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Thread: Coming Close to the the GP Finals

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Lightbulb Coming Close to the the GP Finals

    With 2 more events to go, I can see some skaters who will make the finals and others are iffy.

    Ladies - No doubt about Kostner, Murakami and Flatt.
    With 2 more events: Czisny and Ando looking good. Makarova and Suzuki hanging in there, and maybe Leonova. The very iffis: Phaneuf, Korpi, Nagasu. Wagner needs a prayer and a Win.

    Men - Takahashi, Oda are definites. Strong possibilities: Kozuka, Abbott, Mroz. Good possibilities: Verner, Amodio. Less but Alive possibilities: Reynolds, Joubert, Hanyu.

    Pairs - Definites are Pang/Tong; Moore/Moskovitch; Probables:Illushkina/Maisuradze, Sui/Han. More than Likely: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Bazaranova/Larionov. Hopefuls: Lawrence Schweigers, Takahashi/Tram.

    Ice Dance - Definites: Davis/White; Crone/Poirier. Good possibilities: Pechalat/Borzat, Bobrova/Soloviev, Faiella/Scali, Chock/Zurlein. And there are a few others which need a prayer and a win.

    Getting to the Finals is tough - a lot of it based on entrants, but here it is right now coming down the wire. For the competition, I am hoping for scores that are comensurate for what shows on the ice, and not for Reputation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    For the competition, I am hoping for scores that are comensurate for what shows on the ice, and not for Reputation.
    Haha. Good luck with that.

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    what about Chan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    With 2 more events to go, I can see some skaters who will make the finals and others are iffy.

    Ladies - No doubt about Kostner, Murakami and Flatt.
    With 2 more events: Czisny and Ando looking good. Makarova and Suzuki hanging in there, and maybe Leonova. The very iffis: Phaneuf, Korpi, Nagasu. Wagner needs a prayer and a Win.

    Men - Takahashi, Oda are definites. Strong possibilities: Kozuka, Abbott, Mroz. Good possibilities: Verner, Amodio. Less but Alive possibilities: Reynolds, Joubert, Hanyu.

    Pairs - Definites are Pang/Tong; Moore/Moskovitch; Probables:Illushkina/Maisuradze, Sui/Han. More than Likely: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Bazaranova/Larionov. Hopefuls: Lawrence Schweigers, Takahashi/Tram.

    Ice Dance - Definites: Davis/White; Crone/Poirier. Good possibilities: Pechalat/Borzat, Bobrova/Soloviev, Faiella/Scali, Chock/Zurlein. And there are a few others which need a prayer and a win.

    Getting to the Finals is tough - a lot of it based on entrants, but here it is right now coming down the wire. For the competition, I am hoping for scores that are comensurate for what shows on the ice, and not for Reputation.
    what about Chan ?

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    I'd say Leonova is more iffy than Nagasu at this point. The field at TEB isn't that deep (or maybe unpredictable is more the right word?) and Mirai has a good shot at winning there. OTOH, the field at COR is pretty deep, and more reliable, and I can't see Leonova finishing higher than 3rd barring the unexpected. Even if she manages to get bronze there, which seems unlikely considering she has Ando, Suzuki, Makarova, and Wagner as competition, that likely won't be enough.

    As for Alissa, she probably needs to place 4th at TEB. This is tricky because the field is unpredictable, if she skates well she could win but if she doesn't she could easily be like 6th, behind Asada, Nagasu, Phanuef, Korpi, and Imai. So let's just hope her evil twin doesn't show up.
    Last edited by silverlake22; 11-15-2010 at 01:44 PM.

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    Trixie Schuba's biggest fan! blue dog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    So let's just hope her evil twin doesn't show up.
    LoL Remember, that Alissa has an actual twin!

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gottadance View Post
    what about Chan ?
    OOPS. After all the discussion, how could I slip up on Patrick. He is strong possibility.

    I would suggest those interested in the Finals to go to the ISU web site and click on the GP Standings. There are many elite skaters still to compete in either Teb or Rostel.

    The skaters are no longer getting their feet wet. The Finalists want GOLD.

