Canadian Nationals Predictions | Page 8 | Golden Skate

Canadian Nationals Predictions

Violet Bliss

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 19, 2010
As I mentioned in the V/M thread, I'm sure Skate Canada had known that Tessa and Scott would not be competing in the Nationals, thus the effort to generate buzz with Chan's 2 quads in the LP and the Chan/Reynolds rivalry. Patrick really should just bring his quads as a surprise instead of announcing it in an arranged tele press conference a week ahead, adding pressure and attracting advanced criticism to himself. He has obligations as the sole headliner and sole defending champion in a rather depleted event.

Kevin could possibly win the SP and but in the LP, Chan does have a 3 fall advantage over Kevin, as much as I hate the use of such statement, due to his superiority in all other elements and program components. Kevin has made great strides in artistry but has also had a lot of difficulties with his jumps in the LP even with successful quads. It just shows how fast Patrick is progressing in competing with quads in his programs. He's compressing a few years of experiences in a few competitions in one season.

However, I do expect and am looking forward to Kevin bringing his skate to a much higher level. It may be his break through year.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Lol in order for Kevin to beat Patrick, Patrick will have to have like 6 falls and Kevin will have to do 6 quads

For sure, about the equivalent of 12 extra quads or falls either way (pick your combination) would be required for Kevin to ever beat Patrick, especialy at Canadians.

Also worth noting too the CSA does not like Kevin in the past. Or maybe they are just fed up with McLeod who also coached Sandhu and Leung to eternal dissapointment. I hope they dont try and push someone to 2nd or even 3rd over him like the past 2 seasons where IMO he was majorly screwed. I would say that is more likely than him ever challenging for 1st though.
 
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Violet Bliss

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 19, 2010
Also worth noting too the CSA does not like Kevin in the past. Or maybe they are just fed up with McLeod who also coached Sandhu and Leung to eternal dissapointment. I hope they dont try and push someone to 2nd or even 3rd over him like the past 2 seasons where IMO he was majorly screwed. I would say that is more likely than him ever challenging for 1st though.

How does one "note" all your declarations here, i.e. CSA does not like Kevin or are fed up, etc? These are opinions stated as facts. Chippeur brought his game at the last Nationals while Reynolds and Ten didn't. I didn't like the fact that Chippeur was sent to the Olympics and possibly Worlds because Reynolds obviously had much greater potential than Chippeur or possibly was, I believed, a better skater by then but he didn't compete well in the Nationals. Chippeur earned his honor to represent Canada and SC wanted to be fair by abiding by the selection criteria. If any SC intervention was involved, it would likely have to do with Chippeur's timely retirement, making way for Reynolds to go to Worlds. I don't see how Reynolds was "screwed". He had an opportunity to make history and he seized it. Good for him. But he has not been able to perform to his ability in major competitions. That's his problem to overcome. No opportunities are taken away from him. He is young and talented and making progress. I look forward to him making his mark as a skater.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
How does one "note" all your declarations here, i.e. CSA does not like Kevin or are fed up, etc? These are opinions stated as facts. Chippeur brought his game at the last Nationals while Reynolds and Ten didn't. I didn't like the fact that Chippeur was sent to the Olympics and possibly Worlds because Reynolds obviously had much greater potential than Chippeur or possibly was, I believed, a better skater by then but he didn't compete well in the Nationals. Chippeur earned his honor to represent Canada and SC wanted to be fair by abiding by the selection criteria. If any SC intervention was involved, it would likely have to do with Chippeur's timely retirement, making way for Reynolds to go to Worlds. I don't see how Reynolds was "screwed". He had an opportunity to make history and he seized it. Good for him. But he has not been able to perform to his ability in major competitions. That's his problem to overcome. No opportunities are taken away from him. He is young and talented and making progress. I look forward to him making his mark as a skater.

Reynolds skated worse in the long program at Four Continents (an INTERNATIONAL event) and got much higher PCS than he got at his own Nationals. Reynolds for 2 years in a row was the ONLY skater whose PCS was lower at Canadians than international events throughout the year, in fact everyone elses was much higher. Reynolds had 2 falls in the SP but his LP should have blown away Chipeur by about 20 points. Chipeur did not really deliver in the LP either, he doubled the 2nd triple axel, leaned forward and might have put his hand down on the 1st, left out a combination, and had other small mistakes. Think what you want but most agree with me, the talk after last years Canadians was what a ridiculous decision to give 2nd place to Chipeur was.. And in 2009 Reynolds was even more majorly screwed.
 
