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Thread: Predictions

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    Oh, sorry I missed that it was what you were hoping for. Bummer - your predictions have been right on and I was really heartened by the idea you were predicting Alissa would be second

    What do you think will happen if all the skaters do their absolute best?

    I'm trying not to do dream podiums this year because I hate to "dream" of any skater coming last. But my dream, as always, is that all the skaters skate their best. And if that happens here is what I think:

    1. Miki _ If she is perfectly on she should get +GOE on all her jumps
    2. Alissa _ She doesn't have the most difficult jumps but she has a solid 3lutz2toe and that coupled with her superb spins, the best stretch and lyrical qualities in the competition should earn her her highest PCS of the night.
    3. Akiko or Carolina. Nobody sells a program better than Akiko and if she is perfect I think the judges will not be able to resist. The judges also can never seem to resist Carolina so if she is perfect and if she lands her 3toe-3toe the judges will reward her.

    I like Murakami and I think Rachael has really improved her presentation this year. I think both have an excellent shot at medalling - maybe even winning! However, I think that if Akiko and Carolina are perfect, it will be obvious how much more mature and musical their skating is than Murakami's and how more refined it is than Rachael's...
    I'd say at their best:

    1.) Kanako
    2.) Alissa
    3.) Miki
    4.) Akiko
    5.) Rachael
    6.) Carolina (given her injury and limited jump content - could she do all her jumps she could easily be 1st)

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    I'd say at their best:

    1.) Kanako
    2.) Alissa
    3.) Miki
    4.) Akiko
    5.) Rachael
    6.) Carolina (given her injury and limited jump content - could she do all her jumps she could easily be 1st)
    Hmm not sure if if everyone skates their best, Kanako will be first. She isn't immune to URs and I am not sure if they'll put her above Miki if both goes clean, considering Miki is still the veteran and her season has been good so far. I also think the judges will find someway to put Carolina on the podium if she skates clean.

  3. #48
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    Hmm not sure if if everyone skates their best, Kanako will be first. She isn't immune to URs and I am not sure if they'll put her above Miki if both goes clean, considering Miki is still the veteran and her season has been good so far. I also think the judges will find someway to put Carolina on the podium if she skates clean.
    I agree, Miki88. This is at their best and their best - I just don't think Kanako is the best in the field. She COULD be but not yet. And if Carolina does a 3toe-3toe and goes clean it will be enough of an excuse for the judges to put her on the podium....

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    I agree, Miki88. This is at their best and their best - I just don't think Kanako is the best in the field. She COULD be but not yet. And if Carolina does a 3toe-3toe and goes clean it will be enough of an excuse for the judges to put her on the podium....
    Very true. I just meant that maybe a clean Kanako would make the judges goo-goo gaga over the "teenage starlet" and put her ahead of her teammates who are older and less exciting. Who knows. I do agree about Carolina though, not that she would deserve to be on the podium with her content, but the judges love her and usually Euro ladies are held to a lower standard jump wise anyway.

  5. #50
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    Ladies

    Ando
    Flatt
    Murakami
    Kostner
    Suzuki
    Czisny


    Men

    Takahashi
    Chan
    Kozuka
    Verner
    Amodio
    Oda

    Pairs
    Pang/Tong
    Savchenko/Szolkowy
    Bazarova/Larionov
    Iliushechkina/Maisuradze
    Sui/Han
    Moore- Towers/Moscovitch

    Dance

    Davis/White
    Pechalat/Bourzat
    Crone/Poirier
    Bobrova/Soloviev
    Weaver/Poje
    Hoffmann/Zavozin

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Very true. I just meant that maybe a clean Kanako would make the judges goo-goo gaga over the "teenage starlet" and put her ahead of her teammates who are older and less exciting.
    That won't happen. Simply because Murakami's free program is beyond her capacities. Of course she can win IF she skates clean.

    BTW Murakami is having the most attentions from the Japanese media. I agree they are investing on Murakami since Mao is not there. Even Takahashi is put on the back seat.

  7. #52
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    I think if everyone skates their best it will be:

    1. Suzuki
    2. Czisny
    3. Ando- doesnt even do the 3-3s anymore, nor have very high scoring non jump elements, nor is she getting really high PCS. I dont see why she would win if everyone skates their best, even with the pitiful womens field here.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    3. Ando- doesnt even do the 3-3s anymore, nor have very high scoring non jump elements, nor is she getting really high PCS. I dont see why she would win if everyone skates their best, even with the pitiful womens field here.
    Reputation. Miki is a former world champion, which has some benefits. Miki is a fabulous person, but let's face it--even if her PCS is not sky-high, they're quite high for what she's doing on the ice. If Miki skates cleanly, she can and will score very high--like 2009 Worlds, for instance.

  9. #54
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    Ando's PCS have been lower than Suzuki in 3 of her 4 program this years, despite that Suzuki keeps making mistakes Yes they have been too high for what she deserves but they still are lower than some others. Add to that that she isnt even doing the hardest jumps anymore, and her non jump elements arent going to score the highest, and she wont win if the others skate their best, even in this weak depleted field. At the 2009 Worlds she received huge PCS, higher than Rochette and Asada. Since she isnt going to get PCS like that anymore, especialy with her current programs, she wont be scoring that high here even if she does skate her best.