    I hope Doris gives a short rundown on the Finalists dancers.

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    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Okay Joe-Davis & White and Crone & Poirier will surely make the GPF.

    Pechalat & Bourzat will almost surely win TEB, because the field there is very weak, giving them 30 points. They are the only remaining team with a 2nd event pending who have a win.

    Two teams have a 2nd place finish, Kerrs, who have withdrawn from the series, and Bobrova & Soloviev.

    If B&S score as high as 4th, with over 283.91 for a total score, they will displace both W&P and the Shibutanis. In fact, my guess is that they could win, place or show; any way they make the final.

    Of teams with 11 points, Faiella & Scali and Chock & Zuerlein stand the best chance. F&S were low because of 2 freak skirt accidents at Cup of China. Their programs are interesting, too. OToh, Cup of Russia is packed with young, up and coming talent. Paul & Islam (9 pts), I&K (9 points),and Hoffman & Zavozin (9 points) will all be there. If any of them displaces either F&S or B&S for 2nd, they will bump the Shibutanis, and perhaps W&P if they have enough total points. This is possible, but not likely. B&S have the best result, and the highest total score of these contenders for 2nd.

    Of those who have already skated, the following are on the bubble:
    W&P with 22 points. The first tie breaker is highest finish, which for them was second.
    Shibutanis 22 points, both 3rds. The second tie break is total score; they have 281.74.

    So my guess is that after CoR,
    Davis & White
    Crone & Poirier
    Faiella & Scali
    Bobrova & Soloviev

    will have clinched spots. That leaves 1 spot open, given that P&B are pretty much a lock at TEB.

    TEB is an extraordinarily weak field. Teams that could land on the podium there are C&Z, Carron & Jones, and Riazanova & Tkachenko. Of those, only C&Z could displace W&P from the GPF without a tie break. They would have to finish 2nd to do it, because the 2nd place at NHK is W&P's tie breaker. If C&Z finish 2nd, they are in, no tie breaker needed. Their SC score was 139.05, more than their near competitors at their events. If they finish 3rd or lower, & C/J aren't second, W&P make the final. If C/J are second, their total score has to beat W/P, again not likely. So the likelihood is that the Shibutanis don't make the GPF, but end up first alternate.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 11-15-2010 at 10:43 PM.

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    Thanks, Doris! Could you repost what you wrote in the GP Final subforum? Link to the Ice Dance Prospects thread: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...ance-Prospects

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    I'd say Leonova is more iffy than Nagasu at this point. The field at TEB isn't that deep (or maybe unpredictable is more the right word?) and Mirai has a good shot at winning there. OTOH, the field at COR is pretty deep, and more reliable, and I can't see Leonova finishing higher than 3rd barring the unexpected. Even if she manages to get bronze there, which seems unlikely considering she has Ando, Suzuki, Makarova, and Wagner as competition, that likely won't be enough.
    Leonova has the better chance than Nagasu. Following four ladies are likely to place above them on the GP standings.

    Ando 1 + 1 (likely)
    Kostner 1 + 3
    Murakami 3 + 1
    Flatt 2 + 2

    If Leonova wins COR, she makes the Final regardless of the others. But for Nagasu, just winning TEB isn't enough. If Makarova or Suzuki placed 2nd in Russia, Nagasu will fight for the final spot with Czisny. In that case, Nagasu must win AND Czisny places lower than 5th at TEB, or Nagasu must tie with Czisny on GP points and make up the deficit of 26 points.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    Leonova has the better chance than Nagasu. Following four ladies are likely to place above them on the GP standings.

    Ando 1 + 1 (likely)
    Kostner 1 + 3
    Murakami 3 + 1
    Flatt 2 + 2

    If Leonova wins COR, she makes the Final regardless of the others. But for Nagasu, just winning TEB isn't enough. If Makarova or Suzuki placed 2nd in Russia, Nagasu will fight for the final spot with Czisny. In that case, Nagasu must win AND Czisny places lower than 5th at TEB, or Nagasu must tie with Czisny on GP points and make up the deficit of 26 points.
    I guess in theory, but if you look at the field for COR, if everyone skates up to their potential, Leonova will be like 6th. I think there's no way she wins the event, she won't get the PCS, her spins are blah, she can't even do a real lutz, and she's just messy overall. She has an outside shot at bronze but that won't get her to the final.

