Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
Third year in a row I'm doing this, to my mild surprise, and I wouldn't rely on my ability to prognosticate as much; I haven't been following as closely. But still, to start the general speculation. I've watched as 23 men have competed in the first two events, and nobody major has been knocked out yet, but so far the eight men with substantial points are(Okay, it's not impossible for fifth-placers to qualify by winning their other event, but it's unlikely):
NHK Trophy Top Four:
1. Daisuke Takahash-Need only medal at Skate America to seal it, where he'll probably win if he skates well, though if he makes mistakes Oda and/or Rippon could challenge him. But even then he's got bronze, unless he melts down. Barring disaster, he's in. He might even survive disaster.
2. Jeremy Abbott-Mathematically needs to win Rostelecom Cup, where he's up against Patrick Chan, Tomas Verner, and also Samuel Contesti, so he needs to skate well. Chan might be pretty hard to beat, but two silvers would probably get him in. Verner, of course, is unpredictable, as is Jeremy himself, so it might be silver or it might be bronze, and then as the chips fall. Contesti stands there as a potential reminder not to make very many mistakes.
3. Florent Amodio-Needs to win Trophée Eric Bombard to seal it, where he faces off against his own countryman, though of course Brian Joubert doesn't necessarily do so well at his native Grand Prix event. If he does, however, Amodio is left defending a needed silver against Takahiko Kozuka, not easy, and also Kevin Reynolds, Micheal Brezina, or even Sergei Voronov or Brandon Mroz, though he should beat the last two if he skates clean. It's a good thing the event's on home ice; that could make the difference. Or it could not.
4. Yuzuru Hanyu-To have a proper chance he'd need to win Rostelecom Cup, where I don't think he can beat Chan unless the latter has serious problems, and silver and the hope of things falling a very certain way isn't too likely either with Verner, Abbott, and Contesti hanging around; odds are at least one of them will skate well.
Skate Canada Top Four:
1. Patrick Chan-Need only medal at Rostelecom Cup, which he should if he skates at all decently; he'll be favorite to win, and even a troubled skate would probably only open the door for Abbott and Verner(and that assumes they skate well).
2. Nobunari Oda-Mathematically needs to win Skate America, not easy against Takahashi. Silver there would give him a good chance; he may once again face off against Rippon for it, this time on the latter's home ice, and there wasn't much difference in their scores either. But there's noone else there he won't stay ahead of if he skates well, so if he does that it's bronze at worst, and then as the chips fall.
3. Adam Rippon-Needs to beat one of the two Japanese guys at Skate America, and if he doesn't skate well he's not even safe against his two countrymen; on the other hand, it's not at all impossible for him to slip past Oda.
4. Kevin Reynolds-Needs to win Trophée Eric Bombard, which won't happen unless Joubert has another bad weekend in Bercy. Amodio might need to have problems too, which makes even silver hard, and that leaves out Brezina, Voronov, and Mroz, none of whom he's at all safe against.
Out of the race, but might remove points elsewhere:
Michal Brezina: Withdrew from his first event, but might be a factor on the Trophée Eric Bombard podium(or just win bronze there)
Contenders yet to skate:
Sorry to ask but can you tell me how the placement works? Gold = 15 but what is silver bronze fourth so on? Much appreciated :D
^supposed to look like a blade!
after that they can't really qualify so it doesn't matter much.
Chan and Takahashi are locks. I see Oda and Abbott having little problems making it. Joubert will make it unless he gets off to a really slow start like he sometimes does. The other spot could go to almost anyone, Rippon will probably end up with 2 3rd place finishes which probably wont be enough.
brandon mroz-possible spoilers brian joubert
Last edited by fairly4; 11-10-2010 at 12:31 PM.
Wait - you're predicting Chan to do worse than 4th at CoR?
Right now it's
Takahashi - 30 (Lock)
Oda - 26 (Likely lock)
Adam Rippon - 20
With two comps left...we got
Chan -15 (COR)
Kozuka - 15 (TEB)
Abbott -13 (COR)
Mroz - 13 (TEB)
Verner -11 (COR)
Florent -11 (TEB)
Joubert - 9 (TEB)
Reynolds - 9 (TEB)
Hanzyu - 9 (COR)
So Adam is unlikely to make the final unless five of the top six guys remaining melt down (unlikely). Chan and Kozuka are safe with at least a fourth place finish. Abbott and Mroz will be solid on as long as he's on the podium. Verner and Florent will need at least a silver. The nine pointers could be a lock by winning and maybe getting by with a silver.
So my predicted GPF roster
Takihashi - 30
Kozuka - 30 (wins TEB)
Chan - 30 (wins COR)
Abbott - 26 (second COR)
Oda - 26
Florent -24 (second in TEB)
Possible spoilers: Mroz (at least a silver in TEB); Verner (if he gets Silver in COR); Joubert (winning TEB)
Last edited by Mrs. P; 11-14-2010 at 03:51 AM.
"Hold an edge and look sexy!"
Locks for the GPF so far:
Daisuke Takahashi 30 (15+15)
Nobunari Oda 26 (13+13)
Chan 30 (15+15 wins CoR)
Takahiko 28 (15+13 second in TEB)
Jeremy 26 (13+13 second in CoR)
Brian 24 (9+15 wins TEB)
here's what we got so far
Takahahi - 30
Chan - 28
Oda - 26
Verner - 26
Abbott - 24
Kozuka will be in easily with a bronze or higher. 4th may get him in with a tie break
Mroz will get in with at least a silver. Bronze will get him into a tiebreaker situation with Abbott
Florent could get in if he wins. He might get in with a silver if he wins tie breakers with Abbott.
Joubert could get in with a win as he would beat a tie break with Abbott.
Reynolds will have to win, which I think is unlikely.
I think Kozuka will get there easily by winning. And I think that Florent will have a good competition and win silver. However, he would have to break a tiebreaker and for fun I'll say he won't. I say that Abbott may be able to hold on.
So my list
"Hold an edge and look sexy!"
Additional Locks after COR:
Originally Posted by museksk8r
So it looks like only one American man in the Final.
Three locks at this point: Verner, Takahashi and Chan. Oda very likely (the only way he loses is a Amodio-Mroz-Kozuka podium with Mroz scoring 245.82 or greater. I'll let you decide the odds of that). Kozuka needs a medal to be assured a spot. Fourth place means it's likely provided but podium manipulation can push him out. Realistically, only one spot is up for grabs and I think it's between Abbott and Amodio, with Mroz as a potential spoiler (Joubert needs to win, otherwise he's out).
So it looks like the men are:
Takahiko Kozuka, JPN (30 + 481.58)
Daisuke Takahasi, JPN (30 + 461.86)
Patrick Chan, CAN (28)
Thomas Verner (26 +1st at Skate America)
Nobunari Oda, JPN (26 + 2nd at SC and SA)
Florent Amodio, FRA (24+ 443.15)
Jeremy Abbott, USA (24+ 435.40)
Brandon Mroz, USA (24 + 431.11)
Adam Rippon, USA (20)
I'm glad so many of my favorites made it
Originally Posted by Mrs. P