  10. #55
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Very true. I just meant that maybe a clean Kanako would make the judges goo-goo gaga over the "teenage starlet" and put her ahead of her teammates who are older and less exciting. Who knows. I do agree about Carolina though, not that she would deserve to be on the podium with her content, but the judges love her and usually Euro ladies are held to a lower standard jump wise anyway.
    That could be very true and I'm a bit of a sucker for Kanako's effervescence myself... Personally, I hope the judges go gaga over a clean Alissa, too. Her skating maybe more introverted that Kanako's but it is much more elegant and refined.

    Maybe I'm just asking for it - but you are always hoping Verner will win. So I get to hope Alissa will win.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Ando's PCS have been lower than Suzuki in 3 of her 4 program this years, despite that Suzuki keeps making mistakes Yes they have been too high for what she deserves but they still are lower than some others. Add to that that she isnt even doing the hardest jumps anymore, and her non jump elements arent going to score the highest, and she wont win if the others skate their best, even in this weak depleted field. At the 2009 Worlds she received huge PCS, higher than Rochette and Asada. Since she isnt going to get PCS like that anymore, especialy with her current programs, she wont be scoring that high here even if she does skate her best.
    I think the biggest reason of Ando's low PCS is very ineffective and unimpressive SP. The PCS of SP also affects FS. They changed the music and choreography. I also suppose some judges are afraid of Ando's consistency + high TES, and trying to make her look inferior to Suzuki. Nakano was "used" for that purpose two seasons ago.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    That could be very true and I'm a bit of a sucker for Kanako's effervescence myself... Personally, I hope the judges go gaga over a clean Alissa, too. Her skating maybe more introverted that Kanako's but it is much more elegant and refined.

    Maybe I'm just asking for it - but you are always hoping Verner will win. So I get to hope Alissa will win.
    ITA....I love Alyssa. Besides, Kanako's back position reminds me of Yulia Lavrenchuk, and that is NOT a good thing. She sacrifices line and posture for power. I have no clue how any of her jumps receive + GOE's because she has the ugliest line pre-jump and post-jump. Don't believe me, rewatch her SA SP. A lot can be said for spunk, but spunk can only take you so far....look at Alena Leonova.

    btw here are my predictions:

    Men:
    1.Takahashi
    2.Kozuka
    3.Chan
    4.Oda
    5.Verner
    6.Amodio

    Women:
    1.Ando
    2.Czisny
    3.Suzuki
    4.Flatt
    5.Murakami
    6.Kostner

    Pairs:
    1.Savchenko/Szolkowy
    2.Pang/Tong
    3.Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
    4.Bazarova/Larionov
    5/6.Iliushechkina/Maisuradze
    6/5.Sui/Han....both positions really do not matter to me, i just hope the russians place ahead of the chinese.

    Ice Dance:
    1.Davis/White
    2.Pechalat/Bourzat
    3.Bobrova/Soloviev
    4.Crone/Poirier(not too high on them)
    5.Weaver/Poje
    6.Hoffman/Zavozin

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCAngel18 View Post
    ITA....I love Alyssa. Besides, Kanako's back position reminds me of Yulia Lavrenchuk, and that is NOT a good thing. She sacrifices line and posture for power. I have no clue how any of her jumps receive + GOE's because she has the ugliest line pre-jump and post-jump. Don't believe me, rewatch her SA SP. A lot can be said for spunk, but spunk can only take you so far....look at Alena Leonova.
    Murakami's jumps are clearly better than Leonova's. Her 3-3 is the easier version of Kim's (half sarcastically). Amazing speed and great distance, that's what the judges appreciate. "Ugly line" is not designated in the minus GOE criteria. They are considered when he/she is not a judges' pet. Anyone predicting Murakami's placements "objectively" should readjust one or two notches up.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    Murakami's jumps are clearly better than Leonova's. Her 3-3 is the easier version of Kim's (half sarcastically). Amazing speed and great distance, that's what the judges appreciate. "Ugly line" is not designated in the minus GOE criteria. They are considered when he/she is not a judges' pet. Anyone predicting Murakami's placements "objectively" should readjust one or two notches up.
    Yeah, she has the height of Kim in the combo, but a landing position not unlike Jennifer Robinson, again NOT GOOD. Again, I do agree that Murakami's position should be readjusted up, but only because the judges seem to go bonkers over speed. It's kind of like saying Elena Liashenko would do great because she skated SO FAST...it should be about more than speed.

  15. #60
    "Hold an edge and look sexy!" museksk8r's Avatar
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    I gave my Predictions earlier.

    Here are my Dreams:

    Ladies
    1. Kostner
    2. Czisny
    3. Suzuki
    4. Ando
    5. Murakami
    6. Flatt

    Men
    1. Verner
    2. Kozuka
    3. Oda
    4. Takahashi
    5. Amodio
    6. Chan

    Pairs
    1. S/S
    2. I/M
    3. B/L
    4. M-T/M
    5. P/T
    6. S/H

    Dance
    1. D/W
    2. C/P
    3. P/B
    4. B/S
    5. W/P
    6. H/Z

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