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  1. #1
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    Predictions

    Men: Joubert (unless he has a meltdown, then Kozuka), Kozuka, then Amodio, Mroz or Reynolds

    Ladies: Czisny, Phaneuf, Korpii.. I don't think Mao or Mirai are going to bring it this time, and Cynthia will recover from her disappointing showing at SC

    Pairs: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Bazarova/Larionov, then, idk, maybe Della Monica/Kocon or even Brodeur/Mattatall

    Dance: Pechalat/Bourzat, Chock/Zuerlein, then either Carron/Jones or Riazanova/Tkachenko

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    Mao is the big question mark. It's rather a problem of her (lack of) competitive motivation than physical conditions. She seems to think jumping practices are more important than scores and placements. It's reported that the 3A in the latter half has almost zero success rate even in practices. It's quite irrational (and provocative) to attempt such a program in actual competitions. If three Japanese ladies make the Final, she and her coach might feel more pressure, but I don't know.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    Mao is the big question mark. It's rather a problem of her (lack of) competitive motivation than physical conditions. She seems to think jumping practices are more important than scores and placements. It's reported that the 3A in the latter half has almost zero success rate even in practices. It's quite irrational (and provocative) to attempt such a program in actual competitions. If three Japanese ladies make the Final, she and her coach might feel more pressure, but I don't know.
    Yeah, maybe if she wanted to focus on jump practice or reworking of technique, she should have taken the GP off. I wonder if it isn't a little embarrassing to show up at a GP event and do a bunch of singles on national tv?

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    ladies-
    mao- alissa, cythnia
    with kiira, mirai and haruka with outside to medal

    men
    takahiko kozuka and brian joubert for the title
    florent amoido, brandon mroz and kevin reyonlds for bronze

    pairs
    sazvachenko/szolkowy for title
    barazova/larinov for 2nd
    i don't know for third-so i will shot mattuer.mattal
    or the italian team

    dance

    1)pechalat /bourzat
    for other medals,
    carron jost/ chock/zuerelin, riazianova/tkachenko
    Last edited by fairly4; 11-20-2010 at 12:22 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    Mao is the big question mark. It's rather a problem of her (lack of) competitive motivation than physical conditions. She seems to think jumping practices are more important than scores and placements. It's reported that the 3A in the latter half has almost zero success rate even in practices. It's quite irrational (and provocative) to attempt such a program in actual competitions. If three Japanese ladies make the Final, she and her coach might feel more pressure, but I don't know.
    I wonder where you got some news as you posted here is sometimes I couldn't find. What I've read says she herself knows new-form jumps getting consistent and that it'll take a little more time to success through programs. Besides,according to both Mr.Sato and Mao,her jump consistency depends on day by day,even I have a rumor that she skated clean Sp with journalists.

    As for GP series,I can say her decision could be better because she's a slow starter,which means she needs enough competitions to take confident herself.
    Of course what she needs is to practice,but she should attend competition and confirm the stuff she focuses on.

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    I don't think Mao should do a 3A in her SP. She needs to just skate a clean program, and doing a 3A in the SP is pretty much unnecessary since her PCS is already higher than others, and she doesn't need that extra TES that comes with a gigantic risk. Her 2A is very solid and gets good +GOE, so I think in risk/reward the 3A doesn't cut it.

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    Ladies

    As everyone states, the big question is Mao. Mao doesn't need to be clean to win, but the process she's undertaking (revamping her technique) is so profound that it's really destabalized her. I suspect this season is her time off season - I fully expect her to grow this quad (as a skater, not physically) and think the she's taking the right path to the all-time lists. But ... this competition could be great or bad, depending on who's on.

    1. Kiira Korpi
    2. Alissa Czisny
    3. Mirai Nagasu
    4. Mao Asada
    5. Cynthia Phaneuf
    6. Haruka Imai

    Phaneuf will want a strong skate to justify being the Canadian number 1, but without Joannie Rochette, that poll position won't mean a whole hell of a lot these next few years. I don't think she really took the lessons from her solid Worlds performance that we'd hope she'd have taken. Asada's strong PCS will buoy her up a little, but her mistakes (popped jumps/URs) are costly. Nagasu would have medalled at CoC were it not for the combo rule (which has now changed the medals on three podiums this season. I don't know much about Czisny's history, but I do think she's skating with a newfound confidence this season. But in the end, I'm gonna predict Korpi. Just a gut feeling.

    Men
    1. Takahiko Kozuka
    2. Florent Amodio
    3. Brian Joubert
    4. Brandon Mroz
    5. Kevin Reynolds

    Joubert doesn't skate well at home + new programs that challenge him in ways his previous ones didn't + PCS lower than what he's used to means that winning is going to be a challenge, especially with the concurrent rise in Kozuka's PCS. Amodio would love to beat Joubert in an international competition and has the confidence to do it. Joubert's quad will keep him in contention after the SP, but it's those little mistakes that will hurt him in the end. Reynolds with multiple quads stays in the hunt. Reynolds with no triple axel doesn't.

    Pairs
    1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
    2. Barazova/Larionov
    3. Della Monica/Kocon
    4. Hausch/Wende
    5. Brodeur/Mattatal

    They might as well ship the silver and gold right now because barring withdraws, these will be the top two. The bronze is a major fight though. Della Monica/Kocon are in a fight with Berton/Hotarek back home for the number one Italian pairs team. the younger Canadian pairs have blasted by Brodeur/Mattatal (who made the top ten at worlds two seasons ago) and would be lucky to podium at Nationals.

    Dance
    1. Pechelat/Borzat
    2. Carron/Jost
    3. Chock/Zuerlein
    4. Riazanova/Tkachenko
    5. Ralph/Hill

    Look for Pechelat/Bourzat to challenge D/W's season scores here. Particularly on TES.

  8. #8
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    Ladies

    1. Mao Asada
    2. Mirai Nagasu
    3. Cynthia Phaneuf
    4. Alissa Czisny
    5. Kiira Korpi
    6. Haruka Imai

    Mao has reportedly worked on her jumps since NHK and they are much better now. Mirai should have no problem medaling so long as she doesn't bomb the FS, which I don't think she will here. One of Phanuef, Czisny, or Korpi will likely skate well but I don't know which one that will be. Korpi seems the most prone to make the most mistakes, so I have her behind the other two, and I put Phaneuf ahead of Czisny where we can probably expect a clean SP from her due to the layout and after the way Alissa skated at Mids I'm sort of unsure of how she will skate here.

    Men
    1. Takahiko Kozuka
    2. Brian Joubert
    3. Florent Amodio
    4. Kevin Reynolds
    5. Brandon Mroz

    Joubert can win but he's prone to mistakes and Taka seems to be on a roll right now. If Joubert doesn't step up to the plate then Amodio may overtake him.

    Pairs
    1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
    2. Barazova/Larionov
    3. Della Monica/Kocon
    4. Hausch/Wende
    5. Brodeur/Mattatal



    Dance
    1. Pechelat/Borzat
    2. Ralph/Hill
    3. Carron/Jost
    4. Chock/Zuerlein
    5. Riazanova/Tkachenko

    A win for P/B to follow up her boyfriend's win last week.

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