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Thread: Predictions

  1. #31
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    My Dream Podiums:

    Men:

    1.) Verner - with no Lysacek and no Joubert at the GPF this season, he fills the role of the manly man skater (aka he isn't diminutive and asian or morozov-ified ). Comes in 4th or 5th in the SP but scores are close and then skates a clean FS with the quad and the Chinese crowd goes crazy for his MJ, wins overall.

    2.) Kozuka - outskates his Japanese teammates and rightfully places ahead of them. His introvertedness and a few mistakes in the FS keep him from winning, but overall he is great.

    3.) Takahashi - makes the same mistakes he has been making all season but still sells his programs for all they are worth. His PCS keep him on the podium.

    4.) Oda - he makes a mistake in the SP and then his LP is just really boring. A couple of bobbles/counting errors keeps him off the podium.

    5.) Amodio - first trip to the GPF so he's a little nervous and makes some mistakes. That combined with lower PCS keeps him down this far.

    6.) Chan - I'm fine with him winning if he skates clean but if he falls 4 times again in this competition he honestly deserves to be in last, especially considering the 5 other men at this event are extremely talented themselves. So I predict he falls 4 times and this time the judges don't let him off so easy.

    Ladiezz:

    1.) Murakami - she's the only one who skates clean and isn't sleep inducing. Extra points for perkiness!

    2.) Czisny - clean SP and only one jump mistake in the FS, PCS aren't as high as they were in Canada but her scores are strong enough for silver

    3.) Ando - she gets a new SP, but it's still not good, and then does a jumping lesson in the FS, but shows no emotion so her PCS are docked accordingly. Ends up 3rd just because of the quality of her jumps but if it weren't for others mistakes she'd finish lower.

    4.) Flatt - skates clean but gets issued a few downgrades and that combined with lowish PCS keeps her behind Ando.

    5.) Suzuki - you can't pop your jumps and expect to win a medal. She has an off night with her jumps and even her amazing footwork and energy aren't enough to get her on the podium.

    6.) Kostner - her novice level content hurts her, and then she has bobbles in the FS. injury is still clearly affecting her so she need not feel too bad about finishing last.

  2. #32
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    I played with Men's numbers and came up with placements by various factors. May be interesting for extrapolation and analysis. I will try doing the Ladies later.

    By event placement points:

    1. Kozuka.......30
    2. Takahashi...30
    3. Chan..........28
    4. Verner........26
    5. Oda...........26
    6. Amodio.......24

    By Total Scores:

    1. Kozuka........481.58
    2. Chan...........466.73
    3. Oda.............462.61
    4. Takahashi.....461.86
    5. Verner..........445.12
    6. Amodio.........443.15

    By Scores in a single event:

    1. Kozuka........248.07
    2. Chan...........239.52
    3. Oda............236.52
    4. Takahashi....234.79
    4a. Kozuka.......233.51
    5. Verner.........230.31
    6. Amodio........229.38

    8. Chan...........227.31
    9. Takahashi.....227.07
    10. Oda...........226.09
    11. Verner........214.81
    12. Amodio.......213.99

    By Total of Best SP + Best LP

    1. Chan..........248.28
    2. Kozuka.......248.07
    3. Oda...........236.52
    4. Takahashi...235.03
    5. Verner........230.31
    6. Amodio.......229.38

    By Lowest SP + Lowest LP

    1. Kozuka........233.51
    2. Takahashi....226.99
    3. Oda............226.09
    4. Chan...........225.34
    5. Verner.........214.81
    6. Amodio........213.77

    If 6 points are given for each 1st place, 5 for 2nd, etc....from the above lists:

    1. Kozuka........29
    2. Chan...........23
    3. Takahashi....19
    4. Oda.............18
    5. Verner.........11
    6. Amodio.........6

    Well, it's all much ado about nothing as the final list is almost exactly the same as the first. Need I do this for the Ladies? I think everybody is having fun doing it however way they like.

    Edited to note that without "jump counting" mistakes, Oda could improve his optimal score (Best SP + best LP) but not enough to move up on that list, whereas Chan could improve his worst case scenario score enough to move to 2nd place in that list but not on the final list.

    Edited: Ha nobody caught a mistake I made. I reversed Oda and Takahashi on one of the lists, resulting in only 1 pt difference in the final list but no change in ranking there.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 12-07-2010 at 12:28 AM.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    I played with Men's numbers and came up with placements by various factors. May be interesting for extrapolation and analysis. I will try doing the Ladies later.

