Canadian Nationals Predictions
And the race is on! I thought I'd start a predictions thread to get everyone talking..Now that Rochette is out of the running, who's the favorite for the top three spots? Let's go people...Will it be Chan,Reynolds, Sawyer? And what about pairs? And dance, now that it's wide open? Nationals might turn out to be a very exciting and unpredictable event..Any thoughts?
Wicked Yankee Girl
Dance is going to be really interesting. I'm not really up on Canadian dance, so I'll take some uninformed guesses:
Conventional wisdom would say, I think
1. Crone / Poirier- much as I hate to say it, I think it is theirs to lose, despite having an annoying SD that doesn't entirely work. Their FD will pull them through.
2. Weaver / Poje (if W/P beat C/P at the GPF, all bets are off!) Their SD is my preference over C/P, but their FD will lose it for them even in the unlikely event that they won the SD.
3. Paul / Islam -but they have to get a better handle on their SD. They have completely blown it twice. Their FD at Skate Canada was excellent though. Furthermore, Islam's back injury has to have gotten better, the one that caused them to withdraw from CoR.
4. Ralph / Hill- If P/I screw up the SD, they could be overtaken by R/H. Or not. R/H have not generally impressed this year. It didn't help that they finished up last year behind H-M/C at 4CC's.
5 &6. maybe Arnold / Trojek? maybe Harvey / Gagnon?
These two teams are an any given day matchup for me, but they are significantly below 1-4
Any body else that's excellent from Challenge that I missed?
I'll put in my predictions.
Men - I like Chan, Reynolds then Sawyer. Must say I loved Nam in junior at the challenge
Women - Phaneuf, Samson, Lacoste in any order, enjoyed Grenier and DeSantis at challenge, could maybe become a factor, long shot. Najarro if she skated clean could come in top 6 or so. Missed the junior women, hope they skated cleaner than the seniors.
Pairs - Towers/Moscovitch are my favorite, sorry missed the juniors at challenge
Dance - Crone/Poirier, Weaver/Poje (not my favorite but will hold their spot), Ralph/Hill, Paul/Islam (hate their short dance but love their freedance) Like Orford/Williams, Hasegawa's, Oliveira/Hockley, Poulin/Servant in juniors in any order, not sold on Beaudrea/Breton yet - his posture bother me.
I think that is just about right. The only thing I'd add is that it could be any one of Ralph/Hill, Arnold/Trojek, and Harvey/Gagnon in positions 4, 5, 6. Top 3 are definitely ahead of the next 3. Then it's a bit of mess. Many of the Junior teams would beat the lower Senior teams, at least the ones I saw at Challenge.
Originally Posted by dorispulaski
About the Juniors:
Originally Posted by from the sidelines
Orford/Williams: she's really very good, but he skates like a cowboy. I wasn't a fan of what I saw at Challenge, and I really don't believe they should have won. They have speed and power in spades, but are missing artistry, musicality, and finesse.
Hasegawa's: I really like this team. Their coaches have fixed their horrible posture issues from last year, and they look so much better. I hope they medal somewhere.
Oliveira/Hockley: I think they are suffering from "same old, same old" syndrome. From watching them at Challenge, they have improved and have a better flow this year. But they don't look new and interesting because they skate to the same fluffy, overly cheery music every year. And she needs to get a different dress for the Short Dance. She is a beautiful, vibrant young lady who looks about 30 pounds heavier than she is in that ghastly yellow dress.
Poulin/Servant: I think this team should have won Challenge. They are continuing to improve after having a great year last year. They have a lovely mix of both technique and artistry. I expect they will do well at Nationals.
Beaudry/Breton: I really liked their FD. She looks gorgeous, and he's not that hard on the eyes, either. Their program is well suited to them, and they have made just a ton of improvement over last year. They are clearly a good team.
And let's not forget that there are others that can vie for top 5. I don't think we should use Challenge scores as a marker of potential, since having watched the event, there was clearly something more than a little odd with the calling, especially in the short dance but also in the free dance. Some good teams were buried in the standings. Last year's bronze medalists, perhaps the most notable example, who also had 2 JGP's this year, finished in 15th spot, and barely qualified. I certainly wouldn't under-estimate them.
