Coming Close to the the GP Finals | Golden Skate

Coming Close to the the GP Finals

Joined
Jul 11, 2003
With 2 more events to go, I can see some skaters who will make the finals and others are iffy.

Ladies - No doubt about Kostner, Murakami and Flatt.
With 2 more events: Czisny and Ando looking good. Makarova and Suzuki hanging in there, and maybe Leonova. The very iffis: Phaneuf, Korpi, Nagasu. Wagner needs a prayer and a Win.

Men - Takahashi, Oda are definites. Strong possibilities: Kozuka, Abbott, Mroz. Good possibilities: Verner, Amodio. Less but Alive possibilities: Reynolds, Joubert, Hanyu.

Pairs - Definites are Pang/Tong; Moore/Moskovitch; Probables:Illushkina/Maisuradze, Sui/Han. More than Likely: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Bazaranova/Larionov. Hopefuls: Lawrence Schweigers, Takahashi/Tram.

Ice Dance - Definites: Davis/White; Crone/Poirier. Good possibilities: Pechalat/Borzat, Bobrova/Soloviev, Faiella/Scali, Chock/Zurlein. And there are a few others which need a prayer and a win.

Getting to the Finals is tough - a lot of it based on entrants, but here it is right now coming down the wire. For the competition, I am hoping for scores that are comensurate for what shows on the ice, and not for Reputation.
 

gottadance

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 27, 2009
what about Chan?

With 2 more events to go, I can see some skaters who will make the finals and others are iffy.

Ladies - No doubt about Kostner, Murakami and Flatt.
With 2 more events: Czisny and Ando looking good. Makarova and Suzuki hanging in there, and maybe Leonova. The very iffis: Phaneuf, Korpi, Nagasu. Wagner needs a prayer and a Win.

Men - Takahashi, Oda are definites. Strong possibilities: Kozuka, Abbott, Mroz. Good possibilities: Verner, Amodio. Less but Alive possibilities: Reynolds, Joubert, Hanyu.

Pairs - Definites are Pang/Tong; Moore/Moskovitch; Probables:Illushkina/Maisuradze, Sui/Han. More than Likely: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Bazaranova/Larionov. Hopefuls: Lawrence Schweigers, Takahashi/Tram.

Ice Dance - Definites: Davis/White; Crone/Poirier. Good possibilities: Pechalat/Borzat, Bobrova/Soloviev, Faiella/Scali, Chock/Zurlein. And there are a few others which need a prayer and a win.

Getting to the Finals is tough - a lot of it based on entrants, but here it is right now coming down the wire. For the competition, I am hoping for scores that are comensurate for what shows on the ice, and not for Reputation.

what about Chan ?
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I'd say Leonova is more iffy than Nagasu at this point. The field at TEB isn't that deep (or maybe unpredictable is more the right word?) and Mirai has a good shot at winning there. OTOH, the field at COR is pretty deep, and more reliable, and I can't see Leonova finishing higher than 3rd barring the unexpected. Even if she manages to get bronze there, which seems unlikely considering she has Ando, Suzuki, Makarova, and Wagner as competition, that likely won't be enough.

As for Alissa, she probably needs to place 4th at TEB. This is tricky because the field is unpredictable, if she skates well she could win but if she doesn't she could easily be like 6th, behind Asada, Nagasu, Phanuef, Korpi, and Imai. So let's just hope her evil twin doesn't show up.
 
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Joined
Jul 11, 2003
what about Chan ?
OOPS. After all the discussion, how could I slip up on Patrick. He is strong possibility.

I would suggest those interested in the Finals to go to the ISU web site and click on the GP Standings. There are many elite skaters still to compete in either Teb or Rostel.

The skaters are no longer getting their feet wet. The Finalists want GOLD.

I hope Doris gives a short rundown on the Finalists dancers.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
Okay Joe-Davis & White and Crone & Poirier will surely make the GPF.

Pechalat & Bourzat will almost surely win TEB, because the field there is very weak, giving them 30 points. They are the only remaining team with a 2nd event pending who have a win.

Two teams have a 2nd place finish, Kerrs, who have withdrawn from the series, and Bobrova & Soloviev.

If B&S score as high as 4th, with over 283.91 for a total score, they will displace both W&P and the Shibutanis. In fact, my guess is that they could win, place or show; any way they make the final.

Of teams with 11 points, Faiella & Scali and Chock & Zuerlein stand the best chance. F&S were low because of 2 freak skirt accidents at Cup of China. Their programs are interesting, too. OToh, Cup of Russia is packed with young, up and coming talent. Paul & Islam (9 pts), I&K (9 points),and Hoffman & Zavozin (9 points) will all be there. If any of them displaces either F&S or B&S for 2nd, they will bump the Shibutanis, and perhaps W&P if they have enough total points. This is possible, but not likely. B&S have the best result, and the highest total score of these contenders for 2nd.

Of those who have already skated, the following are on the bubble:
W&P with 22 points. The first tie breaker is highest finish, which for them was second.
Shibutanis 22 points, both 3rds. The second tie break is total score; they have 281.74.

