How much should U.S. Nationals count for World team selection?

janetfan said:

I respectfully disgree whole-heartedly with this way of thinking.

Winning Natls has absolutely NOTHING to do with your "body of work."

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You misunderstood my post. I was referring to the selection of World/Olympic teams when I mentioned taking into a consideration a skater's recent competitive history. In no way was I saying to judge Nationals based on past performances...That would be silly. The purpose of the National Championships is to crown a National Champion and to give every skater a national ranking. This domestic event in not the SOLE indicator of which skaters could do the best on the international stage at Worlds/Olympics... There is no better way to determine which of your skaters are capable of scoring the best internationally than to watch them on the Grand Prix, at Worlds, Four Continents, etc.

In fact, by making Nationals the SOLE criteria in selecting a World team, it increases the possibilities of the judges needing to "hold up" a skater that BELONGS at Worlds, but may have just bombed at Nationals. If Lysacek had skated poorly at last season's Nationals, you could bet the judges would have been in panic mode trying to keep him in the top 3. There's no reason to put the judges in this position. Let the judges score Nationals based on what happens that day and allow a skater's international competitive history to be considered in selecting teams.

What's all the fuss about? I think it is interesting to debate changing the rules and all that _ but the way some posters are starting to talk you would think USFA had a history of sending unworthy skaters to worlds and the Olympics because they happen to do well at nationals.

That's nonsense. It just so happens that the U.S. skaters who medal at nationals have a long tradition of also medalling at worlds and the Olympics.

Okay, the current bunch of U.S. ladies have yet to medal at worlds.

But who among the U.S. ladies does anyone think would have performed better at the Olympics last year than Mirai and Rachael? They were great. Or should we have sent Sasha because she won the silver four years ago and Ashley because she made the final? Turns out nationals was a pretty good indicator of how the U.S. ladies team did at the Olympics.

This year, if Alissa bombs at nationals, should we send her because she became the first U.S. lady to win a GP event in three years? If Mirai bombs should we send her because she was fourth at the Olympics? I think if Alissa and Mirai falter at nationals the USFA has every right to wonder if they will falter at worlds.

On the other hand, let's say Alissa wins and Mirai is second. Should we send Rachael because she has earned a reputation for being "consistent." I'm sure so many people would say yes. But I think that would be horribly unfair because if Alissa has had a good GP series and then aces nationals she will have more than proved that THIS YEAR she is on the up and has earned the right to prove she can do it at worlds.

People have suggested the U.S. should take a look at "the whole body" to determine who would likely do best internationally. Frankly, I think that would be pretty difficult with the current U.S. ladies. ALL of the U.S. ladies have performed erratically on the world stage over the past year _ including Reliable Rachael, who failed to make the GP final last year and bombed at worlds. Last year everyone thought Rachael was the Great Hope for winning back the three spots and it turned out she wasn't. So I say let her earn her world team spot at nationals again - which I have no doubt she will be able to do.

gkelly said:

Not will. Might. The rules have not changed this year. The rules do allow the committee to consider naming a skater to the world team without them competing at Nationals. Nationals is still the most important determinant, but other considerations are allowed and are spelled out in terms of importance.

As of this year, I think the only US skaters who would be considered for the world team if they have to skip Nationals would be Davis/White.

If Flatt or Czisny medals at the GPF, they would also put themselves into consideration even if they have to skip Nationals. But it wouldn't guarantee that they would be chosen.

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That's exactly my point that GPs and GPF should be factored into the decision for selecting a Worlds Team. With the exception of Mau, whose fans said she was just testing her new program, alll the other contestants were determined to win their slots and the GPF.

There seems to be alot of mentioning that the Select Committe might not be trustworthy. That and incompetence would worry me, but I believe that some cttee should make this decision. Do we know who the members will be? and what is their expertise in Figure Skating? A lucky top two placements at Nationals does not get me as the best way to handle this.

Layfan said:

What's all the fuss about? I think it is interesting to debate changing the rules and all that _ but the way some posters are starting to talk you would think USFA had a history of sending unworthy skaters to worlds and the Olympics because they happen to do well at nationals...

People have suggested the U.S. should take a look at "the whole body" to determine who would likely do best internationally. Frankly, I think that would be pretty difficult with the current U.S. ladies. ALL of the U.S. ladies have performed erratically on the world stage over the past year _ including Reliable Rachael, who failed to make the GP final last year and bombed at worlds. Last year everyone thought Rachael was the Great Hope for winning back the three spots and it turned out she wasn't. So I say let her earn her world team spot at nationals again - which I have no doubt she will be able to do.

