Canadian Nationals Predictions

Go Patrick!

Go gopatrick!

All I have to say to all the Chan bashers is "Eat your heart out!"

Thanks, mariposa, for point out that Diane Szmiett wasn't in the starting list. I was trying to figure out why Daniela-Bella Favot was in the starting list now, since she was the first alternate. It's too bad that Diane isn't here, for whatever reason, but it's nice to see Daniela-Bella here, since she missed the cut by only 0.16 points or something like that.

gopatrick said:

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Since I am quite lazy these days, I also inlude an interesting GPF experience of a friend here when I am in mood to share: She was unfortunately surrounded by Japanese/Pro-Japanese fans. She had to watched Patrick's SP along with the jinxing and chanting "fall fall fall, fall on your butt" from those fans. Yeah, thanks for your good karma towards Patrick

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That is very upsetting and certainly displays poor sportsmanship from the Japanese fans. It also suggests that they are jealous/frightened for their favorites or Patrick.......................They were obviously trying to distract him from his program but it didn't work..................Go Patrick!!!!!!

about Paul/Islam

I was super impressed withhtis team at their GP event this season - but nobody seems to think they have a chance to upset W/P at Canadians - why is that ? do they lack in the tecnical department because surely in the area of musiclaity , expression and purity of skating they excel .
Thaks for any imput you can give me
Gottadance

gottadance said:

I was super impressed withhtis team at their GP event this season - but nobody seems to think they have a chance to upset W/P at Canadians - why is that ? do they lack in the tecnical department because surely in the area of musiclaity , expression and purity of skating they excel .
Thaks for any imput you can give me
Gottadance

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1. Major issues with the Golden Waltz. In both competitions, they had low levels there whereas W/P have maintained very good levels throughout their SD.

2. Ice command and performance is lacking compared to W/P.

3. The general feeling that while they may leap forth soon, W/P deserve a chance to go to Worlds. PCS will be ahead for W/P.

I know that I'm not counting on P&I to beat W&P this year, mainly because P&I couldn't do the Golden Waltz at SC, and then not only still couldn't do it very well at CoR, then they also fell completely apart after a fall in the midline step and finished last in the SD there, and then withdrew, citing an injured back for Islam. W&P, OTOH, made the GPF, and they did not finish last there. In fact, they were within 3.5 points of C&P. More, W&P had significant, visible errors in both GPF programs, whereas C&P appeared to have made no gross, easily visible errors. So C&P and W&P still looked quite close to international judges at the GPF.

P&I are young-perhaps next year. Their FD, only seen at SC, was quite nice.

Another consideration would be whether Islam has recovered from his back injury, what's his current condition, and have P&I been able to have sufficient time to recover and still get in enough training time?

gottadance said:

I was super impressed withhtis team at their GP event this season - but nobody seems to think they have a chance to upset W/P at Canadians - why is that ? do they lack in the tecnical department because surely in the area of musiclaity , expression and purity of skating they excel .
Thaks for any imput you can give me
Gottadance

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I actually think that there is a legitimate chance of them beating out Weaver and Poje, especially since W/P have a tendency to tense up in high pressure situations. Technically, Paul and Islam's FD has a really high base value. It was actually higher than Crone and Poiriers was at Skate Canada (although C/P may have had an illegal element, I'm not sure). The biggest issue with P/I is that we simply haven't seen them enough to really predict how they will perform. At SC, they had a huge problem with the golden waltz, but that might have just been a fluke, or nerves. It was, after all, their very first senior event of any kind. And I don't think its fair to judge them on their performance at Cup of Russia. Regardless of what they may have said in interviews, I think that Alexandra's injury, which was severe enough to make them withdraw before the FD, impacted their SD performance. Assuming that she is fully recovered, I doubt they will have as many problems with the SD as they did there. As others have said, though, if there's going to be a problem with these two, it probably will come on the golden waltz, since they have not had the time that basically every other team has had to learn it.

Personally, I adore both W/P and P/I, and would like to see them both skate at worlds, but with C/P there and V/M back in the picture, there's really not a good chance of that happening. I would still have to assume that if they skate clean, W/P will get that third spot. They've been out of worlds for too long, and they missed the Olympics by such a small margin, so I would love to see them get there. I just think it'll be a shame for P/I to miss worlds. I love both of their programs, and It's a shame to see such good products go to waste.

I was actually wondering if anyone thinks that P/I would consider a return to Jr. Worlds if they don't qualify for seniors. I know that they are still age eligeable, and I'm sure Skate Canada would encourage them to go. One would have to assume that they would have a really good shot at winning the gold, but they didn't compete at JGP's this season, so are they allowed?