    By event placement points:

    1. Kozuka.......30
    2. Takahashi...30
    3. Chan..........28
    4. Verner........26
    5. Oda...........26
    6. Amodio.......24

    By Total Scores:

    1. Kozuka........481.58
    2. Chan...........466.73
    3. Oda.............462.61
    4. Takahashi.....461.86
    5. Verner..........445.12
    6. Amodio.........443.15

    By Scores in a single event:

    1. Kozuka........248.07
    2. Chan...........239.52
    3. Takahashi....234.79
    4. Oda............236.52
    4a. Kozuka.......233.51
    5. Verner.........230.31
    6. Amodio........229.38

    8. Chan...........227.31
    9. Takahashi.....227.07
    10. Oda...........226.09
    11. Verner........214.81
    12. Amodio.......213.99

    By Total of Best SP + Best LP

    1. Chan..........248.28
    2. Kozuka.......248.07
    3. Oda...........236.52
    4. Takahashi...235.03
    5. Verner........230.31
    6. Amodio.......229.38

    By Lowest SP + Lowest LP

    1. Kozuka........233.51
    2. Takahashi....226.99
    3. Oda............226.09
    4. Chan...........225.34
    5. Verner.........214.81
    6. Amodio........213.77

    If 6 points are given for each 1st place, 5 for 2nd, etc....from the above lists:

    1. Kozuka........29
    2. Chan...........23
    3. Takahashi....20
    4. Oda............17
    5. Verner.........11
    6. Amodio.........6

    Well, it's all much ado about nothing as the final list is almost exactly the same as the first. Need I do this for the Ladies? I think everybody is having fun doing it however way they like.

    Edited to note that without "jump counting" mistakes, Oda could improve his optimal score (Best SP + best LP) but not enough to move up on that list, whereas Chan could improve his worst case scenario score enough to move to 2nd place in that list but not on the final list.
    For a statistician like me (majored in it, never practised it), I like to do similar things, but I would not like to jinx my favorites
    The only thing I want to tell here, I will be watching very closely the outcome for the men in this event, 4 yeas ago,similar situation (new quadranial), the men who ended 1-2 in the GPF, were Joubert and Takahashi and later at the worlds in Tokyo in 2007, they reapeated as 1-2. The winner here might win again later in ..Tokyo

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by herios View Post
    For a statistician like me (majored in it, never practised it), I like to do similar things, but I would not like to jinx my favorites
    The only thing I want to tell here, I will be watching very closely the outcome for the men in this event, 4 yeas ago,similar situation (new quadranial), the men who ended 1-2 in the GPF, were Joubert and Takahashi and later at the worlds in Tokyo in 2007, they reapeated as 1-2. The winner here might win again later in ..Tokyo
    Therefore, we can conclude the results are fixed in advance.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    Therefore, we can conclude the results are fixed in advance.
    Nope, that is not what I meant. Rather the men who are in form in the fall season, will carry it over into spring and remain the guys in form throughout the whole season.
    That could really happen.And I would not be surprised at all.

  6. #36
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    Lost my Ladies' data and lists to the cyber rabbit hole.




    OK, this is now another day. Am not redoing the Ladies' stat for now. But I can have a little fun with the Men's stat to argue against silverlake's dream podium.

    1.) Verner - with no Lysacek and no Joubert at the GPF this season, he fills the role of the manly man skater (aka he isn't diminutive and asian or morozov-ified ). Comes in 4th or 5th in the SP but scores are close and then skates a clean FS with the quad and the Chinese crowd goes crazy for his MJ, wins overall.
    This is an extremely low probability scenario, manly or not. Verner's best possible scores by this season's performance so far would put him in 2nd if everybody else does their probable absolute worst (combination of worst SP and worst LP). His clean LP is a long way off to pull him up from 4th or 5th in SP.

    Placements for Kozuka, Takahashi and Oda are all within reasonable probability.

    5.) Amodio - first trip to the GPF so he's a little nervous and makes some mistakes. That combined with lower PCS keeps him down this far.
    Assuming the the first 4 places have been decided, Amodio needs to beat Chan to be in 5th. He wouldn't do this by being a little nervous and making some mistakes because his best combination of both programs (229.38) is only 4 poinst higher than Chan's worst combination, with 3 falls in each program! 6 falls for Chan, not likely, in my very humble and unpopular opinion. Even then, he may count his jumps well like he did in SC rather than in COR. Nah, Amodio needs Chan to do two nice clean programs with URs and popped jumps instead.