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I totally understand that the US Ladies field is wide open and nobody really stands out. I also understand your point that the USFSA doesn't have a history of sending unworthy skaters to Worlds/Olympics. But even if a country has a lot of depth and could get respectable placements from just about any skater, they should always aim to send their best team possible. And in some disciplines, sometimes it is questionable whether or not that is going to happen. There was a very real possibility of Ryan Bradley medaling at Nationals last year ahead one of the three guys who had been the CLEAR standouts for the US internationally... Sure, Bradley could have had a respectable finish at the Olympics. But would sending Bradley mean the US had sent their best Mens team? No. That's mainly why I'd like to see a modification in the rules. I think we should eliminate the possibility of skaters making a major international team because they caught a lucky break at Nationals.

I also think it would alleviate some of the stress for the top athletes. They should be trying to peak at Worlds, not at Nationals, but it's hard for them to do that because Nationals ends up being even more important than Worlds.

Layfan said:

On the other hand, let's say Alissa wins and Mirai is second. Should we send Rachael because she has earned a reputation for being "consistent." I'm sure so many people would say yes. But I think that would be horribly unfair because if Alissa has had a good GP series and then aces nationals she will have more than proved that THIS YEAR she is on the up and has earned the right to prove she can do it at worlds.

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And what if Zawadski buries them all, and Rachael is second. What then?

What you are saying cries out for someone to make that decision. I have my own views and each fan has theirs, so I do think that a Committee should make that decision.

Joesitz said:

And what if Zawadski buries them all, and Rachael is second. What then?

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If that happens, I think the world team would be Zawadski and Flatt.

If someone who got to Nationals for the very first time at any level, by placing in the top four but not first at sectionals and has never competed internationally should happen to place second just by skating clean while almost everyone else suffers from flu or ice surface malfunction during the event or other fluke circumstances, then I think they'd think twice before sending an untried medalist instead of the next best finisher with recent international medals.

gkelly said:

If someone who got to Nationals for the very first time at any level, by placing in the top four but not first at sectionals and has never competed internationally should happen to place second just by skating clean while almost everyone else suffers from flu or ice surface malfunction during the event or other fluke circumstances, then I think they'd think twice before sending an untried medalist instead of the next best finisher with recent international medals.

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Yes. And this is why the rules need to be modified, because right now it would be considered almost "scandalous" for the USFSA to skip over someone and select a lower placing skater. It's just not something they do, even though times could arise when maybe they should.

If Agnes Zawadzki (note correct spelling) wins Nationals, then she is guaranteed to go to Worlds as the national champion per the rulebook.

I have heard over the years that the majority of U.S. skaters and coaches prefer Nationals placement to be the main determining factor for Worlds selection because they are all meeting on an even playing field (same judges and technical panel).

Information about USFS' International Committee and ICMS: http://www.usfsa.org/Story.asp?type=leadership&id=846
ETA: I don't believe all the names of the committee members are published online, but I know it's a mix of ISU Championship/international/national judges, coaches, and athlete representatives.

Joesitz said:

And what if Zawadski buries them all, and Rachael is second. What then?

What you are saying cries out for someone to make that decision. I have my own views and each fan has theirs, so I do think that a Committee should make that decision.

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Then it should be Agnes and Rachael.
If Mirai, Ashley and Alissa are "buried" by Agnes what does that say about the competitive mettle of Mirai, Ashley and Alissa?

Those three have been to enough nationals that if they get buried by a girl who is there for the first time it will say a lot about their preparedness and competitiveness.

Or should we look at their history? Okay, but Mirai has managed to medal at a grand total of one _ one _ international event since her senior debut. Ashley has a rocky GP, not to mention that if she ends up third or lower at the nationals it will be what, her fourth disappointing nats in a row? And let's forget that Ashely was 15th when she went to worlds. And Alissa - well, she had hardly proven herself to be a reliable worlds competitor.

I see absolutely no solid argument to send any of these three girls _ as much as I enjoy their skating _ to worlds if Agnes is the national champion.

It's not that I don't see logic in your arguments, and they are interesting. I'm just questioning whether there is whole lot of evidence in history of U.S. skating that the current system doesn't work. In practice, I think that most of the time the best American skaters medal at nationals.

I think I'm sounding a bit inflexible but the current rules DO allow for history to be taken into account.

UFS could decide to bump Agnes if say, she is second, because her GP series was not stellar and other American girls medalled. I say that I don't think any of the other American girls have had such an amazing history that they should be chosen to bump off Agnes. USF could decide differently.

What if Rachael or Alissa win the GP final and finish third behind Agnes? Okay. Then I could see an argument starting to be made because Rachael or Alissa winning the final would be huge. And the rules do allow UFS to take that into account. Frankly, I find it highly unlikely that if Rachael is solid enough to win the GP final, she will be defeated at Nats by Agnes. I think that would be a highly unusual situation and it seems to be that the USF rules are there to consider highly unusual situations.