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Violet Bliss

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 19, 2010
PTF, I was very unhappy with SC's decision last year but resigned to the selection criteria as my impression was of the disappointing performances of Reynolds, Swayer, and Ten, my preferred skaters over Chipeur. It was a mess.

I will check out your accounting of events but that will take a little time, especially since the current Nationals is more absorbing of my attention.

eta. My disagreement with SC's decision was compouneded by their previous decisions to keep promising young winners Phaneuf and Sandhu from major competitions, depriving them of valuable experiences.
 
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Nadine

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 3, 2003
I totally disagree with sending Kevin over Vaughn Chipeur last year. Skate Canada made the right decision. And I am emphatic about that because Vaughn Chipeur's jumps are the honest to God B-O-M-B!!!!! Nobody but nobody jumps like that. He's more than a naturally gifted jumper, he's a phenomena. Seriously, when landed, heck even when not landed, lol, they deserve +10 GOE off the scale.

My eyes were literally glued to him at the Olympics. In person they're even more magnificent if that's at all possible.

Yes, I am a fan of Kevin Reynolds first & foremost, but as a fan of this sport above all, I recognize, admire, and acknowledge somebody like Vaughn Chipeur. Kevin's best jumps don't even come close to Vaughn's. And that's the truth.

That said, Kevin has come a looooooooooooooooooong way since last year, and nowadays I'm not so sure, especially with Kevin's dramatically improved presentation, which is out of this world imho. He would have the edge on PCS, but Vaughn would have the edge on TES if both skated cleanly with the same amount & type of jumps. Jmho, of course.
 

Violet Bliss

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 19, 2010
Chipeur was so stiff there was no future in his presentation improvement, at age 25.

Nadine, you admire jumpers but it takes a lot more than jumps to win and Skate Canada's objective should be more than giving jumpers their chances to jump internationally. They need to consider possible placements of Team Canada members, hopefully winning some medals but at least qualifying for more future spots for Canadian skaters. Chipeur did not fit the bill, as much as you adored him. Obviously, judges did not feel the same way you did, understandably, especially with him bombing in his big opportunity on the big stage.

Kevin, on the other hand, showed a lot of potential. He's more of a natural jumper than Chipeur, who muscled through everything. Though Kevin's presentation and other components were seriously lacking, he was young and in progress. Importantly he's not stiff like Chipeur. He could improve his presentation and he did, in a big way. And he is still in progress. With more international competitions, he'd likely improve his consistency, increasing both his TES and PCS.

The results speak for themselves. Chipeur bombed at the Olympics and Kevin proved himself to be the right delegate to Worlds. With Patrick's silver, Team Canada with Kevin in it earned 3 spots in Worlds this year.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Did anybody see this?

http://www.theprovince.com/sports/Reynolds+aims+upset+champ/4124378/story.html

That would be funny, Chan to be upset by Reynolds, hm:eek:

Won't happen, but how can you not love McLeod's bare-knuckled support?

I figured it would be interesting to check our own Nationals thread here to see the views posted about Reynolds vs Chipeur

rain: felt that Reynolds earned the silver with his long, and with that the Olympic spot.

jan: "Big error in sending Chipeur over Reynolds. There is no way Chipuer is 9 points ahead of Reynolds in the PCS. "

scs: "Vaughn's speed was very impressiveas well. I don't think that comes out on tv. Kevin's jumps were spectacular and his artistry has definitely improved, but Vaughn was definitely better. "

london_calling: "To be honest, I really don't like Kevin's skating. I find him to be pretty sloppy overall. He fairly beat Vaughn in the free skate but I'm happy Vaughn came out on top in the end."

billeh: "I totally agree. Reyolds won me over tonight. While I am usually a fan of Chipeur's jumps, his performance just didn't merit the marks he received. It's a head shaker, folks."

luv2skate: "I think Vaughn is the better choice. Yes, Kevin has the quad, but I don't feel that his artistry has improved very much at all, and his basic skating skills are very weak. I think it would be wise for his coaches to work on some of the basics with him, if he wants to take his skating to a world and olympic level. I think Vaughn is a bit more well-rounded, but I do agree that his marks were generous. "

Tigger: Pro-Chipeur

stickle: "Thank goodness Vaughn managed to hang onto second place"

Sk8n Mama: "I'm going to be unpopular for this opinion but, had the decision been in my hands, Kevin would have went to the Olympics instead of Vaughan."

