Have you heard of the new Russo-Chinese honeymoon after the Cold War, especially after the 9.11 incident? They are close comrades against the US dominance (anti-terrorism, pushing democracy, etc). Anyway, I'm sure Canadians can't beat Russians in China.
So, will the Red Army arrest those disobedient international judges and send them to a labor camp for life?
ROTFL at nearly all of you not picking Chan as the winner. Have some of you been in a coma for several months or something?
S/S lost their baggage containing their skating shoes and costumes during their flight back to Germany.And if they won`t find their skating shoes back in 3 days ,they will withdraw the GPF.My goodness!I don`t think they will find things back in such a short time.How unlucky they are during the whole year!It seems it`s the will of God that P/Twill win.
My predictions and why:
Men:
1. Patrick Chan--fell 2 times, but oh, those edges!
2. Daisuke--fell 1 time, but slapped himself in the face during footwork.
3. Kozuka--skated clean, but judges felt was "introverted"
4. Tomas--skated clean, but judges think Michael Jackson routine is tacky
5. Florent--see above (but he's been around shorter than Tomas)
6. Nobinari Oda--brought the crowd to its feet with his thrilling performance. But oops--he did three axels and four lutzes, so half of his jumps didn't count.
The next day, a thread will start about how Oda and Kazuka were robbed.
Ladies
1. Miki Ando--came in 6th in the short, but won the long by a huge margin
2. Akiko Suzuki--came in 2nd in both, and did a lovely skate. May have been robbed
3. Carolina Kostner--true, she didn't do hard jumps, but she skates with such speed and line! Won the short.
4. Murakami--probably could have won a medal, but judges didn't want Japanese sweep
5. Rachael--poor Rachael. Skated clean to the naked eye, but judges picked until they found something on her. Also low PCS.
6. Alissa--what a shame the nerves got the best of her.
This is not what I would like to happen--I'd like to see a man decide to take a rest (but not get injured) and have Jeremy there, and I'd like Alissa to win. But I don't see either of those happening.
I played with Men's numbers and came up with placements by various factors. May be interesting for extrapolation and analysis. I will try doing the Ladies later.
By event placement points:
1. Kozuka.......30
2. Takahashi...30
3. Chan..........28
4. Verner........26
5. Oda...........26
6. Amodio.......24
By Total Scores:
1. Kozuka........481.58
2. Chan...........466.73
3. Oda.............462.61
4. Takahashi.....461.86
5. Verner..........445.12
6. Amodio.........443.15
By Scores in a single event:
1. Kozuka........248.07
2. Chan...........239.52
3. Takahashi....234.79
4. Oda............236.52
4a. Kozuka.......233.51
5. Verner.........230.31
6. Amodio........229.38
8. Chan...........227.31
9. Takahashi.....227.07
10. Oda...........226.09
11. Verner........214.81
12. Amodio.......213.99
By Total of Best SP + Best LP
1. Chan..........248.28
2. Kozuka.......248.07
3. Oda...........236.52
4. Takahashi...235.03
5. Verner........230.31
6. Amodio.......229.38
By Lowest SP + Lowest LP
1. Kozuka........233.51
2. Takahashi....226.99
3. Oda............226.09
4. Chan...........225.34
5. Verner.........214.81
6. Amodio........213.77
If 6 points are given for each 1st place, 5 for 2nd, etc....from the above lists:
1. Kozuka........29
2. Chan...........23
3. Takahashi....20
4. Oda............17
5. Verner.........11
6. Amodio.........6
Well, it's all much ado about nothing as the final list is almost exactly the same as the first. Need I do this for the Ladies? I think everybody is having fun doing it however way they like.
Edited to note that without "jump counting" mistakes, Oda could improve his optimal score (Best SP + best LP) but not enough to move up on that list, whereas Chan could improve his worst case scenario score enough to move to 2nd place in that list but not on the final list.