There was a very real possibility of Ryan Bradley medaling at Nationals last year ahead one of the three guys who had been the CLEAR standouts for the US internationally... Sure, Bradley could have had a respectable finish at the Olympics. But would sending Bradley mean the US had sent their best Mens team? No. That's mainly why I'd like to see a modification in the rules. I think we should eliminate the possibility of skaters making a major international team because they caught a lucky break at Nationals.

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Says you. I would have been delighted to see Ryan at the Olympics. Maybe he would have finished ahead of Jeremy, who bombed. It is certainly not written in the rules that Ryan should never ever be allowed to go to the Olympics no matter how well he does at Nats. You "mainly" think that the rules should be changed because Ryan almost made the Olympic team? :disagree:

gold12345 said:

Yes. And this is why the rules need to be modified, because right now it would be considered almost "scandalous" for the USFSA to skip over someone and select a lower placing skater. It's just not something they do, even though times could arise when maybe they should.

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And I don't think they would skip over a newcomer if that person medaled by skating great at Nationals. That would be a breakthrough performance and I'm sure the international committee would be delighted to welcome a new star to the international team.

They sent Mroz to 2009 Worlds in similar circumstances. He did, of course, already have junior national and international credentials.

Come to think of it, with the new ISU rules, a newcomer with no international experience couldn't be sent to Four Continents or Worlds without first earning the new minimum international score for senior championshiops, which isn't very taxing for any US skater who would medal at Nationals in normal circumstances. USFS would first have to send them to Junior Worlds (if age eligible) or to some minor ISU-sanctioned competition held between Nationals and Worlds to earn that score. So at best they could only be named to the world team provisionally.

If the standard of competition at Nationals was so bad (because of withdrawals and fluke disasters from the proven skaters) that the silver medalist didn't even earn the ISU minimum score at Nationals, then they'd probably just write off the whole senior Nationals competition as a fluke and use other means to choose the world team.

I don't expect that to happen in my lifetime. But you never know.

^^^^^
I appreciate and like what you are saying. You are discussing the skaters without reference to the Nationals and using past performances as part of the criteria. I think a Committe would do the same. btw, both Agnes and Armin both had international experience in Juniors.

Joesitz said:

And what if Zawadski buries them all, and Rachael is second. What then?

What you are saying cries out for someone to make that decision.

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IMHO there is no decision to make. Agnes and Rachael go to worlds. What do we need a committee for?

Joesitz said:

You would have to be blind not to know who are the most competitively best skaters the US has.

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gold12345 said:

Exactly!

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I am astonished at this claim, and in awe of your certitude.

Speaking for myself, I do not know who the best lady skater in the U.S. is.

I am not completely sure who the best gentleman is.

I have not the slightest clue who the best pairs team is. Maybe "the committee" knows, but I don't. To tell the truth, the team that finished highest in the grand prix, I never heard of before.

Davis and White are the best dancers at the moment, but others are catching up.

We'll have to wait and see how it all sorts itself out in January.

Actually this whole argument gets mind-boggling. I agree that US Natls are extremely political and Sasha was cheated more than once by US judges playing favorites.

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You thinks so? I always got the feeling they were ready to reward her but she never let them because she kept splatting in the LP. After all, the judges were willing to place her her first how many times in the SP? One even gave her a perfect 6.0. for Swan Lake in 2004 even though she fell. (Although I do wish she had gotten a 6.0 for her SP that year. It was awe-some and the worlds judges gave her a bunch of 6.0s for it. I've always wondered if the judge who gave her the 6.0. for her LP was regretting not having given her one for the SP.

janetfan said:

When Sasha beat Michele two years running before the Intl judges it was because they were using the new IJS and the CoP.
Remember a fall does not disqualify a skater. Yes, it gets ridiculous with Chan falling on his *** 8 times in two GP events - but let's not forget Chan falls more in two events than Sasha did for the whole season.

Michelle just couldn't touch Sasha once spins and spiral POSITIONS were part of the equation. When MIF and other areas were considered we have to concede Rafael did nothing for Michelle. When we saw Michelle in 2004-5 it was still all Frank and 6.0 skating we were seeing. Michelle simply was not an effective CoP skater.

So the US judges screwed up giving Michelle those titles - Sasha might have carried the weight of a US title to a WC. Those last two years Kwan did not come close to another WC and even missed the podium.

Remember , I am one who believes that politics - wheteher 6.0 or CoP rule skating. BTW, I think reputation scoring is even worse in the CoP era. Sarah never would have won over Irina or Michelle in the CoP reputation era - even though she won the LP that night.