IMO It isn't very feasible for any of the junior eligible dancers who have competed as seniors to do Jr Worlds, because they would need to have a new SD with the Viennese Waltz in it rather than the Golden Waltz.
I think, but am not sure, that it is still allowed, though? Certainly, the pair Takahashi / Tran competed as both seniors and juniors, and plan to compete at both junior and senior Worlds. But there are so few pairs that sometimes the rules about what competitions you can enter are a little different than for singles and dance.

I think it was Paul who was injured..first reported as back, then clarified as a rib injury that caused pain / reaction in her back as well..

I wouldn't expect them to overtake W/P, but I suspect they've left R/H in their dust ,and will place ahead of them (if she's better ). But I think they did get some good marks at SC, so I'm interested in what the differential will be between them and W/P and C/P, and between them and R/H..and hope everyone is healthy and skates well so that we'll know what that differential means.

For example, I'm not entirely sure what went on with the GW, so I want to see how they do with it at Nationals. IIRC , at SC they recieved a pretty good level on one section, but they had a goof where their blades just glanced, or something - right at the transition between the end of the other section and the beginning of their footwork.

I couldn't see their SD at CoR due to my livestreaming difficulties (%#@&**!) but if they were fighting injury ,I wouldn't consider that result definitive , either. Of course, there is often a strategic element to mid-competition withdrawals , but I wouldn't put theirs down to being only strategic .

I'm not making excuses for them ,or secretly rooting for them over W/P, but I am fascinated by them. They've done so much in a short time, I'm always curious to see if ( or how much ) they've improved since the last time I saw them , wondering how long they can keep up that rate of improvement.

I think W/P are better than they've often been given credit for, but think they've shot themselves in the foot with their very generic FD this year.

Edit : Skatingfan - you were posting while I was typing... I completely agree about P/I's chances for worlds... esp. since there's a good likelhood that I/K will get there. Of course that's the situation W/P suffered with the last couple of years..

I for one don't think Paul and Islam will beat Weaver and Poje. I mean, Weaver and Poje were ahead of Crone and Poirier in the SD at the GP Final. That's kind of saying Paul and Islam might be on the same relative level as Crone and Poirier, which just isn't true. Even before their withdrawal, Paul and Islam weren't doing so well at their second GP. I know she was injured, but they were near last in the SD before withdrawing. Do I think they will beat Ralph and Hill? Quite likely..

Here's P&I's Cup of Russia SD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRquAWq8NXw

One problem with it is that it is one of the wangoes.
Their levels in the GW weren't that bad, but their GOE is negative. For one thing, they skated it very, very slow. Skating it to a tango doesn't help either.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gprus2010/gprus10_IceDance_SD_Scores.pdf

They were eighth of eight competitors in the SD.

They had 3 penalty deductions, 2 for extended lifts, one for a fall.

I can see them beating Ralph & Hill, though, provided they are recovered from any injuries.

Thanks, doris[/I]...(Gads , I hope I get my 'puter bumped up before 4CC )...

2 of my fervent wishes for Canadians.. a change of costume for P/I's FD..and that W/P can have done something to improve the chances for their FD..( not as easy..and too late to go right back to the drawing board after GPF..)

colleen o'neill said:

I'm not making excuses for them ,or secretly rooting for them over W/P, but I am fascinated by them. They've done so much in a short time, I'm always curious to see if ( or how much ) they've improved since the last time I saw them , wondering how long they can keep up that rate of improvement.

I think W/P are better than they've often been given credit for, but think they've shot themselves in the foot with their very generic FD this year.

Edit : Skatingfan - you were posting while I was typing... I completely agree about P/I's chances for worlds... esp. since there's a good likelhood that I/K will get there. Of course that's the situation W/P suffered with the last couple of years..

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My bets are on W/P to grab the last spot on the World team (counting on V/M of course). And not just because the "consensus" is to give them a chance, I think I/P are not there yet, technically. For that matter, I don't think I/K will be on their world team either, i don't think they can beat R/T at the europeans, for me, R/T are on a faster rising pace.

High class problems for us, don't you think ? I don't really remember a time when we could feel that we had four teams we could feel would be worthy of going.

herios , I think you could be right about R/T ( a couple I like very much, if not their FD ) and of course ,if P/I do well enough they could get sent to 4CC.

I believe there are I/K boosters hoping that they can do so well at Euros that they would get the trip to World's, but I don't think R/T will be easy to bypass.

valentine said:

Shae worked with kevin? when?

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When she choreographed his programs of course.

colleen o'neill said:

High class problems for us, don't you think ? I don't really remember a time when we could feel that we had four teams we could feel would be worthy of going.

herios , I think you could be right about R/T ( a couple I like very much, if not their FD ) and of course ,if P/I do well enough they could get sent to 4CC.

