect the PCS too.

I think Chan was well scored everywhere. It won't be an exception this time. So Chan will win. I tend to think that three fall situation was a one time thing. He won't have three falls this time again. Even if he falls on his quad, he will still win. Agree that Abbott needs a quad to even compete with Chan.

"Scored well" is not enough. "Outrageously scored" is needed for him to win with those mistakes.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
You really think Akiko's gonna be that low? At COC and most notably Finlandia (where she lacked a combo and popped a few jumps also), her scores were comparable to a clean Ksenia.

I think Akiko will suffer from her inability to do a clean SP. Also her PCS seem variable, they were pretty high at CoC, but could also drop easily to what they were last season. Ksenia and Agnes are usually very consistent with jumps so that's why I put them ahead, they are also known to skate clean SPs. Being in Russia should also help Ksenia and Alena for that matter. Ashley I just sort of threw in there, idk what she will do, but the scores Akiko has put up so far this season are nothing Ashley can't match/top. I wouldn't be surprised if the scores were very close among the top 6 just considering how most of the skaters are strong and pretty comparable.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
I think Akiko will suffer from her inability to do a clean SP. Also her PCS seem variable, they were pretty high at CoC, but could also drop easily to what they were last season. Ksenia and Agnes are usually very consistent with jumps so that's why I put them ahead, they are also known to skate clean SPs. Being in Russia should also help Ksenia and Alena for that matter. Ashley I just sort of threw in there, idk what she will do, but the scores Akiko has put up so far this season are nothing Ashley can't match/top. I wouldn't be surprised if the scores were very close among the top 6 just considering how most of the skaters are strong and pretty comparable.

All the scores in the GP series this year have been low though so I'm not sure we can really say one way or another what Akiko's scores mean. I see Akiko on the podium and she could surprise and win if Miki struggles. I don't know, I think this one is pretty unpredictable. I see Miki and Ksenia and Akiko as medalling if they are clean but we'll see.

Curious to see if Agnes and Ashley can improve on her their first GP outings. I think it was nerves for Agnes at Skate Canada but I wonder about Ashley. Maybe her training had just gotten off to a slow start. But I really hate Malaguena for her. I know I said something similar about Carmen for Mirai last year and I came around... but my concerns about Malaguena and Ashley more serious. I think Ashley really loves skating and she has some great qualities but she needs to find a style that makes her stick out from the crowd more.
 

Trewyn

Medalist
Joined
Dec 10, 2008
^^Yeah I'm very disappointed about Ashley's programs this year as well. The recycled OUATIA program isn't bad but I'm just disappointed because it's recycled; and Malaguena didn't excite me either. I do think due to illness Ashley's training the last month or so before the GP hadn't been ideal but we'll have to wait and see how she holds up at RC. She definitely has the scoring potential to medal and possibly even win if Miki makes mistakes. Personally; my gut feeling says Miki has this one in the bag. Akiko is amazing and due to her great musicality her PCS potential is high and she should make the podium if she lands enough jumps. Then of course we have to assume a Russian girl is going to be taking the podium; I see Makarova as more consistent then Leonova; her jumps are cleaner too; Leonova always has a ton of step-outs, fall-outs, two-foots etc. But for some reason the judges like Leonova and her scoring potential is pretty high.

My dream podium:
1. Ashley
2. Akiko
3. Ksenia or Miki

Prediction:
1. Miki
2. Ksenia
3. Akiko
4. Ashley
5. Alena

I wouldn't be surprised if the scores were very close among the top 6 just considering how most of the skaters are strong and pretty comparable.

Yep. I agree. Except that a clean Miki could receive some 'ex world champion' boost and distance herself from the rest of the field.
 
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silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Yep. I agree. Except that a clean Miki could receive some 'ex world champion' boost and distance herself from the rest of the field.

I think so too. I also agree about Ashley's programs, if she was going to recycle a program, I wish it had been her Prince Igor LP and not her old SP, which I didn't like that much. Further I think Malaguena should never be used for a LP, it's too repetitive. If she can skate well though he programs might not matter much.

In terms of Akiko's scores, I just meant that looking at the past season, Akiko hasn't put up any monstrous numbers that Ksenia couldn't dream of achieving at this point like someone like Yuna has.
 

siberia82

Addicted to Canadian men's singles skating
Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 18, 2008
Country
Canada
My prediction for the men's:

1. Chan
2. Abbott
3. Verner

4-6 would consist of Fernandez, Gachinksi, Hanyu (not necessarily in that order).
 
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