So my guess is that after CoR,
Davis & White
Crone & Poirier
Faiella & Scali
Bobrova & Soloviev

will have clinched spots. That leaves 1 spot open, given that P&B are pretty much a lock at TEB.

TEB is an extraordinarily weak field. Teams that could land on the podium there are C&Z, Carron & Jones, and Riazanova & Tkachenko. Of those, only C&Z could displace W&P from the GPF without a tie break. They would have to finish 2nd to do it, because the 2nd place at NHK is W&P's tie breaker. If C&Z finish 2nd, they are in, no tie breaker needed. Their SC score was 139.05, more than their near competitors at their events. If they finish 3rd or lower, & C/J aren't second, W&P make the final. If C/J are second, their total score has to beat W/P, again not likely. So the likelihood is that the Shibutanis don't make the GPF, but end up first alternate.
 
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NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
I'd say Leonova is more iffy than Nagasu at this point. The field at TEB isn't that deep (or maybe unpredictable is more the right word?) and Mirai has a good shot at winning there. OTOH, the field at COR is pretty deep, and more reliable, and I can't see Leonova finishing higher than 3rd barring the unexpected. Even if she manages to get bronze there, which seems unlikely considering she has Ando, Suzuki, Makarova, and Wagner as competition, that likely won't be enough.

Leonova has the better chance than Nagasu. Following four ladies are likely to place above them on the GP standings.

Ando 1 + 1 (likely)
Kostner 1 + 3
Murakami 3 + 1
Flatt 2 + 2

If Leonova wins COR, she makes the Final regardless of the others. But for Nagasu, just winning TEB isn't enough. If Makarova or Suzuki placed 2nd in Russia, Nagasu will fight for the final spot with Czisny. In that case, Nagasu must win AND Czisny places lower than 5th at TEB, or Nagasu must tie with Czisny on GP points and make up the deficit of 26 points.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Leonova has the better chance than Nagasu. Following four ladies are likely to place above them on the GP standings.

Ando 1 + 1 (likely)
Kostner 1 + 3
Murakami 3 + 1
Flatt 2 + 2

If Leonova wins COR, she makes the Final regardless of the others. But for Nagasu, just winning TEB isn't enough. If Makarova or Suzuki placed 2nd in Russia, Nagasu will fight for the final spot with Czisny. In that case, Nagasu must win AND Czisny places lower than 5th at TEB, or Nagasu must tie with Czisny on GP points and make up the deficit of 26 points.

I guess in theory, but if you look at the field for COR, if everyone skates up to their potential, Leonova will be like 6th. I think there's no way she wins the event, she won't get the PCS, her spins are blah, she can't even do a real lutz, and she's just messy overall. She has an outside shot at bronze but that won't get her to the final.

Nagasu was 4th at CoC, but 26 points is a big deficit, BUT if Alissa places 5th at TEB (which she likely will if she skates like she did at sectionals) and Mirai wins, then Mirai goes and Alissa doesn't. Mirai scored 190+ at the Olympics last season and scored 70+ in the SP at Worlds, she totally can win in France and as for Alissa, it's a tough field and she's inconsistent, she could even finish lower than 5th considering the depth of the field.
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
In theory, there are more cases unfavorbale for Nagasu. Even if Leonova doesn't win, Nagasu's chance could become almost nil before TEB. Ando usually skates well at the first GP event than the second. Last year, Leonova has almost beaten Ando at NHK Trophy. Perhaps Makarova has the better chance at home. Suzuki must be feeling the heat from Murakami and exert more efforts. In the following case, Czisny must place the 3rd or above just to qualify. Even Flatt could be out depending on Suzuki's score.

Makarova 2 + 1
Suzuki 2 + 2
Ando 1 + 3
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
No, I agree with Silverlake. Obviously, Mirai and Alena both have big uphill battles to make the final and they have to pull off some spectacular skating. Mirai is capable of that. Alena not so much. She does have the hometown advantage, though, that's something. But I can't see her winning. It's not impossible but Ksenia and Miki are just better than her. Akiko, in my opinion, too but judges seem ambivalent about her and it seems to change each competition. I wouldn't be surprised if the judges preferred Alena at Cup of Russia so Akiko really needs to not pop every other jump... Still, as Silverlake notes, Alena needs to win and it's a longshot.

So Alissa skated badly at sectionals?? Groan. :sheesh:
 
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NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
No, I agree with Silverlake. Obviously, Mirai and Alena both have big uphill battles to make the final and they have to pull off some spectacular skating. Mirai is capable of that. Alena not so much.

Leonova qualifies if she wins. Nagasu needs more than that. That's a big difference. In this case, Leonova qualifies even with a silver. Very possible!

Ando 1 + 1
Kostner 1 + 3
Murakami 3 + 1
Flatt 2 + 2
Makarova(Suzuki) 2 + 3
Leonova 3 + 2
--------------
Nagasu 4 + 2
Korpi 4 + 3
Phaneuf 4 + 4
Czisny 1 + 5
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
other unfavorable data for Nagasu...

It's extremely exceptional to win a gold for the first GP medal.

