Wicked Yankee Girl
The person on the bubble is Ashley Wagner with 18 points, next lowest is Rachael, with 26 points and tiebreakers of 2nd and 323.90. There is no mathematical way for the 26 pointers, including Rachael, to be bumped off the list, so the TEB girls will be an exercise in weird tie breakers, if Alissa does not win.
Alissa 15 is in if she is 1st, 30pts, 2nd,28 pts, or 3rd, 26pts
If she's 4th, she has 24 points.
Cynthia, Mirai, Kiira with 9. If any of these girls is first, they have 24 points.
Haruka with 7. If she wins, she has 22.
Mao with 3. If Mao wins, she would bump Ashley with 18 pts and the 1st place tie breaker, but it's impossible for the other 4 girls to all score lower without all eating bad sushi or having back problems.
So if Alissa wins, it's Alissa and the 5 already in. If Alissa is 2nd, she's in.
If one of the 9 pointers wins, that's 24 points, and she's out.
Same if Alissa is 3rd with 26 points.
It gets interesting if Alissa is 4th. She has then, 24 points.
If one of the 4th place girls wins, she has 24 point. The one with the highest total score, Alissa, or the 1st place finisher, is in.
If Alissa is 5th or lower, the 1st place nine pointer is in.
If Haruka is 1st (22pts), and Alissa is 5th, and one of the 9pointers is 2nd, all have 22 points. However, it is Haruka vs Alissa for highest total points in the tie breaker.
If Mao is first, and Alissa 5th or less, then it's really interesting.
"Hold an edge and look sexy!"
Alissa just needs a solid outing. She can fall on a jump or 2 throughout the competition and likely still maintain her GP standing to advance to the GP Final and be on the medal podium at TEB. The important thing for her to do is rotate her jumps. If she suffers downgrades, she is in danger. Her competition in France is far from consistent. Luckily for her, Ando and Suzuki are not here.
Constable , Costume Police
But , if the moon should happen to be full on the third friday in November in an odd year, then...
OMG.. doris' rundown has my head spinning. Figuring this out is like trying to total up some long sum in your head and some joker comes up behind you saying, " 62...10 ..47..323..."
Hope I can follow what happened when it's all over. ( Mao could make this all so easy for us. )
Last edited by colleen o'neill; 11-25-2010 at 01:26 AM.
I don't think even Kim her self will ever crack that 228.5 or go near within 20 points again. The whole figure skating event at Vancouver was a joke, and mark are so inflated all across the ladies, pair and dance. I feel only men event was judged slight more reasonable, and the least inflated. At least no one was cracking 170 mark even with super clean performance.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
Breaking out the calculator for Mroz, Amodio, and Abbott's battle for the last spot, assuming Kozuka is in and Joubert is out, which is now extremely likely:
Obviously if either of the first two overtake Kozuka in the free to win, they're in, as is Mroz if he overtakes Amodio for silver, and if Joubert or anyone else knocks anyone down even a spot, they're out. But if the standings stay as they are, then, magic numbers in the free skate to overtake Abbott:
If they both get clear their numbers, but stay where they are, it's whoever clears it by more. (And with only three points separating them, that will probably be the silver medalist, but doesn't have to be).
So it looks like the men are:
Takahiko Kozuka, JPN (30 + 481.58)
Daisuke Takahasi, JPN (30 + 461.86)
Patrick Chan, CAN (28)
Tomas Verner, CZE (26 +1st at Skate America)
Nobunari Oda, JPN (26 + 2nd at SC and SA)
Florent Amodio, FRA (24+ 443.15)
Jeremy Abbott, USA (24+ 435.40)
Brandon Mroz, USA (24 + 431.11)
Adam Rippon, USA (20)
Sad to see no American in the final, but it was close. Well I hope they do better at Worlds!
ETA: Tomas' name + country id.
Last edited by Mrs. P; 11-27-2010 at 12:27 PM.
Well I definitely won't be watching. None of them is great, nor are the Americans. After the Olympics this is what's left over.
3 very strong Japanese men who can possibly sweep the podium in Beijing, can anyone stop them?
Originally Posted by Mrs. P
Sure. The judges with their Chan Lovefest could stop them.
Originally Posted by wallylutz
Seeing how he beat the #2 Japanese man with 4 falls, you better be careful about what you wish.
Originally Posted by bigsisjiejie
As I predicted, mens skating following the ladies footsteps, with the balance shifting to Asia, Japan specifically.
Originally Posted by Mrs. P
The top medalist at the GPF will earn automatically a trip to worlds from a very crowded field in the hunt. This will be interesting to see, a mini japanese nationals with 3 foreign guest stars
I can find merit in all of these guys in the GPF, and have no particular preference as to winner. My wish is for great clean skating all around, and especially for fair and consistent judging across all competitors. If that happens, I can ask for no more.
Originally Posted by wallylutz
Ladies final lineup:
Miki Ando — 30
Alissa Czisny — 26 (1st and 3rd) + 332.17
Carolina Kostner — 26 (1st and 3rd)+319.48
Kankano Murakami — 26 (1st and 3rd) + 315.09
Akiko Suzuki — 26 (two silvers) + 335.60
Rachael Flatt — 26 (two silvers) + 323.90
Kiira Korpi — 24 (4th and 1st)
Mirai Nagasu — 22 (4th and 2nd)
Ashley Wagner — 18 (5th and 3rd +310.75 beats Cynthia and Amelie)
1. Miki Ando
2. Alissa Czisny
3. Carolina Kostner
4. Kanako Murakami
5. Akiko Suzuki
6. Rachael Flatt
Are the alternates
1. Kiira Korpi
2. Mirai Nagasu
Ice Dance lineup:
Davis and White — 30 + 321.89
Pechalat and Bourzat — 30 + 321.31
Crone and Poirier — 28 + 303.50
Bobrova and Soloviev — 28 + 299.72
Weaver and Poje — 22 + (2nd and 4th + 283.91)
Hoffmann and Zavozin — 22 (2nd and 4th + 272.91)
Shibuanti and Shibuanti — 22 (3rd and 3rd + 281.74)
Chock and Zuerlein – 22 (3rd and 3rd + 277.53)
Rizanova and Tkachenko — 20 (5th and 2nd beats Ilinykh and Katsalapov's 3rd and 4th place finishes)