    6.) Chan - I'm fine with him winning if he skates clean but if he falls 4 times again in this competition he honestly deserves to be in last, especially considering the 5 other men at this event are extremely talented themselves. So I predict he falls 4 times and this time the judges don't let him off so easy.
    Unfortunately so far judges seem to mark by the rules and the computer has been too insentive to comply with the wishes of some fans in its calculations. Nope, 4 falls wouldn't do it. There are other ways for him to sink to the bottom, just not by his usual mistakes.

    Not saying each skater's placement as you dream of is not possible, silverlake, just highly unlikely in the way you placed them all and the way each wins or loses.

    My bet is on a not so "manly" skater to win.

    Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

    Dreams, nightmares, and reality.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 12-06-2010 at 12:49 PM.

  7. #37
    The Future Mrs. Evan Lysacek #1Kerryfan's Avatar
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    These are predictions, NOT hopes..... believe me, my hopes are quite different.
    MEN:
    1. Takahashi
    2. Oda
    3. Chan
    4. Kozuka
    5. Verner
    6. Amodio

    LADIES:
    1. Suzuki
    2. Murakami
    3. Ando
    4. Flatt
    5. Kostner
    6. Czisny

    PAIRS:
    1. S/S
    2. P/T
    3. B/L
    4. S/H
    5. I/M
    6. M/M

    DANCE:
    1. D/W
    2. P/B
    3. B/S
    4. W/P
    5. C/P
    6. H/Z

  8. #38
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    My Dream Podiums:

    Men:

    1.) Verner - with no Lysacek and no Joubert at the GPF this season, he fills the role of the manly man skater (aka he isn't diminutive and asian or morozov-ified ). Comes in 4th or 5th in the SP but scores are close and then skates a clean FS with the quad and the Chinese crowd goes crazy for his MJ, wins overall.

    2.) Kozuka - outskates his Japanese teammates and rightfully places ahead of them. His introvertedness and a few mistakes in the FS keep him from winning, but overall he is great.

    3.) Takahashi - makes the same mistakes he has been making all season but still sells his programs for all they are worth. His PCS keep him on the podium.

    4.) Oda - he makes a mistake in the SP and then his LP is just really boring. A couple of bobbles/counting errors keeps him off the podium.

    5.) Amodio - first trip to the GPF so he's a little nervous and makes some mistakes. That combined with lower PCS keeps him down this far.

    6.) Chan - I'm fine with him winning if he skates clean but if he falls 4 times again in this competition he honestly deserves to be in last, especially considering the 5 other men at this event are extremely talented themselves. So I predict he falls 4 times and this time the judges don't let him off so easy.

    Ladiezz:

    1.) Murakami - she's the only one who skates clean and isn't sleep inducing. Extra points for perkiness!

    2.) Czisny - clean SP and only one jump mistake in the FS, PCS aren't as high as they were in Canada but her scores are strong enough for silver

    3.) Ando - she gets a new SP, but it's still not good, and then does a jumping lesson in the FS, but shows no emotion so her PCS are docked accordingly. Ends up 3rd just because of the quality of her jumps but if it weren't for others mistakes she'd finish lower.

    4.) Flatt - skates clean but gets issued a few downgrades and that combined with lowish PCS keeps her behind Ando.

    5.) Suzuki - you can't pop your jumps and expect to win a medal. She has an off night with her jumps and even her amazing footwork and energy aren't enough to get her on the podium.

    6.) Kostner - her novice level content hurts her, and then she has bobbles in the FS. injury is still clearly affecting her so she need not feel too bad about finishing last.
    I'm down with your analysis, Silverlake

    Only thing is I'm not so sure Murakami will skate clean - she has yet to do so, no? Still, she seem to be one of the those skaters who can afford a mistake or two. Miki, too, so I can't imagine she will miss the podium - whether it's first, second or third.

    I hope you are right about Alissa.

    Somebody has to be last, which is heartbreaking. I can't help but wonder if it will be Kostner - you are right about her content and all it will take is a few mistakes. Plus, she's injured. I wonder if she'll make it through the whole final. If she does - you can NEVER count her out. The weird thing with this group is that I think any of these ladies could win, depending on what kind of night they all have. If anybody but Miki wins, it will be considered a "surprise victory." But I won't be surprised if any of them win.