I agree with the comment about Carswell and Doleman. I think they warranted a bit better result. They may have had power issues, it was difficult to tell on Skate TV but the Tech did not give them very many level 4's. Maybe the difficulty wasn't there but I certainly enjoyed their programs.
With Western and Eastern Challenge merged as one, I think the Nationals will be a repeat of Challenge only with a few less teams. Not sure if I like that format. I suppose it's all about which teams will show the most improvement between now and Nationals.
Just for fun, I had a look at the Junior results to see if anything would change between the old Western/Eastern and the current system. Interesting. The results, or teams moving to Nationals, would be exactly the same. The Western and Eastern each normally took 8 teams each to Nationals. 16 teams in total. The 16th team last week was Smyl Joly/Behnia. In both old and new system, all 8 Western teams would go through. In Eastern Challenge, probably the same teams would be left behind. The perception in the old system was that somehow Western was super easy, and Eastern was super competitive. Somehow all the better teams were in the East, and not the best teams would make it through to Nationals. This year, there would be no difference between the results, and Western just had 8 strong teams. The impact at Junior would be that Smyl Joly/Behnia would be going to Junior Nationals, and there would be 4 flights at Nationals instead of 3.
Originally Posted by dcr
Novice is even more interesting. There were 12 teams that would have competed Western, and only 10 that would have competed Eastern. Of the top 16 teams moving to Nationals, 8 would have been Western and 8 would have been Eastern. Again, there would be no difference in the results in old and new system. Except Robitaille/Barthe would be going to Junior Nationals, and there would be 4 flights instead of 3 at Junior Nationals.
So, perhaps the perception that used to be, is no longer relevant. With good training centres in BC and Waterloo, and some in between in Alberta, it balances out Quebec, Scarboro, Barrie and Ottawa. Then the question becomes what is the real benefit of putting the events together? From what I can see, there is a lot of drama and pressure at Challenge for teams to qualify, but it is sort of ant-climatic for Nationals. For Juniors, the push will be to place top 5, and perhaps get an invite to Junior Worlds. But generally the building momentum is really to Challenge, and not to Nationals. Teams will try to improve to finish higher in the standings for the season, but it's not quite the same feel as a long build to Nationals. It will be interesting to see if the rankings change meaningfully at Nationals vs Challenge.
So, all you know V-M will not skate at Nationals? Will they compete this seaon or in next at all or they said they will go pro?
I believe V/M are for sure out for Nationals. However, it is still possible they may go to 4CC and Worlds. Other posts around forums have quoted Shpilband as saying that Tessa is back on the ice for therapy, but not yet for training, but their programs were done before her surgery. Because I love this team so much, I really, really hope that they take the full season off, and then reveal their new program when they are completely healed and fully trained. We'll miss the SD, but I'd just really love to see them get a full season out of what sounds like a really cool free dance. V/M have said on a number of occasions that they will take competitive skating decisions one year at a time, and they don't feel they are done yet. Realistically, Worlds is in London, Ontario in 2013, which is their home-town. I'm banking on them staying until at least 2013, and just maybe the Olympics in 2014.
Originally Posted by npa
OK< so you didnt have officiall information about withdawall. Thank you!
Originally Posted by NorthernDancers
I dont think they need to retun, if they will miss all this season - C-P will be on podium at this year WCh and what place could V-M take next season? I hope you all will be surprises at Nationals
It is possible that C/P will be on a podium at Worlds, but it is just as possible, and maybe more so, they aren't. They are still a very young team, and nowhere in the same league as V/M or D/W. Next year is a whole new year. If V/M come back fully recovered, rested, and trained, I don't think there is a team that can touch them, except for maybe D/W. They are special and in a league of their own. The kind of quality, unison, musicality, edges, etc. etc. that is V/M is unique, and once in a generation. Because of their age, I think they would still have much more to explore and grow in the world of ice dance. Ice dance is one of those sports where people improve with age and experience. (ex. D/L, W/L, B/K, D/S, etc. etc.)
Originally Posted by npa
1) Chan - no brainer, lol, barring a total and complete meltdown, ie. falling fifteen times.
2) Reynolds - probably. He could lose it though, if his jumps aren't on. Usually that doesn't happen in both the SP AND the LP though, so I think he's pretty safe here.