--So relatively split, actually. I'd argue that Kevin lucked out in 2010 that all his quads/triple axels in the free skate were deemed fully rotated. I think most people would've rather that Sawyer got that second spot, actually (or Russell, who seems to have admirers for reasons I don't get).
 

Nadine

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 3, 2003
Chipeur was so stiff there was no future in his presentation improvement, at age 25.

Nadine, you admire jumpers but it takes a lot more than jumps to win and Skate Canada's objective should be more than giving jumpers their chances to jump internationally. They need to consider possible placements of Team Canada members, hopefully winning some medals but at least qualifying for more future spots for Canadian skaters. Chipeur did not fit the bill, as much as you adored him. Obviously, judges did not feel the same way you did, understandably, especially with him bombing in his big opportunity on the big stage.

Kevin, on the other hand, showed a lot of potential. He's more of a natural jumper than Chipeur, who muscled through everything. Though Kevin's presentation and other components were seriously lacking, he was young and in progress. Importantly he's not stiff like Chipeur. He could improve his presentation and he did, in a big way. And he is still in progress. With more international competitions, he'd likely improve his consistency, increasing both his TES and PCS.

The results speak for themselves. Chipeur bombed at the Olympics and Kevin proved himself to be the right delegate to Worlds. With Patrick's silver, Team Canada with Kevin in it earned 3 spots in Worlds this year.


We will have to agree to disagree. And, yes, I do admire jumpers, but there has to be more there to make me a fan. For one, Vaughn Chipeur is way more than a jumper. His bluesy number fit him like a glove last year, as did his speed, he could skate circles around Kevin in that department as well. Number two, he does not muscle his jumps, he's a natural, something Kevin isn't, and this coming from a big Kevin fan.

Anyhow, Vaughn has retired now, and I wish him well, as I do Kevin. It was a joy to watch Vaughn at the 2010 Olympics, where he earned his spot on the team. I will miss seeing his natural jumping ability and his flow & speed across the ice.

Here's hoping Kevin can one day jump as impressively as Vaughn, and also earn a spot to the next Olympics.

:) GOOOOOOOOOOOOO KEVIN & VAUGHN!!!!! :)

p.s. and your favorite, Patrick. ;)
 

Nadine

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 3, 2003
Lol, yes, I know what you mean. I could at least always count on Zhenya. :)

But seriously that's not what it's about for me. I've been watching this much loved sport since the 70's, about 35+ years, and I've seen plenty come & go, some fall by the wayside, others go on to much success. But it's the joy they've given me as a mere spectator that I appreciate. They do this for a living, I watch it for fun, therefore I respect each & every one, no matter their accomplishments. After all they are the ones that put in all the hard work day after day after day ad infinitum, whereas we are just mere spectators enjoying what they make look easy when it's not.

Therefore, I respect them all, not just the mere few that you see on t.v. It's not always about medals. I wish them all well.
 

callalily

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 11, 2005
...I respect each & every one, no matter their accomplishments. After all they are the ones that put in all the hard work day after day after day ad infinitum, whereas we are just mere spectators enjoying what they make look easy when it's not.

Therefore, I respect them all, not just the mere few that you see on t.v. It's not always about medals. I wish them all well.

Well said!
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I totally disagree with sending Kevin over Vaughn Chipeur last year. Skate Canada made the right decision. And I am emphatic about that because Vaughn Chipeur's jumps are the honest to God B-O-M-B!!!!! Nobody but nobody jumps like that. He's more than a naturally gifted jumper, he's a phenomena. Seriously, when landed, heck even when not landed, lol, they deserve +10 GOE off the scale.

My eyes were literally glued to him at the Olympics. In person they're even more magnificent if that's at all possible.

Yes, I am a fan of Kevin Reynolds first & foremost, but as a fan of this sport above all, I recognize, admire, and acknowledge somebody like Vaughn Chipeur. Kevin's best jumps don't even come close to Vaughn's. And that's the truth.