    Nagasu was 4th at CoC, but 26 points is a big deficit, BUT if Alissa places 5th at TEB (which she likely will if she skates like she did at sectionals) and Mirai wins, then Mirai goes and Alissa doesn't. Mirai scored 190+ at the Olympics last season and scored 70+ in the SP at Worlds, she totally can win in France and as for Alissa, it's a tough field and she's inconsistent, she could even finish lower than 5th considering the depth of the field.

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    In theory, there are more cases unfavorbale for Nagasu. Even if Leonova doesn't win, Nagasu's chance could become almost nil before TEB. Ando usually skates well at the first GP event than the second. Last year, Leonova has almost beaten Ando at NHK Trophy. Perhaps Makarova has the better chance at home. Suzuki must be feeling the heat from Murakami and exert more efforts. In the following case, Czisny must place the 3rd or above just to qualify. Even Flatt could be out depending on Suzuki's score.

    Makarova 2 + 1
    Suzuki 2 + 2
    Ando 1 + 3

  12. #12
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    No, I agree with Silverlake. Obviously, Mirai and Alena both have big uphill battles to make the final and they have to pull off some spectacular skating. Mirai is capable of that. Alena not so much. She does have the hometown advantage, though, that's something. But I can't see her winning. It's not impossible but Ksenia and Miki are just better than her. Akiko, in my opinion, too but judges seem ambivalent about her and it seems to change each competition. I wouldn't be surprised if the judges preferred Alena at Cup of Russia so Akiko really needs to not pop every other jump... Still, as Silverlake notes, Alena needs to win and it's a longshot.

    So Alissa skated badly at sectionals?? Groan. :sheesh:
    Last edited by Layfan; 11-16-2010 at 12:53 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    No, I agree with Silverlake. Obviously, Mirai and Alena both have big uphill battles to make the final and they have to pull off some spectacular skating. Mirai is capable of that. Alena not so much.
    Leonova qualifies if she wins. Nagasu needs more than that. That's a big difference. In this case, Leonova qualifies even with a silver. Very possible!

    Ando 1 + 1
    Kostner 1 + 3
    Murakami 3 + 1
    Flatt 2 + 2
    Makarova(Suzuki) 2 + 3
    Leonova 3 + 2
    --------------
    Nagasu 4 + 2
    Korpi 4 + 3
    Phaneuf 4 + 4
    Czisny 1 + 5

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    other unfavorable data for Nagasu...

    It's extremely exceptional to win a gold for the first GP medal.

    Gold
    Meier (2006)

    Silver
    Kwan (1994*), Lipinski (1996), Suguri (1998), Soldatova (1998), Volchkova (1999), Onda (2001), Kostner (2003), Phaneuf (2004), Czisny (2005), Asada (2005), Meissner (2006), Flatt (2008), Suzuki (2008), Korpi (2009), Makarova (2010)

    Bronze
    Slutskaya (1995), Sokolova (1997), Nikodinov (1998), S. Hughes (1999), Kirk (2000), Cohen (2001), Poykio (2002), Arakawa (2002), Sebestyen (2003), Ando (2004), Rochette (2004), Nakano (2005), Kim (2006), E. Hughes (2006), Zhang (2007), Wagner (2007), Takeda (2007), Lepisto (2008), Leonova (2009), Murakami (2010), Lacoste (2010)

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    My predictions for ladies.

    Ando wins handily in Russia, Makarova with the home court advantage edges Suzuki for second.

    Mao Asada wins TEB, knocking out Nagasu (2nd), Phaneuf and Korpi. Alissa gets third and makes the finals.

    Ando 30
    Kostner 26 (1&3)
    Murakami 26 (1&3)
    Czinsy 26 (1&3)
    Flatt 26 (2&2)
    Makarova 26 (2&2)

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