Dai, the only sure one to make the Finals.
Nobi, with two silver medals (not unlike Rachael) will have to watch Chan and Kozuka both of whom also have 15 each and are in two different comps for their second. Nobi will battle it out with Abbott and Mroz. What we have now is:
1. Dai, already in GPF
2. Chan (15 pts.) Russia
3. Kozuka (15 pts.) France
4. Abbott (13 pts.) Russia
5. Mroz (13 pts.) France
6. Verner (11 pts.) Russia
7. Amodio (11 pts.) France
8. Reynolds (9 pts.) France
9. Joubert (9 pts.) France
10. Hanyu (9 pts.) France
I believe with luck, all of them have a chance at being in the GPF, but 4 of them won't make it. Your guess, is as good as mine.
I don't think Reynolds and Hanyu really have a chance. If they could only finish 4th in their home events, I doubt they will do well enough in France/Russia (Hanyu will be competing in Russia rather than France, btw, Joe). I predict that Mroz is off the podium in France as well and out of the GPF.
Joubert will rally to win in France and make the GPF. Kozuka will come 2nd and also make the GPF. Amodio will come 3rd and miss out.
In Russia, Patrick Chan will win and make the GPF. Jeremy Abbott will place 2nd and make the GPF. Tomas Verner will place 3rd and miss out.
Amodio and Verner will both have two Bronzes and yet they will both miss the GPF. Two Bronzes just isn't enough. The only way one of them makes it to the GPF like that is if Abbott is less than 4th in Russia (unlikely) or Joubert is lower than 2nd in France (possible, but I doubt it...Joubert skates best in these kinds of situations where he is trying to regain his reputation).
I don't know if this is a reflection on me or not but is it bad that I always look at "Reynolds" whenever it appears in a post and go, "Hmm. Who's that again?"
As for COR, I'm not convinced Abbott will beat Verner, they always get very similar PCS and at their first events they put up nearly identical scores. To me it's a toss up as to who will best the other in Russia, and considering they both are inconsistent, there's a chance neither will end up on the podium. Also, if Chan pulls a SC again I'm not sure he'll be able to win if Abbott and/or Verner skate well.
Also, re Verner and Amodio, if they both place 2nd at their next event, which is definitely possible, then they likely will both make the GPF, right? Or is a bronze and a silver still not enough?
The opinions are there ^^^, and why not? However, the Slippery Sport rule applies.
Spunky Reynolds will hit his quads, and successfully skate clean. Will it matter with little reputation?
Jovial Joubert will impress his home town with solid Quads, and be himself. Will it be enough?
Danseur Hanyu will audition for the Paris Opera Ballet, but will he be ignored in TEB?
It ain't over till it's over.
LOL, I wasn't criticizing you!
I think that's the first time I've seen you use an eye-roll emoticon.