For a statistician like me (majored in it, never practised it), I like to do similar things, but I would not like to jinx my favorites
The only thing I want to tell here, I will be watching very closely the outcome for the men in this event, 4 yeas ago,similar situation (new quadranial), the men who ended 1-2 in the GPF, were Joubert and Takahashi and later at the worlds in Tokyo in 2007, they reapeated as 1-2. The winner here might win again later in ..Tokyo
Therefore, we can conclude the results are fixed in advance.
1.) Verner - with no Lysacek and no Joubert at the GPF this season, he fills the role of the manly man skater (aka he isn't diminutive and asian or morozov-ified ). Comes in 4th or 5th in the SP but scores are close and then skates a clean FS with the quad and the Chinese crowd goes crazy for his MJ, wins overall.
5.) Amodio - first trip to the GPF so he's a little nervous and makes some mistakes. That combined with lower PCS keeps him down this far.
6.) Chan - I'm fine with him winning if he skates clean but if he falls 4 times again in this competition he honestly deserves to be in last, especially considering the 5 other men at this event are extremely talented themselves. So I predict he falls 4 times and this time the judges don't let him off so easy.
My Dream Podiums:
Men:
1.) Verner - with no Lysacek and no Joubert at the GPF this season, he fills the role of the manly man skater (aka he isn't diminutive and asian or morozov-ified ). Comes in 4th or 5th in the SP but scores are close and then skates a clean FS with the quad and the Chinese crowd goes crazy for his MJ, wins overall.
2.) Kozuka - outskates his Japanese teammates and rightfully places ahead of them. His introvertedness and a few mistakes in the FS keep him from winning, but overall he is great.
3.) Takahashi - makes the same mistakes he has been making all season but still sells his programs for all they are worth. His PCS keep him on the podium.
4.) Oda - he makes a mistake in the SP and then his LP is just really boring. A couple of bobbles/counting errors keeps him off the podium.
5.) Amodio - first trip to the GPF so he's a little nervous and makes some mistakes. That combined with lower PCS keeps him down this far.
6.) Chan - I'm fine with him winning if he skates clean but if he falls 4 times again in this competition he honestly deserves to be in last, especially considering the 5 other men at this event are extremely talented themselves. So I predict he falls 4 times and this time the judges don't let him off so easy.
Ladiezz:
1.) Murakami - she's the only one who skates clean and isn't sleep inducing. Extra points for perkiness!
2.) Czisny - clean SP and only one jump mistake in the FS, PCS aren't as high as they were in Canada but her scores are strong enough for silver
3.) Ando - she gets a new SP, but it's still not good, and then does a jumping lesson in the FS, but shows no emotion so her PCS are docked accordingly. Ends up 3rd just because of the quality of her jumps but if it weren't for others mistakes she'd finish lower.
4.) Flatt - skates clean but gets issued a few downgrades and that combined with lowish PCS keeps her behind Ando.
5.) Suzuki - you can't pop your jumps and expect to win a medal. She has an off night with her jumps and even her amazing footwork and energy aren't enough to get her on the podium.
6.) Kostner - her novice level content hurts her, and then she has bobbles in the FS. injury is still clearly affecting her so she need not feel too bad about finishing last.
Im down with your analysis, Silverlake :thumbsup:
Only thing is I'm not so sure Murakami will skate clean - she has yet to do so, no? Still, she seem to be one of the those skaters who can afford a mistake or two. Miki, too, so I can't imagine she will miss the podium - whether it's first, second or third.
'
I hope you are right about Alissa.
Somebody has to be last, which is heartbreaking. I can't help but wonder if it will be Kostner - you are right about her content and all it will take is a few mistakes. Plus, she's injured. I wonder if she'll make it through the whole final. If she does - you can NEVER count her out. The weird thing with this group is that I think any of these ladies could win, depending on what kind of night they all have. If anybody but Miki wins, it will be considered a "surprise victory." But I won't be surprised if any of them win.
As for the men, I just can't see Chan off the podium. I think he'll either build up a considerable lead in the SP and be able to make some mistake in the FS or make a few mistakes in the SP and come back big in the FS....
I think it will be Takahashi, Kozuka and Chan on the podium in whatever order. Again, it will be heartbreaking to see any of these guys last because they are all so good.