3) Sawyer - I wish he had a better chance of coming in 2nd, but I think this is where he's going to end up, unless Reynolds skates poorly in both programs and Sawyer goes clean. He needs to go clean with his lower technical content. OTOH, if Sawyer bombs both HIS programs, someone else could take this spot from him (Russell, Ten?)
4) Russell - Last year he didn't beat Shawn even when he was clean and Shawn had mistakes (IIRC). Unless he's had major improvements, I don't think he's going to medal yet. I wonder why Russell didn't get any GP assignments though.
5) Ten - I think he's going to be behind Russell because of the way he skated during the GP season. I think he had one good LP, but the rest was lackluster.
I don't know after this.. I don't know much about the other men except Balde, who could be a factor, and Marc-Andre Craig who seems to have skated less well in recent years.
1) Phaneuf - this isn't a given though. Lacoste could take it from her if she makes too many mistakes.
2) Lacoste - Likely will be here ahead of Samson, but this isn't a given either.
3) Samson - I think she's better than anyone else except for Phaneuf and Lacoste.
I can't say after this. It'll probably be DeSanctis, Grenier, and Charbonneau in some order, but since I'm not too familiar with them and may have forgot about someone important, I won't make any official predictions after #3.
1) Moore-Towers/Moscovitch - This isn't a given either, but they HAVE established themselves as Canada's top pair this fall at least.
2) Lawrence/Swiegers - They skated well this fall and are pretty consistent.
3) Brodeur/Mattatall - This team could also come in 2nd, but with Mylene's frequent falls, I think they might end up behind L&S. However, if they have a clean skate, they skate beautifully and could even come in 1st. I'm just not sure how likely a clean skate is for them.
4) Duhamel/Radford - I've only seen them once this season. They still looked rocky, like they were getting used to the partnership. There's something mismatched about them but maybe it is just the newness and they will look more matched later. I don't think they can challenge for the title here and unless they have made great improvements since I saw them in October, or other teams mess up, I think they will be hard pressed to medal too.
After this, idk.
1) Crone/Poirier - I thought this would be a given, but after the SD at the GP Final, it's looking a bit more open. I agree with the poster who said the FD would carry them, though.
2) Weaver/Poje - It'll be close. I think they may lead after the SD and lose it in the FD.
3) Paul/Islam - I think they'll get bronze if the back injury is better. They skated beautifully at Skate Canada.
4) Ralph/Hill - Unfortunately, I don't think they have great programs this season and may not be able to hold off P&I.
5) Arnold/Trojek - I'm putting them here, but I'm unfamiliar with the lower Canadian dance teams so maybe someone else could beat them for this spot. They could also beat Ralph/Hill, I guess. I've only seen A&T once.
Except for Skate Canada, SC has no control over who gets the senior GP slots. Season best lists and ISU rankings determines who get them.
Originally Posted by blue_idealist
Most of his international experience that Joey has is at Nebelhorn ( 4 times there ) . Unfortunately he has never finished top 5 there ( hence no ISU ranking points ) and Nebelhorn scores ( or any senior B scores ) are not considered for season best lists. He only has a small number of points from a low placment at last year's 4CC in a depleted field.
Russell was only 59th on the 2009-10 season best list behind Ten who was 48th. So Ten was always ahead of Russell in the pecking order as far as GP assignments go.
Russell did not skate well in Thornhill this summer, his score being lower than Balde's in Quebec summer score. Not good when you consider that was Balde's first competition in over a year. Perhaps all those factors meant that Russell was not going to get Skate Canada unless he did super well at Nebelhorn.
I won't quote your post because it is very well done but some notes.
Pairs: I think Jones/Gaskell will finish 5th at nationals and secure the last national spot.
Ladies: I would include Najarro ( limited in the jump category but consistently gets good PCS and levels on other elements ) in that that group of ladies that could finish 4th. That said I favour Adriana to finish 4th based on the fact that she is simply the most consistent of that group of ladies.
Men: 3rd to fifth places will be a bloodbath. Don't forget Rogozine in that mix. He is very consistent.
Constable , Costume Police
Can I take this OT for a moment to ask what Balde's injury was ? I know he had a disaster at Challenge, but boy, I'd love to see him bounce back after his year off..even if that mostly comes next year. He's got that inner spark that commands your attention.