    As for the men, I just can't see Chan off the podium. I think he'll either build up a considerable lead in the SP and be able to make some mistake in the FS or make a few mistakes in the SP and come back big in the FS....

    I think it will be Takahashi, Kozuka and Chan on the podium in whatever order. Again, it will be heartbreaking to see any of these guys last because they are all so good.

  9. #39
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    Men:
    1. Kozuka
    2. Chan
    3. Takahashi
    4. Oda
    5. Verner
    6. Amodio

    Ladies:
    1. Ando
    2. Suzuki
    3. Kostner
    4. Czisny
    5. Murakami
    6. Flatt

    Pairs:
    1. S/S
    2. P/T
    3. B/L
    4. I/M
    5. M-T/M
    6. S/H

    Dance:
    1. D/W
    2. P/B
    3. C/P
    4. B/S
    5. W/P
    6. H/Z

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    Im down with your analysis, Silverlake

    Only thing is I'm not so sure Murakami will skate clean - she has yet to do so, no? Still, she seem to be one of the those skaters who can afford a mistake or two. Miki, too, so I can't imagine she will miss the podium - whether it's first, second or third.
    '
    I hope you are right about Alissa.

    Somebody has to be last, which is heartbreaking. I can't help but wonder if it will be Kostner - you are right about her content and all it will take is a few mistakes. Plus, she's injured. I wonder if she'll make it through the whole final. If she does - you can NEVER count her out. The weird thing with this group is that I think any of these ladies could win, depending on what kind of night they all have. If anybody but Miki wins, it will be considered a "surprise victory." But I won't be surprised if any of them win.

    As for the men, I just can't see Chan off the podium. I think he'll either build up a considerable lead in the SP and be able to make some mistake in the FS or make a few mistakes in the SP and come back big in the FS....

    I think it will be Takahashi, Kozuka and Chan on the podium in whatever order. Again, it will be heartbreaking to see any of these guys last because they are all so good.
    I'm not sure about Murakami either, hence why I said Dream Podiums . I think Oda will play spoiler here, it seems like most people have predicted he finishes OTP but he has those amazing jumps and could potentially win the event depending on what goes down. Even Amodio I think has a chance to medal, I mean he has been so on with his jumps this far this season and if the other men continue to make mistakes....who knows. You are probably right about Chan and if he skates well he totally deserves to medal, I was just trying to say that if he mops the ice with his butt again he probably doesn't deserve to be up there. I agree about Miki as a near lock for the podium but an interested to see what the judges think of her new SP - I tend to think anything will be an improvement from the old one but you never know with Morozov...

  11. #41
    The Future Mrs. Evan Lysacek #1Kerryfan's Avatar
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    DREAM PODIUMS.....

    MEN (None of my favorites are there....):
    1. Chan
    2. Verner
    3. Amodio
    4. Kozuka
    5. Oda
    6. Takahashi

    LADIES:
    1. Czisny
    2. Kostner
    3. Flatt
    4. Ando
    5. Suzuki
    6. Murakami

    PAIRS:
    1. S/ S
    2. MT/ M
    3. P/ T
    4. B/ L
    5. I/ M
    6. S/ H

    DANCE:
    1. D/ W
    2. C/ P
    3. W/ P
    4. H/ Z
    5. P/ B
    6. B/ S

  12. #42
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    One thing I do predict is almost certain to happen is Miki Ando winning the FS. She probably only needs 5 triples to do that but if she happens to do 6 she'll just win by a bigger margin.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    This is an extremely low probability scenario, manly or not. Verner's best possible scores by this season's performance so far would put him in 2nd if everybody else does their probable absolute worst (combination of worst SP and worst LP). His clean LP is a long way off to pull him up from 4th or 5th in SP.

    Placements for Kozuka, Takahashi and Oda are all within reasonable probability.



    Assuming the the first 4 places have been decided, Amodio needs to beat Chan to be in 5th. He wouldn't do this by being a little nervous and making some mistakes because his best combination of both programs (229.38) is only 4 poinst higher than Chan's worst combination, with 3 falls in each program! 6 falls for Chan, not likely, in my very humble and unpopular opinion. Even then, he may count his jumps well like he did in SC rather than in COR. Nah, Amodio needs Chan to do two nice clean programs with URs and popped jumps instead.