I don't think skating has progressed at all under CoP. It is exactly the same as it has always been because the exact same people are running it. They prefer pageants to competitions. They judge almost exclusively by reputation - making t clear skating is not a true sport based on fairness. And the politics are as much a part of the game as ever.

I like it - but take it for what it is worth.

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True enough about Sasha's spins and Michelle's struggles to adapt to COP, but also Sasha skated better at both those worlds than she did at nationals. She stayed on her feet throughout at least.

(Michelle did make the podium in 2004, btw. She was third. I wouldn't say she didn't come close to a WC. Who know if it hadn't been for the screw up with finishing after her music in the SP... Sasha was always capable of beating Michelle and she skated well enough to finish one step in the podium above Michelle at worlds. But at Nationals, she didn't. It's not like Michelle got spanked at 2004 worlds. I miss the days when it was disappointing that our national champion only won a world bronze. )

Layfan said:

True enough about Sasha's spins and Michelle's struggles to adapt to COP, but also Sasha skated better at both those worlds than she did at nationals. She stayed on her feet throughout at least.

(Michelle did make the podium in 2004, btw. She was third. I wouldn't say she didn't come close to a WC. Who know if it hadn't been for the screw up with finishing after her music in the SP... Sasha was always capable of beating Michelle and she skated well enough to finish one step in the podium above Michelle at worlds. But at Nationals, she didn't. It's not like Michelle got spanked at 2004 worlds. I miss the days when it was disappointing that our national champion only won a world bronze. )

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Michelle did skate well at Natls - but even her biggest fans will admit the US judges were still heavily 6.0 oriented - as opposed to the Intl judges. I always thought a clean Sasha should be placed ahead of a clean Michelle.

All things considered, Sasha, from a CoP perspective was a more complete skater. When the change came Michelle was just too old and had physical problems. Also, it must be considered that Rafael did nothing for her.......

I have heard he made her jumps better but see that as pure Kwandom BS.

My question might be who did Rafael ever train - I mean create - as opposed to being a "Tat" and just taking over an already accomplished skater?

Maybe Rafael has trained many great champions - but I can't think of any. Giving him credit for Michelle and Mao is like saying Morozov created Shizuka. Not really the way I see it........

janetfan said:

My question might be who did Rafael ever train - I mean create - as opposed to being a "Tat" and just taking over an already accomplished skater?

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Alexander Abt.

gkelly said:

Alexander Abt.

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That's it....his entire resume ?

How long has he been coaching in California? 10 years ? Maybe longer? Has he produced one skater of note in that time?

janetfan said:

That's it....his entire resume ?

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According to his Wikipedian page he also coached Hovhannes Mkrtchyan.

But how did this thread on the relative importance of U.S. Nationals get turned around to, let's bash Raphael Arutunian?

Layfan said:

True enough about Sasha's spins and Michelle's struggles to adapt to COP, but also Sasha skated better at both those worlds than she did at nationals. She stayed on her feet throughout at least.

(Michelle did make the podium in 2004, btw. She was third. I wouldn't say she didn't come close to a WC. Who know if it hadn't been for the screw up with finishing after her music in the SP... Sasha was always capable of beating Michelle and she skated well enough to finish one step in the podium above Michelle at worlds. But at Nationals, she didn't. It's not like Michelle got spanked at 2004 worlds. I miss the days when it was disappointing that our national champion only won a world bronze. )

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Michelle was second in the free skate after Shizuka in 2004. She wasn't skating clean, doubling one of her jump and yet placed higher than Sasha. On top of that, there was some crazy guy running around in tutu and startled poor Michelle.
Sasha was never capable of beating Michelle if Michelle skated like she did at Nationals.

Mathman said:

IMHO there is no decision to make. Agnes and Rachael go to worlds. What do we need a committee for?

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I am sure the Committee will rubber stamp them, too, so you can be pleased. How adament you are about the one competition to pronounce the Best Team to Send to the Worlds. The Committee for what ever reason will also choose the results of the one competition regardless if the think a skater is better for the championship.

I am astonished at this claim, and in awe of your certitude.

Speaking for myself, I do not know who the best lady skater in the U.S. is.

I am not completely sure who the best gentleman is.

I have not the slightest clue who the best pairs team is. Maybe "the committee" knows, but I don't. To tell the truth, the team that finished highest in the grand prix, I never heard of before.

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and why should you? Skaters who have been in competition know who the best skaters are. Even in Luxembourg.


[

We'll have to wait and see how it all sorts itself out in January.

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So why not eliminate all competitions as well as the Committee?