Gold
Meier (2006)

Silver
Kwan (1994*), Lipinski (1996), Suguri (1998), Soldatova (1998), Volchkova (1999), Onda (2001), Kostner (2003), Phaneuf (2004), Czisny (2005), Asada (2005), Meissner (2006), Flatt (2008), Suzuki (2008), Korpi (2009), Makarova (2010)

Bronze
Slutskaya (1995), Sokolova (1997), Nikodinov (1998), S. Hughes (1999), Kirk (2000), Cohen (2001), Poykio (2002), Arakawa (2002), Sebestyen (2003), Ando (2004), Rochette (2004), Nakano (2005), Kim (2006), E. Hughes (2006), Zhang (2007), Wagner (2007), Takeda (2007), Lepisto (2008), Leonova (2009), Murakami (2010), Lacoste (2010)
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
My predictions for ladies.

Ando wins handily in Russia, Makarova with the home court advantage edges Suzuki for second.

Mao Asada wins TEB, knocking out Nagasu (2nd), Phaneuf and Korpi. Alissa gets third and makes the finals.

Ando 30
Kostner 26 (1&3)
Murakami 26 (1&3)
Czinsy 26 (1&3)
Flatt 26 (2&2)
Makarova 26 (2&2)
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
My predictions for ladies.

Ando wins handily in Russia, Makarova with the home court advantage edges Suzuki for second.

Mao Asada wins TEB, knocking out Nagasu (2nd), Phaneuf and Korpi. Alissa gets third and makes the finals.

Ando 30
Kostner 26 (1&3)
Murakami 26 (1&3)
Czinsy 26 (1&3)
Flatt 26 (2&2) l
Makarova 26 (2&2)
If Ando places second (think home town Makarava, there will be a lot of tie breakers going on. But Kostner is 24 as is Murakami. It's Flatt leading the parade at 26. Only Ando and Czisny can beat her. Will they?
I do agree, your prediction of Ando Kostner Murakami, Czisny, Flatt and Makaraova are either already in the Finals or probably will be.

It looks like the magic number will be 24, and several Ladies can still make that and let the Tiebreakers begin.

(Keeping an eye on Suzuki, Korpi, and Nagasu to usurp the prediction.

The magic number for the boys will be 26 with Dai, Nobi already in the Finals. The four remaining could be Kozuka, Abbott, Mroz, Verner, and maybe Amodio if one of the four has a meltdown.

It's amazing that two Bronze medals in the Men's Division is not enough to get one into the Finals.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
No, I agree with Silverlake. Obviously, Mirai and Alena both have big uphill battles to make the final and they have to pull off some spectacular skating. Mirai is capable of that. Alena not so much. She does have the hometown advantage, though, that's something. But I can't see her winning. It's not impossible but Ksenia and Miki are just better than her. Akiko, in my opinion, too but judges seem ambivalent about her and it seems to change each competition. I wouldn't be surprised if the judges preferred Alena at Cup of Russia so Akiko really needs to not pop every other jump... Still, as Silverlake notes, Alena needs to win and it's a longshot.

So Alissa skated badly at sectionals?? Groan. :sheesh:

That's how I see it too.

And yeah, Alissa fell on 3f (which was downgraded, <<) in the SP and then in the FS she fell on 3f and 3lo, doubled and stepped out of an intended 3t, doubled the second 3f, only did 2 combos (3lz-2t and 2f-2t), and therefore only landed 2 clean triples (a 3lz in combination and a solo 3t - both in the first part of her program). Her scores were still decent but I'm not sure that will get her 3rd or better at TEB...
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
If Ando places second (think home town Makarava, there will be a lot of tie breakers going on. But Kostner is 24 as is Murakami. It's Flatt leading the parade at 26. Only Ando and Czisny can beat her. Will they?

I am pretty sure that Kostner (15+11) and Murakami (11+15) both have 26. At the moment Rachael is in third place. She also has 26 (13+13), but loses to both Kostner and Murakami on the first tie breaker.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2010/gpsladies.htm

If Ando gets second in Russia, with Makarova winning, then they will both have 28, moving Rachael down to fifth. If Alissa gets third in France, she wll have 26 and beats Rachael in the first tie-beaker, leaving Rachael hanging on to the final place in the finals.
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
I just realized that Miki has never won a GPF. This may be her year, unless she gets upstaged by Kanako. If Mirai gets to go, she may stir things up though. I want Mirai to go but I am also aware that her going also hinges on how Mao fares at TEB. It's quite a dilemma for me.
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
I am pretty sure that Kostner (15+11) and Murakami (11+15) both have 26. At the moment Rachael is in third place. She also has 26 (13+13), but loses to both Kostner and Murakami on the first tie breaker.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2010/gpsladies.htm

If Ando gets second in Russia, with Makarova winning, then they will both have 28, moving Rachael down to fifth. If Alissa gets third in France, she wll have 26 and beats Rachael in the first tie-beaker, leaving Rachael hanging on to the final place in the finals.
I'm confused on what breaks the ties. The first tie breaker is the better score of the two scores, but in case of Kostner and Murakami it still is in tie. If one goes to the second tie breaker, it is Flatt with the higher total scores.

Just trying to find out the system. Have no favorites here. The GPF is the final word.
 
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