Coming Close to the the GP Finals

**Joesitz** · 11-16-2010, 03:10 PM

Originally Posted by Mathman

My predictions for ladies.

Ando wins handily in Russia, Makarova with the home court advantage edges Suzuki for second.

Mao Asada wins TEB, knocking out Nagasu (2nd), Phaneuf and Korpi. Alissa gets third and makes the finals.

Ando 30
Kostner 26 (1&3)
Murakami 26 (1&3)
Czinsy 26 (1&3)
Flatt 26 (2&2) l
Makarova 26 (2&2)

If Ando places second (think home town Makarava, there will be a lot of tie breakers going on. But Kostner is 24 as is Murakami. It's Flatt leading the parade at 26. Only Ando and Czisny can beat her. Will they?
I do agree, your prediction of Ando Kostner Murakami, Czisny, Flatt and Makaraova are either already in the Finals or probably will be.

It looks like the magic number will be 24, and several Ladies can still make that and let the Tiebreakers begin.

(Keeping an eye on Suzuki, Korpi, and Nagasu to usurp the prediction.

The magic number for the boys will be 26 with Dai, Nobi already in the Finals. The four remaining could be Kozuka, Abbott, Mroz, Verner, and maybe Amodio if one of the four has a meltdown.

It's amazing that two Bronze medals in the Men's Division is not enough to get one into the Finals.

**silverlake22** · 11-16-2010, 03:17 PM

Originally Posted by Layfan

No, I agree with Silverlake. Obviously, Mirai and Alena both have big uphill battles to make the final and they have to pull off some spectacular skating. Mirai is capable of that. Alena not so much. She does have the hometown advantage, though, that's something. But I can't see her winning. It's not impossible but Ksenia and Miki are just better than her. Akiko, in my opinion, too but judges seem ambivalent about her and it seems to change each competition. I wouldn't be surprised if the judges preferred Alena at Cup of Russia so Akiko really needs to not pop every other jump... Still, as Silverlake notes, Alena needs to win and it's a longshot.

So Alissa skated badly at sectionals?? Groan. :sheesh:

That's how I see it too.

And yeah, Alissa fell on 3f (which was downgraded, <<) in the SP and then in the FS she fell on 3f and 3lo, doubled and stepped out of an intended 3t, doubled the second 3f, only did 2 combos (3lz-2t and 2f-2t), and therefore only landed 2 clean triples (a 3lz in combination and a solo 3t - both in the first part of her program). Her scores were still decent but I'm not sure that will get her 3rd or better at TEB...

**Mathman** · 11-16-2010, 03:37 PM

Originally Posted by Joesitz

If Ando places second (think home town Makarava, there will be a lot of tie breakers going on. But Kostner is 24 as is Murakami. It's Flatt leading the parade at 26. Only Ando and Czisny can beat her. Will they?

I am pretty sure that Kostner (15+11) and Murakami (11+15) both have 26. At the moment Rachael is in third place. She also has 26 (13+13), but loses to both Kostner and Murakami on the first tie breaker.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2010/gpsladies.htm

If Ando gets second in Russia, with Makarova winning, then they will both have 28, moving Rachael down to fifth. If Alissa gets third in France, she wll have 26 and beats Rachael in the first tie-beaker, leaving Rachael hanging on to the final place in the finals.

**miki88** · 11-16-2010, 03:51 PM

I just realized that Miki has never won a GPF. This may be her year, unless she gets upstaged by Kanako. If Mirai gets to go, she may stir things up though. I want Mirai to go but I am also aware that her going also hinges on how Mao fares at TEB. It's quite a dilemma for me.

**Joesitz** · 11-16-2010, 06:34 PM

Originally Posted by Mathman

I am pretty sure that Kostner (15+11) and Murakami (11+15) both have 26. At the moment Rachael is in third place. She also has 26 (13+13), but loses to both Kostner and Murakami on the first tie breaker.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2010/gpsladies.htm

If Ando gets second in Russia, with Makarova winning, then they will both have 28, moving Rachael down to fifth. If Alissa gets third in France, she wll have 26 and beats Rachael in the first tie-beaker, leaving Rachael hanging on to the final place in the finals.

I'm confused on what breaks the ties. The first tie breaker is the better score of the two scores, but in case of Kostner and Murakami it still is in tie. If one goes to the second tie breaker, it is Flatt with the higher total scores.

Just trying to find out the system. Have no favorites here. The GPF is the final word.