I believe there are I/K boosters hoping that they can do so well at Euros that they would get the trip to World's, but I don't think R/T will be easy to bypass.

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Who are those boosters? Were they watching I/K program in comparison with R/T's? I am talking about the FD here especially.
People might get awed by Elena and Nikita elegant presentation, by their upper body posture, ex
pression indeed, lovely. But what counts even more is WHAT THEY DO WAIST DOWN...There they are weaker, slower and their Don Quiote is much simpler choregraphically. R./T have more dancing going on, more difficulty and are much faster.

As far as canadian ice dancing, well, I dreamed about 3 years ago when C/P blasted on the senior tour that we will have 3 top 10 teams in the world...Two years I was dissapointed by W/P who got stuck in the mud, but now I am more than ever convinced that my dream will come true ( fingers crosssed for Tessa).
And if it will, I will enjoy the ride...as long as it lasts, I will stop here, not to get Skategods mad on me

herios, the boosters have been quiet since I/K didn't tear up the GP season like people thought, but they were there. There were a few people ready to ship them the OGM in 2014 based on V/M and D/W's rise. But to be fair, no one expected Riazanova/Tkachenko to have the year they've had - remember, they've only been together a few months more than I/K!

J10 is out, I guess this means Sawyer will probably medal.

silverlake22 said:

J10 is out, I guess this means Sawyer will probably medal.

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It's a shame about Ten, hope this recent surgery allows him to get back on track. He's been struggling with injury for a while.

I do love Shawn, but unfortunately the axel and lutz seem to fail him when he needs them. I think Rogozine has a shot at a medal.

colleen o'neill said:

I think it was Paul who was injured..first reported as back, then clarified as a rib injury that caused pain / reaction in her back as well..

I wouldn't expect them to overtake W/P, but I suspect they've left R/H in their dust ,and will place ahead of them (if she's better ). But I think they did get some good marks at SC, so I'm interested in what the differential will be between them and W/P and C/P, and between them and R/H..and hope everyone is healthy and skates well so that we'll know what that differential means.

For example, I'm not entirely sure what went on with the GW, so I want to see how they do with it at Nationals. IIRC , at SC they recieved a pretty good level on one section, but they had a goof where their blades just glanced, or something - right at the transition between the end of the other section and the beginning of their footwork.

I couldn't see their SD at CoR due to my livestreaming difficulties (%#@&**!) but if they were fighting injury ,I wouldn't consider that result definitive , either. Of course, there is often a strategic element to mid-competition withdrawals , but I wouldn't put theirs down to being only strategic .

I'm not making excuses for them ,or secretly rooting for them over W/P, but I am fascinated by them. They've done so much in a short time, I'm always curious to see if ( or how much ) they've improved since the last time I saw them , wondering how long they can keep up that rate of improvement.

I think W/P are better than they've often been given credit for, but think they've shot themselves in the foot with their very generic FD this year.

Edit : Skatingfan - you were posting while I was typing... I completely agree about P/I's chances for worlds... esp. since there's a good likelhood that I/K will get there. Of course that's the situation W/P suffered with the last couple of years..

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You took the words right out of my mouth, colleen o'neill I agree that W/P are very underappreciated. I can't think of why that would be, but it's been something that has plagued them for years now, IMO. I was so thrilled to see them ahead of C/P in the SD at the GP final because frankly, I have preferred their program over C/P's all season. Perhaps the judges are starting to appreciate W/P a little more now. I also agree that W/P should finish ahead of P/I at nationals barring any unforseen disastrous mistakes. I also think, however, that a healthy P/I could beat them in the FD. I know that its pointless to compare scores from one competition to the next, but while W/P have consistently scored higher than P/I in the SD, their FD scores have all been five or more points short of what P/I scored in the FD at Skate Canada. Now, depending on the judging pannel at nationals, that discrepency could become a factor.

Personally, I'm completely captivated by P/I. I was totally impressed with them at junior worlds last year, but they really hooked me at the beginning of this season. I wasn't surprised by how well they did at Skate Canada because I was lucky enough to see them perform their SD and FD live in the summer. They are really smooth and extremely expressive, and they have a presence that simply doesn't come across on TV. Whether they make it to worlds or not, I think they have a very bright future ahead of them. Above all, I'm totally excited by the depth that we have in Canadian dance. If someone had told me back in 2006 that we would have four teams good enough to be competative at the senior international level, I probably would have laughed. This is just awesome

BTW, I apologze for my dumb question about P/I's junior world eligeability. I guess I was still thinking of the OD, because I completely forgot that the juniors and seniors use different CD's in the SD. There's no chance of P/I, or Ralph/Hill for that matter, going back to junior worlds, so I guess it'll be up to the junior medallists to carry the torch. Canada has, after all, won five junior world ice dance medals in the past six years.