The person on the bubble is Ashley Wagner with 18 points, next lowest is Rachael, with 26 points and tiebreakers of 2nd and 323.90. There is no mathematical way for the 26 pointers, including Rachael, to be bumped off the list, so the TEB girls will be an exercise in weird tie breakers, if Alissa does not win.

At TEB:
Alissa 15 is in if she is 1st, 30pts, 2nd,28 pts, or 3rd, 26pts
If she's 4th, she has 24 points.
Cynthia, Mirai, Kiira with 9. If any of these girls is first, they have 24 points.
Haruka with 7. If she wins, she has 22.
Mao with 3. If Mao wins, she would bump Ashley with 18 pts and the 1st place tie breaker, but it's impossible for the other 4 girls to all score lower without all eating bad sushi or having back problems.

So if Alissa wins, it's Alissa and the 5 already in. If Alissa is 2nd, she's in.
If one of the 9 pointers wins, that's 24 points, and she's out.
Same if Alissa is 3rd with 26 points.

It gets interesting if Alissa is 4th. She has then, 24 points.
If one of the 4th place girls wins, she has 24 point. The one with the highest total score, Alissa, or the 1st place finisher, is in.


If Alissa is 5th or lower, the 1st place nine pointer is in.

If Haruka is 1st (22pts), and Alissa is 5th, and one of the 9pointers is 2nd, all have 22 points. However, it is Haruka vs Alissa for highest total points in the tie breaker.

If Mao is first, and Alissa 5th or less, then it's really interesting.
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