**C_T_T_** · 11-16-2010, 06:56 PM

Originally Posted by Joesitz

I'm confused on what breaks the ties. The first tie breaker is the better score of the two scores, but in case of Kostner and Murakami it still is in tie. If one goes to the second tie breaker, it is Flatt with the higher total scores.

Just trying to find out the system. Have no favorites here. The GPF is the final word.

First tie breaker is the higher finish. So Kostner and Murakami beat Flatt as 1st/3rd is better than 2nd/2nd. So Flatt is third of those three. Then to split Kostner and Murakami we hav eto use th esecond tie break which is the higher scores. Kostner has 319.48 and Murakami has 315.09 so Kostner is first. It doesn't matter that Rachael wins the second tie break because she already lost the first.

**Jammers** · 11-16-2010, 07:20 PM

At this point i would just want Mirai to get on the podium. Just a bronze at COC and she would have had a great chance at the GPF. She really makes it harder on herself then it needs to be. If she can't medal at TEB then i don't what to say about her anymore.

**Joesitz** · 11-17-2010, 07:18 AM

Originally Posted by C_T_T_

First tie breaker is the higher finish. So Kostner and Murakami beat Flatt as 1st/3rd is better than 2nd/2nd. So Flatt is third of those three. Then to split Kostner and Murakami we hav eto use th esecond tie break which is the higher scores. Kostner has 319.48 and Murakami has 315.09 so Kostner is first. It doesn't matter that Rachael wins the second tie break because she already lost the first.

What we have now is a tie for 1st place and a 3rd place.
If Czisny wins France and Ando wins Russia, We have a new and a more favorable tie for 1st place. What we will have after the conclusion of the contest is Four definite Finalists and if we look at Makarova and Suzuki (France and Russia) and they are the silver medalists, we have them plus Rachael in a tie for 5th and 6th place with placements according to scores.

Unfortunately we have ascertained that Panels are not equals, so those scores can be unfair to the results. No?

My conclusion would be that 2 Silver medals do not necessarily get a skater a birth in the GPF. Of course, all of this is how well Ando, Czisny, Makarova and Suzuki actually do place.

**Mathman** · 11-17-2010, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by Joesitz

Unfortunately we have ascertained that Panels are not equals, so those scores can be unfair to the results. No?

True. But I do not see any way around it. If there is, say, a three-way tie for the last spot in the finals there has to be some way of deciding who gets to go. Anyway you do it will have a certain amount of unfairness.

My conclusion would be that 2 Silver medals do not necessarily get a skater a birth in the GPF. Of course, all of this is how well Ando, Czisny, Makarova and Suzuki actually do place.

I think the original idea, even before there was a grand prix circuit per se, was that there would be six major events, then the winners of those events would have a big skate-off at the end.

The problem was, the same skater might win two events (or three, back then). So they had to let in some second place finishers to fill the roster.

Under the current rules it could happen that two seconds would not be enough, but that is unlikely. Most years someone is able to sneak in with a silver and a bronze.

**burntBREAD** · 11-17-2010, 10:09 AM

Originally Posted by Jammers

At this point i would just want Mirai to get on the podium. Just a bronze at COC and she would have had a great chance at the GPF. She really makes it harder on herself then it needs to be. If she can't medal at TEB then i don't what to say about her anymore.

Ehh, the field at TEB is full of mines- skaters like Asada, Korpi, Czisny, Phaneuf can all score high on a good day (particularly Mao) and there are some newcomers like Imai there so it's not like it would be all about Mirai there; all those skaters have their own issues with inconsistency in their own right.

**R.D.** · 11-17-2010, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by blue dog

LoL Remember, that Alissa has an actual twin!

?! really? I only know of her sister Amber.

**Sylvia** · 11-17-2010, 10:52 AM

Originally Posted by R.D.

?! really? I only know of her sister Amber.

Amber Czisny IS Alissa's (fraternal) twin.

**R.D.** · 11-17-2010, 11:57 AM

Originally Posted by Sylvia

Amber Czisny IS Alissa's (fraternal) twin.

Oh and I didn't even know that...

**Joesitz** · 11-17-2010, 01:30 PM

Mathman - Regards the tie breakers. Unfair tiebreakers will demean FS. The only way to break a tie as it is in all other sports, is to have a "Run off" The 'Tiers' will meet before the Finals and skate either another SP or a series of elements w/o music.