That said, Kevin has come a looooooooooooooooooong way since last year, and nowadays I'm not so sure, especially with Kevin's dramatically improved presentation, which is out of this world imho. He would have the edge on PCS, but Vaughn would have the edge on TES if both skated cleanly with the same amount & type of jumps. Jmho, of course.

Sorry but the huge difference in base value with the extra quads and quad combinations is worth far more than the GOE difference. Chipeur with the amplitude he had on his jumps should have been training quads but wasnt for some reason. And his jumps while good when landed are very inconsistent of course.
 

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
I would have preferred Kevin to get the spot over Vaughn for last year's Olympics, but Skate Canada said the team would depend solely on Nationals and Vaughn did skate better than Kevin at Nationals, so it's only fair that he went (even though I don't particularly like him). In my dreams it would have been Shawn going instead of either of them. It's too bad he didn't skate like he did at Skate America or the 4CC FS at Nats.
 

oakl0008

Rinkside
Joined
Aug 19, 2009
Hi blue_idealist and Siberia82. I agree with you both and who I would have liked to see there. I have just realized that I am REALLY sick of watching Men's FS at Canadians and then feeling like it's Blue Monday all over again. As it's Sawyer's last season (most likely), I want to see him finally make it this time and not just to fizzle out at worlds, to wow the crowd there too. He needs more of a skating future than CSOI because he seems to skate, while fun to watch, somewhat gimmicky programs and I wis he would bring his competitive artistry to his show skating (the Tangos, Amadeus, Alice in Wonderland just to name a few).

I just read a recent Michael Slipchuk article where Sawyer's name was mentioned as an actual possibility to go to Worlds and that's the first time I heard that as an actual quote from him. There always seems to be a young guy that goes all out to snatch the spot away so after 5 years I really have my doubts but with J10 out and other names out of Nationals which leaves room for other skaters to be talked about, this is his opportunity. And unlike the other young guys here, there's no "maybe next year" for this guy. With this years circumstances and the two wonderful programs he has, the time is now for Sawyer as his window of opportunity is drawing to a close.

Again, I have my doubts, just wishful thinking on my part.
 

Violet Bliss

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 19, 2010
Shawn really is a very special, very unique and artistic skater. However, his extreme flexibility, which contributes so much to his skating, also hinders his jumps. So I don't expect him to win a Worlds title but he can definitely place high if he brings his best. He has a very good opportunity to be on Team Canada this year and I hope he will be very happy with his decision to stay competitive this year. Additional kudos to his choreographing his own program. It's really wonderful and I look forward to him performing it in its and his full glory.

eta Reynolds, Chan already have one eye on Sochi - part of the spin and fluff for the Nationals. The title sounds like two of them have just one eye. :biggrin:

Post-Olympic year opens doors in Victoria

I linked this in the Chan thread in The Edge but it should be good here too:

Patrick Chan expects tough competition
 
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lise

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
For the World team, Patrick and Kevin are 1-2 no matter what. The third spot can go to anyone and I'm hoping that either Joey Russell or Elije Balde get the nod (more so for the latter). Although I like Shawn, his time has gone and past. We need to focus on the future and without a sonsistent triple axel or even a quad, Shawn is really taking himself out of contention. He's been inconsistent most of his career and I think CSOI and coaching are probably his only future in terms of where skating is. With a lack of international success and no national championship under his belt, his options are really limited.

In the ladies, my gut tells me it's Cynthia. She's an inspiration to a lot of young ladies out there and SC adores her. She is ranked 5th in the world and has had decent results all season.

Amelie Lacoste will win silver. I have no doubts as she is as inconsistent as Cynthia but does not have the same quality to her skating as Cynthia.

Wild card for bronze but I think Kate Charbonneau has a really good shot at it. I love Myriam Samson and Adriana DeSanctis, but just like the men's spots, Kate needs more assignments to get more consistent results.

For pairs, Moores-Towers and Moskovitch, Lawrence and Swiegers and Duhamel and Radford.

Dance, this is tough but Weaver and Poje for the gold, Crone and Poirier for silver and bronze i have no clue. The race for 1-2 will be tight but Weaver/Poje are my sentimental faves.
 
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