    Unfortunately so far judges seem to mark by the rules and the computer has been too insentive to comply with the wishes of some fans in its calculations. Nope, 4 falls wouldn't do it. There are other ways for him to sink to the bottom, just not by his usual mistakes.
    If Verner changes his jump out of steps in the SP to a 3lo instead of a 3f to avoid getting the edge call, his score can be a few points higher, and I wouldn't be surprised if he did this. Also if he puts the quad in his FS and then skates like he did in Russia he can easily break 160 and that should be able to contend for gold or at least a medal. If he tries the quad and lands it, which it sounds like he's planning to, I can totally see him Joubert-ing his way to gold. PCS wise he's also not at much of a disadvantage, they will be lower than Takahashi and probably Chan so long as Chan doesn't completely tank, but should be around Oda and Kozuka just looking at the numbers from the men this season. I think the SP is key for Tomas, his FS score at COR is competitive, considering it's as high as Oda and Dai's highest FS scores this season which they earned with landing quads in those programs and he earned it without a quad.

    Amodio's FS score at TEB was higher than Chan's at COR so I think he can beat Chan if Chan continues to fall so much. I wouldn't underestimate Amodio. He could even end up medaling here ala Johnny Weir last year depending on what the others do. His jumps are gorgeous and consistent and the only other men at this event who have been skating even close to their best so far this season are Verner and Kozuka.
    Last edited by silverlake22; 12-07-2010 at 10:33 PM.

  14. #44
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    Hopes?

    1. That Chan skates two clean programs.
    2. That, barring that, Chan is off the podium if three skaters are better.
    3. That, barring that, Chan skates to centre ice for his LP, and instead of skating, concentrates really hard on making the world turn. The judges are so impressed that he still scores high in PCS despite not actually moving for four-and-a-half minutes.

    1. That Suzuki and Czisny skate clean.
    2. That, barring that, Czisny skates clean.
    3. That, barring that, Suzuki skates clean.

    1. The Barazova/Larionov express themselves somehow at any point.
    2. The Moore-towers/Moscovitch are clean
    3. That the duel between Savchenko/Szolkowy and Pang/Tong doesn't peter out.

    1. That Pechelat/Bourzat are not on the podium.
    2. That, barring that, Davis/White reassert themselves at the top with two sterling skates.
    3. That Weaver/Poje remind us not to consign them to the "third-masquerading-as-second" spot.
    4. That Crone/Poirier win bronze (aka, both B/S and C/P are clean and C/P wins.)

  15. #45
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    I'm not sure about Murakami either, hence why I said Dream Podiums . I think Oda will play spoiler here, it seems like most people have predicted he finishes OTP but he has those amazing jumps and could potentially win the event depending on what goes down. Even Amodio I think has a chance to medal, I mean he has been so on with his jumps this far this season and if the other men continue to make mistakes....who knows. You are probably right about Chan and if he skates well he totally deserves to medal, I was just trying to say that if he mops the ice with his butt again he probably doesn't deserve to be up there. I agree about Miki as a near lock for the podium but an interested to see what the judges think of her new SP - I tend to think anything will be an improvement from the old one but you never know with Morozov...
    Oh, sorry I missed that it was what you were hoping for. Bummer - your predictions have been right on and I was really heartened by the idea you were predicting Alissa would be second

    What do you think will happen if all the skaters do their absolute best?

    I'm trying not to do dream podiums this year because I hate to "dream" of any skater coming last. But my dream, as always, is that all the skaters skate their best. And if that happens here is what I think:

    1. Miki _ If she is perfectly on she should get +GOE on all her jumps
    2. Alissa _ She doesn't have the most difficult jumps but she has a solid 3lutz2toe and that coupled with her superb spins, the best stretch and lyrical qualities in the competition should earn her her highest PCS of the night.
    3. Akiko or Carolina. Nobody sells a program better than Akiko and if she is perfect I think the judges will not be able to resist. The judges also can never seem to resist Carolina so if she is perfect and if she lands her 3toe-3toe the judges will reward her.

    I like Murakami and I think Rachael has really improved her presentation this year. I think both have an excellent shot at medalling - maybe even winning! However, I think that if Akiko and Carolina are perfect, it will be obvious how much more mature and musical their skating is than Murakami's and how more refined it is than Rachael's...
    Last edited by Layfan; 12-08-2010 at 10:07 AM.

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